Handicapper Tips & Picks

3-STAGE DOOR probably had little shot going five and a half furlongs in his last race. He only finished sixth of eight. However, he made up about eight lengths over the course of the race. He stretches back out for this. He won his previous two route races, including his last route with Quinonez in the irons. He’s going to be a nice price in this wide-open race. Can surprise. 2-PRIVATE LAKE could be tough. He owns good speed and an inside post and the inside of the track has been pretty favorable. He tired in last facing better but did wire the field in his previous start. 4-MY BOBBY MCGEE is dropping out of allowance company but it was Iowa-bred allowance company that he’s leaving. He hasn’t shown a lot since winning his first start for this barn but the apparent drop could get him headed in the right direction.

#7 DOM CAETANO earned a follow returning off the layoff two weeks ago and projects (PREP) to move up in this event. He was not allowed to run after breaking slow and taking contact with the rider taking a firm hold right from the start. The return for this race suggests positive intent given the quick turnaround for this second start off the layoff, the positive distance change, the class drop and from the race visuals and rider tactics from October 7^th. 

The Arnett pair fit for today’s race: #2 PRIVATE LAKE has enough early foot (furthest left on the Plot) to race as the controlling speed. His form supports that position as he makes his second start off the layoff and a flow upgrade (X_FLOW) staying on as the “best of the speed” through a fast pace that set up for the top three to finish in a blanket at the wire. #3 STAGE DOOR is lighter on running against slightly softer company at Prairie Meadows, though can be upgraded off his current form, Plot position as a Quad I Square and stretching back out in distance for this race.

5-HURTS SO BAD could be in surprise mode. He moves up in class after getting claimed from his Hawthorne debut but he seems far quicker than his rivals, he has shown the ability to run well on turf, and he was claimed by a barn that has exceled with their first-time claims the last couple of years. 12-MONSTEROFTHEMIDWAY has been training well for his career debut. He races for a barn that knows how to win with first timers and he has one of the hotter riders in the irons. Would be no surprise. 13-JEALOUS EYES figures prominently if he draws into the race. He’s had seven turf races and finished in the money in four of them. 2-STORM BORN could be right behind top pick in the early going. He finished third in last, his turf debut, stalking the pace all the way. We know he can get the distance. Might prevail.

#11 KEEN RESPONSE returns with a freshening from a BTL effort back on September 4^th at Canterbury Park. He showed a lot of run stalking wide for the majority of the race and carried widest off the turn still closed ground gamely down the center of the track to finish in a blanket at the wire and galloped out with the top three. 

#8 MEET GEORGE JETSON is unproven over the turf as he makes his grass debut in this race. From a physical standpoint he should benefit from the added ground with the STRETCH out from the sprint on September 29^th. He will pick up a live rider in Loveberry and going out for Tracy, a barn that has sent out some live runners this meet.

#13 JEALOUS EYES (AE) is given a mention should he draw in. His turf races from last year stack up as some of the stronger recorded figures in the field. He had the challenge returning from the 550-day layoff on October 3^rd at HS Indy, though gave an honest effort to contest the pace stayed on as the BOS (best of the speed) in the place finish. There is also noted intent for today’s turf route conditions noting he was entered for the maiden $15k claiming tag (8f turf) on September 20^th at HS Indy.

Once again 4-OEUVRE is the one to beat. She was red hot at two and has been even hotter this year with five wins in six starts. She’s might try to go right to the front end though she has proven that she doesn’t need the early lead to win. 2-PURR SEA is the main competition. She was certainly the nemesis of top choice last year. She beat that rival twice; once in the Showtime Deb and the other in the Debutante. She hasn’t faced Illinois breds since the Debutante last December. She might be a step quicker from the gate and this could be a case of the first one to the front end wins. 5-WHITE LIES wasn’t a match for Purr Sea in last but she was the best of the rest. She’s going to go off at a big price with the presence of the top pair in here but the pace of the race, with top pair possibly locking up in a speed duel, and the distance of the race, could work in her favor.

