Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 DAISY DUKE is interesting in this spot with the changes in connections and picking this spot where they must run for a claiming tag, though not a severe drop. Number wise she will be required to step forward though present some upside off the main track races from last season – adversity and subtle BTL on debut while coming up short as the favorite before validating the backing with the MSW win in the second start and racing X_BIAS in the Debutante. Even the layoff return at WO in October has been productive with a next out winner and others holding form in their next start.

The early pace should be honest for DAISY DUKE while respecting #1 GOLDEN IRISH and flow upgrade from the 11/28 common race though could find a similar dynamic here with others looking to show early speed with a Fire Contention though staying on as the BOS/Speed of the Speed is not out of the question.

That pace could also benefit #10 SQUARE BABY one that comes into this race with figures below par though a lightly raced type that could still present upside and run a new top. The race on 10/24 was a big tell that she does not like to race behind horses and unlucky following that maiden win with the rail draw on 11/24 the race she was claimed out of and shows up from here. 

The early pace should be contentious with new face #10 BIG GAIN landing in this spot though no walkover with #7 ROCKET NIGHT to run with them early and kept honest as #12 CRABTREE forced from the outside and joined by #2 SIR EXTON along the inside with and #6 CHOU CHOU D’AVEN in the middle of the field just as quick early.

That is a lot of names, though a lot of early pace to make the case – that noted pace scenario could present an opportunity for the more established maidens, #3 GREERS FERRY and #5 BIG ANDY MORT with their runstyle. Both return to make a second start this season with BIG ANDY MORT back under similar conditions with a competitive 4^th result making a MOVE X_FLOW. The return race for GREERS FERRY was not as competitive in the 5^th place result though not holding it against them too much as the recorded figure fits with today’s par and has raced into shape the majority of those races hold figures on par.

#9 RUN DEANO RUN did not have much of a chance to do any running with an EX - EXCUSE on debut last month. They have some hurdles with the changes for this race as far as class taking on open, older therefore a higher par with the stretch out and could still be a race out while are certainly capable of showing more - a longshot that could be kept in the mix. 

#3 DIVINE GAL should be sitting on a peak effort in this third start of the cycle and fitness back at the sprint distance from the WIDE trip around two turns last month and overall intent with a return to Oaklawn given the success and higher figures recorded over this course in the first part of last season.

#1 GLORIETTE brings in legitimate early speed for today’s race shape and the rail draw that should present the shortest distance around the track with their runstyle and could present the edge over #5 SPIRIT RULES looking for a similar front end trip. The placement here for GLORIETTE making a return to claiming company could be a further positive and a hesitation in the selections when entered back on 12/27 as far as class a higher N1 allowance.

#6 MISS SHIPMAN has shown some early speed though not a need the lead type and drawn outside that pair along with the change in distance from the course configuration at DED could present a tracking trip for C. Torres to sit close and make first run. 

#8 GETTINBY will get a lot of attention from the speed figure alone coming out of the November CD debut behind future stakes winner, Donut God. The number stands out in this group and one of the higher for AR bred though also showed run with a BTL effort and CLOSE after the SLOG to support the figure and as the favorite here.

#10 DAWN STRATEGY returns to make a belated second start debuting in open company back in late August at PRM – a productive race with the show finisher coming back to break their maiden and the race winner finishing second in a stakes race at TUP. They required time off following the debut based on the break in works on the published tab though has been training consistently since and a solid move from the gate best over their mates on 12/20.

Many of the others showing up here will step up and have some class questions though worth mentioning the EX with legitimate TROUBLE+ for #12 PEA EYE last month and one that is okay drawn outside noting the KICKBACK from the debut – KICKBACK was also noted for #1 VINEY when they debuted earlier this month though more noticeable the placement in against older the lone sophomore in the field of older rivals.

As far as the FTS #13 GIANT MOON is upgraded should they draw in one that has been training well and appears race ready while no knocks on both #5 CAPTAIN HAMAZING and #11 GO GO RO RO FTS that also come into this race well prepared and honest effort can be expected first out. 

