Handicapper Tips & Picks

The pace projects Contention with the “Sun” rating and honest 50 SpeedRate to put pressure on the lone “E” runner, #8 RIVER FINN. The Quad I Square position upgrades all three, #2 TIO BLAS (cold barn), #3 HANNITY (distance limitation) and #7 CAMMACK (current form/Ploddy); however they hold some knocks for this race as noted to consider with post time odds.

The pace scenario and recency upgrade #1 JOLTING JOE and #10 PERFECT WAGER stalking as Squares right off that first flight in the center of the Plot. #4 VINTAGE KITTEN finds a similar position though is coming off a subpar effort with layoff lines that create reservations. Both #12 COUNTER OFFER and/or #13 JIMMY D would be strongly upgraded drawing into this race. Counter Offer is logical off his current form, whereas Jimmy D projects to get overlooked off his running lines against tougher in this current form cycle and moves up dramatically in this race and returning to Hawthorne. 

Tending to think we’ll be off turf on Saturday, other than in the stakes race, at least is weather predictions come true but do have to handicap for both surfaces. Old man 7-CAMMACK still has some racing life left and is probably the one to beat on turf, though 13-JIMMY D could give him a run for the money on the lawn, but will no doubt be scratched if this race gets moved to the main track. 10-PERFECT WAGER could be tough on the main track. He was just second at a lower level on dirt and although he’s entered as a turf runner, he’s been far more successful on the main track.

RACE 2: Boyce has sent out live runners all meet to help with the layoff confidence factor on #6 JOURNEYIST returning from the 314-day break. She fits on class and speed isolating her IL-bred races as she makes her return today a first against winners. Recent maiden winner, #3 GHAALEB’S HONOR fits back against this group pairing up an effort from the win two weeks ago; however that is not an easy task especially on the class rise. #5 STORMY EMPIRE is the lone mare in this field and one that has run consistent speed figures on par and competitive races at this level, however shorter on the win end. That form/class carries to #7 SUMMER BELLE keying off her races last year and the common Special Weight race with Journeyist back in December. She might require a race back at Hawthorne and turned in a strong turf effort on September 4^th that could suggest she will look ahead to the grass. Lone speed could upgrade #1 I DON’T KNOW MARGO in today’s race. With that said, she lacks finish and comes into this race on the lower side requiring a new top to win. 

Is 6-JOURNEYIST ready for her first start of the year? She graduated in her final start of 2021, when taking on Illinois breds for only the second time. She has been training well for her return and her barn does bring them back ready. That :46 and change workout on September 29^th might be the key. Always like 5-STORMY EMPIRE and she often runs well. However, she’s had 42 starts and only won four times. It wouldn’t be a surprise if she won this but wouldn’t be surprised if she didn’t. 7-SUMMER BELLE has had some good races on this track, especially versus Illinois breds. She finished third on the turf at Canterbury, against open allowance company, in her most recent start and has had two good local works since. Could be ready for these. 

RACE 3: Chris Block will look to continue the strong streak of debuting fillies on the turf in 2022 with #9 LORRAINE’S LEGACY. The barn has sent out three with two winners and the other, Kathaan finishing in a photo for the win here on October 9^th. Some less than ideal tactical decisions were made by Loveberry in that ride last Sunday and will require the right handling today from an outside post. Hugh Robertson will debut #8 PASTA SALAD RHONDA and while the barn is capable with debuting runners, their numbers tend to be higher with older horses though this pattern of debuting late in the season is in line with their training tendencies over the years. 

#10 LILLY LANE has the benefit of turf foundation and upside in this third career start. She projected to improve with the added ground from her debut, though had trouble at the start and was against the race dynamic from off the pace behind an open length pacesetting winner for Brad Cox called Beyond Doubt. Brad Cox could have a pair in this race with #12 WET PAINT and #13 ROMAN FLAME, both currently sitting on the AE.

