Handicapper Tips & Picks

5-BEING CREATIVE makes her first start after getting claimed by this barn. They are stretching her back out to a route. She hasn’t shown a lot sprinting but she did win two of her three route races on the main track. Apprentice rider with her seven pound weight allowance could certainly help. 4-BEZEL SET has the look of a top contender. She didn’t fire until too late in last but she has been in good form all year. She’s the stablemate of top choice and, like her partner, she was claimed from last. Stretches back out and she has been good in route races. 2-AIKEN TO BE TAKEN hasn’t exactly been quick but she’s stretching out while dropping in class. Wouldn’t be surprised if she went right to the lead and took it all the way.

The route distance combined with today’s OptixPLOT “Fire” Contention and honest 43 SpeedRate could make things tougher for morning line favorite, #2 AIKEN TO BE TAKIN under today’s conditions. #4 BEZEL SET should keep things honest early and of that first flight has the edge in finishing ability as shown as a Large Q1 Square. Trainer Jada Schlenk will return with the pair #6 MEXIA and #7 EMOJI PRINCESS from the October 11^th common race. The Contention rating here could benefit Mexia in this case (Surface/Distance Quad IV Square) and could present another move forward with the OptixGRADE progression coming into this event. Stablemate Emoji Princess should be closer to the pace today. That trip is shown on Surface/Distance Plot where she is closer to the first call (Quad III) and could be compromised with the race shape.

Not in love with 10-LUCY’S LOOKING LEFT but she’s been in good form since dropping into lower level maiden claimers and her speed figures suggest that she could be lengths faster than any of her rivals. 6-AMARI S makes her 35^th start as a maiden but she has raced over her head for many of those starts. She ran well here in the spring/summer meet. Probably needed last after a brief layoff. Should be competitive with the class drop. 2-WEDDING BOURBON owns decent speed. She’s not likely to get an easy lead but could hold a slight advantage from an inner post if the rail is “live” like it was last week.

On Standard #2 WEDDING BOURBON could sit a trip tracking off the first flight (Quad I) and with first run on main rival, #10 LUCY’S LOOKING LEFT. Wedding Bourbon recorded her career high 65 and 67 OptixFIG over this course from her first two starts and should move up today running today at the lowest level in her career. The 10-1 morning line does not project to stick and expects to be shorter.

Morning line favorite Lucy’s Looking Left is logical coming into this race with current clean form (no red) in the Past 3 Runlines, OptixFIG in OFR (race par) and finding subtle class relief (lower OFR today) as she makes her second start of the meet as a flow upgrade (X_FLOW) from the October 1^st race.

Looking at Surface/Distance OptixPLOT, #8 TROUBLE IN RED could hold a pace advantage, however she finds more Standard (current form) Contention and according to OptixNOTES she was drifting out (NO_LINE) badly while tiring on September 26^th. #9 LALUCHADORA is upgraded on the Plot and overall as she makes her second start of this meet/form cycle. Her 62 OptixFIG earned over this course back on June 25^th stacks up with the OFR and on the higher end of her rivals in this field. #6 AMARI S. is tough to back on the win end though is one based on the Plot that could stick around for underneath. 

8-FOLLOW THE SIGNS has done fairly well in turf sprints. He got claimed here by this barn in December and ran well enough to finish third when shipped to Santa Anita. The, following a lengthy layoff, he returned here and raced under the “waiver” designation; meaning they didn’t want him claimed out of that race. Today he’ll be making his second start off the long layoff. Should be ready. 11-MASTER GUNS has to overcome a tough post but he’s been in relatively good form, he races for a hot barn, and he gets the top jock as pilot. Wouldn’t ignore 1-GRAND HIDEWAY. He got off to a poor start in his first race of the meet but he won his two prior races in Indiana; both starters on the lawn.

#8 FOLLOW THE SIGNS (quite literally) as he looked to require the race coming back off the 230-day layoff on September 30^th. That PREP out of the way should hold his form coming back today to look for the win. His stablemate #4 THE BOSS FACTOR had a less obvious “PREP” on September 24^th with the timing on the 11-day turnaround when the barn was cold. He has races going back to Turfway Park that stack up on OFR though still very unproven at today’s turf sprint distance. Going back to his early days he started his career competitive, almost exclusively sprinting at Woodbine and following the sophomore year the opposite has been in play with the series of route races.

#9 SAMURAI MIKE has early speed and speed to carry to the first (furthest left) and second (high on y-axis) call as shown on the Plot to keep on the radar, especially at the 20-1 morning line.

#7 CHANNEL WON is listed as the lukewarm 7-2 morning line favorite might not end up taking that role and does not project value at that number in this competitive race. His form regressed after the Fair Grounds with current form below and even some concerns with the repetitive layoff lines. He ran a solid race over this course last November though still an effort slightly below a winning one at a slightly softer condition to today’s race. #5 REMEMBER THE MAINE comes into this race with current form, though has a tougher C/Closer RunStyle requiring a lot of pace and racing luck in a full field to win.

