Handicapper Tips & Picks

Tough to see both of the J. Sadler runners holding 8-1 in the field as they sit as contenders and the only two in the field ABOVE in all OptixEQ SPEED/PLOT/CLASS categories. #8 FLAMBOYANT arguably should be, and could be favored, with consistent speed figures despite the recent outcome and off the board in MSW has consistently recorded B- OptixGRADES as well.

#9 MIGHTY TORO is upgraded all around and plenty of upside while likely sitting on a peak effort. They have shown progression with each start and given a follow closing out 2025 with a TROUBLE trip racing X_BIAS in the 10/30 DMR MSW event. They returned from the layoff in the first part of the meet, 7/18, first start as a 3yo - a subtle flow upgrade FTQ while part of a Very Fast early (and Fast late) race dynamic. 

LONGSHOT: #11 SEXY BLUE should be overlooked given their connections and recent running lines. With that said, the change in class is massive (CLASS ABOVE) and in terms of those recent races form cycle and trip come into play where some "excuses" follow. The two efforts from 5/10 and 6/13 fit right on par for today's race - the dirtied form follows with the next two races: 6/21 LRC start was just one week later and had TACTIC-  with the OptixEQ extended comment from that race "on hold rating inside showing run in spots unable to show their best with trip" that race was followed up with a 39-day "first off" freshening on 7/30 while racing with a much higher OFR/Par while in against open $25k claiming company and notable trip there on OptixNOTES - WARM GATE (restless, heavily washed out) had a TROUBLE_S at the break racing WIDE and NO_PUSH. 

Number wise #1 OM TIME GAL is a touch on the lighter side though the 5/30 figure is within today's par. Going back to the debut through the 7/25 recent start have the pattern of SLOG/TROUBLE_S something to consider with the rail draw here and required trip. Trip has played a role in outcome (and to some degree reflected in speed figure) while visually showing run many CLOSE OptixNOTES KEYWORDS in the GRID including the 7/25 effort making an X_WIDE MOVE as well. 

#5 STYLISHLYACCLAIMED fits well at this level and intent to run at DMR noting a Vet Scratch on 7/25 under similar conditions with E. Jaramillo named. They have run well at DMR breaking their maiden over the course and route distance off a very long layoff in a second start and since coming back this year projected to IMPROVE off the TROUBLE trip on 4/4 and did just that with a change in runstyle DUEL through a Very Fast early/late pace, flow upgrade from 5/9. 

#10 VENTRY STRAND held their form and figures at this level while in first time against older on 7/25. Rosario takes over today and finding a rider change after the SLOG TACTIC- trip while showing run B- making a WIDE MOVE and CLOSE "left with too much to do" behind first run winner, Known Idea, and the top three together at the wire. 

#11 CHROMEFLASH was given another chance around two turns in the 7/25 event - fractious in the GATE COVERD making a CLOSE into a competitive B- effort. Their prior two route start in August 2025 subtle flow upgrades while hindered with the outside post in both and layoff lines splitting those races - all things considered tough to hold the distance alone against them. 

 #1 WILL DO ONE made an X_WIDE CLOSE in their debut last month and should carry fitness into this second start. #6 TAKE A PICTURE was competitive B- last month first out at ELP with a subtle trip making a RUSH after a TROUBLE_S and COVER MOVE X_FLOW with the pacesetting winner and top four together and clear at the wire. In terms of the FTS there are no knocks on the Baffert par, have not seem anything from Flight Club and Psalm moving forward.

While #6 MOTORIOUS makes sense in this spot, they are a tougher horse to back at shorter odds with a deep closing runstyle at 5f paired with a higher class level and competitive group. Stablemate #9 SORRENTO SKY at least should present some value looking for their first graded stakes win though a runner in form and throughout their career has recorded some of their higher figures and top efforts over the 5f turf sprint course at DMR. 

#1 MONSTER has 5f turf sprint speed to look to carry from the inside though a tendency to lack finish (Circle) and could come down to how much pace pressure they take from some others in this field. #2 MESCALERO won as the BOS to hold in a BLANKET finish on 7/26 though arguably not their ideal runstyle and could fall into a trip here from the inside with some tactical speed. 

#4 DEAR DIARY for a barn that does not often win first out though capable with the right runner and could be the spot here. She has trained forwardly and given a class test in the morning with older stablemates including Subsanador on 8/13. 

#3 MISS MIDTERM, a little more on the turf side though she can run. The O'Neill pair worked in company from the gate with stablemate rival #7 CONFETTI RAIN on 8/2 and CONFETTI RAIN in front though the drill with the faster time, that appeared by design.

Baffert also with a pair #6 FURIOSITY off the gate works projects to show speed right from the jump; SEA'S NO JOKE has speed overall positive visuals and very race ready. No visuals for #8 LUCILLE B. 

Argentina missing on the big stage earlier this year will have another chance in the Pacific Classic (G1) with the pair of G1 winners (the only stateside G1 winners) in the field #4 SUBSANADOR and #10 FULL SERRANO.

#4 SUBSANADOR fits on their best day and placement after some less than ideal efforts this year suggests some confidence and intent. As far as the 2026 series, the 3/26 effort of the extended 547-day layoff at sprinting 7f distance in the San Carlos (G3) could reasonably be taken as a "prep" while to their credit posted a solid number B- OptixGRADE showing their best late (CLOSE) and strong GALLOP+ out after the wire. That effort and timing was likely intent for the $200k Ouachita Stakes at Oaklawn Park where they found themselves compromised TROUBLE_S at the break lunging and stumbling out from there making a MOVE against the Slow early/late race flow. While no "excuse" coming back three weeks later in the Gold Cup (G2) that might have been a rush to return and not asked for their best or run at all, a NO_PUSH to take the effort and figure lightly as that does not represent them (and also that effort playing a role in Plot position/shape) accurately. 

#10 FULL SERRANO also looking to rebound from Oaklawn back on 3/28 given a legitimate EX/EXCUSE from the TROUBLES+ break and all around BTL effort making a MOVE with ground loss/WIDE as the only runner in the field to make up ground.