#1 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN was bet down from the 15-1 morning line on September 15^th at Canterbury Park. She will look to validate that support shifting over to Hawthorne picking up Lasix, blinkers, and a route of ground for this third start. #5 MO SMOKIN showed natural gate speed before losing ground, the intent was to run her on the turf back at Canterbury scratching from a Special Weight race on September 15^th and will race here instead picking up first time Lasix. The turf route intention was in play for stablemate #2 ANA back on September 17^th scratching from a mile turf Special Weight race though will be required to step up in class moving into open company.

Again, will it rain enough for this race to come off turf? The horses in here that have raced have basically raced poorly so have to look at the first timers and maybe the beautifully-bred runner from the alsos that had one terrible race. Settled on 9-LORRAINE’S LEGACY. This homebred has a long series of workouts and runs for a barn that does well with first timers, 2-year-olds and those making their turf debut. Plus, she’s bred to probably be better on the main track. 12-WET PAINT had a terrible post and a terrible finish in her lone start but she does race for one of the top barns around, her barn wins with about 30% of runners making their second starts, and they excel with 2-year-olds. 2-ANA has the right pedigree to succeed on the lawn. She finished second in her debut and up the track in last but both were on dirt. It might be a different story if this race does stay on grass.

RACE 4: #6 MARY’S LAST SONG could land in the right spot returning to Hawthorne with the class relief today running in a claiming race for the first time since last summer. She has a strong closing kick and could get the right set up in today’s race shape. #7 ALMAFUERTE carries a strong kick as well and holds tactical speed that can also present the right trip in today’s race shape. She tends to prefer more time between starts and has that coming back today off the 32-day break – a change from the timing at FanDuel where she was running back every two weeks.

The competitive nature of this race could create other ways to land and options on how to play this race: #10 LADY ATLANTIC was warm on September 25^th and could take a step forward off that race returning under similar conditions wheeling back in 20-days, a subtle second off pattern. She is returning from the common race with place finisher, #9 AH LEAH, one that recorded her career top in that race and Lady Atlantic has faster races on her best day. #8 APOLLO U ANYWHERE holds a win at today’s claiming condition, surface and distance from last season and could be well meant showing back up today at Hawthorne for Max Quinonez, a barn that has sent out live runners to start the meet. The Hawthorne record could give her an edge today over #1 LIL BIT TIPSEY one that fits off her FanDuel form, though tends to run her stronger races over that course. #2 KITTEN ROCKS was fractious in the gate September 25^th and will find class relief from the race as she makes her second start off the layoff and return to this restricted $5k claiming level, the scene of her most recent win. #11 HEY HEY will also return from that common race though tougher to back with the most recent dirt win from the spring of 2018.

#3 WANNA HAVE FUN has come back this season on the “slower” side compared to her 2021 and beyond form. She should move up on the cutback to a sprint and should be the right move and timing for her first off the claim though does require running back to her previous form in order to compete in this race. Broberg has sent out live runners this meet, and those horses have been on the public radar and often bet down. #4 AIKEN TO BE should fit that pattern and while capable the turf-to-dirt move has not been as successful for her and could fall into underlay territory.

2-KITTEN ROCKS is an interesting runner. Although she can be quick from the gate, she is probably at her best when coming from off the pace. She’s dropping in class and making her second start off the layoff. Can surprise. 4-AIKEN TO BE has been running in turf sprints lately and five of her seven wins did come on the lawn. However, she has earned over $245,000 in her career and nearly half was earned on the main track. Her barn sports a high win percentage with runners going from turf to dirt. She is in good form. Why not? 7-ALMAFUERTE and 8-APOLLO U ANYWHERE are both in good form, though at different levels. The numbers of both suggest they can run with any in here. 

RACE 5: The “Fire” Contention rating paired with the higher 45 SpeedRate (Quad I horses bunched and above the Par Line) could set up a trip for #3 D’YANK showing up for Martinez to make his second start of the meet. He looked to given (PREP) the September 25th race running for a higher $20k tag returning from the 71-day layoff. He should move up with that race under his belt showing positive intent for the connections with the class drop, slight addition of ground and reuniting with April 9^th win rider Jose Lopez. The barn will also sent #8 TORIN, one of those Quad I pacesetters as a potential cherry on top of the sundae for the D'Yank trip. 

