Handicapper Tips & Picks

RACE 1: It is worth looking outside the obvious and for value in this race as there are some knocks with the morning line favorites. The nine-year-old mare #4 ASHLEY ELIZABETH has races that would make her tough to beat on the front end, however, the recent double long layoff lines create major reservations especially at a short price. #7 FOGGY KITTEN also projects to receive public support coming off an open length win and solid speed figure on September 20^th at FanDuel. In that race, she only met three others made an “easy lead” while “lone” on the lead and overall visuals suggest some potentially regression off that effort.

In terms of alternatives: #8 SUMMER LOVE has back numbers that stack up strongly in this event as well as her July 17^th Canterbury OptixFIG. She has been given a 42-day freshening for this meet and finds subtle class relief in today’s race from her races this year in higher OFR events and could hold a hidden class edge into this race #1 HOPPESTRY does not hold any class or speed edge, though does bring in current form and her run style could land a favorable trip in this event as shown on OptixPLOT. Hoppestry lands in a similar position and shape to #5 TIME BREAK one that could find the right trip as well. Form is a concern noting the taxing (HARD OptixNOTE) with the August 30^th FanDuel win followed up with a vet scratch from a $3200b claiming race on September 17th. 

Ron Uchman

Race 1

6-IRISH HALO was racing prominently in last when she bumped the rail and dumped her rider. Both were okay after the race. Now, she’s dropping in class, turning back in distance, and moving back to the main track. She finished second by a head in her previous start, facing rivals like these. Could bounce back (no pun intended). 7-FOGGY KITTEN won her last two starts, leading most of the way in both. Probably meets better here but current form suggests that she could be the one to beat. 4-ASHLEY ELIZABETH reeled off three straight wins last summer/fall between Fanduel and here. She had only one start since, a fourth-place finish in May. We know she’s quick and she has had some success off layoffs but she might need an easy lead to score.

Race 2

10-LAWMAKER faded late in all of his races but this could be the easiest field he has yet to meet. Plus, he’s been gelded (really, no wisecracks please), and he’s turning back to a sprint. There are many in here possessing speed and he doesn’t really seem to be that quick but there is a good possibility that he’ll lead this all the way. 4-MAGIC MONDAY showed little in his turf debut but he was making his first start in seven months. It’s been another three months since that race but he has been training well. Expect a stronger effort today. 1-INSIDE THE CIRCLE is the sleeper here. He’s making his 17^th start as a maiden but he has finished in the money 12 times, including both of his turf races.

Race 3

2-HATCHET CREEK will not be a popular choice, with good reason. He has been in awful form. However, he was claimed back by Dino Dizeo from last. He was running well for this barn prior to getting claimed away. There is a possibility that he’ll wake back up now that he’s back in this barn. I hate runners like 10-BIG PINES SANDY. He’s in the midst of a great year in which he’s earned nearly $50,000. Now he’s dropping to the $4,000 claiming level. It’s true he raced primarily against Iowa breds and he never raced outside of Iowa but this dramatic drop seems a little strange. On the other hand, this barn spots them where they have the best chance. Wouldn’t surprise me. 8-W W KAN DO finished third in both races this meet and finished in the money in his three races prior. Could grab a share once again.

Race 4

2-YAK won two in a row prior to last when they tried him on the lawn. He was claimed from that last race, drops in class for his new barn, and returns to the main track. Would seem to be the best of these. 7-LASTFORTINOFAMILY generally does well on this track. He finished first in two of his last three downstate, DQ’d from one of them, so comes back north in good form. He should be a major player. 10-TALESOFTHETALL came up just a half-length short in his first start of the meet. He raced closer to the pace than his normal in that event. A similar scenario today should have him right back in the hunt.

Race 5

8-SIGN OF PEACE finished fourth in a “key” race from which at least two runners came back to win their next start. Races for one of the top barns around. Moves to the lawn. Gets Lasix for the first time. Likely tough at a pretty short price. 3-KATHAAN makes her debut for sharp connections. She’s bred to love the lawn. She’s been training forwardly. Figures at first asking. 7-AVARIE has yet to be a major factor in any of her races but she does seem to be improving with experience. She’ll be racing with blinkers for the first time which could improve her focus. Certainly worth a look.

Race 6

2-DR ANN has been in great form for a long time. She’s one-for-one on this track and she finished out of the money only once in her last nine starts. A good turn of early foot will have her racing right off the early pace. Could edge by late. 4-DELIGHTFUL BREEZE split a pretty good field of allowance runners in her last in Indiana and she had been in great form downstate prior to that win. Like top choice, she has finished out of the money only once in her last nine races. Might be meeting a big easier here than she did in last. Figures prominently. 3-LONG TALL WOMAN is yet another in good form and should be considered. However, she was claimed from last and there’s no guarantee that she’ll have the same kind of success for her new connections.

