Handicapper Tips & Picks

1^st 4 Midnight Pranks 7 Talladega 1 J J's Joker

1^st 4 Midnight Pranks 7 Talladega 1 J J's Joker

1^st 4 Midnight Pranks 7 Talladega 1 J J's Joker

1^st 4 Midnight Pranks 7 Talladega 1 J J's Joker

1^st 4 Midnight Pranks 7 Talladega 1 J J's Joker

2^nd 4 Parody 10 Sharp Tap 7 High Class

2^nd 4 Parody 10 Sharp Tap 7 High Class

3^rd 4 Towhead 2 The Alys Look 8 Tiny Temper

3^rd 4 Towhead 2 The Alys Look 8 Tiny Temper

4^th 3 Bo Derek 8 Girl Named Charlie 1 Lemon Bomb

4^th 3 Bo Derek 8 Girl Named Charlie 1 Lemon Bomb

5^th 7 Pyreness 1 Magnificent Mile 11 Rocket Can

6^th 2 Peacock Lass 1 Hoosier Philly 7 Fun And Feisty 

7^th 2 Golden Nugget 8 Joking Way 10 Winnemac Avenue

8^th 9 Frank's Honor 6 Tapit's Conquest 10 B Minor 

9^th 9 Pretty Mischievous 5 Mustang Lady 2 Promise Of Hope 

10^th 1 Top Recruit 5 Two Phil's 6 Red Route One 

11^th 2 Desert Wolf 8 Parkway 7 Denington 

1^st 3 Jamming Cameron 5 Aw Ite 1 Baltic Fleet

2^nd 6 Joe Brrr 4 Chrome’s Right 5 Biko

3^rd 2 Untapped Energy 3 Silver Package 6 Fashion Frame

4^th 1 Heraclitus 5 Justin Front 7 Championship Alley

5^th 2 My Buddy B 8 Kiltoom 7 Ain’t Straight

6^th 1 Amicus Brief 2 Sheltowee’s Bali 5 Limit Up 

7^th 5 Pao De Queijo 6 Loaded Once More 7 Curt’s Angel

8^th 7 Diva Dixie 8 Golden Sweetie 9 Sacred Sunday 

The main players in this race will engage in a rematch from October 14^th. The winner of the race, #5 SAMURITA sat the right trip stalking off the pacesetters with first run. In addition to trip, she had upside in her form cycle with improvement projected from the opening day, September 23^rd race and wide trip. She fits right back in this race; however she does not hold the same form cycle edge today as last out. 

That form cycle edge is present on #1 GHAALEB’S DOMAIN as she makes her second start of this cycle, at the claiming level and wearing blinkers. She had gate issues (trouble) before getting sent into the lead from the rail on September 6^th at Fan Duel and stayed on as the “best of the speed” over rival #3 SNOOTY to hold third earlier this month. Trip favors Ghaaleb’s Domain today as draws the rail, another change from the outer post on October 14^th and should allow her to be the controlling speed (Quad I Square) right from the start and the one to catch.

#2 FIELD DAISY finished alongside Samarita and Snooty in the blanket for minors on September 23^rd and held her form with improvement on October 14^th that makes her a fit back at this condition. Her recent rider, Loveberry is not riding here this afternoon, as far as any questions with the rider change to Mojica.

Keep trying to beat 5-SAMARITA in my head but can’t seem to do it. One of only two three-year-olds in the field, she’s still eligible for this despite winning four times. She beat the most likely contenders in here in her last start. Seems likely to do it again. 2-FIELD DAISEY finished second in her last two at this level but she’s a six-year-old still trying to secure her third victory. It’s been a couple years since she won. Probably won’t happen today but certainly figures in the money. 1-GHALEEB’S DOMAIN is probably the quickest member of the field but she tired fighting for the lead in last, her first race with blinkers, and she’s facing that same foe again today. However, this is her second race after a layoff. Could be all tuned up and ready to go.

#2 KATHAAN ran a BTL race on debut and just tough luck with the trip rider TACTIC- moving inside and unable to get up in time finishing together at the wire with race winner, Sign of Peace. #1 PERFECTLY PROUD finished behind that top pair though GALLOP+ out alongside them and showed a lot of run, much like her strong debut back in January. The pattern of slow starts in her two races to date have left her compromised on trip with too much to do late. The blinkers will be added today and the change looking to improve on her gate behavior. 