The number should be fair on D’Yank as he could be overlooked off his recent running lines and finishing positions. The contrast could see a shorter number on the recently acquired #9 OSCAR WINNER WALLY for Karl Broberg coming off a win 19-days ago. #6 LITTLE KANSAS should also benefit from the pace to close into though can be his own worst enemy with the habit of breaking slow (SLOG) and leaving himself too much to do late.

Tough race. It should be a wide-open race to bet but might be worth watching betting action, especially in the gimmicks, to see if there’s some hidden action. Think 1-LATIN CASINO might hold a slight edge. He was beaten as the favorite in his first start of the meet but he’ll be taking on easier here. He’s quick enough but also adept at stalking the pace. Might get them late. 5-TIME HEIST ran his eyeballs out in his local debut but just couldn’t seal the deal. However, that race was at six and a half furlongs and he lost by only a neck. The cutback to six furlongs could be just what the doctor ordered. 3-D’YANK also drops. He finished a bit behind top choice in last but might be able to turn the tables in his second race off the layoff.

RACE 6: #3 ANOTHER MYSTERY carries a major edge in today’s feature race, The Pizza Man stakes. He is has a perfect three-for-three record against statebred company on the turf including two stakes wins in back-to-back years in the Black Tie Affair stakes. His class prevailed earlier this year when bottled up in traffic and moving into the clear to outkick first run #5 TEMPER TANTRUM. 

Team Block will return this year well represented with pacesetter #4 POWER THROUGH coming off an N1 allowance win last week as well as improving turf runner #6 LAND MARK DEAL. Land Mark Deal does not have the accomplished race record as stablemate Another Mystery though could be on his way. He is showing OptixGRADE improvement coming into this race as the third start of the form cycle and favorably positioned on the Plot for today’s race shape. 

In 2021, The Pizza Man stakes was moved to the main track and run under poor WEATHER conditions upgrading #2 READTHECLIFFNOTES, the eventual winner. The public made the odds adjustment sending him off as the race favorite, a shift given the 15-1 morning line role before the surface switch.

3-ANOTHER MYSTERY looks pretty tough in what appears to be a pretty tough race. He’s a multiple stakes winner, including graded stakes, and he just barely lost a Grade 2 at Kentucky Downs. He won the Illinois-bred Black Tie Affair here in his lone previous local appearance. The abundance of pace in this race sets up perfectly for him. 5-TEMPER TANTRUM finished up the track in most recent start but he had been in good form prior. His best speed figures suggest that he can run with any in here, with the possible exception of top choice. Would love 2-READTHECLIFFNOTES if this race was on the main track but he might be overmatched on turf. But, he does love to win and he does love Hawthorne. Maybe lightning will strike. 

RACE 7: #6 BRING ME A CHECK should offer value in comparison to the logical #8 LOVE THE NEST, these two overlapping as Squares on the Standard (current form) OptixPlot. 

#2 MAGIC CASTLE will look to turn the tables on Love the Nest freshened from the Minnesota Sprint last month at Canterbury Park. Magic Castle is given an upgrade from his effort where he had a rough start and made an early move into a fast pace while trying to recover from the early ground loss. Love the Nest ran a big race to win, though did benefit from a favorable trip and race shape. 

There are a group of EP runners that could allow for the field to bunch up early. Anytime that scenario occurs the closers #7 TONY’S MORNING LINE, #9 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS (Plot taken lightly exiting the route races impacting position and shape) and #10 NAVY SEAL can find the right trip and this group would require that assistance just slightly below par.   

