Handicapper Tips & Picks

RACE 1: This is a tricky event where the public could default to #6 QUE PASA MUFASA as she seems the “safer” option in this field recording some of the higher more consistent speed figures in this field. Many in this field recorded their one career win on or near the lead, including Que Pasa Mufasa. That could allow for some early contention and the race won from just off the pace. #7 VOODOO FIRE closed ground to finish in a blanket for the minors behind an open length winner back on September 15^th. Her 72 OptixFIG earned on the day stacks up on par for today’s return to the claiming level and transferring that race to Hawthorne. 

Ron Uchman

Race 1

Someone WILL win this race. I’m guessing that 1-RUNNERS HEAT will be the one. She finished second in last, her local debut. She did get claimed from that race and starts for new connections but does seem like the one to beat. 6-QUE PASA MUFASA threw in a bit of a clunker in last after two good races at Canterbury. She does look like the best of the speed here and she is dropping in class, however. Could bounce back in a big way. 7-VOODOO FIRE probably fits. She hasn’t been in terrible form but hasn’t exactly been competitive. However, she is leaving the Minnesota-bred allowance. Might fare better here.

Race 2

3-TALKTOEACHOTHER could be the best of the speed. He is meeting other with zip but he does seem to be a little quicker. He won easily here this past spring. Recent bullet drill suggests he could be ready to do it again. 7-ALPINE GHOST might be a little short since he’s had only one drill since his last race in July but he should be within striking distance of the early leaders when they turn for home and he might be able to edge by late. 4-COCO BRAVADO has had some success versus better rivals recently but he’ll be far more dangerous with the drop to this level.

Race 3

10-TWOKO BAY had been running competitively in Minnesota-bred stakes races but romped in last when he left the stakes ranks and took on starter allowance company. This field might be slightly better than the one he just beat but think he’ll get a strong pace to run at again. Can repeat. 7-HARD ATTACK, with 10 turf victories, certainly figures. He already has six wins to his credit this year. His barn is consistently hot and his rider is among the top so far this meet. Could be very tough. 5-WHISKEY PLANK hasn’t had nearly as many races or as much success as his rivals but he’s been a pretty consistent competitor in his races on turf. Could sneak in at a great price.

Race 4

3-ALQUANI gets a slight nod. She didn’t show a thing on turf in last and her previous races on dirt weren’t great but this field just came up weak. Her best could be good enough. 5-STACY ATTACK hasn’t raced since June but she’s had some good drills coming into this contest. She finished second here the last time she raced at this level. Can do as well or even better today. 6-MOUDARI just might be the quickest of these. She was totally outgunned at Churchill at this level in last but think she’ll be far more competitive in her local debut.

Race 5

Expecting 7-PURR SEA to bounce back with a big effort. She obviously didn’t take to the lawn in last but she’s back on her favorite surface and back at her preferred distance. The company was suspect and the speed figure generated in 3-WHITE LIE’s last race at Canterbury seems like an aberration but she did win easily and, if that speed figure does happen to be true, she could be returning to Hawthorne as a new and improved version. We’ll see. 8-JETS A GINNIN hasn’t been quite as sharp this year as she was in 2021 but she is still in good form and she always runs well at Hawthorne.

Race 6

The lightly-raced 9-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD could provide a mild upset. The mile and three-sixteenths proved to be too long for her in her last at Colonial but the cut back to a mile and a sixteenth could be perfect. The probable brisk pace of this race could set up for her perfectly. Could go from last to first quickly. If 3-KATIE M’LADY had a couple recent races under her belt, she would likely go off as the overwhelming favorite. However, she is making her first start in nearly a year so enthusiasm for her chances could be a bit tempered. On the other hand, she’s been very good off previous layoffs, she’s been training well, and her barn knows how to bring them back ready. She’s likely to have plenty of up-front company. We’ll see if she’s fit enough to hold them off. 2-LIPLINER is interesting. She’s probably the quickest member of the field and should be able to grab the early lead, possibly compromising Katie’s chances, but she has never raced beyond six furlongs. No idea how long she’ll last but it could be interesting if she gets an unchallenged lead and just lulls her rivals to sleep.