The biggest question is the distance for #3 VIVIR CON ALEGRIA to carry their speed as they should be clear early and look to separate with that pace advantage and clear, massive class drop first off the claim for B. Cox.

#2 BEEALEA has a strong late kick and a horse that fits this condition despite being an 8x winner. Their off the pace runstyle has played a role in that recent pattern, coming up short on the win end though has been able to run some of their better race with today’s type of dynamic. Their runstyle is similar to rival #8 CONTRABANDISTA one that was overlooked last out nearly pulling off the upset to settle for place and coming off that outcome projects to be shorter here, shorter of the two and a little more obvious that Polar Expedition winner, Beealea.

The connection there is the natural transition to the McLean Robertson trained #5 BURNING LEAVES one that returns to make their second start of the cycle, a race into shape type that holds a win at a similar conditional claiming level and a lateral change in par and purse from the summer series of CBY races.

#11 GRANADA FLAVOR also can be upgraded in this spot and for their second start of the meet almost willing to draw a line through any horse that ran in the 12/28 race, a race with almost a one hour DELAY and then had the card cancelled after the running due to declining WEATHER conditions.

#2 GOT THUNDER finds a better draw and subtle change in class coming back without a significant drop second off the claim and second of the meet. They turned in a solid effort all things considered and a WIDE trip in a BLANKET finish with the top two in a DH for the win. Their runstyle should fit today’s dynamic, a dynamic that projects to hold an honest early pace in part to stablemate #4 JACKMAN on the change in class and one that has been effective at Oaklawn on or near the lead going back to the string of wins last season – races they require to run back to in order to win as their current form and figures do not cut it.

#3 CHIPOFFTHEOLDBLOCK is far from a string of wins and while winless in 2024 was not completely off form the entire year picking up a place finish in stakes company and finish finishes in contentious allowance races at CNL, races with a higher par and purse that today’s event. Going back to prior seasons has plenty of Oaklawn races to compete at this level and has had success with today’s rider, R. Eramia taking over for the first time in a long time.

The top form, class figures and runstyle for CHIPOFFTHEOLDBLOCK is similar to the current form for #1 BRON AND BROW shipping in for this race and one that has been protected throughout their career and with success in stakes company takes the drop today to run for a claiming tag for the first time. There are some questions with that and likely to see a claim here and perhaps some of the math works out racing in the $100k stakes this season at the FG and today’s $60k purse paired with a $30k tag.

#9 JUNIOR BUG is not always the most consistent on the win end though a consistent check earner and one that could work their way into the number coming back fresh off the layoff. The noted contentious pace is something they often require to develop in front of them and benefits from the potential pace scenario. 

The analysis starts with #7 DISCO BALL currently on a six race win streak showing up here. The recent efforts clearly fit on par though there is just one change today – the race dynamic. DISCO BALL has been able to get away with moderate paces and often a LONE lead, a scenario that does not project “on paper” and will be tested and perhaps  vulnerable with that dynamic.

Rival #4 DEVIL’S TOWER was forced to chase DISCO BALL in the 12/27 common race with the scratches though could fall back into their preferred trip and one that has consistent form including an unofficial four race win streak for this barn last year and a multiple time winner over this Oaklawn course and distance.

#8 NINJA WARRIOR also brings in Oaklawn form for this second start off the layoff and quick turnaround. They have shown early speed and could push the pace in here and perhaps looking for that type of trip making a rider change and the two week timing though being outside of DISCO BALL and outside potential other speeds allow for tracking options.

Perhaps the rider change is a tell with C. Torres landing aboard #12 LOCHMOOR a horse they have been aboard most of their career and most of their success as well. A couple of those wins have come first off the layoff, though also in those races against statebred company and has not been as effective in open company for the limited starts to date and one that could require price compensation in that case and with their deep closing runstyle.

#10 SPANKSTER finds a subtle change returning here with the move to an outer post (subtle change with #1 MACRON to the inside post) and the type of horse that can pop with a big race from time-to-time though and those better efforts can be tougher to predict though part of the reason the connections just keep running and when its their day its their day. 