#4 COWGIRL FRANKIE also has a gate history of slow starts coming into this race. Outside of that she has run and from a physical standpoint should handle the TURF. As far as placement, she will be stepping up in class today, not only with the circuit switch but the change from statebred company back in against open – the placement with the 51-day break could suggest a “prep” by the connections though an honest effort today is still projected.

Pretty sure we’ll be on turf today so I’ll play if that way. 2-KATHAAN should be tough today. She was favored to win her career debut and came within a half length of doing just that. She’ll be tracking what should be a lively pace. Expect the turf to still be a little soft which could tire out those vying for the lead. Believe she’ll be on the lead by midstretch and will just have to hold off the other closers. Love to watch deep closers like 1-PERFECTLY PROUD. They come flying down the stretch and seem like they are going to run by everybody. However, often the race is just too short, no matter the distance. Was impressed this filly ran as well as she did off the layoff when making her local debut. She finished about five lengths behind top pick in that start but she figures to finish far closer in this one. 7-TANGO CITY finished second in her last two. However, she’s making her 17^th start as a maiden. Will she graduate. 3-SUMMER SWINGER is an interesting runner. As a quick sprinter stretching out, she’s likely to grab a quick early lead. Her lone previous turf effort left a lot to be desired, she didn’t display any speed at all, but willing to give her another chance.

Current form, recency and race shape could create an edge for #3 JETS A GINNIN today. Her form stacks up as a contender returning to this condition as she will find class relief from the higher race par (OFR) from the October 8^th local start. 

#6 MAYSTART could be overlooked in this race and carries upside in her form cycle improving for this third start back off the layoff. She returned in August on the turf at HS Indy wearing front wraps and wore the wraps on September 24^th to follow a removal today. With each start her form and OptixFIG/GRADES have improved and shows a solid local drill on October 17th to support another move forward here.

Have to think 3-JETS A GINNIIN holds a slight advantage. She exits a race from which many runners went on to run in a stakes. She’s had seven starts on this track with four wins and seven victories from her 15 starts at the distance. 2-STOPSHOPPINGAMY is another that has a good deal of success, both at the distance and on this track. She had three useful drills since her last start. Looks like the main competition. 4-ISABELLACANNETELLA is hard to read. She used to be FAST, I mean really fast. But she’s been off for 10 months and her recent drills haven’t impressed. Might still get the lead but no idea how long she’ll stay there.

Vanden Berg will wheel right back in a week with #6 THE BOSS FACTOR on the class drop. While the barn sent out the October 21^st turf sprint winner, Follow the Signs, likely more was expected from The Boss Factor. That could play as role with the timing and class drop for a horse in the best current form he can be in and looking for him to find the right level to win. The class drop will also be in play for #8 KREWE CHIEF dropping back in for a tag after his win streak here earlier this season and looks to be the right move for this horse. 

#2 WINGING WAYS will make his first start off the claim for Broberg and could be in the right time and place to compete. His previous connections were all over the place with surface, distance and class running him back on shorter rest between starts. The 28-days since the race and claim could be the subtle change he requires to show up with a top effort. The timing is also noted for #4 REDNECKERTHANYOU on the three week turnaround from a new top effort and a taxing (HARD) effort to win on October 9^th, where some regression is expected today. 

Trainer Ralph Martinez looked to be using the higher claiming race on September 20^th at HS Indy as a form cycle reset for #9 PACHI following the win just weeks earlier at FanDuel. He is capable on his best day though could still be a race out as he returns from a 40-day break, does not show any published works, and also has some challenges in terms of trip with the outside post for today’s shorter 5.5f distance.

6-THE BOSS FACTOR drops a couple levels and returns to the main track. He hasn’t shown much since his first start for this barn but he just might awaken at this level. 3-REDNECKERTHANYOU was a sharp winner of last. He dueled for the lead throughout and still had something left for the finish. However, this is a bit saltier group with a few runners that enjoy the front end. He has his work cut out for him. 9-PACHI drops to an easier level. He showed little in last in Indiana but beat better than these in his previous start at Fanduel. He was running well at this level here in the spring. Can surprise.

#10 TAPE TO TAPE looks to standout in this field with the edge on class, speed figures and current form exiting a STRONG race on September 16^th at Gulfstream Park. His early speed also creates a pace advantage as shown on OptixPLOT in Quad I. His pace advantage could be further upgraded with the other prime Quad I Contention runners, #11 FOOCH and #12 HURTS SO GOOD currently sitting on the AE with potential to not draw into this race. 