#2 PURR SEA fits as the one to beat with a class and speed figure edge. The main knock for her coming into this race at the projected shorter odds is the quick turnaround off a top effort only two weeks ago. She also projects to take pace pressure from #3 DANCIN AT MIDNIGHT one that is upgraded on the Plot as a Quad I Square, though has been slightly flattered by race shapes in recording those faster numbers. 

#4 OEUVRE comes into this race on a progressive patterns and could be sitting on a top effort today in this third start of the form cycle. She has shown versatility in her Run Style, a feature of class and that could allow for the right trip in today’s race sitting right off Purr Sea and Dancin at Midnight with first run on #5 WHITE LIES.

3-COFFEE CALIENTE seems most likely. Not only is he the only one with good running lines, he’s getting first Lasix and dropping from the stakes ranks. 7-TAHOE RUN is a well-bred first timer. Most of his drills have been slow but he was the best of 53 on October 8, at four furlongs. Gets the top jock. His barn wins with first timers. Could be the best of these. Not sure how 9-LINE TO GAIN will take to dirt but he was narrowly beaten in his lone start, on turf. Gets Lasix for his local debut. If last is any indication, expect him to come flying late.

A case can be made for a wide open event starting the analysis with #3 COFFEE CALIENTE. He figures as the horse to beat with the edge on experience and has run consistently some of the higher speed figures in this field to make him a logical type. He is proven on the dirt, though ultimately could move up with the shift to the turf. The turf intention also appears in play for #9 LINE TO GAIN based on his debut race and also a scratch (vet) from turf mile Special Weight race here on September 30^th. The other runners with experience will step up in class for this event and overall must improve. That scenario opens the door for the first time starters in this race: #5 SNOWMOBILE, #6 MOON CONNECTION and #7 TAHOE RUN. 

6-VERKLIMPT is a weak pick in a wide-open race. She didn’t show a lot in last at CD but undoubtedly met tougher there. Plus, that was her first race in three months. Her lone win came in a route so the stretch out might help. 1-MORE ROMANCE also ships in from Churchill where she was most likely meeting tougher rivals but she also finished a distant third at Belterra. She finished about nine lengths behind top choice in last. Getting Mojica in the irons is a plus but not sure that will make enough difference. 2-ALQWANI just missed in her local debut; going off as the odds-on favorite. She fought hard down the lane but came up a nose short. Might be able to make amends. 

#8 VERKLIMT showed run against the race shape on September 29^th at Churchill Downs. She will find class relief for this event in her second start off the layoff. That combination could be necessary for her to excel at the route distance. Improvement and stamina is required for rival #1 MORE ROMANCE also returning from the common race at Churchill Downs last month with a wide trip.

#5 FOXGLOVE will come back off the 55-day freshening and from a subtle trip (TACTIC-) to improve off of. She will require her form and stamina to carry as she makes the surface switch to run on the main track. She has a pair of races on the main track with turf races taken off the grass and Foxglove was able to transfer her form and figures in those select events.

Roman sticks with #2 ALQWANI today coming off a place finish here on October 8^th where she was an upgrade from excuse worthy the September 4^th race. Roman was aboard #3 LOCK IT DOWN on September 14^th and gave her the best chance on the day and overall a solid effort against the race flow to finish in a blanket at the wire. The step up in class to take on open company and older is the bigger hurdle than the surface switch today.  

2-STAR OF KODIAK can repeat. Winner of last had a tough summer in Indiana, including getting pulled up early in his last race there, but he has been very good on this course, with wins in his last two local turf sprints. 3-TUFF ATTACK could be tuff at a price. He tired going long in his first start back off a four-month layoff but he’s turning back in distance for this. He won the last time he ran in a turf sprint and paid $12 doing it. Can we expect the same today? 4-STALLONE led most of last but got passed by Kodiak late. The extra distance of this race shouldn’t matter since he has been competitive in dirt routes. Could be right there throughout.

