Handicapper Tips & Picks

#8 TRIPLE CHROME should be in the right spot to break through the maiden ranks with the setup in today’s event. His class (B- OptixGRADE) at this condition on October 2^nd stacks up on par with the potential to improve in this second start of the form cycle. He has tactical speed and finishing ability as shown on OptixPLOT as a Large Q1 Square. That trip along with the outside post should allow for Triple Chrome to press/stalk right off rival #2 COAL TOWN ROAD; one that will make his first start back off the 50-day break requiring improvement with the” Red” Keywords in the Past 3 Runlines. 

This race looks like a toss-up between 2-COAL TOWN ROAD and 8-TRIPLE CHROME but landed on Coal Town Road. That gelding does seem like the quickest member of the field and speed has been doing well. On the other hand, he’s making his 13^th start as a maiden and most of those race have been against runners similar to these. Triple Chrome drops and could be meeting the easiest field of his career. He owns good speed but might not be quite as quick as top choice. But at this level, he might be able to edge by. 6-KING ZION turns back in distance. He finished a distant third in his meet debut. His best chance would come if the top pair did lock up in a speed duel.

#7 SHE B GLAMOUROUS is likely to get a lot of public attention coming off the recent results and win here at the level on October 2^nd. She is capable right back and should have pace to close into, however she could be peaked in her form cycle coming off the pair of top efforts and value should be assessed in that case and with others as alternatives in this field.

Looking at OptixPLOT, there are a group of Squares in Quad II/IV to set up a similar favorable trip in today’s race shape and higher 93 SpeedRate. Both #6 ZANDREA’S and #12 COME ON SWEET PEA should move up on the class drop exiting the October 1^st allowance race. #4 LIZZ A BEE should also benefit from the DROP coming into this race where she fits with her RunStyle and OptixFIG in OFR – today’s race par.

#5 NORTHERN ALLIANCE and #13 ANTALYA (AE) also present as Squares with the ability to compete in today’s race. Antalya will need more than luck to draw in with the outside post, though is one to keep on the radar as she could be overlooked off a sneaky good effort with the trip on October 10^th detailed in OptixNOTES shown in the Past 3 Runlines.

The Plot for #9 RENTAL POOL does not create any pace advantage today, however, she has some buried form and could be sitting on an improved race this afternoon making her third start off the layoff.

12-COME ON SWEET PEA didn’t handle the allowance company in last but she REALLY didn’t handle blinkers. They come off after the one-race experiment. Plus she’s dropping she’s dropping to a level where she should be far more effective. Price shot could be tough. Not sure 7-SHE B GLAMOROUS can repeat the last phenomenal effort that won her last race but she has been sharp for months and she is meeting many of the same rivals, with the likelihood of a similar pace, that she just beat.  2-DAIGLE appeared to be on her way to the win when She B Glamorous swooped by to grab the prize. She’s another that has been in great form for a while. Might be the first to cross the wire.

#4 DOLLY’S LINE created an excuse for herself breaking slow and getting tangled up coming out of the gate on September 23^rd. She was favored in that event and there were some concerns for her that day in that role showing up wearing first time front wraps. She fits with today’s race conditions/pace and seems well meant in her second start of the meet returning today with a live rider change as Emigh takes back over. #7 DELTA LADY also returned with front wraps on September 23^rd and can be upgraded according to the Plot for today’s race, though does require another move forward to a top effort for this race and running as a sophomore against older. 

The Plot shows a favorable scenario for #2 QUEEN EKATI as a Large Square in Quad II. That represents her form coming into this race, though for today she will make her first start back in 50-days and at the time of this analysis she does not show a published work since the September 3^rd race. By contrast, the Plot position is less than favorable to #5 HARD LIKE HOLLY, though her form has been impacted by the placement of her races and being mismanaged running in races above her abilities (DROP) and comes back today off the two month break to a condition closer to her needs.

#6 HEY MA is on the slower side that requires a top effort today. That noted, she has upside returning to a similar N2 claiming level from the race and trip 15-days ago. The trip was subtle as she drew the rail, and the rider Reyes did not fully commit to taking the lead and had her shuffled from the inside. She moves to an outer post and should have the type of trip that will allow for her to run her race. 

4-DOLLY’S LINE was heavily favored when dropped to this level for last but she was unprepared for the start and never got out of last place. This field is exceptionally weak, however. She should be able to overcome mild trouble and still score. 1-TAP N TWINE tends to tire but she does have decent speed and the inside post and inside speed has been winning a lot of races. Getting the “bug” rider in the irons, with her seven-pound weight allowance, should only help. 8-BOOZIN AT BOZOS just finished third in her local debut. However, she has been caught in a recent pattern of a decent effort followed by a poor effort. Has to break that streak to be competitive again today.

