Handicapper Tips & Picks

Only a head separated 1-FIELD DAISEY and 4-DAMARITA at the finish of last and the winner of that race went on to win her next start. With somewhat similar running styles, both will be tracking what promises to be a fairly contested pace. Samarita has been in better form this year but Field Daisey might have been meeting better. Tough call. 6-GHAALEB’S DOMAIN might be the best of the speed in this race but she has been stopping pretty badly in her races except when she doesn’t. Blinkers on today could make the difference.

The analysis starts with the pace and with the potential pacesetters. #6 GHAALEB’S DREAM had gate issues before getting sent into the lead from the rail on September 6^th at Fan Duel. She will return here in for the tag and with the blinkers on. This equipment change has been effective move for Becker, though some concern as to why they were not added earlier in her career. She will be forced to keep up with #5 SNOOTY; one that could have been the controlling speed here on September 23^rd though Emigh gave up that advantage (TACTIC-) taking hold and keeping the stalkers close and was able to get run down late. With a more aggressive ride, Snooty should hold the pace advantage of this pair, though both should create early Contention (Quad I) and can lack (Circle) finish. #2 CAIRO SUMMER benefit from a softer race “flow” winning on September 23^rd and will be stepping up in class (#7 WITCHING also stepping up in class off a slight set up win on 9/20) off that win and does not hold the same sprint speed as Snooty and Ghaaleb’s Dream.

#4 SAMARITA could hold upside as she makes her second start of the meet. Going back to opening day, September 23^rd, she was very cold on the board and did not seem race ready off her paddock visuals and that continued as she was restless in the gate. She returns to this condition (trainer scratch from a turf event on 10/2) with Baird the rider named for the scratch earlier this month to suggest positive intent today. #1 FIELD DAISY finished alongside Samarita and Snooty in the blanket for minors to make her a fit back at this condition. #3 SENORITA AURORA on the slower ploddy side to make a strong contender case for, though capable of some finishing position improvement today. 

RACE 2: #3 MY BROTHER CAM looked to be given (OptixNOTES PREP) the October 2^nd turf sprint making his first start on this circuit and returning from a slight break of 44-days. He should move up today returning to the route distance and claiming level where he fits on par. #4 FORWARD CURVE was entered though unable to draw into the opening day, September 23^rd race at this level and the placement here shows positive intent. #7 MYSTIFIER returns from that September 23^rd event with a subtle trip to IMPROVE off of and fits today’s race shape according to Plot position and shape. The race shape with “Sun” Contention and higher 72 SpeedRate could also upgrade #2 PAPA’S LUCKY SEVEN as the lone Quad IV Square on both Standard and Surface/Distance Plot. He could also step back up returning to the turf and route distance coming off a dominant B+ OptixGRADE maiden win at FanDuel. 

4-FORWARD CURVE ran well in mist of his turf starts, including a wire-to-wire maiden win her in June. He didn’t show a thing when moved back to dirt downstate but figures to be far more effective with the return to the weeds. 5-SON OF GRACE has been racing competitively in Virginia over the summer. He’s been freshened since August but a couple of recent drills should have him back ready to roll despite the move up in claiming price. 7-MYSTIFIER ran into some traffic trouble in his local debut but worked through it and finished fourth, only a length and a half back. Could be a top contender today if he gets a clean trip.

1-RIVSONAROLL has to be caught. He ran out of gas in all of his races but he’s shortening back up to five and a half furlongs and might be able to last the distance, especially with the move into Illinois breds for the first time. 4-FEVER NATION makes his career debut. He’s been training well for hot connections and finds himself in what appears to be an easy field. Can do it at first asking. 3-GULF BENDER, stablemate of top choice, looked awful in his career debut and his works since would seem to suggest he isn’t going to be any better today. However, that last was on turf at Colonial and today he’ll be racing against Illinois breds on the main track. Deserves another chance.

#1 RIVZONAROLL could hold a subtle class edge, dropping out of the open company Special Weight races to run against the statebred company for the first time in his career. His Hawthorne races should be mentioned as Rivelli also sent out the winner of each event, Fit to Fly and China Code, both well-intended first time starters. Rivelli also sends out the filly #3 GULF BENDER to make her second start where she lost her line lugging out before getting eased up in her debut. At the time of this analysis, she has not posted a published work since September 7^th. 

#1 MYSTIC STORM earned a following from the debut effort here on September 23rd and should IMPROVE for this second start with the education. She broke slow (SLOG), raced GREEN and showed a solid late kick (CLOSE) to earn show. Place finisher, #2 LOVEYOULIKECRAZY was given a "longshot" look off a sneaky good debut run at HS Indy. The "longshot" is in quotes as she was bet down from the 20-1 morning line into the second choice in the wagering here on opening day. 

