Handicapper Tips & Picks

Rivelli return with a pair of fillies with class changes for this race. #1 WILMA MANKILLER will drop in for the claiming tag and the move should be right for her to compete in this spot off her current form.

#3 SWEET CRYSTAL debuted under similar maiden claiming conditions at Canterbury Park on August 11^th. She had a legit excuse, stumbling at the start, breaking out into her race rival and nearly lost the rider, though completely lost her race. It was encouraging to see her recover and show early speed while wide on the turf on September 15^th, a race she was likely given to run protected and regain some confidence after a traumatic debut. #8 ARRINGTON could surprising in here she showed early speed naturally on September 21^st at HS Indy and was not asked to keep or improve her position in running. Since that debut last month she has been working locally here at Hawthorne and can show improvement in just a second start.

First time starter, #5 HER TIME IS NOW could receive a lot of attention off the published maiden claiming stat in the form. While Vanden Berg is capable with this type of runner, this will be her first maiden claiming debuting juvenile runner.

Rivelli will also return with #4 GULF BENDER worth a mention as she returns for this race with the three months since her debut and spotty work tab coming into this event. She debuted over Colonial turf course where she lost her line lugging out before getting eased up on July 26th. She was scratched (trainer) from statebred Special Weight race against males on October 14^th and might have been entered just to fill the race with the barn also sending out the race winner, Rivzonaroll.

It’s almost hard to imagine 1-WILMA MANKILLER not winning this race.  She has speed, the inside post, and the rider that will get her to fly out of the gate. She tired in her local debut but this race is a sixteenth shorter. Shouldn’t get caught. 5-HER TIME IS NOW is the unknown. She races for one of the top barns. However, she’s making her debut off a series of slow drills. After that top pair, you have a bunch of fillies and mares that haven’t shown a thing. Your call.

#6 EYE OF THE CAT was given a mention on October 5^th as a progressive runner to follow on this circuit though as noted, he likely will require class relief. He will find the proper class change here and can be upgraded repeating a winning form cycle pattern. This angle was used earlier this year dropping from the allowance here in June to the claiming ranks to win on August 19^th. 

#9 FUTURE VICTORY is an obvious player in this race off his current form and returning to the claiming condition. He ran a B OptixGRADE, a winning GRADE for the level, on July 22^nd at Saratoga racing at the N3 $35k condition.

#8 LORING PARK was flattered by the ground saving trip and heads up ride by Roman to finish together with Ultimate Irony at the wire on October 7^th.  Ultimate Irony came back on October 21^st with a BTL run (finished fourth) and improved OptixFIG against allowance company. That could flatter Loring Park, however those two are tougher to make a side-by-side comparison as Ultimate Irony had back numbers to support his progress next out whereas that will be a test for Loring Park as he recorded his career best figure in the race three weeks ago. The regression off a new top cannot be discounted and should be considered when factoring odds and value with underlay potential.

No turf again today but unlike yesterday’s races, most in here are quite comfortable racing on dirt. This race will be contested at a mile seventy on the main track. With an abundance of speed in here I would normally look for a closer but few in here really qualify in my mind. I will go with 5-EYE OF THE CAT, though I think there’s a strong possibility that he’ll scratch. He has had one win on turf but he did break his maiden on Polytrack. Plus, he can close a bunch when he fires. 4-SPALDING STROLL is another likely to come on late. He’s been primarily facing Iowa breds but he did break his maiden here in April. Would expect 2-RAVE ON to grab the early lead. There is plenty of other speed in the race but he is capable of staying on. He wired the field the last time he ran in a race that was moved from turf to dirt. 6-MY BROTHER CAM is another who wired the field when he ran in a race originally scheduled for turf. That happened in last race. It might happen again. 

Manley will pick this spot for #2 SILVER QUARTERS as he fits this condition perfectly to return in after more than a year away from the track. They return in this spot where they can race protected and showing some additional positive signs with recent works and live rider with Baird aboard. As far as the surface change, he will return to the dirt and tough to knock any of his main track efforts and handled the dirt. He even has his debut experience here at Hawthorne to support him in this race, a strong BTL effort with trouble and showing a strong gallop out following the sprint distance. 