Race 7

The well-traveled 8-LONG WEEKEND could be tough in this spot. He’s been racing at meets with higher purses which could mean that he’s been facing better rivals. Good natural speed will have him in the hunt from the start. Could make a move late to pull away. 4-CARLOS L is hard to figure. He won a $150,000 stakes race at Oaklawn in April of 2021 but showed little in subsequent starts and even pulled up from his last race, a Grade 3 stakes at Gulfstream in April this year. His recent drills have been ok but nothing special. So, is he now back in an allowance to give him a confidence builder or is he here because his connections are just trying to gauge his current ability. 3-DOCTOR OSCAR has been red hot at Canterbury. However, he didn’t show much in his only previous start outside Minnesota. He certainly has the speed to succeed here. Could be a top contender.

Race 8

3-PH FACTOR will have to be caught. He tired on the turf in last and might be better on synthetic tracks but he shouldn’t have too much company on the front end of this race. 9-BRAVO BRAVO, claimed from his last two, takes on a bit better here. But he is in good form and his new barn sports a great win percentage with their first-time claims. 7-MOVE ON OVER, fresh off an Illinois allowance victory, could be tough here. He’s stretching out for this and although he never won at the distance, he did finish second in three of his four starts at similar distances.

RACE 2: #4 COCO BRAVADO could be sitting on a peak effort returning to Hawthorne for Spagnola in this third start of the form cycle. Coco was not asked for his best on September 29th running on hold and dismissed by the public off the 3-1 morning line at Prairie Meadows. His form also stacks up for this N3 claiming level going back to the competitive races in the spring and with Rivera in the saddle. #7 ALPINE GHOST has run his most competitive and consistent races to date here at Hawthorne. He can be upgraded with the circuit switch, the race flow (X_FLOW) on July 14^th at HS Indy, along with the freshening coming back from the 86-day break.

RACE 3: The analysis starts with morning line favorite, #7 HARD ATTACK as he is logical in that role for Broberg checking the boxes for this race. Hard Attack will make his first start of this current form cycle coming off a 31-day break and should benefit from the recovery as he looked a little tired finishing in a blanket for the minors back on September 7^th.

Broberg scratched Hard Attack from a $20k Optional Claiming event on September 17^th at Canterbury and his main threats in this race could come out of that common race. #8 BUDRO TALKING could find the right race shape for his run style. He tends to make his run from off the pace and was taken back and left with too much closing that afternoon. #10 TWOKO BAY was able to benefit from the handling (TACTIC+) and ground saving trip. That 9/17 effort was a new top and seemed well meant for the connections placed where he could win at the closing part of the Canterbury season. As he did record a new top in that form cycle, he could require a “reset” race today and prefer others especially with the expected shorter price. #11 SIERRA HOTEL could also lack value stepping up in class off the PERFECT trip win just 15-days ago in his first start off the claim.

#9 IOYA AGAIN was entered here on September 25^th ($35k OC 8.5f turf) however was unable to compete as a vet scratch that day. The issue seems minor as they worked a half-mile on 9/28 and quickly showing back up in the entries for this race. He was given consideration for that race on opening coming off a race that looked to be a “PREP” on August 25^th at Canterbury. The rider that afternoon took him back off the pace and did not ask for run at the same time the public was not buying that day cold on the board from the 8-1 morning line.

#12 SOUL COAXING will also return from a Canterbury Park race back on September 17^th, though a different event run on the main track and had been entered as MTO on August 25^th. That could suggest a different intention for this race, however giving him another chance on the turf could be work experimenting with as his grass races from back in 2021 were competitive and recorded a solid OptixFIG on the grass back on June 19^th.

Longer-shot runners, #2 JOLTING JOE and #3 DIAMOND DAVE are light on the win end at this condition though showed they can compete for a deeper minor award from the common race at the level here back on June 10^th. 

RACE 4: #1 HALLIE’S RAINBOW could present a pace advantage in this event with her early speed and the rail draw. She could still present upside from her debut and coming back from a 49-day freshening for this race noting a vet scratch on 9/15 from a HS Indy allowance sprint. Trip will be key for morning line favorite, #3 ALQWANI with her run style from off the pace in sprints. Her form and figures from July 10^th and August 4^th stack up strongly on par for this race and can be given a subtle excuse with the ride and trip over the turf on September 4^th. 

RACE 5: Boyce entered #7 PURR SEA along with Cat Attack, the race winner here on September 24^th. The placement for Purr Sea was not ideal going a route of ground and the intention that day was not there as it was for Cat Attack. Things changed for Purr Sea today returning to her preferred conditions, sprinting on the main track. #8 JETS A GINNIN was intimidated with the tight inside trip on September 17^th and looks to rebound returning to Hawthorne along with the change in post position.