#11 WILMA MANKILLER has a "turf" look to her though has the benefit of experience and intent as she was scratched from that common race on opening day. She will retain Loveberry noting that Emigh was named for the scratch as Loveberry had the call on the other Rivelli runner, Boogie Down Bronx.

First time starter #10 BROKEN HEARTS BAY worked 10.1 at the OBS sale in April and was not fully conditioned at the time. She recorded a "bullet" from the gate here on October 8th though the overall work tab shows some gaps. Fitness with be required giving up recency and to overcome the outside post. #5 SONG OF AMERICA also exits the OBS April Sale working 10.2, a slower and "greener" move on her left lead. She has the benefit of experience and fitness making this second start of the form cycle after setting a solid pace on September 6th at Colonial Downs, that race producing one next out winner. That foundation could assist here though overall must improve.  

1-MYSTIC STORM made up a ton of ground, about 11 lengths, in her career debut to finish third. Can be expected to improve with experience. Not sure there will be an abundance of early pace in this field to set up for a late runner but think she’ll be racing closer to the front today. 2-LOVEYOUIKECRAZY finished about a length in front of top choice in last but had an entirely different kind of trip. She pretty much held the same position throughout, racing only a couple lengths off the led. That could be the winning strategy in this contest. 11-WILMA MANKILLER was well beaten in her two starts in Virginia but this group is likely easier that those she faced in Virginia. Backing the top connections at a price might not be a bad idea.

The remarkably consistent 2-TWIRLING ROSES can win right back. His only bad race in a long time was when he was sent to Kentucky to take on high-priced allowance runners on the lawn but he came back here for last and rewarded his backers with an odds-on victory against rivals similar to these. 9-JACK’S ADVANTAGE wasn’t a match for top choice in last but he was the best of the rest. He’s not as quick as some in here but he does have decent speed which should keep him within striking distance early. 6-TIZ APPROVED and 8-ROMAN PHAROH but enjoy good early speed but they could lock up in a speed duel and the six and a half furlong distance could be too much for either to handle under pressure.

#8 ROMAN PHAROAH could be shorter than the morning line with the public gravitating to his run lines, finishing positions and assigned speed figures. While some of those factors (pace and speed) make him logical in that role, form is another factor all together. Granted he has been given 41-days since pairing wins at Canterbury Park, he projects regression from the September 3^rd race finishing all out on his left lead and drifting out badly through the lane at the same time. Stamina will also be put to the test stretching out from the recent shorter sprints with the projected Contention from #6 TIZ APPROVED to keep them honest up front.

#10 WILD FOX will reunite with Uriel Lopez and has buried surface/distance sprint form from earlier this year against a higher allowance condition. His form at this stater allowance condition is also supported from a competitive race at the starter allowance condition back on April 3^rd.

#9 JACK’S ADVANTAGE has surface/distance experience and should hold his form returning to this starter allowance condition and place finish three weeks ago. The winner of that September 23^rd event, #2 TWIRLING ROSES also returns here looking for back-to-back wins. He was well meant for Rodriguez with the barn picking up a pair of wins on opening day. Twirling Roses fits at this level though does find some additional minor changes with the longer distance and moving to an inner post.

Runners #3 KREWE CHIEF and #5 GIRLOLAMO’GLORY are softer on class and OptixFIG for today’s OFR as far and making a strong contender case for them here though capable for minor awards. 

#2 ACCORDING TO ASPEN could be overlooked from a troubled trip on September 7^th at Canterbury Park. In addition, she holds buried form here at Hawthorne keying off a pair of November races (2020 and 2021) both strong efforts for the level, a level she will return to here. #3 MAD GRACE shares form lines with According to Aspen from the Canterbury Park races this year including the blanket finish at the wire on August 14^th following a compromised start (VSLOG) and trip.

#9 SLIME QUEEN could have been short, returning from a 59-day layoff on September 7^th at Canterbury Park. She has the ability to show tactical speed (Plot upgrade Quad I Square) and also holds form at this level, course and distance going back to last season on November 5^th common race with According to Aspen.

The 85-1 place finish for #7 SEAWARD could have been aided by the rail draw and ground saving trip on September 24^th. That said, she will find class relief from that higher Optional Claiming turf event and if she is able hold and repeat, she stacks up on par today. #8 LEA RO is also given credit for her game win on September 22^nd though will be tested stepping up in class today. 

Not in love with 10-SHABAM but she might be the one to beat. She was totally outgunned in a Minnesota-bred stakes race earlier this year but that race turned out to be far tougher than you would expect with multiple runners from that event going on to win their next start. Most other turf starts for this mare have been competitive. Love the form of 6-UPTOWN QUEEN with wins in five of her last six, including last four. But those races have been on dirt. Although she has had some turf success, her best turf races were against low-level maiden claimers in Florida. Still she has run well on turf and she’s in the best form of anybody in here. 2-ACCORDING TO ASPEN never fired as the very lukewarm favorite of last in Minnesota but she had been in good form prior. Maybe she’ll bounce back with new scenery and an inside post.