#7 GITA’S LAD is proven at this condition, surface and distance returning off the layoff for Hernandez. It should be noted that he was entered twice during the month of August at HS Indy and a vet scratch from both of those races. #4 LOOK AWAY could surprise at a price as he makes his second start off the layoff and making a positive distance change with the STRETCH (OptixNOTES) out in distance.

7-GITA’S LAD gets a minor nod. He’s racing for the first time since June and his recent drills haven’t been sharp but he’s always been sharp on this track and he thrives at the distance. 1-DIAMOND MAXIMUS has been in good form for a while. However, he’s shown little on this track and he’s winless in nine starts this year. 2- SILVER QUARTERS is another coming off a layoff but his drills are better than those of Diamond Maximus and his connections make a pretty tough team. 

#4 LADY ATLANTIC could also be overlooked off her current form with the recent running lines and finishing position. As far as her form cycle she is one a progressive pattern and moving forward into this race should be sitting on a peak effort. #5 KHOZYS CROWN required class relief off her local races and finds that class change today that should see her move up at this claiming level. 

#3 APOLLO U ANYWHERE had a pace advantage according to OptixPLOT lone in Quad I and ran to the data taking the field gate-to-wire on October 15^th. The scenario could set up a favorable front end run once again and the pace pressure for this race could become easier with rival #14 LIL BIT TIPSEY unable to draw in as she is currently sitting on the AE. #7 INDAWIN recorded a win at this level holding in a blanket at the wire back on September 24^th. The timing coming back off that win for the October 7^th race going first off the claim was not ideal not was the start or the trip with all factors creating an excuse on the day and a role in the 6^th place result.

***With many in this field wheeling back from the October 15^th event two weeks ago here is the analysis for many of the runners as published on the Hawthorne website that day:

#10 LADY ATLANTIC was warm on September 25^th and could take a step forward off that race returning under similar conditions wheeling back in 20-days, a subtle second off pattern. #8 APOLLO U ANYWHERE holds a win at today’s claiming condition, surface and distance from last season and could be well meant showing back up today at Hawthorne for Max Quinonez, a barn that has sent out live runners to start the meet. The Hawthorne record could give her an edge today over #1 LIL BIT TIPSEY one that fits off her FanDuel form, though tends to run her stronger races over that course. #3 WANNA HAVE FUN has come back this season on the “slower” side compared to her 2021 and beyond form. She should move up on the cutback to a sprint and should be the right move and timing for her first off the claim though does require running back to her previous form in order to compete in this race. 

3-APOLLO YOU ANYWHERE should win right back. She was in good form downstate but went off at 7-1 in her first start of the meet despite the considerable success she always has here. She wired the field in that race. Seems likely to happen again. 8-ASHLEY ELIZABETH needed last. Swift mare won her previous two local appearances. After getting last under her belt, she’s going to be far more competitive. 2-COUGER isn’t really a closer but she might turn out to be the best closer in this speed-filled field. 

Value could sit with #3 KING CURLIN returning off the layoff to run here at Hawthorne. Vanden Berg has defaulted to this spot after failing to draw in off the AE at Keeneland last Saturday (10/22) in a Special Weight race on the turf. His numbers could appear on the softer side, though with all of those race figures recorded during his juvenile season, the maturity projection on improvement is in play making his sophomore debut. 

Maker will show up with a pair for this race with #4 DISCO also returning from a layoff. The intention was to debut earlier this year at Churchill Downs in a turf race, though that plan fell apart when the turf course was ruled out for season. Disco physically should improve on the shift to the turf and with the added ground. Despite the running line and 12^th place finishing position, he showed run including some early speed after a slow start and before the rider not asking him to run on late. 