Following the board with #3 TUFF ATTACK could be key going back to his June 3^rd win when he was heavily supported by the public bet down from the 12-1 morning line. His race that day with the 85 OptixFIG and trip from Roman stacks up on par/OFR. Childers will cut back to a sprint, a move that could be calculated by keeping him protected on October 7^th, while gaining fitness setting a solid pace (X_FLOW) for the route distance coming off the 126-day layoff. 

Childers will also return with #7 MAJESTIC ATTACK one that is given another look on the turf and projects to show more tactical speed today. He was restless in the gate for the October 2^nd common race and was not asked for much run distanced from the field. Showing more tactical speed today could put pace pressure on #4 STALLONE, the pacesetting place finisher lacking finish on October 2^nd.

#2 STAR OF KODIAK comes back today for Quinonez looking to pair up wins in his second start of the meet with a change in class, distance and rider change for this event. The changes are neutral with the one note his history of gate issues to factor in terms of value.

Nice competitive race with virtually all the runners in good form. Have to give the nod to morning-line favorite 1-KHOZIES GHOST. She won five of her eight races, including four of last five. But she never ran here. It seems likely that she’ll carry her form here, her barn always does well, but this is an awfully tough race for this level. Would desire a fair price. 5-GO STORMIN GIRL might be worth a look. She just finished second, on turf, at a higher level and she won a couple at this level, on dirt, in the spring meet. She’s quick though not as quick as some. Instead, expect her to be tracking the early pace with the possibility of running by late. 7-SWEET CONFUSION moves up in class but she is two-for-two over this track, including a score at a higher claiming price two back. She did get claimed from last. We’ll have to see how she does for new connections.

#1 KHOZIE’S GHOST would be no surprise to win this race, though is tough to have confidence in at a short price with the recent layoff lines and coming back off a strong of wins to drop in class for the claiming tag for her Hawthorne debut.

#5 GO STORMIN GIRL does not present any strong edge with pace (Plot) for this event, though is proven at today’s claiming condition, surface and distance and upgraded on those handicapping factors. As far as the pace, the “Fire” Contention could set up for a runner from off the pace.

#9 OWEN’S PLEASURE fits as one of those “off the pace” types and looking to improve today after coming up short to the public expectations, favored in the September 25^th common race. She was claimed out of that event by Martinez to return under similar conditions with a live rider change and given added recovery with the 27-day break, a change from the two week turnaround the timing for the September races.

6-AMANI’S EAGLE didn’t beat a rival in his local debut. However, that race was against tougher and It was contested on grass. This runner has generally been competitive when facing claimers on dirt. Wakes up with the drop in class and the return to the main track. 7-MACHINEGUNPREACHER just beat the majority of this field. He came from last to score. However, speed has been holding better lately. He might not be able to close as well this time. 5-MILLARD’S SMILE has been in great form downstate. He finished second by a head in last but had won his previous two starts by daylight. Good tactical speed will have him racing right off the early pace. Might be able to run by late.

#1 SEMINOLE BEACH fits at this level coming back for his second start of the meet off the B- OptixGRADE and subtle upgrade from October 7^th given the race flow. The winner of that that race, #7 MACHINEGUNPREACHER benefit from the dynamic (FLOW) and given the trip and the shorter turnaround, the two week timing, he could be softer for this race and lack value at a shorter price today. #2 PINEDALE should offer value off a subtle trip, while still earning a B OptixGRADE (winning GRADE for the level) on October 7^th. He can present a move forward as he makes his second start off the layoff and as that value alternative with similar RunStyle, GRADE and Plot position/shape to Machinegunpreacher.

Have to give 3-BETTER THINK TWICE the benefit of the doubt. He never ran on dirt, his two main-track starts were on AP Poly, and his dirt drills are rather slow but he is dropping to take on what appears to be his easiest field ever. 2-KNIEVEL was favored and finished second in his local debut. Like top choice, his best races were on turf but he did well in that dirt race at this level last time out. Might be able to make amends. 5-BEHAVIN MYSELF was a daylight winner in his last two starts on this track; his maiden win last December and his last start when he ran away from the field in a NW2. His record doesn’t really show it but he’s been in good form for a long time. He was the odds-on favorite to win last but his price could be far more attractive in this contest.