#8 PROTONIC POWER wheels right back to make his third start of the form cycle. He was overmatched in the Hawthorne Derby, however turned in a competitive effort at a similar N1X allowance condition at HS Indy back on September 14^th. #3 COWBOYS DREAM could benefit from that pace scenario as well the conditioning in the second start of the form cycle. He entered last weekend, October 8^th, still listed under the trainer Fernando Bahena and could have been a reason for the scratch and re-entered here under new trainer named Jose Rodriguez without an ownership change.

#5 CARTIER CAT will step up in class returning to make his first start of this cycle from the July 21^st win at HS Indy. He could require a start and race to find the right level on this circuit, though his run style should be aided by today’s “Fire” Contention and honest 56 SpeedRate. Those pace factors could present a hurdle for #2 BAYOU BUNNY today as he stretches back out to a route distance. 

2-BAYOU BENNY might not be a standout but he’s been facing some stiff company and holding how own. Many of his rivals in here are turf runners so he should hold the advantage for that fact alone. 3-COWBOY’S DREAM is another in good form. He won two races here in the spring and just finished third in his first race back off the layoff. Should be better prepared for this race. 8-PROTONIC POWER was overmatched and on the wrong surface in the Hawthorne Derby but he had been in good dirt form prior to that race. Now he’s back on dirt. Improvement expected.

#5 CHRISTIAN C was worth playing against on September 30^th returning from the layoff and can be upgraded here with the race under his belt and honest effort all things considered. He will be met by the two returning Padilla runners including the race winner, #12 ALLEN. Allen was given an upgrade in that September 30^th race in part to Christian C coming off the layoff. His form cycle also presented an upgrade making his second start off the layoff and improvement projected after being “stiffed” on September 14^th not asked to run. His task here is much tougher with the outside post and coming off a taxing (HARD) effort to earn the win just two weeks ago. Stablemate, #7 KRAMDEN took a legit stumble coming out of the gate and projects to show more early speed and run with a cleaner break.

#3 THE LAST OPTION could improve off a subtle trip and rider error from that common race. The opposite trip worked out for #1 PISTOL BOX where things fell perfectly into place for him for the win on September 30^th from the other division running in Race 2.

#4 UNBROKEN SONG is taking a different path into this race making his second start of the meet. He should appreciate the return to the route of ground (ROUTER) for this race to try and find his first win of the year for Litfin.  

1-PISTOL BOX can win right back. He made a huge middle move to get into contention in last and was able to grind it out the rest of the way to get up for the win. That was his first race back off the payoff. Could be even tougher today. 5-CHRISTIN C is always a threat. He ran well against better for much of the year. He needed last after the layoff. Figures prominently. 12-ALLEN is another coming off a game victory and he did beat many of these rivals in that spot. However, he’s starting from the 12-hole today and that could easily make things more difficult. 

This is a race that has quite a bit of early pace. Field Daisey raced well at this level in her last, rallying late behind a horse who won her next start out.  Loveberry stays aboard which is a plus.

Things change in here with this race coming off the turf.  Son of Grace has shown ability on both surfaces and will likely be helped by some scratches in here.  Both Kanithappen and Keep Attacking move way up with the move to the main track.

Trainer Jim Watkins is off to a good start this meet. With his starters mainly racing at Fanduel Racing they are often overlooked. Highly Perfect gets the benefit of a pair of races under his belt and improved stamina in his second start out. The best way to take a race like this is to wire the field.

I've been waiting for Mystic Storm to return since opening day.  She wasn't fast from the gate in her debut and raced wide but had some much late run. A slightly better break is all she may need to win here. Loveyoulikecrazy took more action at the window than I expected in that same race. She had an outside draw but got a great trip and ran on late. Box these two in an exacta.

Have to take the horse for the course here. Twirling Roses has won half of his 10 starts over the track and was impressive in his last. He draws well, should find a perfect early spot and there's no reason to think he won't repeat that performance in here.

Jon Arnett runners have been excellent since coming over to Hawthorne.  Uptown Queen appears to be much better on the main track. Tellmeonasunday could be overlooked from the outside but benefits if able to draw in.

Minnesota-bred racing has been on the rise in recent years. This meet more than others, Canterbury shippers have had an excellent amount of success as well. Bayou Benny has faced some of the best in that state. It was just four races back that he was defeated by Doctor Oscar (while favored) and Doctor Oscar came back and dominated at Hawthorne last weekend.

Many of the same runners return from a complete fall apart race last out that saw unlikely winner Allen benefit from a perfect trip and chaos for others in the field. Don't expect a repeat performance of that race. Padilla has two in here and Kramden is a better horse than Allen. He stumbled badly and was shut off at the start in that last race and was still able to split the field.  Expect him to rate closer in here and run much better, possibly at a better price too.

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