Based on race par (OFR) Maker stablemate, #1 ROAN FOR THE ROSE will find subtle class relief showing up on this circuit at the Special Weight level from the $50k maiden claiming event three weeks ago at Keeneland. Overall there was not much in terms of excuse on trip pressing the eventual race winner, first time starter, Morning Cup before losing ground. Roan for the Rose was by the public account projected to run better than the outcome going off as the race favorite and bet down from the assigned 8-1 morning line.

No turf so who will scratch? Would imagine that 3-KING CURLIN will stay. He didn’t show a thing in his two dirt races but one of them was a $500,000 stakes race. This will be a far easier field. Better is expected. Trainer Mike Maker was scheduled to send a couple for the race1-ROAN FOR THE ROSE and 4-disco but not either or both will make the trip without turf. Both, or either, could have a definite impact in this race. 10-AQUACAT finished second in his last two; one of them on the turf. Could be a contender in this.

#1 MUCHO carries a class edge shipping in for Ortiz and fits for today’s race off his current form. His class should allow for him to dictate his trip in this race dynamic and from the rail under Cabrera. The extended sprint distance (6.5f) of today’s event is one that Mucho has excelled at in the past and can be a specialty distance. 

Today’s distance should be considered for runners making the distance change from shorter (5.5-6f) especially those winning under favorable trips and stretching out off of those results.

#6 DOCTOR OSCAR as one of those coming back off a “lone” lead to win the October 7^th race and could find a more contentious pace and must hold his form on the three week turnaround. #7 LOVE THE NEST has the distance experience with the dominate win on October 15^th. While his current form fits right back, recording a similar effort could be a test wheeling back with the two week turnaround against arguably a stronger group and has yet to run on this type of shorter rest. 

#2 MOJO MAN is worth a mention for local connections and last seen in the Work All Week stakes back in June. Historically, Mojo Man has not only struggled to win off a layoff as an older horse, but also has struggled to run his top effort off that type of break and his top effort is one that could be required here.

7-LOVE THE NEST has been on quite a roll. He’s been victorious in six of his eight races and finished second in the other two. He simply ran away from the field in his local debut. He’s facing a tougher challenge here but think he’ll be up to the challenge. 1-MUCHO was a major player on the stakes circuit a couple years ago but his recent races haven’t been quite as sharp. However, his last appeared to be a step in the right direction. This might be an easier field than he’s been facing though it isn’t easy. Is 6-DOCTOR OSCAR really the second-best Minnesota bred in here behind Love the Nest. Love the Nest beat in the last two times they met but “Oscar” beat that rival four races back[RU1] . This colt won four of six this year and won his local debut under a hand ride. Could make things interesting.

Many in this field will return from the Molaro Stakes earlier this season. As far as the race result; Mojica rode a great race on #1 HUEY ATTACK stalking behind the duel and taking over from #7 W W COOKIE MONSTER, a game rival with those two together at the wire. #2 DEVILEYE was outrun with the very fast early pace and made up ground inside behind the top two finishing alongside #10 WHAT’S UP DUDE.

The race dynamic should be similar today according to OptixPLOT giving the early pace edge to W W Cookie Monster (Quad I Square - stronger finishing ability) over #4 FAST JACK (Quad I Circle) with Huey Attack and #9 READTHECLIFFNOTES chasing along with #6 WW HOTSHOT also in that first flight. Both Devileye and What’s Up Dude project to run on late (Large Quad IV Squares – closers with finishing ability) with that first flight to target.

Seven-year-old 7-W W COOKIE MONSTER really hasn’t showed down much. This 11-time winner rides a two-race win streak. Five of his wins came here from only 10 local starts. He could have his work cut out for him in this spot but his speed and consistency probably makes him the one to beat. 9-READTHECLIFFNOTES, another 7-year-old, might be better than ever. He narrowly lost last on turf which is far from his preferred surface. He’s turning back in distance and although he might be better in routes, he’s going to finish with a ton of run. 4-FAST JACK has lived up to his name. He scored six times in his seven races and finished second in the other. There’s little doubt that he’ll be sent and will try to wire the field. Might be able to do it despite all the other speed in this race.