10-TAPE TO TAPE could be the quickest of these. He does tend to tire but this could be the easiest field he has yet to face. He was stakes placed on synthetic track so we know he can run. Might get the distance in this race. Don’t let 11-FOOCH’s last race at Belterra fool you. She went off as the favorite but took up after getting shut off and wound up finishing fifth, though moved to fourth through DQ. That was also his first race in a year and a half. He was good in 2019 and 2020 and the fact that his sharp connections thought enough of him to ship him here and enter him in an allowance might be a tell. 8-KENNESAW is the most accomplished runner in here, though he’s still eligible for this condition. He finished in the money in eight of his 10 sprints at this distance, with two wins and five seconds. 

#7 TEE BURNS has tactical speed that could create a pace advantage as he will return from the layoff looking for a win. His form trailed off after the local April races and after lugging out (NO_LINE) was vet scratch from an allowance race in June at HS Indy and has been off since. The return to the claiming level and showing up for the $20k tag is not necessarily taking negatively in this case as they return to the level where he was claimed back in the spring. They are not taking any suspicious drop for this return, come back with a steady work tab and live rider in Julio Felix to suggest they could be live and do not necessarily want to just let this horse go on the cheap. 

#4 SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY returns from the FLOW aided win as the favorite in the October 8^th common race where some regression off the favorable dynamic and new top along with the HARD effort could be projected wheeling back in three weeks. Rival #1 ALPINE GHOST raced at odds of 5.6-1 in that October 8^th event, however he was favored in the Daily Double will pays. Alpine Ghost raced up close to the early pace, a flow upgrade, before losing ground. 

#3 LUCKY SHOT will return from another layoff and with the class drop returning to this circuit. He has races on his best day that would fit on par, though has not always been the most consistent especially when it comes to running off any type of break.

2-COCO BRAVADO has a lot of thirds to his credit but he does have a chance to improve. He was claimed from last by a barn that does well with their first-time claims. Like most in here he’s moving up in claiming price but he just might have the most upside. 4-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY posted a strong victory in his local debut and finished about four lengths ahead of top choice. He hadn’t been in the best of form prior to that race but his previous five starts were on the lawn, though he did win one of those. In any case, he won the last two times he ran on dirt. Can do it again. 7-TEE BURNS makes his first start since May. He didn’t beat a rival in that last start but it was another contested on the weeds. He won his previous two starts here. Recent drills haven’t impressed but he probable deserves the benefit of the doubt.

The early pace projected to be contested from #4 GARBO SPEAKS, #8 JITTERS and #9 MINI DRESS. These three all shown as Circles (lack of finish) and could be vulnerable late after taking pace pressure. #1 CAIRO SUMMER should be tracking along with #7 RAP STAR closer to the pace with a slight finishing ability (Square) edge over the Circles. 

#11 RUNAWAY A. TRAIN could sit in the perfect spot stalking right off that first flight (Quad II) and with finishing ability to take first run on the other closers (Quad IV Squares) #6 VOODOO FIRE and #10 SENORITA AURORA that will be running on late. 

#3 IRISH HALO returns from the October 16^th common race at this condition with the show finish that was FLOW aided with the race shape slowing late. #5 ZENCHUA SKY could be overlooked from that event and with a subtle trip given the dynamic and the timing of the ride to offer value here. A move forward is projected for Zenchua Sky in this second start of the meet with buried form and numbers that fit on par from the Prairie Meadows races this season.

#2 HOOSIER GOLD CASE has races that make her competitive in this spot on her best day. She has shown some progression and subtle trips with the inside post this season. That inside draw will be a challenge today as she prefers and seems to need to run outside (or in front) of horses for that top effort and Tavares will be required to work that trip.

3-IRISH HALO finished a half length behind Runaway A Train in their last race but she was closing even faster. The extra distance is also likely to help her and she’s going to go off at a longer price. 11-RUNAWAY A TRAIN just missed in her local debut. She stalked the early pace but came on strong at the finish to lose by a vanishing head. That race was at five and a half. If at today’s distance of six she might have run by them all. 1-CAIRO SUMMER was in too tough in last but drops to a more reasonable level today. She owns better speed than most and could take advantage of it from the rail. 

#3 JUST RIGHT MIKE is very logical coming back from a similar conditioned race on September 30^th staying on as the BOS (best of the speed) and should find a similar trip today as a Quad I Square. The lower 19 SpeedRate could assist Just Right Mike in this case as the Contention is higher with the “Fire” rating and he is one of nearly half of the field positioned in Quad I. 

