Handicapper Tips & Picks

2-LARK had some good races here last fall but hasn’t been all that competitive so far in 2022. But, he is dropping in class. Meets some in better form but believe that he’ll be tough at this level. 3-OPTION could go off as the favorite because of recent form but those good races have been on turf. Plus, he gets an inexperienced apprentice (1^st race?) in the irons. For those reasons he could be vulnerable. 1-IZZY IN A TIZZY, like the top pair, drops in class. He ran well here in 2020 but has had only intermittent good races since. Still, the drop to the right level could make a big difference.

RACE 1: #2 LARK returns to the main track with class relief for his second start of the season. This will be his third start off the layoff returning in an extreme race shape on August 19^th at Ellis Park and followed up that race with a troubled trip here on September 25^th. The overall effort (B- OptixGRADE) was competitive for the condition along with earning a 67 OptixFIG, a number that sits above today’s 63-57 OptixFIGRANGE. Lark has some tactical speed if necessary along with stamina for today’s route distance, which could be a further edge over others in this field. #1 IZZY IN A TIZZY can project a move forward with the return to maiden claiming company. His two starts over this course and distance from October 2020 stack up on par for today’s race and match his current Canterbury form.

2-RAVE ON faded badly in recent turf starts but think he’ll be able to set a rather pedestrian pace in this race. His two wins, one on turf and the last on dirt, came when he was able to grab an uncontested lead. That could happen again today. 3-LORING PARK does own decent speed but he seems to be better when coming from off the pace. He’s been racing solely against Minnesota breds but he hasn’t finished out of the money since he broke in maiden in August of 2021. His speed figures are among the highest. 1-ULTIMATE IRONY was relatively one-paced in his first start for this barn so they are dropping him to an easier level. Races for red-hot connections. Would expect considerable improvement in his local debut.

RACE 2: Trainer Chris Block did not have #9 BETTER THINK TWICE entered with winning intent back on August 24^th noting the barn also sent out the more fancied, pacesetting winner, Vitale. The rider TACTIC- by Loveberry supported that intention and will return in this race with a rider change back to Orlando Mojica, his win rider over this course back on June 10^th. #1 ULTIMATE IRONY is a logical favorite and projects to be heavily favored in this race. He is tough to knock outside of the expected shorter odds as his form and OptixFIG fit today’s par and going out for a live Rivelli barn. #4 SOUPER FORTUNE carries the most upside from the group of Canterbury shippers. The September 15^th effort can be upgraded racing wide against the race flow. His trip is not only upgraded from last month, but his Run Style is upgraded for today’s projected race shape. In terms of class, this is a lateral move from his races there this season to suggest he can transfer his current form. As far as rivals #3 LORING PARK and #7 DELFT BLUE will step up in class off favorable trip wins at Canterbury in their most recent starts. 

5-ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS might be a bit better on turf but his last win came here, almost exactly a year ago, in a race that was moved from turf to dirt. He’s dropping to the lowest level of his career. He had two terrific drills since shipping in from Colonial. Looks hard to beat. 4-EGOMANIAC is another that hasn’t won in almost a year and another whose last win came on this track. He’s been in good form in recent Indiana races. Could fly by all of them late. 2-KNIEVAL fits well here. Like the unexpected speed he displayed from an outside post in last. He did tire from that effort but that might have been the tightener he needed coming into his local debut.

RACE 3: #2 KNIEVEL brings current form in from Canterbury and a subtle trip over their turf course on September 15^th. His main track form sits in line with his current turf form and should be able to translate those efforts to today’s race. Ingrid Mason sends out the pair of #3 RECKLESSNESS and #4 EGOMANIAC: the two are no strangers to running in the same race. Often the pacesetting role is given to Recklessness in order to assist Egomaniac with the pace he requires for his late run. #5 ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS can compete against today’s group running back to his 2021, October 24^th effort here. As far as that win, he was aided by the race shape and the race flow as the opening ½ and ¾ pace was given a Very Fast race shape coding on OptixEQ. 

#3 IAN GLASS has held his form and OptixFIG this season in Kentucky running in higher OFR races. His RunStyle should suit today’s race shape with tactical speed and finishing ability (Quad I/II Square) that should allow for first run on the pacesetters his stablemate #7 NEVER HAVE I EVER and #6 SMOKING RICHIE. That first run could also present the edge and again first run on the Quad IV pair of #2 GRAY ATTEMPT and #4 RACE DRIVER, late running types. Gray Attempt is preferred over Rivelli stablemate #6 SMOKIN RICHIE based on current form and today’s race shape conditions.

