Handicapper Tips & Picks

RACE 1: Longshot #6 ORNERY ANGEL has a look as she has been holding her form (Standard Quad II Square) at Prairie Meadows running under similar conditions, class par and purse to today’s event. She will shift to the turf and should handle the surface based on her physicality as well as some buried turf form from last year.

#7 GET NONE the class drop off the layoff is less concerning as she had been racing over her head following the Fair Grounds races and returns to a reasonable level for her abilities. Emigh was aboard for her win over this course and distance last November and positive intent could be inferred with his presence back board today.

#8 KANFU was upgraded on September 24^th with her RunStyle and Plot position as a Square winning at this level; however, today she is downgraded in today’s race shape shifting to a Circle. The post position change could also be tougher on #11 GO STORMIN GIRL (AE), the place finisher from September 24^th especially with the lack of finish, Large Circle, in relationship to others in this field. The roles could reverse as there is a subtle Plot change/upgrade for #1 LUVIN BULLIES coming back from that common event opening weekend and picks up Loveberry. #9 APRIL’S GEM also has a subtle Plot change and favorable Standard position that could have her competitive today making her second start of this current form cycle. 

I’m guessing 8-KANFU can do it again. She is meeting better rivals here but can’t see anyone keeping up with the :44 half she’s capable of generating and it they don’t collar her before the half, she could be long gone. 1-LUVIN BULLIES was favored over top choice in last, her local debut, but she never fired. She has, however, been a force at this distance and on the turf. Can bounce back at a great price.

7-GET NONE is a puzzle. She’s one of the most accomplished turf runners in here but she is dropping a few levels coming off a layoff with modest and inconsistent drills. 

RACE 2: #5 MINI DRESS should be the controlling speed and hold a pace advantage in today’s race as a Quad I Square (early positional speed and finishing ability) above the Par Line. #6 RUNAWAY A. TRAIN peaked in her form cycle off the top efforts from August 25^th and September 9^th. She will start a new cycle today coming back off the 32-day break and should improve from the September 14^th race with the timing and class relief with the higher OptixFIGRANGE/OFR from that Canterbury event.

6-RUNAWAY A TRAIN drops in class to make her local debut. She finished up the track in her last at Canterbury but an outside post and a wide trip compromised her chances. She generally displays good tracking speed. She might be overbet because of the drop in class but seemingly holds only a slight edge. 5-MINIDRESS just finished second at this level but she has also been in very good form since June. She’s quicker than most and, although not a typical front runner, she could find herself with the early lead. Might stay there. 4-JITTERS ships in from Prairie. She has been in good form and her barn has been sending out live runners.

RACE 3: #2 BRING ME A CHECK is cross entered in a higher allowance Optional Claiming race on Saturday (Race 7) and as she is given a look in that event she is logical here as well. She is likely to be a shorter price running in this event where she catches as smaller field and has the “obvious” look in this spot.

Should Bring Me a Check take the Saturday race; #1 SCRUTINIZER could find the right trip stalking #6 MEDAL OF FACT, one that is coming off a potential “regression” win three weeks ago and lacks finish as a Large Circle on the early version of the Plot that includes Bring Me a Check. #4 TETSU could also be sitting on an improve effort shifting back to the main track, the 6f distance coming off a subtle TROUBLE October 2^nd turf trip carried wide by rival pulling up.

4-TETSU always seems to be in the hunt. He had some issues going wide on the turf in last but he’ll be back on dirt for this. He finished second in five of his nine races this year along with two victories. The pace of this race fits him perfectly. Can cruise by late. 2-BRING ME A CHECK is another who usually fires and often shares. He scored only two wins in the last two years and he was DQ’d from one of those. Certainly figures but might be vulnerable again. 6-MEDAL OF FACT just surprised a good group of $20k claimers. He appears to be quite a bit quicker than most of these. Might sneak to the lead again and never look back.

RACE 4: #10 STACK SHACK was part of the chain reaction contact at the start and impacted her ability to establish position. Some of that is also due to the distance shortening back up to a sprint where she falls naturally into a presser/stalker role. #6 CHROME ATTACK, the eventual place was also part of the rough start and the physical nature of that race as a whole could impact her form returning today on three weeks rest while logical otherwise.

