Handicapper Tips & Picks

There seems to be plenty of upfront pace in this race so I figure there might be enough to set up for a late runner like 3-MARY’S LAST SONG. She’s been in competitive form most of the year without winning in nine starts. But, she got claimed from last and might have better luck for new connections. On the opposite side you have 10-KIANA’S LOVE. She’s still eligible for this condition, despite winning three of her last four, due to an exclusion. She does love the front end. Might be able to put them all away. 6-IMAGINE GOLD has been meeting better since getting claimed by this barn. Not expecting a dramatic turnaround with the class drop but she might show enough improvement to grab third.

#5 IMAGINE GOLD sneaks into this race on conditions with her August 6^th win at the $4k claiming level and does not count towards eligibility. She was claimed out of that race by Quinonez and protected first off the claim on September 13^th and likely “given” the open $10k claiming event here on October 2^nd with that race run on the turf and route distance. Her races here at Hawthorne on the main track stack up on par and fits here off those efforts. Her stablemate #8 COOKIN ROSES will also land here and back at this level from the place finish on October 7^th. She ran a big race that day to finish second and stay on as the “best of the speed” (BOS) after setting a very fast early pace for the distance. She could be vulnerable coming back in three weeks off the HARD effort, though her presence in this race, should keep the pace honest and make things tougher on the front end for #10 KIANA’S LOVE – one that will return from the 49-day layoff, step up in class off a top effort back on September 9^th. 

#3 MARY’S LAST SONG ran a BTL race after the rough start making a late move for second. She will when right back from the effort to run first off the claim for Campbell on the two week turnaround. She fits at this condition and showed she can compete here, though will be tested to hold her form on the 13-day turnaround off what could be a taxing effort. #2 SUMMER LOVIN is capable of improving from the October 9^th race, though requires better handling as the decisions early (TACTIC-) to take back and rate off the pace left her too much to do late after the wide move. 

#1 HEY HEY, #4 HOPPESTRY and #11 FLYING BUSINESS sit lighter for this race to support as top contenders with major racing luck required for them to win, though they are coming into this race with form and their running style to position them in for minor awards at the longer odds.

We’ll be off turf today and tomorrow, it rained about two inches here, so not sure of scratches but there might not be many at this low claiming level. Have no idea if 11-RIVER FINN will stay in this race, he’s never done much on the main track, but he looks like the only one in the field that possesses any kind of early speed. 8-COUNTER OFFER won his last in the exact same situation and went off as the favorite. However, there doesn’t seem to be much early speed in this race so not sure how effectively he’ll be able to close. 10-ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS raced on turf most of his career but he did win two of the last three times he ran in a race that was originally scheduled for the lawn and moved to the main track. His rider lost his irons in the other. 

#8 JOLTING JOE should benefit from the return race just 6-days ago in what appeared to be a “PREP” coming back off the 81-day break. He showed more run on October 22^nd noting he was not asked for his best making up ground inside and continued to gallop out. That race looked to be a “paid workout” and returns in this race to the preferred route distance and finding some subtle class relief to run here for the $10k tag. 

Longshot #3 HONEST TO GOODNESS has buried form that fits on par and competitive races at a similar condition to today’s event. A move forward could be projected from the wide trip on September 23^rd as he makes his second start off the layoff and reuniting with Tavares, a rider that has had success aboard in the past. A shorter price is projected for both #6 HANNITY and #7 CAMMACK exiting the common race on opening day (September 23^rd) with the minor finishes. While neither winning this race would be any big upset, they lack a strong edge. The value and edge concerns carry to #4 COUNTER OFFER coming back from the off-the-turf win at this condition two weeks ago.

#9 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE is a legitimate longshot in this race though has some positive changes for this race and a Plot position/shape that is worth the mention at the expected odds. 