#9 MALLOY could present the biggest threat to that pair returning to her top form. She was starting to improve in her form cycle and with the front wraps removed prior to the layoff. An excuse can be provided with the outside draw, slow start, and wide trip against the dynamic on July 2^nd at Churchill Downs as well as the August 7^th race at Ellis Park where there was minimal change in running order from start to finish. 

RACE 6: Boyce could be looking for back-to-back wins and redemption in this race represented again by the pair of #3 KATIE M’LADY and #6 CAT ATTACK. The plan was not necessarily to bring Katie M’Lady back from the layoff in this stakes race. They tried unsuccessfully to run on the turf twice this year at HS Indy with both races moved to the main track. The intention is likely in play for this event overall especially after taking a tough beat last year just getting run down by the favorite after setting the pace throughout. While the intention here is noted, the shorter price is tough to take all things considered and with alternatives in the field. Stablemate, #6 CAT ATTACK presents overall upside and has versatility in terms of her run style to work a trip. The big test for her today is form wheeling back from a top effort just two weeks ago.  

#9 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD is coming into this race the right way as a lightly raced sophomore filly. She broke her maiden over this course with Mojica calling the shots in a professional manner and the visuals suggested she could continue to improve. She has done just that with improving numbers at Colonial Downs in competitive allowance races against older. The rider switch back to Mojica suggests intent overall and the move made after a subtle trip created by Loveberry on September 6^th.

The higher 90 SpeedRate shown on OptixPLOT should assist Trail Ridge Road with today’s race dynamic. That SpeedRate should also benefit #7 KINGSBURY DRIVE and #1 LIZZ A BEE with their late run as Squares from Quad II/IV though in terms of overall class and speed sit on the lower end of par to consider as stronger top contenders.  

RACE 7: #8 LONG WEEKEND sneaks into this condition to race protected with just the one win this year from back in February. Long Weekend holds an edge in recency over #7 WHAT’S UP DUDE and #4 CARLOS L.  Long Weekend also holds a stronger record at today’s sprint distance with speed figure and class consistency on par to present the edge over the returning Robertson runner and morning line favorite. While this will be the Hawthorne debut for Long Weekend, he has shown the ability to transfer his form over the different circuits and that presents the edge over sophomore runner #3 DOCTOR OSCAR shipping in from Canterbury Park where he will be tested to transfer his form here. 

RACE 8: The early pace is projected to be contention (Fire) and honest (high 82 SpeedRate) to set up for a runner from off the pace. That pace scenario as well as the taxing effort two weeks ago could see #9 BRAVO BRAVO vulnerable in today’s dynamic, assigned as the lukewarm 4-1 morning line favorite. 

#1 COWBOYS DREAM could benefit from that pace scenario as well as the class relief in this second start of the form cycle exiting the higher allowance race on September 23^rd.  #5 WILD FOX is neutral in terms of race shape and as a long shot in this race that could get overlooked despite competitive efforts and finishing positions at this level in the past should be mentioned here. Arnett will ship in the pair of #8 IRISH VALOR (Plot upgrade) and #11 END ALL GET ALL on short rest out of Prairie Meadows. End All Get All comes into this race with improving form making his third start of this current form cycle. He has back numbers that make him competitive on his best day and picks up a live local rider with Orlando Mojica aboard. 

A truly dreadful race to handicap. Any horse can win, any horse can finish last. I'm hoping there's a contested pace that falls apart and Voodoo Fire runs by them all late.

Equally as dreadful as the opener. Again, enough pace to chase after but very little in consistent form in here. Taketoeachother could wire the field but hoping Coco Bravado runs them all down.

So much early speed in a field that has a lot of ability. The top contenders all drew outside. Hard Attack should be able to tuck in a rally late, if not left with too much ground to make up in the lane.

The last race on the turf from Alqwani was bad. This race is on the dirt though and the dirt figures blow this field away.

White Lies scares me so much because for so long I watched a mix of good and bad races from her on the grass. Since turning to the dirt it's like she's a different horse. Her last figure was huge, the question is if she bounces or can repeat that performance.

Pace makes the race and Cat Attack is the fastest in here.  With Katie M'Lady coming off a year rest I cannot endorse her. Cat Attack already has a win over this course this meet. She can win right back.

This is a very good race with a lot of very talented horses.  Recent form for most though hasn't been great. Although Minnesota-bred, Doctor Oscar has faced the best in that state and held his own. Let's see how he runs here.

For a large field at a route, it appears almost every horse may want the lead in here. One of the few who should sit back early and run late is Cowboys Dream. Just hoping he doesn't race into traffic trouble.

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