8-LOVE THE NEST has turned into a Midwest monster. Winner of five of seven, he raced outside of Minnesota only once but in that venture, his only previous race here, he crushed the field. His only two losses came at the hands of stablemate Doctor Oscar. Should be the best of these. Not sure how good 1-GOLDEN HORNET will turn out to be but he has been impressive in his two dirt races, wiring the fields in both. He does have the early zip necessary to beat top choice and the way he finished in both of those wins would suggest that the extra sixteenth of this race will pose no problems. 3-OMAHA RED is yet another that has been good from the start. Speedy sort is as game as the get and will fight for the lead every step of the way. 

RACE 8: #8 NATURAL CHILL has shown progression race to race and projects to have another move forward in this third start of the form cycle. The added ground should also be to his benefit today. He could potentially hold a pace advantage with #4 IRISH TUFF coming off a top effort should he show regression off that race along with the class rise.

#5 SOUPER FORTUNE will shift from the turf to run in this race giving him an upgrade on class and speed to fit today’s par. He has limited main track races, but those efforts stack up at this level as well. #9 WHERE’S THE DAY GO does not have main track form to go off of with both races early in his career at the route distance, though should benefit greatly from the change in class. #6 SKOL FACTOR has races that make him competitive but also has plenty of races where he could be eased up in the opening furlong, a tough type of horse for the bettors.

4-IRISH TUFF took his time but he appears to be at the top of his game right now. He wired the field to score his second career win in last. It looks like he could be the best of speed once again. 5-SOUPER FORTUNE, another that raced primarily on turf and another dropping in class, has had a couple good races on dirt and he was meeting better than these in those spots. However, his lackluster form can give one pause. 9-WHERE’D THE DAY GO is hard to figure. He’s dropping in class but with the exception of a couple poor dirt starts, he’s been a turf runner. Would normally dismiss because of the poor dirt performances but, at this level, he could be worth another look. 

Cammack is as honest of a racehorse as they come.  The 12-year-old is still going string as he approaches $600k in lifetime earnings.  His first back off the layoff was a solid effort and he should get a good pace setup ahead of him. Additionally, a turf with a little bit of give to it will be to his benefit.

The change to Esquivel may be all this horse needs as she is long overdue for getting through this level.  She has shown a tendency to hang a bit so don't be surprised if she is guided well away from other horses in the lane.

Completely a connections based selection in here.  Block on the turf is always worth a look. Lothenbach Stables is having an excellent year.  Works aren't overly quick but they are consistent.  Lasix for the debut for Lorraine's Legacy is a plus.

Almafuerte has never missed the board in seven career starts at Hawthorne.  She is having another solid season and has enough tactical speed to tuck in just behind the early pace. Ah Leah ran quite well in her last against a winner that was taking a massive plunge in class.

A tough race as the three top contenders all have similar running styles.  The 16th of a mile less off his last start was my deciding factor in going to Naughty Alfred here. With the inside draw I expect he beats Latin Casino and Time Heist to the lead. If he can catch just a slight breather early, that may be all he needs to run away in this spot.

Another Mystery chose this spot over the $300k Sycamore at Keeneland which tells you that the connections expect to win.  He will get more than enough pace to chase in here as five of his eight lifetime victories are at the distance.

Minnesota-bred runners have had a huge amount of success thus far this meet. Love the Nest may be the best of the Minnesota-bred horses. He was ultra-impressive in victory over the track this spring and should get a perfect stalking trip in this spot.

I'd be lying if I said the potential for a massive bounce off that last race didn't scare me with Irish Tuff. That was a huge performance for him. At the same time, he stayed fit all summer long while racing in Minnesota and may be the only speed in this spot. If he shakes loose early, there's no reason to think he won't repeat that performance once again.

LEG 1 – Race 5: Soft Favorite/Spread

2 the morning line/expected favorite, is a weaker favorite lacking progression and stepping up in class for this race. This horse will be used on most of the tickets and could win the race, though there are alternatives that stack up just as well.

Alternatives: 5 has upside with the class drop and return to Santa Anita; 7 coming off subtle trips at Del Mar for colder barn this summer that has improved this meet.