3-BRUCE BANNER should finally be in the position to win. He won’t turn into the Incredible Hulk (we hope, though it is close to Halloween) in his local debut but this is most certainly the easiest field he has yet to meet. 2-BOONE’S PATH has a couple of thirds to his credit from only three races. His last, on turf, was his best race yet. Could get the turf-to-dirt boost coming into this. 8-SENOR MIKE split the field in his lone start. That was a swiftly-run short turf sprint and he was making up ground late. The longer distance of this race should help but we’ll have to see how he takes to the switch in surfaces.

#7 BALADINE on current form could hold a pace advantage in this race. He has the foundation making his third start and will change things up shifting from the turf to the main track. His race here on October 9^th was a self-inflicted trip lugging out around the turn. Prior to that incident he took some contact at the start, dueled wide on hold and even after losing his line and ground showed interest late in the lane.

His main rivals: #2 BOONE’S PATH ran a competitive figure in his debut at Churchill Downs though has since had the layoff lines and a history of slow starts. #3 BRUCE BANNER feels as the “obvious” horse though tough to ignore his “ploddy” style that lack of willingness to win in his races to date, especially as he projects to be a shorter price this afternoon.

Anybody, literally anybody, can win this race. I landed on 10-SEA SQUALL without a lot of confidence. He finished second to the tough Twirling Roses in last, his first start for this barn and his local debut, and might have beaten that runner if that race had been at six furlongs instead of six and a half. 12-FIRERY TALE, the morning-line favorite, not only has to overcome the 12-hole but he also has to overcome history. He’s had 23 races at this distance and only won once. Plus, he was claimed from hot barns from his last two starts and he might be tired of changing bedrooms so often. The speedy 7-TIZ APPROVED won five in a row earlier this year. He’s going for the lead. Might be able to take it all the way.

#9 BRAVO BRAVO was all out to win here on September 24^th and regressed with the step up and stretch out on October 8^th making his first start off the claim for Broberg. He was likely not as well-intended given the timing and changes earlier this month and should improve for today’s race condition.

#11 LITTLE KANSAS tends to be his own worst enemy with the tendency to break slow. Outside of overcoming a slow start, he will find class relief off his races going back to his debut running here at the lowest of his career. As far as trip, the class relief could allow for him to recover from a slower start and his current form and figures stack up on par.

This is a tougher race to figure out than the earlier race that was scheduled for turf. Few of these runners have shown anything on the main track and figure half the field will be trying to get out. It’s hard to predict who will be left. 6-ABITIBI broke her maiden on synthetic and has had only one turf race so I have to guess her connections will let her give dirt a try. Recently-claimed 9-ON A TOUR is jumping in class but four of her six victories came on the main track. 1-IMMINENT THREAT had a win and a second from her five main-track races. And you never know, one of the turf specialists could jump up with a big race. All six of 13-KINGSBURY DREAM’s victories were scored on the main track but she has had 16 races here without a win. 

#5 LUCY’S CAKES FLY was logical in the role as the favorite on October 1^st and with adversity from the outside post, acting up in the gate, a slow start, a rough trip in running she was still able to finish in a photo for the win. It is encouraging given her layoff history to return for this race in under 30-days and picks up a rider change with Loveberry aboard today.  Loveberry was aboard #10 TWELVE STARS on October 1^st and Mojica will take over today. She will also pick up blinkers in this third start off the layoff and on an improving pattern. That is key for her as a lightly raced, progressive, three-year-old filly. #3 FALL MOON also is given a mention off an honest effort to finish third with a wide trip and should hold her form for this race. 

Loveberry also was aboard #2 ABITIBI on September 23^rd as she returned from the layoff and making her Hawthorne debut for Rivelli. She presented upside on that day, keying off a strong debut effort. The start of the race last month was on the physical side taking contact out of the gate and that might have played a role on her race and ability to compete. She returns today to make her route debut and must step up dramatically to compete here. Rival #6 JUDY’S MS OFFICER will also stretch out as she returns to Hawthorne for Cristel. Physically she looks the part of a turf runner and should improve with the surface switch and in this second start off the layoff.