#5 CITY DRIFTER projects to sit a similar trip to rival Ian Glass, a horse he ran against along with Race Driver back on July 23^rd at Ellis Park. Davis will bring him back to Hawthorne for his first start back in 76-days. City Drifter was a vet scratch on September 22^nd at Remington Park from an allowance race. The issue seems minor as City Drifter worked just three days later on September 25^th at Ellis Park and again with the “bullet” move at Keeneland last Sunday, October 2^nd and a removal of the front wraps would be another positive sign. #1 THE CONNECTOR was also a recent vet scratch from a $25k claiming race at Presque Isle on September 19^th. 

Multiple stakes-placed turf sprinter 2-GRAY ATTEMPT might be a little overlooked after two dull efforts but he hopped at the start of both of those races which could have compromised his chances. Got claimed from his last at Colonial. Probably meets easier here. Races for the top connections. Expect him to wake up. 6-SMOKIN RICHIE appears to be the quickest of these. He won five of his 13 races and finished in the money another six times, leading at least most of the way in all those races. They’ll have to catch him today. 3-IAN GLASS has been running well in Indiana and Kentucky since getting claimed in California earlier this year. Finished second in a very tough open claimed at Kentucky Downs in last. He’s quicker than top choice. That could make a difference at this distance.

6-JACK VAN BERG has gotten better with every passing start since getting claimed by this barn. His last start resulted in an 11-length victory. The apparent drop in class seems puzzling but, in reality, this is probably where he belongs on this circuit. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him win and get claimed. 3-FIRERY TALE got claimed back by this barn from last after they lost him at Oaklawn earlier this year. He looks like he should be a top contender in almost all of his races but he hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since September of 2020 and that race came at Belterra. Hard to ignore because of the connections but he could be vulnerable once again. 5-AWESOME FAMILY could be worth another look. His two races since getting claimed by this barn were against tougher rivals. Drops back into a straight claimer for this. He displayed good speed in the past. Could be right there throughout.

RACE 5: #6 JACK VAN BERG will look for back-to-back wins shipping in for Becker. His tactical speed could allow him to control on the front end if necessary or sit back in a stalk-and-pounce role similar to his trip on September 16^th at FanDuel. Trainer Karl Broberg continues to send out live runners that are tough to ignore in this current trend #3 FIRERY TALE representing the barn first off the claim here.

Rodriguez scratched #5 AWESOME FAMILY from a restricted $5k claiming race here on Sunday to run here instead. The class drop from the starter allowance on September 23^rd (opening day) with the quick turnaround suggested positive intent for the second start of the meet improvement. This placement could be too tough, though could be a sign of confidence taking a tougher race with the higher purse -- on his best day Awesome Family has races that make him a contender.

#1 BOOM FIVE THOUSAND is another that has selected races throughout his career to make him competitive in this spot. He won off a similar layoff and race par over this course back on May 21^st. Cook was not the trainer at the time and at this current stand is still looking for the first win though is knocking on the door. 

7-POWER THROUGH beat open company in two of his last three races. He finished second in his only other race at the distance. Speedy gelding keeps Loveberry, who was aboard in both those wins, in the irons. Meets others with speed but he might be able to put them away and pull off a minor surprise. 2-SIMPLE LOGIC has been running well against open company and probably better rivals. He came up just a neck short in a strong starter allowance in his last start. However, he’s had nine races on turf and has yet to finish first. This could be the day he ends that streak but there’s no guarantee. 5-TUFF ATTACK won a tough open allowance in his most recent start and takes on Illinois breds today. However, he’s had only limited drills since his win in June. However, he, like top choice, has three turf wins to his credit. Don’t sell him short. 8-KINGSBURRY ATTACK, stablemate of Tuff Attack, could get an ideal pace ahead of him. Fresh off a maiden victory, expect him to come lying late.

RACE 6: The “Yellow” (caution) PlotFit is assigned for this race along with the Sun Contention and higher 80 SpeedRate to suggest the early pace could be faster than it might appear on paper. This scenario can favor off the pace runners upgrading #3 BUREAU, #5 TUFF ATTACK and #6 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN. #2 SIMPLE LOGIC ran a competitive race under similar statebred allowance conditions here back on June 10^th when finishing in a four horse blanket (including Classofsixtyseven) at the wire. 