There is a pace scenario (OptixPLOT) where #6 MEDWAY QUEEN is able to break on top and control the race gate-to-wire. With that said, her lack of finish documented in OptixNOTES and shown represented as a Large Circle should be factored along with that potential front running scenario, especially with #4 STACY ATTACK (Quad I Square) tracking her throughout. Stacy Attack will return from the October 8^th race where she opened up as a heavy favorite before drifting up to 5-1 at post time. She will find class relief from the race two weeks ago and fitness as she returns to make her second start off that 105-day layoff. 

The pace scenario with the separation of those two could leave the others with too much running to do late though the Squares of #1 WICKED GOOD, #3 GREEN BANANAS, #5 RUNNERS HEAT, #7 FRIEND and #8 READY AT MIDNIGHT create some underneath value options in the vertical/exotics.

The speedy 6-MEDWAY QUEEN might never look back. She finished second in last, facing ricals similar to these in Indiana. 4-STACY ATTACK could like the one to beat. She’s meeting a bit easier after a decent meet debut versus better. The drop could do the trick. 2-UNION PARK GIRL raced primarily on turf but she did finish second two starts back in an Indiana race that was moved to the main track. Without any that in here that stand out, she looks as good as anybody else. 

#2 VEZPA can be upgraded from the 6^th place finish on September 22^nd at HS Indy. Heading into that event, she was making her first start back in 126-days; a layoff that was not part of the plan noting five scratches with races coming off the turf from July through August. In addition to the layoff, her run and trip was compromised by the rider TACTIC- and racing against (X_FLOW) the dynamic. She should find improvement off that race based on form, prior OptixFIG that fit in today’s OFR and a favorable race shape for her RunStyle given the “Sun” Contention, high 89 SpeedRate as a Quad II/IV Square.  

Interesting race pitting an Illinois-bred stakes competitor versus a Virginia-bred stakes competitor dueling on the front end. Not entirely sure either will survive the grueling pace to finish with anything left. However, have to give the benefit of the doubt to 9-KATIE M’LADY. Her last race, her only race this year, was terrific, even if she didn’t win. She fought for the lead from the start, through blistering fractions, and still held on for second, despite making her first start of the year. That “tightener” could have set her up perfectly for this. 5-MORRIE’S JOY is the sleeper in this race. Winner of last in Minnesota does her best running late and with the contested early pace of this race, she could have dead aim on the early speed by midstretch. 1-MO CLARE’S just finished sixth as the favorite in a Virginia-bred stakes but she wired the fields in her two previous starts and narrowly lost to open company four races back despite returning from a lengthy layoff. This fleet mare has the advantage of the rail draw and possible early position. Regular rider Loveberry, currently the leading rider here, stays aboard.

The dynamic of this race is interesting with the “Sun” Contention paired with the lower SpeedRate. That scenario can still set up for a runner on or near the lead. #2 HONEY MUG is upgraded of the Quad I runners shown as a Square (finishing ability) on Surface/Distance. She has further upside returning for this race with a rider change following a TACTIC- on September 24^th to suggest positive intent today.  

Honey Jar will need the right handling and early separation to hold on the lead noting the Large Quad II Squares, #1 MAUREENLOVESFRANK and #6 LONG TALL WOMAN will be looking for the first opportunity to stalk-and-pounce.

Sharp claim by Rivelli and company 1-MAUREENLOVESFRANK just missed in last despite the move into allowance company. She missed by a head going off at 5-2. Guessing she’ll take this late at far smaller odds. 2-HONEY MUG is generally a contender on this, her favorite track. She’s speedy but think her rider will let others go for the lead and tuck in behind them, waiting until well in the stretch before making their move. 6-LONG TALL WOMAN is another with early zip but another that is also comfortable coming from off the pace. She also has a history of running well on this track but she was in another barn for most of those races. Her first start for this barn wasn’t bad but she’ll have to kick it up a notch to be really competitive with this group.