Manley reclaimed #4 RIVER CACTUS likely with this meet in mind and his form here at Hawthorne. River Cactus started to lose his form after Oaklawn Park though could regain that form here returning this circuit, the 41-day freshening and for these familiar connections. 

#6 CARTE BLANCHE fits with current form and off a solid effort just getting run down late on October 9^th by #9 IRISH MAJOR. The pacesetter that day, #11 SHWEET PERSUATION can be upgraded from the race flow and in his form cycle making his second start of the circuit. The route distance is the unknown for #5 HATCHET CREEK though carried upside with a change in class finding a much softer race par this afternoon that the October 9^th event.

6-CARTE BLANCHE appears to be in better form than the rest. He led most of the way in last and was barely nipped at the wire. This field in 40 yards shorter. That could make the difference. Interesting to see that 4-RIVER CACTUS was claimed back by the Manley/McGovern connection. They had some success with this runner in the past. Wouldn’t be surprised if he woke back up. 2-KRAMDEN displayed considerable improvement in last. He fought for the lead much of the way and still held on for third. He’s making his third trip over the track. It could be a winning one.

Not a great race to kick off the day but means there could be some value in here. Wilma Mankiller could wire the field but the class drop off what wasn't a bad race scares me off a short price. Her Time Is Now has a mixed bag of drills leading to the debut. Maybe we get a price out of Getoutofmykitchen. She shortens in distance off a race where she showed speed and races for the second time out with Lasix and blinkers. Maybe a spot to improve.

This spots seems to have a decent amount of early pace. With that being said, the class drop into a winning spot for Future Victory makes sense. He ran well against allowance company over this course two back and takes the blinkers back off. Loring Park just also be running on late.

Gita's Lad scratched out of a spot where he figured on Friday for this shorter field.  He has been incredible over this track throughout his career and his tactical speed will put him in a perfect spot to contend the entire way.

This is a wide open race with what appears to be a decent amount of early pace. Both Lady Atlantic and Indawin raced into some traffic trouble last out and each could improve in here. Let's see if we can catch a price.

Not a ton of consistency in this group but some that have been better on the grass. Lawmaker has improved in his last couple and with the stretch in distance figures to show speed with E.T. in the saddle.

The battle of two of the best in Minnesota comes to Chicago as both Love the Nest and Dosctor Oscar are very talented three-year-olds.  Love the Nest ran a huge race in victory last out as the only horse who made a wide closing move to win on a day where inside speed was dominant. Doctor Oscar is very fast from the gate but looks to possibly face some early challenges.

Reaching a little here but may be worth a shot as Readthecliffnotes has shown versatility throughout his career. While his best races have been at two turns, he has competitive sprints that figure. He was all heart last out despite coming off a year-long layoff on the grass as the 6 1/2 furlong distance may be enough for him to rally late.

So hard to determine what kind of price we get on River Cactus as he returns to the Manley barn. He has a ton of back class but isn't being asked for too much in here off the claim. The fact that Manley went to Iowa to get this one back shows how he feels about the horse though.

P 10 Hail Christian 1 Stonebridge Rex 8 Capitano Italiano

T 5 Bella Bellini 8 When Dovescry 7 Atlanta

P 1 Test Of Faith 2 So Much More 3 Mikala

T 2 Jiggy Jog S 6 Fashion Schooner 4 Joviality S

P 10 Nikki Hall 6 Treacherous Dragon 1 Queen Of Success

T 4 Double Deceiver 5 Branded By Lindy 9 Cool Papa Bell

P 2 Bythemissal 8 Ponda Warrior 5 Pebble Beach

T 2 Fashion Frenzie 6 Jujubee 8 Back Of The Neck

P 6 Bulldog Hanover 3 Allywag Hanover 8 Abuckabett Hanover

P 9 American History 8 Carbine 7 Mappos Lion

P 8 No Free Lunch 6 Fabrizio 5 Legion Seelster

P 1 That’ll Be Sporty 3 Arukidinme Cabbie 10 Rays Kredit