Interesting race. Can make a case for and against most members of this field. But landed on 6-SEMINOLE BEACH, though his win in last has to be taken with a grain of salt since he faced only one rival. But, he had also been in good form prior to that race. The distance is well within his wheelhouse. Might be able to Randazzle them. 8-AHEADOFTHEGAME has had eight races so far this year and ran poorly in only one of them. This gelding ran well in his previous local starts. He won his only previous route race by 10 lengths. Figures prominently. 4-THE BLACK STRAT finished third against allowance company in his lone local start. Speedy sort might be able to grab the lead but he does tend to tire late though there’s a good chance the top jock will be able to hold him together. 

RACE 7: #6 SEMINOLE BEACH could still be sitting on peak effort after a workout type run against one other horse on September 20^th at FanDuel. His FanDuel form could get overlooked as a whole and even his race here back on June 17^th when given an early excuse clipping heels into the first turn. #1 PINEDALE also ran in that common allowance race here in June and off the visuals that day, he looked to require class relief. The change will be made for this event returning at the claiming level.

#4 THE BLACK STRAT ran his career best 92 OptixFIG over this course back on May 28^th. He recorded that figure at a higher Optional Claiming ($34k purse) level picking up the show finish. Some positive intent could be in play for these connections returning to this circuit and class relief from the race earlier this year.  

7-IDAWIN could win right back. He got claimed from his last two starts and managed to go to “hot” barns via both claims. He’s been good on and off the early lead. His new barn already won with four of their first nine starters at the meet. Can add another to their total. 3-SWEET CONFUSION is another coming off a win and he just beat better company. He was game in that win, fighting for the lead every step of the way and drawing off late. He could do the same thing today. 10-RAND AND FILE has only the one win to his credit this year but he has been in the hunt in most of his starts. He’s versatile enough to handle any kind of pace. Might be able to share.

RACE 8: Lopez shows up with a pair exiting a common turf sprint race at Belterra Park eight days ago. #10 RANK AND FILE could be overlooked off her Hawthorne main-track record without taking a deeper dive. Each one of those five starts were contested at the higher allowance condition and her efforts stack up on par for today’s claiming race. She showed she fits at today’s restricted claiming condition off the August 17^th race at HS Indy. She will shift back to the main track and six furlong distance to benefit from the added ground and all around form from the turf race last week. Rank and File is positioned as a Large Square in the center of the Plot overlapping with #3 SWEET CONFUSION and should be higher on the board of the pair. 

#1 QUEEN’S MISSION projects to return to her typical front running role today, something she was not allowed to do (TACTIC-) put into a subtle trip by Lezcano on September 29^th. Her presence in that role along with others in this field expect to have the early pace honest and contentious. #7 INDAWIN could be a clever claim for Meraz running right back at this level off the September 24^th win where she still fits this condition on eligibility. With that said, the pace scenario is not nearly as favorable for her run style and could see her vulnerable with today’s projected dynamic and shape shift to a Circle on the Plot.  

#8 SUMMER LOVIN is a longer shot based on her current form especially on the win end. She has back numbers that would make her competitive today and the early contentions should assist her trip (Quad IV Square) making a late run. 

Enough pace in the race for Lark to rate behind and come running at them late.

Those races at Colonial were much tougher than the field Ultimate Irony will face in here. Inside draw means a likely ground-saving trip.

Mason enters two in here and that race has little early pace. Expect this one to rate close and take over late.

A compact, yet very competitive field. There's lot of pace in here. Hoping Ian Glass rates just behind speedy Smokin Richie and wears that one down in the lane.

Broberg excellent in spotting his horses off the claim. Some questions surround the spotting for Jack Van Berg. Try to beat the one today.

Simple Logic has run well against open-company. State-bred move should be enough to win in here. Deora Store a sleeper in turf return.

The last time Aheadofthegame ran around two turns he ran a giant race. Look for him to try to clear from the outside.

Inside draw for a barn that has heated up over the past couple of months.

3 Gaines Hanover 5 Hp Maestro 6 Thewinnertakeall

8 Intothemysticmoon 7 Got Sexy Scars 6 I Love Ongait

2 Speaker Nancy 4 Shanghai Seelster 6 Raptors Won

4 Ciel Bleu 6 Renegade Gypsy 1 Maple Leaf Bound

10 Fear The Crush 7 Sovereign 4 Feel Itinyourhands

7 Miss Rockadali 5 Trafalgar 4 In The Mood

2 Arizona 3 Ivory Hanover 1 Ipanema Hanover

1 So Not Cool 9 Magic Wanda 8 Treasured Tee

1 So Much More 6 Shes Nun Bettor 5 Voelz Delight

7 Tuggingoncredit 2 Twin B Tipster 6 Goodnight Irene