#1 SHE’S WANDAFUL will also return for her second start of the meet and returns to this allowance condition from the October 1^st route event. She moves up on the Standard (current form) Plot as a Large tracking Square, though will require Quinonez to work that trip as the Surface/Distance could be tougher to overcome the trip from Quad IV as a deep closer. Trip and a top effort is also required for three-year-old #9 HONEY BELLA as she makes her local debut remaining against older and open allowance company.

#5 BLUES MARY is given upset consideration as she remains on the turf and for this second start off the layoff with hidden form. While technically this is a big step up in class, as far as OFR, the OptixEQ version of a race par she will find some relief today with that September 24^th event assigned 84-76 and today’s allowance is a lower 75-67. Blues Mary has back numbers on the turf that stack up on par and earlier on in her career was competitive at times under similar N1X allowance conditions.

Like most turf sprints, this field sports a plethora of front runners. However, none seem to be quite quick enough to secure an easy lead. That could set things up for a closer. Going to look at 1- SHE’S WANDAFUL to fit that description. She’s been displaying good early speed going long but think she’ll finish with a ton of run with the turn back in distance. 10-STACK SHACK certainly looks tough. She’s been in great form for quite a while. However, she’s is probably better going long and that outside post, especially with the rail at 20 feet out, could be tough to overcome. 6-CHROME ATTACK finished second versus similar in her last two starts. Wouldn’t take much improvement to get her over the hump.

RACE 5: This race analysis starts with #5 BOURBON DELIGHT one that could just be too tough on the front end (Quad I Square) and take this field gate to wire. The odds will likely be short in this case as the “most likely winner” in this race and going out for top connections. The drop returning from a layoff does fundamentally create reservations and worth at the least examining a scenario where Bourbon Delight comes up short.

#7 DARE GOES DA DEVIL is moving forward race-to-race and stretches out wheeling right back in the third start off the layoff and at this meet for Perez. The change in distance could assist his trip upgraded to a Square on Surface/Distance. In addition, his form from earlier this year stacks up on par for today’s race noting he was running in higher N2 claiming condition events. #1 MADELYNS HEAT shares similar improving form and form cycle pattern in this third start off the layoff wheeling back in two weeks with a rider change as Emigh will take over.

#10 FUTURE VISION is also shown as a Standard Quad I Square and wheels back for Juarez in this second start of the meet. He was running above condition at the N3L claiming level just 9-days ago to suggest improvement today. The combination of placement and timing on October 7th could signal that race as “prep” coming back off a 52-day break and return to this circuit.

Hard to get past 5-BOURBON DELIGHT but not really in love with her chances. He is dropping a few claiming levels for this, however, and might not have to be at his best to win this. 1-MADELYN’S HEAT needed last following a layoff. Should be fitter for this. Seems like the best of the rest. 4-BLOOMING GARDEN also needed last. His good natural speed could be enhanced with the switch to Baird in the irons.

RACE 6: Brad Cox will ship in with #4 CASHABLE returning from the two month freshening. She fits this condition with the three lifetime wins to remain protected and could have some intent to run in this race with the 5.5f turf sprint distance. The 5.5f distance could also benefit #5 RICHIES GREAT GIRL along with the shift back to this turf course where she has been effective in the past. The presence of those two runner could make the trip tougher for #8 THREATLEVELMIDNITE drawn outside of that pair as a Quad I Circle. 

That “Fire” Contention could assist #3 COVENANT LADY in terms of a stalking trip with finishing ability as well as #1 MOM’S RED LIPSTICK with the layoff as her main hurdle returning from the 55-day break. #7 SHARP HERO could also land in the right trip though is softer on speed figures for today’s OFR and on class with the two lifetime wins slightly above condition for this race.

4-CASHABLE could hold the advantage. She races for the powerhouse Brad Cox stable. She broke her maiden in a turf race at this distance and finished third in a $100,000 stakes race at Indiana in her only other turf sprint attempt. 5-RICHIE’S GREAT GIRL has been competitive all year when not taking on stakes rivals. She’ll be stalking the pace in this one, hoping the speed comes back to her. 1-MOM’S RED LIPSTICK will do her best running late. She finished fourth at Colonial in her last two but did win here prior, back in June.

RACE 7: #8 FLATOUTANDFOXY comes into this race with form for Arnett and fits the condition of this race with just the lone win this season. That win was recorded for this barn back on July 17^th and following the claim back on August 5^th she was racing at a higher open company claiming condition in September. #3 NOFANSINTHESTANDS brings form into this race as a logical type. She was upgraded from a troubled trip on August 31^st and returns from a competitive October 2^nd place finish behind the pacesetting chalk winner, Resurrection Road.