Race 7

8-LOCAMOTOR waited until August to make his first start of the year but has been sharp in his two races since. He finished second in his first start and went on to win last. Those races were at Fanduel but he just narrowly missed in a stakes race at AP last year. Tractable sort is comfortable on or off the pace though probably at his best on the lead. 5-MEGAN’S HONOR couldn’t handle the tough W W Cookie Monster in last but that race, only his second of the year, was one of the few poor races of his career. His last eight races resulted in four wins and three seconds. Good speed has him right at the rear of the probable speed runners. He could be tough off the layoff. 7-W W HOTSHOT certainly figures. He’s done well since getting claimed by this barn, with a win and a close second from three starts. Like so many of his rivals, he’s been good on or off the lead. He could be the one.

Race 8

3-GLOBAL EMPIRE drops and turns back in distance. 6-FRISCO LINE meets easier. He finished far back in his first start for this barn but should be very tough with the drop to face this group. Had a couple good races downstate leading up to this start. Should finish full of run. 5-TAPIT SAM drops from Minnesota-bred allowance company. He wasn’t competitive against that group but had been displaying very good speed as a maiden. Could be tough if he gets sent.

RACE 2: #6 BALADINE showed some early speed and overall try in his September 13^th debut at Kentucky Downs. Emigh was aboard for that race and familiar with this gelding could assist in this second start and shift to Hawthorne. #4 MAGIC MONDAY made his first couple of starts locally and now carries turf sprint experience returning to this circuit. He must pick it up with softer figures to date though is still a lightly raced type for more reliable connections. The layoff lines that have split each race must be noted, though does come into this race with a steady work tab and seems well-meant. #7 LAWMAKER has some of the higher recorded speed figures and will find class relief, a softer OFR from his maiden claiming turf races this summer. Those factors should allow for him his best chance to compete today, though the lack of finish in his races is well-documented and something to factor in with the number on the board. #11 SENOR MIKE is worth inclusion as a new face in this field and as one that had some intent to run here at Hawthorne training over this course last year and returning today to make his belated debut. 

#6 GOLDENPENCE was scratched from a restricted $5k claiming race on September 24^th and landed here in a slightly softer spot. He was given a longshot look opening week especially with the August 12^th race sitting on top of the past performance. That day he was taken back and not asked to run, allowed to gallop under a hold throughout. Goldenpence spent the early part of the spring Hawthorne season running at a higher starter allowance condition before dropping to this restricted $5k claiming condition on June 4^th. The route distance could have played against him as well as setting a fast early pace as there was some intent noting he was bet down to 5-2 from the 6-1 morning line. He has been given a break to recover and with a couple of local works and the noted recent scratch he could be well-intended today. #2 HATCHET CREEK also holds Hawthorne form and reclaimed back on September 7^th by DiZeo suggests intent for this meet. The connections had him entered at this condition here on October 1^st and scratched perhaps with this race run at 6f rather than last Saturday at 5.5f.

#6 STORMIN HONGKONG has been given time to recover from the stumble at the start on August 24^th. He has races that stack up at this level to make competitive and should be given a mention should he sneak away on the board. Some price compensation is required with his off the pace run style. That same consideration should be factored for #10 BIG PINES DADDY one that could get a lot of attention racing for Broberg, a hot barn this meet. Big Pines Daddy is also a closer and making his debut against open company stepping up in class after a pair of top efforts against statebred rivals at Prairie Meadows. The same class consideration in play for #9 REDNECKERTHANYOU one that could be upgraded of the pair facing open company on October 2^nd and has shown early sprint speed. 

#2 YAK peaked in his form cycle after pairing wins and speed figures in August at Canterbury Park. He had been given the 31-day freshening first off the Broberg claim, along with the return to the main track off a wide turf trip last month.

#3 IRISH MAJOR wheels right back once again and off a subtle trip on September 30^th when allowed to give up early position and left with too much to do late. The right handling could find the right trip in today’s dynamic and running back on short rest and ability to hold his form at this level was shown earlier this year. #10 TALLESTOFTHETALL will also wheel back from the September 30^th common race and place finish that afternoon – likely to be shorter of this pair as a result. The dynamic and post position could create some hurdles along with the quick turnaround for this individual. He has a habit of breaking slow and drawing outside could have him caught wide looking for early recovery or forced to drop back and take himself further out of his preferred run style.

#1 EMOJI GUY ran against the turf profile on opening day (9/23) and will find class relief from that event as he makes his second start of the meet. Some further intent could be in play as a rider change will be made as Taveres will take over from apprentice rider, Pena. 

Chris Block has sent out two debuting Special Weight fillies on the turf this year, both first out winners and #3 KATHAAN will look to be the third. The barn will also be represented by #10 PRADA’S MIRACLE one that was intended for the turf, unable to draw into a $30k maiden claiming event on September 8^th at HS Indy where class will be the test here on the Special Weight rise.