7-CO CONSPIRATOR drop back to the right claiming level. He finished a competitive fourth while taking on better in his first start of the meet and had a win and a pair of seconds in his three previous trips on this track. He has been quick at times. Might be fast enough to grab the early lead and never look back. 2-TWO COOKIE RULE is often in the hunt. Would expect him to be racing close to the early pace. Could simply wear the others down. Not sure how to figure 1-SCAT SHACK. He’s been in good form in Ohio with competitive speed figures but he got claimed from his last two starts and has now mover to a new track. Guess we’ll see.

#4 FLASHY RICHIE should benefit from the added ground (STRETCH) returning to a route of ground for this second start of the form cycle. The class change from allowance to claiming was effective on August 12^th and a similar angle is in play today. He should offer value overlooked off his running lines, though still has his work ahead of him with #7 CO CONSPIRATOR in the race.

Co Conspirator will find some class relief and a slight dynamic upgrade from the October7th race with the winner, Machinegunpreacher (and show finisher Pinedale) racing from off the pace. Going back to October 7^th Co Conspirator was shown on the Plot as a Standard Q3 medium sized Square and a smaller Quad III Circle; his Plot position as a Quad I/III Square is upgraded today.

#2 TWO COOKIE RULE is worth another look on the turf exiting the October 7th race as he makes his third start off the layoff and with the class relief today.

6-GHALY POSSE was barely beaten in her two races. She led most of the way in both and just got nipped at the wire. This will be the first time that she’ll race with a recent start under her. Should be in peak form. Has to be caught. 9-BEG BORROW N STEAL showed little in her first two starts facing open company on the lawn in Indiana but was far more competitive in last when taking on Illinois breds on dirt. This will be her second trip on dirt. She finished a length behind top pick in that last race but she was making up ground late while the other was running out of gas. Might run by today. 3-TENSE makes her 17th start as a maiden but she has finished in the money seven times. She was favored in most of her races downstate but could be a nice price here. Not sure she can compete with top choice but she could be a valuable inclusion in the vertical gimmicks. 

#6 GHALY POSSE comes into this race as the horse to beat and should be treated as such heavily backed by the public. Her two races to date make her a player right back today, however she has shown gate issues (liability) in both starts breaking slow with the RUSH into the lead. #9 BEG BORROW N STEAL has hidden form to upgrade for today’s race shape. She was compromised from the trip (TACTIC-) and rough start (TROUBLE_S) on debut and running against the dynamic (X_FLOW) setting the pace in her second start. She ran on late into a slow early pace on September 30^th earning the same B- OptixGRADE as Ghaly Posse on the day.

2-BENS MALICE will be tough. This is undoubtedly the easiest field he has yet to meet. His turf finishes are a bit misleading since he was in such tough company. He finished fourth in the $100,000 Hawthorne Derby but, in reality, he was in a blanket finish for second place. Likely worth the short price he’ll go off today. 8-ULTIMATE IRONY moves up in class after a narrow victory versus claimers last out but he does race for the top barn and he gets the top rider in the irons. Don’t think he’ll keep up with top choice but he could be the best of the rest. 12-CHICKEN TRUCK ran well in his last two turf starts and went off at a high price both times. He just finished third at this level but is likely to go off at a high price once again. Can’t count him out; at least for a share.

#10 GATE CREW could be overlooked off current form showing up in this event for his second start off the layoff. He looked to need the race (PREP) back on September 24^th and should benefit from the start and fitness taken out of his previous stalking run style to push the pace. #5 DYNABLUE did not necessarily require the race on September 24^th with current form from Ellis Park, though Baird did not ask Dynablue for his best and could present a move forward today improving off the 5^th place finish.

As older horses their age and maturity could present some advantages over the sophomore runners, #2 BEN’S MALICE and #11 PROTONIC POWER – logical types in this race exiting the Hawthorne Derby finding class relief in this allowance event. #12 CHICKEN TRUCK is worth a mention as he could be shorter on the board of returning group (Dynablue and Gate Crew) with the third place finish from the common race. His though his C+ OptixGRADE and position on the Plot does not offer any edge over the common rivals or for this race as a whole. Value is also noted for #6 SAMYAZA, though he does bring in a subtle Plot upgrade for today’s race shape. His overall form and OptixFIG sit on the lower end of today’s OFR and must improve off his races this season to a career best to win today.

In terms of class and speed, #1 LONESOME DREAM and #8 ANDREW THE GREAT are on the lighter side for today’s condition though the added ground (STRETCH) today should be to their benefit.. 

Not sure what to make of 4-UNCASHED’s dominant victory in his debut. He led throughout, cruising to an 11-length victory but was facing only five rivals at Louisiana Downs and he went off at 14-1. His workouts between Louisiana Downs and Lone Star gave little clue that he was going to run like that. But, have to give him the benefit of the doubt. Likely favorite just might be that good. 1-HAND PAY came from well back to win his local debut. He got off to a poor start but still won going away. If top pick faces early pressure in this race, this colt just might repeat. 2-LOOKIN FOR BALA is another that dominated in his career debut and another that led throughout. However, he faced only three rivals. Unlike top choice, he had a series of outstanding drills going into his race. The speed figure he generated was close to that of top choice. Could he be the better of the two? Maybe.