#2 RISK IT could cycle back to a top effort in this third start of the cycle and change in Plot position, moving from Q3 last month to a Q1 Square here. Their ability to show early speed with finishing ability to track pacesetting (Circle) #5 GO CAPTAIN here.

#7 EGALISE also find a shift in Plot position for this race as they return from the freshening and shorten up in distance. Their runstyle might not necessarily be on the lead returning to 6f and has shown making a CLOSE on debut at 7f and other times in the sophomore season the ability to pass horses – not a one dimensional type.

 #1 PLAUSIBLE DENILE needs a lot in their favor to win, though not without a chance and certainly not without a chance for a share. They have held their own under similar conditions in the past and picked up checks in race shapes with a similar dynamic to today’s – a subtle change from the 12/21 start, their first race off the bench and without blinkers since the maiden days. 

#2 OSBOURNE could find their belated stakes win in this spot and coming back with some confidence off the front running mile win last month. The confidence and fitness could bring some upside and return with speed figure improvement for the one turn distance and even provide pace pressure to #8 BOOTH in terms of trip. The rider change might dissuade the public from OSBOURNE though would not be dismissive as Leparoux has been aboard in the past, and going as far back to their first three starts – in addition was named in the sprint allowance when entered on 12/20 before taking the 12/21 race instead when Leparoux might have already been committed to Dennington on the day.

BOOTH is worth a mention as they return from an EX – EXCUSE in the 12/27 allowance, a trip that likely cost a better position though overall still must show where they fit as the return in this stakes spot and similar class questions for #1 MAJOR BLUE another that is worth a follow in the right spot following a major EX stumbling/TROUBLES+ out of the gate last out.

#7 OF A REVOLTION find a local rider remaining on this circuit and something that gave them a look with Van Dyke making the trip for the lone mount in the Ring the Bell stakes – a contentious event and WIDE trip playing no favors to the outcome though should provide fitness second off here, and another rider that could be dismissed by the public though F. Jara is more than capable - – the connections could be live in the late double.

Class could also be a question for #6 NASTY HABIT though also a sign of confidence returning here off the layoff in stakes company for a barn that has sent out live runners all season and this one comes in with a steady solid worktab from the Miller training base at San Luis Rey. NASTY HABIT has had some setbacks with the layoff lines since their debut, though yet to run a “bad” race and interesting horse all around solid in the digital sale last June though remains with the same owner, different circuit and training. 

#7 GET FROSTY should have no excuses today with the change in class returning to MCL company with current form and figures. The step up last month to MSW was a big hurdle and fell into underlay territory with the public gravitating toward connections. Number wise they have recorded the higher figures with the GP numbers and even running back to the softer number recorded last month, that effort still stacks up with today’s par and group.

#1 LAST GASP moves from one post extreme to the other in this second start off the layoff and can be upgraded from the outside post tracking a Very Fast early and Fast late race shape on 12/27 set by rival #2 SENDING – a race shape that might have flattered #13 COLDASICE making a late move though otherwise a look back in this spot should they drawn in off the AE.

#5 BLUE DAZZLER one that has some positive overall factors with the change in class one that could be taken as a lateral move though still does hold a test against older rivals here. #12 RANGE LIFE recorded a figure on debut that is not quite on the GET FROSTY top figure level though on the higher side of par and on par with the other runners in this field and should provide some value today stepping up against open that might have been lacking on opening day. 

#4 CHOATE was upgraded with the class DROP on 12/20 and finishing in a BLANKET at the wire with adversity in trip has a look right back under similar claiming conditions. The race shape is a subtle change though one that works in their favor as far as runstyle with the Q2/4 Square position paired with the Sun Contention and higher 80 SpeedRate. 

#4 AMAZON QUEEN should be sitting on a peak effort third off and with the class relief. She moved up with the drop to claiming company back in August at CNL, the race before the layoff and before running in the recent N2 OC events. Class is notable going back to prior seasons holding her own speed figure wise in the higher OC events in 2024 though not quite on the level for the top spot and going back to 2023 found the win at the claiming level and similar par they will run at today.