Trainer Oscar Sanchez returns to Hawthorne with a pair for this race. #5 KIMBERLY FRANCES holds a win over this course and condition and is returning from a dominant B+ OptixGRADE win on September 3^rd at FanDuel. She was a voided claim in that race and has been 43-days since. That is noted as she tends to run her more competitive races on shorter rest time and could be a shorter price in this race. Her stablemate #6 SATIATE has buried form and form that stacks up right with Kimberly Frances on her best day. Satiate has required the time off to reset as she went off form this year after her April 24^th place finish. She has run well off the layoff in the past and could be well intended returning today with Barandela looking to use her speed and try to steal the race on the front end. 

Longshot #2 PRESENT OF HERO is worth a mention looking to regain to top form. She could produce that in this race making her second start of this form cycle and would look for the front wrap removal today. She holds a win at this condition, surface, and distance with Sanchez aboard and he will be taking back over today.

3-NOFANSINTHESTANDS gets a slim nod. She had a win and two seconds in the last three times she ran on the dirt. Late runner should get plenty of pace ahead of her even though none in here possess blistering speed. Can run by late. 8-FLATOUTANDFOXY ships in off a narrow loss in Iowa.  She had been in good form earlier in the year but maybe got turned around a bit after getting claimed from two straight races. But, she appears to be on the right track again. Figures prominently. 4-WEEKEND PASS finished a non-threatening third in her first race of the meet. That was her first start in six weeks. She has been in pretty good form all year. Should be a major player.

RACE 8: The “Fire” Contention is paired with a softer 16 SpeedRate and that scenario can allow for horses with tactical speed (Quad I) to still win though require current form (Standard) a top effort (OptixFIG in OFR) and finishing ability (Square) to do so. That upgrades #8 AWESOME FAMILY especially with the required class drop in his third start this meet; and #9 RIDE RICHIE RIDE with the class relief exiting the open company claiming events at Prairie Meadows and finds an individual Plot upgrade here to a Square from a Circle in those events. #11 IMPERIAL MOMENT is also upgraded on both Standard and Surface/Distance as he makes some changes for this race in his second start of the meet for Childers.

The tactical decision to move inside with #12 TURN THE SWITCH had him intimidated (SCARED OptixNOTES) and potential cost a better position on the day. They should avoid an inside trip with today’s far outside draw though has that post challenge and the shorter distance as hurdles to consider as they could receive public support off that third place finish and with Loveberry jumping aboard.

8-AWESOME FAMILY takes a needed drop. He hasn’t been racing poorly since getting claimed by this barn but he’s just been overmatched. The drop in class should take care of that. 10-SIR ACEALOT tries to make it two in a row. Stablemate of top choice showed little on turf in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but that race was on turf. He’s meeting a bit better than the field he just beat but he is back on the right track. 13-SIRCORRI is a game old timer. He doesn’t win many races anymore but he often makes it interesting.

Get None is not only a specialist at this distance on the grass but moves up over courses that have a little bit of give to them.  She hasn't raced since July and takes a class plunge but she has raced at this level before and may be hoping to get to where she can become Starter qualified again.

Jitters has been better in her last two starts, both at today's distance.  She has tactical speed which could put her on the lead in here.  The barn is off to a fine start since coming to Hawthorne as everything is live.

Bring Me a Check scratched out of a much tougher spot on Saturday for this race.  He looks to rate close to the pace of Medal of Fact and may not face much else when it comes to early pressure.  This looks to be a winning spot.

It appears that there is enough pace in this race to set things up for someone to close late.  Chrome Attack ran a good race at this level in her last while at a price and should be a decent value once again.

This race comes down to running where the horse belongs.   Madelyns Heat was claimed for $6,250 this spring and tried to step up. After a tough race in Indiana he dropped back to this level in his last and ran well. The rail trip and some tiring speed upfront will set things up nicely.

Cashable is the class of the race for sure.  She comes off a pair of stakes tries into this spot and the key today is that she isn't entered for the tag.

Another Arnett horse that fits the spot perfectly.  She rallied late and just missed in her last and I like horses that get claimed away from barns and then get claimed back.

There's a lot of early pace in here which should set things up for the closer. Sir Acealot comes off a solid effort in his last and takes a logical move off that victory.  No reason to think he won't repeat that performance here.