RACE 1: The debut effort from #1 UNCASHED was massive and it was no surprise to see him privately purchased from that event. The new connections have been patiently waiting out this second start noting he was entered to run here under similar allowance conditions back on September 30th. The quick turnaround was the knock that day as outside of that element, he was visually dominant and carried himself in the manner that should see him competitive going forward . His presence in this race from the visuals to the speed figure makes him tough to ignore, the horse to beat running back to anything close to his first start against today's field. 

12-YAK has never won a race shorter than seven furlongs but this six and a half might still be doable. This gelding went off as the odds-on favorite in last when making his local debut as well as his first start for this barn. He showed little there but think the trip over the track as well as the switch to the rider who won two races with him in August could wake him back up. 6-EL ASESINO made a late move and got up to finish second in last, his first race of the meet. That race was a furlong shorter. He might have passed everyone if that contest had been at today’s distance. Not sure what to make of 4-FASCILITATOR. He won an allowance race in his last start. However, that race was two years ago. He has been working well for his return but the big drop would suggest that caution is urged.

#10 JUST GUN IT comes out of that September 30^th race mentioned earlier on the card that set up for horses from off the pace. Just Gun It can be upgraded as he was part of the early pace PRESSED from the rail/SAVED.  The fitness could assist him here as he cuts back in distance to this extended sprint in the second start off the layoff. Emigh will take over today to present positive intent as a rider upgrade for this barn.The Plot position and prior form for #4 FASCILITATOR would have him a standout in this race, however his form is impossible to assess coming back after almost two years, the 719-day layoff. His presence in this race is impacting the Plot with the horses positioned with relationship to each other and mentioned in this case especially with the “Red” PlotFit. His stablemate #3 GONZO has the benefit of recency with a solid effort, B- OptixGRADE with a subtle close and gallop on September 24^th, opening day.

#6 EL ASESINO is also a Quad II Square and has back class to support him in this race with those efforts stacking up for today’s claiming level. His current form is progressive and capable of taking a step forward today in this second start of the meet/form cycle. #7 PINSON could also find himself back to top form in his second start off the layoff. He had a subtle trip and did not appear asked (TACTIC-) for his best returning from the two month break on October 2^nd. He is capable to show more tactical speed (E RunStyle) and finds a positive post position change moving off the rail for a horse that prefers to run outside horses.

#5 EMOJI GUY is a legitimate longshot, though one that is not without a chance coming off three straight races with subtle trips going back to September 8^th at Belterra park shown in the Past 3 Runlines. Similar consideration for #8 DEVIL’S RULE finding class relief in his third start of the meet/layoff with progressive, improving form for this race. His stablemate #2 BOOM FIVE THOUSAND was the unofficial winner of a race at this distance back on May 21^st. He was disqualified for making contact in the stretch with place and the call controversial as Boom did appear “best” on the day. That is mentioned as the day featured a four horse field with one that retired early. Boom overall has struggled to run his “faster” races on this circuit and must find his top form to compete here.

This is an extremely difficult race to kick of the Pick 5. There's a carryover of $4,760. Any horse in here could possibly win.  The ability to go two turns consistently was why I ended up on Bezel Set.  Additionally, she has run her best races with Bailon in the saddle.  Being Creative worth a look as well but is in her third barn in as many races. 

May be worth looking for a price in this spot with the likely favorite on the far outside. Wedding Bourbon has been a different horse since the removal of blinkers three starts back. She can show speed in a race lacking pace and may be able to hang around late.

A pair in here trained by Brittany Vanden Berg so start with the one that Emigh rides.  Follow the Signs raced with a waiver at this level last out and held his own.  Have to figure it is likely he gets claimed today so the connections will want to go out with a win.  For a turf sprint there isn't a ton of speed in here as he will likely have to rate close.

More than anything the class drop is the key for selecting Co Conspirator in here.  He was claimed for this price back in May and has since won twice for his connections. Expect to see more early speed from him here. Watch out for Two Cookie Rule. He tends to be a different horse with Loveberry in the saddle.

Ghaly Posse ran well last out, only to finish second to another Becker runner. She has speed in a race that lacks pace and even a repeat of that performance would be good enough to win in here. This is the most likely single in the Pick 5.

Not a ton of pace in here but there's enough for Ben's Malice to chase. This is a good allowance field but Ben's Malice comes off a strong race in the Hawthorne Derby last out. The inside draw should allow him to rate closer but he may have to weave through traffic late.

Uncashed isn't the normal one you expect to find its way to the Rivelli barn. An impressive maiden score at Louisiana Downs in September followed by a trip to Chicago.  He adds Lasix for this spot and could  improve. Hand Pay benefits if there is a quick and contested pace upfront. He overcame a poor start last out and was flying late. McMoney a sleeper as he improved with Lasix.

The added distance makes the difference for me in here. Although El Asesino hasn't won at this distance, he was running on late while running an 1/8th of a mile shorter last out. Felix won a couple of races on Sunday and looks to be heating up in the saddle.

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