5-PH FACTOR says try and catch me. He tired on the turf in last but he’s going to be far tougher with the move back to the main track. A couple of his rivals have competitive speed but not sure how long they will be able to stay with him. 7-IRISH VALOR pulled off a minor upset in his local debut. He was still last at midstretch in that race but won going away. Might be able to do the same thing today. 13-MOMENT will be tough if he draws in. He won five already this year and is two for two at Hawthorne.  8-SYMBOLIST was favored in last but couldn’t keep up with Irish Valor down the stretch and finished second. He’s been in good form all year and expect him to be a major player again today. 

The OptixPLOT for this race shows a high “Fire” Contention and SpeedRate with more than half of the field in Quad I and above the par line. This scenario should set up for the Quad IV runners. The pace should benefit #2 COWBOYS DREAM today, a change from October 14^th racing against (X_FLOW) the dynamic. The connections will also come back for this third start in the meet with a subtle class change and back to the condition of the June 17^th win. #3 IRISH DECLARATION had the race flow in his favorite on October 17^th at HS Indy, though the intention for that race was not as present on the day coming back off the 31-day break and should move up with the quick turnaround, a favorable form cycle pattern for this horse/trainer. 

#9 WILD FOX is part of the early Contention, though could also be a “mismatch” on the Plot (black OptixRPM) and projects improvement off a subtle trip racing wide and closing ground on October 14^th. 

As far as the other Quad IV runners: #7 IRISH VALOR also benefit from the race flow and ground saving trip to win here on October 8^th and running a top effort on the day will require a similar trip and to hold his form for this race. #12 BIG PINES SANDY is also present in Quad IV, though is not necessarily a RunStyle match for that Plot position as his route races from Prairie Meadows were contested at a softer condition than today running against statebred.

Tough race. Possibly minor stakes quality. I wound up with 2-CALIBRATE. Claimed from the world-class Asmussen barn back in March, he has flourished for his new connections. In his six races for them, he has yet to finish worse than second. He hasn’t raced in two months but had a couple good recent drills here. Could be ready for them. 1-TONKA WARRIOR just finished a surprise second in the $100,000 Hawthorne Derby where he used his good stalking speed to race in striking position from the start. That race was on the weeds but this gelding has been better on the main track. 9-MAGOO, stablemate of Tonka Warrior, can’t be ignored. He has had some huge races. However, he might get caught up in a speed duel, compromising his chances.

#2 CALIBRATE shows up well placed for his local debut. His class and speed (OptixFIG) stack up on par/OFR and fits with a favorable RunStyle (Plot) for today's race shape. The competitive nature of this race could create a path for many in this group to compete and for the public to support - the number on Calibrate should be fair and even slightly overlooked. 

Looks like the tough horses are on the outside. 11-GLOBAL EMPIRE started his career on a tougher circuit but crushed the field downstate in his first Illinois appearance, breaking his maiden by 10. Then, he raced in second throughout in what turned out to be a match race, with hi only opponent grabbing the early lead and never relinquishing it. Now, he’s dropping in for a tag. He’ll be facing a full field from an outside post but believe he’s up to the challenge. 14-JACK’S SPRING BREAK has to draw into the race but, if he does, he’s going to be a major player. He’s dropping in class and turning back in distance. Can finish full of run. 3-TAPIT SAM enjoys better speed than the rest. Wouldn’t surprise if he grabbed the early lead and never looked back.

The race shape today could take up a similar dynamic to the October 9^th race at this condition that many will return from. The race was contentious, but the pace was slow for the opening quarter, which assisted the winner, Valley Vista and #3 TAPIT SAM both forwardly placed to make up the exacta. #2 SHANGHAI SILVER projected to push the pace and likely would have made the early pace more contentious if not for being unprepared at the start and breaking slow (SLOG) taking him out of his race and RunStyle. Shanghai Silver is upgraded today off that trip and could be overlooked off the running line and finishing position. 