Second time starter #1 PERFECTLY PROUD showed a lot of run on debut (B OptixGRADE) after breaking slow and moving extremely wide off the turf down the center of the track for place behind a perfect ground saving trip winner back in January. She has the circuit switch; class change and the layoff to overcome today. Rival #8 SIGN OF PEACE will also return to make her second start back off a long, 297-day layoff. She earned a strong figure for her December 16^th Turfway Park debut and the race itself has been hit or miss with horses either running very well or very poor out of that race. The rider assignment is also noted with Jane Elliot in the saddle making her first start on this circuit. She has had a few mounts at HS Indy this season and has shown some weaknesses, which could require Sign of Peace to be a runner to compensate. 

RACE 6: #4 DELIGHTFUL BREEZE could be sitting on her peak effort to hold a winning and pace advantage. She projects to be joined in the early stages by #6 TIZ HOPPIN one that could show regression from the September 17^th win where she was all out to hold late despite how the running line and finishing position appears. Should others join the early fray and contest the pace with the OptixPLOT “Sun” Contention, #2 DR. ANN could take advantage with a stalk-and-pounce trip shown as a Large Square (finishing ability) in the center of the Plot.  

RACE 7: #5 MEGAN’S HONOR was given an EX – EXCUSE on June 28^th as he was unprepared at the start and not asked for his best with a wide trip behind his stablemate odds-on winner, W W Cookie Monster with Santiago aboard. Santiago picks up the call on Megan’s Honor today as he returns to Hawthorne. He has a solid local record with OptixFIG in OFR and along with class showing competitive races at the allowance condition. Looking for knocks, the double layoff lines are a general concern, and he must run for the tag to compete in this race. Even though he will run for a tag, there is no real class drop as a negative and more the case at this time late in his 5yo season to place him where he can compete. #9 MKAR THE FAST has shown improvement this season as a four-year-old and holds buried Hawthorne form at this condition from late last season that makes him competitive. His ability to run from off the pace could also be aided in today’s race shape with the “Fire” Contention rating shown by the “crowded” Quad I on OptixPLOT. #7 W W HOTSHOT could lack value if favored in this race due to the timing of this event returning in just 15-days for a horse that tends to require more time between starts to record a top effort. 

#7 DARE GOES DA DEVIL was not asked for his best returning from the 86-day layoff to this condition on September 25^th and might have been “given” the race with Perez also entering the pacesetting eventual winner, Irish Tuff. Dare was dismissed off the 9-2 morning line along with the ride and some intent could be present for this race wheeling right back in two weeks for this second start off the layoff. His form from earlier this year stacks up at this N2 claiming level, especially the June 4^th race, a troubled trip and all around “BTL” effort that would see him competitive under similar conditions. #2 VALLEY VISTA also returning from the common race on September 25^th and has N2 form along with Mojica that fit today’s conditions though should be more “obvious” of the two and not necessarily holding any edge of the pair.

#10 READTHETRANSCRIPT was racing above condition at the N3 level on September 24^th at FanDuel. His prior effort and 77 OptixFIG from HS Indy on September 14^th when running at the higher N2 $15k level stacks up strongly for today’s race par.

#6 FRISCO LINE was bet down from his 10-1 morning line at Churchill Downs just 11-days ago where it appears more was expected on the day. The in-running was a lot more physical in nature and could have played a role in the outcome. With that said, the physical nature of the race should be factored in, coming back on very short rest where those types of races can require recovery time. 

There's a decent amount of early speed in here but I'm also not confident that any of the closers can run on late to win. I'll go with the proven winner as Foggy Kitten has 10 career scores.

The distance was the one concern here for my top selection. The only clunker came in a turf sprint for Lawmaker but that was also his career debut. He has a great turf rider in Baird aboard and the outside draw is preferred in turf sprints over this course.

This is a big class drop and one you don't often see from this barn. At the same time, Big Pines Sandy has earned his share over the summer in Iowa. The move here looks to be a drop, win and a claim.

Carte Blanche has been a different horse this year, running closer to the early pace but not needing the lead to win. Expect a stalking trip in here. At a price, you can't overlook 7 victories at Hawthorne from Antrim's Giant.

Three career starts over the turf was the deciding factor for me in selecting Avarie. She improved in her last and looks to rate a bit closer early in a race that is lacking early pace.

Dr. Ann ran a big race here in the spring against a quality bunch.  She didn't miss a beat in a pair of starts at Colonial this summer. Look for her to sit just off the early pace and get the jump on the closers.

With a good amount of speed in this race, the stalking trip may be the winning trip. Megan's Honor was very good last year, running first or second in all six starts. Only two starts this year is a concern but the horse isn't taking a class plunge so have to think he is ready to roll.

Not a huge fan on anyone in here but there may be some value to be had.  Shanghai Silver looks to get enough pace to chase. Baird has been riding well of late. Maybe everything lines up for a victory!