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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri November 4th, 2022

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Full Card

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:53 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Whiskey Plank - 5/2 8 Sierra Hotel - 4/1 6 Dynablue - 20/1

1-WHISKEY PLANK has been in great form for months. This versatile runner is equally adept on the lead or coming from off the pace. He finished second in his local debut after leading from the start. Could do one better today. 8-SIERRA HOTEL completes the sprint-route-sprint cycle. He finished close behind top choice two races back and narrowly lost his last. Would expect him to display even better speed with the stretch out. 6-DYNABLUE will probably do his best running late. Drops from allowance company. He won the last two times he faced claimers. Might be able to do it again.

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:53 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The “FireContention paired with the high 89 SpeedRate should set up for the Quad II/IV stalkers #4 IOYA AGAIN and #6 DYNABLUE. In addition to pace/trip, both horses have current form this feel and class to fit at today’s condition. They have recency on their side, something #5 FLATOUT WINNER will give up coming off the 76-day layoff and from a taxing (HARD) effort finishing in a win photo back on August 21st.

#7 TWOKO BAY is positioned in Quad I, though is not necessarily his preferred RunStyle. If he can return to a stalking trip that can benefit him in today’s race dynamic. Further conditioning should be on his side exiting the October 8th race and subtle trip with the ground loss showing run in what appeared visually as a PREP as he made his return to this circuit.

#9 FIRST MASAMUNE also appeared to be using the October 16th race as a PREP returning from the 121-day layoff at the sprint distance. The added ground (ROUTER) is what he wants to do and while the intent seems present, he has the race dynamic as noted above against him as a Quad I/III Circle. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:35 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Izzy in a Tizzy - 6/1 7 Harmon Killer Brew - 5/2 3 King Zion - 8/1

5-IZZY IN A TIZZY drops. He has been mostly racing over his head recently. He finished second in his two previous Hawthorne starts but that race took place in 2020. However, with the drop to the right level, there’s a good chance that he’ll awaken. 7-HARMON KILLER BREW is another dropping in class. Unlike top pick, he has always faced better. Could hit it out of the pack with his first trip at the right level. 3-KING ZION stretches back out. He’s making his 29th start. However, he has finished in the money in his last five route races. Not sure he can win this but could be a factor in the gimmicks.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:35 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The connections will come right back in two weeks with #6 KEEN RESPONSE projecting improvement in his second start of the meet. On October 22nd, he lost his footing (TROUBLE_S) coming out of the gate and was compromised in the race dynamic. Going one race back to September 4th, he ran a BTL race in the fourth place result at Canterbury Park with the OptixFIG siting in today’s OFR (race par) and should be able to transfer to the main track. #7 HARMON KILLER BREW follows a similar race-to-race pattern with the surface switch and class drop – those changes in play to assist him to compete in this event.

#5 IZZY IN A TIZZY was a late scratch under similar conditions to today’s race back on October 7th. He broke through the gate and was scratched at 7-2 post time odds after opening up as the early wagering favorite.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 4:15 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Beyond Proper - 4/5 4 Summer Day - 7/2 1 Wanda Strong - 15/1

Don’t know that 2-BEYOND PROPER is a standout but she has been facing somewhat better, for the most part, and her recent. speed figures suggest that she is the fastest of these. 4-SUMMER DAY might be the most consistent of these. She’s had 16 turf races and finished in the money nine times, including two wins. However, she doesn’t always run her best race. But, do expect her to be coming on late. 1-WANDA STRONG meets Illinois breds on the turf for the first time. Not really expecting her to go for the early lead but she is quicker than most in here. Broke her maiden in her last start. Could be a surprise winner in this one.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 4:15 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#10 SUMMER BELLE is light number wise though is also a lightly raced sophomore filly with upside on the turf. She has run her most competitive races in the limited TURF starts and projects to improve with the surface switch back to the grass today. Lopez did not use her speed or give her the best chance to compete (TACTIC-) on October 15th and should be more assertive today. 

Her older stablemate #4 SUMMER DAY has the established form and numbers to compete and could benefit from the class change returning to statebred company. The rider change to Loveberry could also be key as she has shown distance limitations and requires the right field and trip to overcome the stamina hurdle. Loveberry was aboard for her most “recent” going back to November 2020, an Optional Claiming race over this course and distance, with a lower OFR to today’s race.  

#2 BEYOND PROPER fits as a logical type in this race. She will find class relief on the DROP from the Illinois Princess stakes last month while remaining at the statebred condition in her second start of this current form cycle.

#1 WANDA STRONG has a “strong” Plot position/shape in this event represented by a Large Square -strongest representative late speed in this field. The connections had her entered in an open company allowance race last Friday though scratched with the races coming off-the-turf.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 5:00 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 Mud Island - 7/2 2 Lord Dylan - 6/1 7 Lapis Lazuli - 6/1

Going to give 3-MUD ISLAND the benefit of the doubt. Maiden winner of last at Delaware makes his first start versus winners and does it at a reasonable level. His chances could be compromised by all the other speed in here but he just might be able to hold them off. 2-LORD DYLAN, another that graduated in his last start, generated the highest recent speed figure of any in here. He got claimed by another sharp barn from that effort. Doesn’t seem quite as quick as top choice but should be lurking close behind. 7-LAPIS LAZULI drops off the claim. It’s been over two months since his last race and he’s had only a couple modest drills since that race but he does seem to fit with the drop in price.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 5:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Robertson will show up with a pair of shippers in this race: #9 JOHNNY UP could be overlooked off the recent running line and finishing position. He broke slow on September 15th and was not asked for run in that race and the connections also did not appear well-meant on the day wheeling back in just 11-days to run on closing day. Intent could be positive returning to the N2 claiming condition and softer race par. #3 MUD ISLAND set the pace from the inside (BOS, SAVED) and was all out to hold flipping leads nearing the wire in a tight photo finish.