#1 FRISCO LINE is given a mention once again as he was favored in that event and finished third on the day. There were concerns with him for that race with the visuals from September 28^th followed up with an aggressive class drop – those factors should be considered again at a short price. #11 GLOBAL EMPIRE scratched from that October 9^th race and was assigned as the second choice at 9-2 on the morning line behind Frisco Line. The timing could have been a factor for Becker to scratch that day and allow Global Empire more time between starts. That adequate timing seems to be the key for him to run a top effort, an effort he requires and capable of running today and was a knock on him earlier this month.

I really like this claim of Marys Last Song as she may have more to offer. She fit nicely at this level last out but stumbled at the start before running on late.  With a good amount of speed in here and the top challengers to the outside, I expect she gets a good trip with Mojica aboard.

At time of writing (Wednesday) this race is 50/50 to remain on the grass. With that in mind, Counter Offer would be a threat on turf or dirt.  He raced well in a race taken off the turf last out and may rate a bit closer early in a race that lacks pace.

A light of lightly raced horses leaves room for one to jump up and run big in this spot. With that said the most consistent runner in the field is Bruce Banner. His figures have him faster than these but most starts are around two turns. The move to a spring may get him into the winner's circle, or may be a reach trying to find a victory.

This is a very tough race with many in with a shot. Half of the first 24 starters from the Arnett barn this meet have found the board and often times while facing better company. Sun Squall lost to a horse that has had a ton of Hawthorne success last out and today drops to face easier. 

Much of what happens in this race will be determined by if horses can get in off the also's list. Lucy's Cakes Fly ran very well over this course in a tough loss on Hawthorne Derby day. This is an easier spot than that race was. Kingsbury dream has been ultra consistent on the turf and shows figures that would put her right there in this bunch. She just needs to get in.

With Gita's Lad and D'Fever scratching out of here for a race on Saturday it does remove some of the pace from this race. There's still a good amount of speed in here which should set things up for the closing move of Irish Valor. This horse hit another gear late in the lane last out as the long Hawthorne stretch benefits his stride. Irish Declaration should welcome the added distance off his last couple. P H Factor is solid on all surfaces but his best dirt races at Hawthorne have come in spots where he went unchallenged upfront early.

Shortlist has been very consistent while making starts over four different tracks this year. Hawthorne will be his fifth.  He finds a spot with quite a bit of early pace to chase and gets the distance where he races his best. Calibrate is another that should be running on late while Tonka Warrior shifts back to the main track after a big turf try in the Hawthorne Derby last out.

Despite the large field there isn't much in regards to early pace in this race. Tapit Sam draws well and comes off a big effort at this level last out. He also shortens up a 16th of a mile which can only benefit his chances today. Global Empire is the other pace but will have to overcome an outside draw.  Stun Gun may be a sleeper as he ran on late after stumbling at the start last out.

P 4 Control The Smile 6 Lets Go Jude 10 Allstar Cheddar

T 6 Stronebridge Bomber 2 The Hazelton 1 Impressive Dude

P 4 Sporty Tori 1 Mc Kella 6 Got The Gold

P 4 Hes A Sweetheart 3 Scribblers 1 Sauble Ace

P 3 Ideal Star 2 Beyond The Sea 1 Ivory Hanover

T 4 Celebrity Bambino 1 Gaines Hanover 9 Oh Well

P 1 Charleston 5 Sylvia Hanover 2 Strong Poison

T 3 Instagram Model 4 Special Way 6 Walner Payton

P 2 Handlelikeaporsche 3 Confederate 6 Combustion

P 3 Dabarndawgswatchin 6 Snow Shark 1 Heavens Showgirl

P 7 Century Inspector 6 Jack Panic 8 Night Shadow

P 3 Got Sexy Scars 3 Goodnight Irene 6 Casimir Swamp Girl