The difference in the OptixPLOT appearance should be compared from Race 6 to Race 7. The change in Race 7 shows a higher contention with the “Fire” rating, with more than half of the field in Quad I and to the left of the y-axis; combined with the higher 38 SpeedRate, a visual shown with runners above the ParLine. This type of pace scenario could see #1 KIERKEGAARD as the “speed of the speed” with #8 COMISKEY PARK also holding his own as a Quad I Square, though that group picked up late by #6 COURTHOUSE COVE. He should be able to track that group and look for first run on #7 BEEALEA, though both capable with this dynamic. #2 SWISHAWISH shows a dramatic change from Standard, his current form on the turf, to Surface/Distance on the main track where he ran forwardly placed to win on August 16^th at FanDuel. 

8-COMISKY PARK was favored in his first start of the meet but ran into a surprise monster called Golden Hornet. He did finish second in that race while no match. Might have needed the race after a brief layoff. Will be tough on or off the lead. If you do like Comisky Park in this race you have to give 6-COURTHOUSE COVE another look. Comisky beat him by only a neck in that race. He went off at 15-1 in that spot and he should be a square price again in this one. Also 6-BEEALEA was only another neck back, going off at 26-1. Hmmm.

#2 BERAVINA shows up in this spot to make her first start for Vanden Burg and here at Hawthorne. Following her this season at Woodbine, she was overmatched for their Special Weight level, though could find this circuit as subtle class relief noting a lower OFR today (70-62) compared to the 83-75 OFR assigned in her most recent starts. As far as the shift back to dirt, she recorded a couple of strong 77 and 82 OptixFIG on the Gulfstream Park main track to start her race career late last year, again those figures on par (OFR) for this race. #5 CRYSTAL SNOW could present a move forward with this second start and on the quick turnaround. She showed some tactical speed in the Keeneland debut two weeks ago and could present that early speed to make her competitive in this race. She had been previously training here at Hawthorne to suggest potential intent to run on this circuit. 

Becker will show up with a pair in this race with #9 WILDWOOD BYE leading with the experience making her second start to improve off the October 1st local debut. She showed run making a move after a slow start behind the front running winner, American Pyramid, earning the same B- OptixGRADE as place finisher, #7 BAILOUT KELA.  First time starter, #3 WILDWOOD GHALY was scheduled to debut on September 23^rd in a statebred Special Weight race at FanDuel, however a vet scratch unable to participate.

#6 BELPERRON is given a mention as she returns from a slight layoff with the circuit switch and exiting a competitive and productive Ellis Park race. She overall must improve especially from the gate with the pattern of slow starts (SLOG) in both starts. The intention for this race could also be questionable as she was entered and scratched from a turf sprint on August 20^th at Ellis Park.

Not sure 2-BERAVINA is a lock but she’s been running against some of the best maidens in North America, racing at Gulfstream, Churchill, Keeneland and most recently Woodbine. She managed only a couple second place finishes in eight races but have to believe this will be the easiest field she has ever met by far. Guess we’ll see. 7-BAILOUT KELA has had 10 races and finished second in eight of them. Move have been against Minnesota breds but she did finish second here in her last start. 8-YANKEE AGATE makes her first start in 14 months but she’s been training forwardly for her return. She had four races in her career and finished second in three of them. Good luck Dave.

What appears to be a two horse race may truly just be a one horse race as Triple Chrome appears to be the best of the bunch.  He has enough tactical speed to rate close early and the inside two look to push things along on the front end.

Broberg took a shot in the stakes race last out and it was worth a try for the state-bred.  She made a decent showing of herself and finds things much easier today.  There's quite a bit of early speed to chase as she should be able to rate and rally.

Dolly's Line got an absolutely horrendous trip in her first start of the meet and has been away since. The rider switch to Baird is big as you can expect a better break, more speed, and a much better performance.

After being claimed for $7,500, Stacy Attack has been having to take on much tougher in each start since. She drops back to a level where she can easily compete as she should sit just off the pace of Medway Queen in this spot.

This race is tough because the top two in here are both very talented but both also have the same exact running style. I loved the game effort off the long layoff last out from Katie M'Lady and have to think she looks to go from the outside in here. If the top two do hook up and ding dong it on the front end then maybe Russian Mafia swoops them all in the lane.

Honey Mug has to be a bit confused as she has had four riders in her last four starts. Another rider change today to Mojica but I think his style suits and she should get a perfect trip from just behind the pace. Maybe she can pose an upset threat.

Comiskey Park is speedy but last out got stuck chasing Golden Hornet who beat him to the jump. Today I think he is the fastest from the gate as he should clear and possibly never look back.

Definitely not the best trip in the debut for Wildwood Bye as she raced wide the entire way but did have some late kick. Hopefully getting a race under her belt along with a workout following will be enough to improve for a win in this spot.