8 exiting out of common races with 2 and holds upside of the pair. 4 in shorter value category though can be used.

6,9 (unknown FTS) depending on style of play

LEG 2 – Race 6: Spread/Value Key

11 is morning line favorite to use along with Miller stablemate 10, hot barn.

O’Neill with a pair: 2 is okay, prefer 7 with intent. 7 was entered and unable to draw in twice at Del Mar and entered to debut over this course and distance back in January.

5 can be upgraded off the first two starts and would be upgraded with the front wraps removed, something that is unable to assess before the start of the sequence. Same with AE’s 13 and 14.

Value Key/Single: 5 (Option)

6,2 can be used depending on the play with preference to others 

LEG 3 – Race 7: No Edge

3,4,7 are tough to split, anchor 3 as possible better number. 3 carries intent to run at this level and distance noting a scratch at DMR on August 4^th under the same conditions/surface/distance as today’s race. Trending barn with a live rider makes her second start off the layoff.

7 is the “fastest” horse in the race though less proven at a route and coming off the layoff. 4 had an excuse on debut improved at this level on September 2^nd should hold form off the claim.

1 is tougher to trust though is making just her second start under today’s conditions and is the one older runner in the field.  

LEG 4 – Race 8: Value

Value Key: 2 has a win at the condition, second off the layoff with STRETCH upgrade for today’s race, preferred over stablemate 5 under today’s race conditions.

Live Longshot Key: 11 has a win at this condition, a BTL race at today’s conditions on June 4^th is making a second start of the form cycle, could have front wrap removal.

3 is logical to use fits the condition and preferred of the runners at shorter odds. 1 tougher to get excited about though cannot fully dismiss. 8 will be used heavily in the sequence given the connections though as a horse does not have any edge over others and has knocks with the price/layoff lines.

Extreme Longshot: 7 with return to turf, has some numbers on par, route distance very unknown.

LEG 5 – Race 9: No Edge

A case can be made for every horse in this race including the favorite: 2 tough to toss on the drop with live barn and higher figures.

Value: 1 and 3 exiting a common race on debut with higher race par on September 2^nd produced one next out winner. 1 has shown run despite run lines and finishing positions and 3 has more early speed than the debut indicates.

7 a tough read was outworked by her stablemates including older Icy Flavor (Race 6) though cannot dismiss under these conditions.

FTS: 4 live barn and a better fit at the MCL level than when entered in MSW on September 4^th had Van Dyke named. 5 and 6 unknown unable to catch works for visual assessment. 

LEG 6 – Race 10: Value/Key

Value Key: 5 has a win at this condition, and excuse on May 1^st prior to the layoff and a full legit excuse returning on September 5^th at Del Mar and still showed run.

Spread: 1 improving on turf, live barn has some tactical speed with inside draw to benefit trip; 3 back class and numbers showed tactical speed on the drop; 9 fits on numbers for top connections shipping in for local debut. 

T 3 Righteous Resolve 1 Shiny New Penny 9 Mass Hysteria

T 1 Ghostly Casper 2 Tuscan Prince 4 Dws Point Man

T 2 Adare Castle 1 Mischevious Rose 3 Baby Longstockings

P 10 Savethelastdance 4 Illusion Seelster 5 Lyons Bettorday

P 1 In The Mood 2 Prohibition Legal 3 Velvet Sting

P 10 Tattoo Artist 9 Warrawee Vital 8 Wheels On Fire

T 6 Tymal Tiggs 2 Twin B Archie 9 Esplosione

P 3 Stockade Seelster 1 Watchulookin At 2 Moment Is Here

P 3 Sport Secret 4 Cold Creek Queso 5 Ron

P 7 Dreamfair Arnie 9 Greatest Ending 1 Cadillac Bayama

P 3 B Stoney 1 Hail Christian 5 Dontpokethedragon

P 3 Going Fast 1 Stonebridge Rex 2 Typhoon Stride