The “Red” PlotFit suggests a chaotic race shape and a scenario given the visual representation to upgrade Squares, #2 KNIEVEL, #6 EGOMANIAC and #7 FEEDING FRENZY; runners with finishing ability. All three return from the October 7^th common race and fit right back under today’s race conditions. Egomaniac might be the most overlooked and hold the most upside of the group as he was taken out of his normal run style (TACTIC-) to push the pace and is less likely to be forced into that role with his stablemate, #4 RECKLESSNESS in the field, a natural pacesetting type.  

Initially it appears that Private Lake has enough speed to steal this race. That is a possibility but with two in here from Broberg I expect one of those two to challenge early as well. If that's the case, it sets things up nicely for Buxterhooter to rally late. Warmer temps and less wind all will help to even out the bias.

Rolling the dice with the connections over those who have raced in here. The outside draw doesn't help Monsteronthemidway but there is a speedy gate drill that makes me think this one can clear the lead from the outside. Love, love, love the name Harmon Killer Brew and the horse has some turf ability. Just also a lot of chance to have already broken his maiden.

At 2, Purr Sea continually got the best of Oeuvre. While Purr Sea has also raced well this season I think Oeuvre has progressed a bit more.   White Lies is the sleeper at a price to rally late, especially if there's a pace battle that falls apart.

At first I was all over Coffee Caliente to win in here as he came out of a solid stakes race in Minnesota last out. He adds Lasix and will take a lot of action. That being said, Hugh Robertson always has his runners ready and the connections are looking for the Illinois bonus purse money from Tahoe Run. It would not surprise me one bit if he runs big at first asking.

The added distance is the difference here in selecting Alqwani.  She had issues at the break in each of her first four starts but seemed to figure things out in her most recent race. With that hopefully behind her a clean break followed by the ability to relax while going two turns could be very beneficial.

The added 16th of a mile could mean everything in this race.  Star of Kodiak ran a big race at 5 furlongs last out and will be good at this distance as well. The price though will likely be short. Stallone was running on late behind Star Of Kodiak in that race and now gets consecutive starts on the grass. I think he may be able to wear down Star of Kodiak in here.

The concern in here is there is a lot of early speed to challenge the likely favorite. At the same time, the likely favorite may just be faster early than the others. I'm guessing that will be the case.  If the others go to challenge, they may fall back and my second and third choices could run on late.

Everything coming from the Arnett barn has seemingly run well, and improved even, with shifting over to Hawthorne. Despite a shorter field I expect there's enough pace for Machinegunpreacher to chase. He's bred to run all day and closed from the back to win last out in a race that only had a moderate pace upfront early.

The last time this group faced off I liked Egomaniac. I was a bit surprised he didn't make the lead and do worry he beats me here as there's a change in the saddle. That being said, Knievel did close late to run on for second behind a lone speed winner. He should be sitting on a good race in here.

P 6 Jk Miki Mantle 8 Yourtheone 10 The Boss Said

P 7 Test Of Faith 6 So Much More 5 Amazing Dream

T 8 Selfie Queen 9 Joviality S 10 Adare Castle

P 7 Grace Hill 1 Gias Surreal 5 Racine Bell

T 5 Jiggy Jog S 2 Fashion Schooner 1 Raised By Lindy

T 3 Slay 4 Robertsin 5 Justice

P 4 B Stoney 3 Legion Seelster 8 Stonebridge Rex

P 2 Forever Boy 8 Ponda Warrior 5 Pebble Beach

T 8 Cool Papa Bell 9 King Of The North 1 Pretender

P 1 Bythemissal 2 Mad Max Hanover 3 Night Hawk

P 7 Heavens Showgirl 6 Nightlife Seelster 1 Shes Nun Bettor

P 2 Cold Creek Cabo 8 Commanding Officer 1 Century Heineken

P 5 Respect Our Flag 10 Rockme Rollme 4 Alex Having Fun