Handicapper Tips & Picks

As noted in previous analysis, trainer L. Powell off to a COLD start (4% win/12%ITM) at DMR but now horses making a second start of the meet could be the time to see things turn around and get ahead on the trend before it becomes a stat. Following that projection, #6 CARO BUONO comes back in a second start of the meet and of their cycle wheeling back under similar conditions from the 7/19 event, a B- OptixGRADE making an inside/SAVED BURST. In addition, they hold solid juvenile numbers and buried, "hidden" positive form (lack of Red) despite the finishing position when looking through OptixGRID at the OptixNOTES/KEYWORDS as well as Grades in graded stakes races. They recorded a B OptixGRADE in the DMR Juv. Turf (G3) making their local debut last September and not a "one off" noting the B- TROUBLE trip and BLANKET finish in the DeMille (G3) last November as well as a B OptixGRADE (winning effort for the level) finishing in a BLANKET in the Pasadena stakes in February. 

The Projection for #6 ELSA DUTTON returning to TURF is a positive with the surface switch from the main track for this race. The TURF Projection in OptixNOTES/KEYWORD has been present since their third start noting they began their career on the grass, however outclassed in those two MSW events playing a bigger role in outcome than surface. 

#5 FARMER TOM recorded a B OptixGRADE in their solo MCL start, a race at this level and identical par back on 6/7 at SA finishing making a WIDE CLOSE (far outside draw on the day) to finish in a BLANKET at the wire. The post extreme from one to another drawing the rail at LRC on 6/26 only 19-days later could be given some excuse all things considered including the stumble/TROUBLES+ coming out of the gate while back in MSW company. In terms of distance, that should be no issue back at the mile at the right level; going back to the MSW races on the turf two ROUTER KEYWORDS in the OptixNOTES further suggesting this is where they fit. 

LONGSHOT: #2 VISUALLY looking at OptixPLOT there is a "bunching" with the majority of the field in Q1/3 and that checks out with 6 of the 8 in the field sharing the EP runstyle - a "Fire" Contention however paired with a lower-ish 25 SpeedRate. VISUALLY sits alone as a Large Q4 Square requiring racing luck with a trip (and the lower SpeedRate) though brings price compensation along with current and buried form. Some of that form,  are the two starts over this course and distance from last summer both some of their higher career speed figures and competitive efforts with the B- OptixGRADE in both the Daisycutter stakes and the 8/29 higher level allowance. Both of those events (and the two recent turf sprints at SA) held a race par much higher than what they face today and given an upgrade on that front, an edge that might not be as "obvious" to the public. 

#10 FINE IRISH MORNING wheels back for a second start and off a BTL/B- debut effort last month at LRC. Their trip began GREEN and at the break with a TROUBLE_S and from there held up (TACTIC-) not asked to show their best and still put in a sneaky NO_PUSH CLOSE which arguably could have seen them with a better outcome than 5th -- represented with the higher B- OptixGRADE.