#8 TWO COOKIE RULE moves from Quad I Standard (current form) to a Quad II Square on Surface/Distance with that stalking trip potentially beneficial with the “Fire” and the ability to use his closing (Square) kick. #11 IRISH TUFF finds a similar Plot position and fits with his races this season, though could be on a declining pattern and requires a top effort with this N3 field to consider with value (or lack of) on the board.

#9 ART HEIST also has a negative pattern of gate issues and slow (SLOG) starts coming into this race. That requires value and that number could be there with the public dismissing him off the recent running lines and finishing positions. He should move up in this race off the October 8^th higher level (higher OFR/purse) conditioned claiming race and the TROUBLE in his trip playing a role in the 5^th place finish. His stablemate #6 PO BOY (Quad I) should assist in keeping the early “Fire” pace honest.

The “Fire” Contention should assist #1 FINAL CALL with their late run and another off the pace trip is expected from this runner given the rail draw and history of slow (SLOG) starts.

8-TWO COOKIE RULE hasn’t been in the best of form but he is dropping to the lowest level of his career and turning back in distance. He’s been showing early zip in recent routes but running out of gas. However, at this level and distance he could finish with a ton of run. 11-IRISH TUFF won his first start of the meet and just missed, at this level, in last. He likes the front end but it’s his ability to close, especially from this outside post with plenty of other speed to his inside, that makes him dangerous here. 4-TODDLES is among the best of the speed. Like top choice, he’s dropping to a career low. Could make all the difference.

Martinez seemed to be using the HS Indy races to reset the form cycle of runners that had performed well and peaked during the FanDuel meet. #8 LITTLE MIGHTY MAN fits that pattern peaking off the pair of races in September and was kept protected without winning intent at HS Indy on October 11^th. Excusing that race earlier this month, Little Might Man has had 37-days to recover since the September 23^rd win. 

#11 HIGH HERO also shows up with a positive form cycle pattern in his second start off the layoff, a repeating improvement pattern. High Hero looked to be “given” the October 1^st race coming back after 105-days and asked only for fitness with the half-mile run. Centeno will take back over today and showing some intent with that change looking for their second winner together this meet.

#12 OUTRUN THE POSSE also projects to improve (PREP) from the October 1^st common race. The rider that day took hold (TACTIC-)and did not ask (NO_PUSH) for early run with Outrun the Posse showing a late kick (CLOSE) one that is tougher to see in the running line and finishing position.

8-LITTLE MIGHTY MAN looks like the quickest of the quick. He was outgunned when taking on starter company at Indiana in last but he did wire the fields in his previous two starts. 1-W W KAN DO has been in great form but hasn’t been able to get across the finish line first. He finished in the money in his last six including third-place finishes in his last five Hawthorne starts. Maybe this will be the day he finally breaks through. 7-BAM BAM CAM is another, like top choice, still eligible for this race because his wins came at lower claiming levels. Also, he’s another with good early speed. They might be vying for the lead from the start but if one of them gets the jump on the other, he could be long gone. 

Basically the same field gets back together after facing off a couple of weeks ago. No reason to think anything aside from that outcome won't happen once again.

Finally back on the turf course! Kathaan rallied late for a near miss last out. She's right back in the same spot and at the same distance.  Looks to be a good amount of pace to chase in here as well.

Another race much like the opener where numerous horses return out of the same race and are all the top contenders.  Jets A Ginnin will be the one to beat off a solid effort last out. There looks to be a good amount of pace to stalk but she won't provide a ton of value.

This is a turf sprint where there is a good amount of early speed. With that, Kennesaw looks to be the one to roll on late. He's 8/10 in the money at 5 furlongs and is likely to improve in his second start back off the rest.

Curious to see what happens to Coco Bravado with the barn change today.  He ran on well in his last and should be closing some ground late once again. Like the move of Esquivel in the saddle as well.

Worry that the outside post will be a lot to overcome for Runaway A. Train today. That's why I gave the nod to Rap Star.  She's won two of her last three with both at 5 1/2 furlongs. The move back to three quarters is the one concerning move today.

Searching for a little bit of a price in here as Irish Tuff gets stuck outside. New Dice has raced well throughout the summer and had a tough start last out which resulting in a closing move that came too late. Clear sailing here puts him in the mix.

Hoping there is a bit of a pace battle upfront as I'm looking for a closing move of Outrun the Posse at a good price. He ran well two races back and just moved too late in his last. In with an upset threat today!