#6 BIRDIE MACHINE is certainly capable, however does hold some form concerns that are tougher to justify a shorter price showing up with the class drop off a 51-day layoff and showing just one published work since that race. His former stablemate, #7 LAPIS LAZULI, claimed by Riecken on August 25th and off a subtle trip to project improvement off that 5th place finish. Lapis Lazuli finds reasonable class relief from his races this season and in addition holds local experience that fits as a contender for this race.

#1 BRIAN’S WAY has shown speed figure progression this season at FanDuel and will be required to transition that form back to Hawthorne. The connections had him running above condition at the N3 level back on September 24th and shifts back to the N2 condition here though still finds a class test as today’s race par is higher than that most recent event. The same progress is required for #2 LORD DYLAN stepping up off the maiden win last month.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Forward Curve - 5/1 10 Son of Grace - 9/2 12 Big Blue - 4/1

6-FORWARD CURVE might not get a clear lead or an early lead at all but he does own competitive speed and seems to possess good staying power. He ran well in all his turf starts and graduated in his only local race on the weeks. Should be a top contender. 10-SON OF GRACE is another who graduated in his last Hawthorne grass start. He had some competitive turf races in Virginia over the summer. Might be meeting a bit better in his Hawthorne return but could be up to the challenge. 12-BIG BLUE drew the outside post but he’s another in good form. Unlike the top pair, he’s likely to be tracking the pace, especially from this post but he could finish fastest of all.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN will eventually find the right trip and pace for his RunStyle and today could present that scenario – Quad II/IV Square with Sun Contention and higher than average 65 SpeedRate. He is far from the “most likely” winner of this race though a longshot that is not without a chance and one that can stick around at the double digits for the minors. #2 MYSTIFIER fits as a more “logical” type with buried form coming into this race with the poor rider TACTIC- on September 14th and a TRAFFIC trip lacking racing ROOM on September 23rd and can IMPROVE off that race and 4th place result returning under similar conditions.

Part of that early pace assessment includes the AE runners #13 WATCHNTHEGIRLSGOBY and #14 IRONMAN RICHIE, two horses that impact the race shape whether they are in or out of this field. #4 CHICKEN TRUCK fits logically in this race as is with the class drop and off his current form along OptixFIG in OFR with those two failing to draw in could make his path easier in this race. #12 BIG BLUE could also find an upgrade with the potential scratches in this race shape with a similar Plot position to Chicken Truck. The right trip and handling with the outside post to avoid ground loss early or taking back and left with too much to do late are his main challenges here in addition to requiring a top effort.

Additional front runners, #5 KANITHAPPEN, #6 FORWARD CURVE and #7 ANGEL’S MAGIC should move up shifting back to the turf, the preferred surface from October 14th. Trip/pace is noted as they share a similar RunStyle and preferred trip as part of the Quad I Contention.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 5:52 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Big Sport - 7/2 10 Twirling Roses - 5/2 7 Kierkegaard - 5/1

4-BIG SPORT has been freshened after a dull effort at Churchill but this gelding could be ready to reclaim his crown as the top starter allowance runner at Hawthorne. He’s had eight starts this year with four wins and three seconds. Last year he won eight of 10. He scored in eight of his 15 starts on this track as well as 11 of 22 at the distance. Will be tough. The red-hot 10-TWIRLING ROSES can make it three in a row. Winner of last two at this level will track the early pace and then finish with a flourish. Can make it three in a row. 7-KIERKEGARD has been extra sharp since getting claimed by this barn. They raced his seven times and he finished second or better in six of them, including an allowance victory in his last start. He’s meeting a pretty salty group today but he just might be able to pull off a minor upset.

 

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 5:52 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 BIG SPORT figures as a contender in this race and even could be assessed as the favorite. He is proven over this course, distance and at this starter allowance condition here at Hawthorne and has a favorable RunStyle for today’s race shown as a Quad I Square. As far as the 51-day layoff he was entered and scratched out of a $20k starter allowance on October 15th at Keeneland. 

#7 KIERKEGAARD is upgraded on Standard (Current form) Plot stalking behind Big Sport and the other Quad I Circles, runners that should be vulnerable late as Circles representing the lack of finishing ability compared to the other runners (Squares) with a similar RunStyle.

#10 TWIRLING ROSES could also again take up a shorter price role coming off the pair of wins this season at this starter allowance condition. While he is capable, he has benefit from favorable trips and pairing OptixFIG “tops” in those races could signal regression. Twirling Roses shows Plot position is similar today to rival #6 JACK’S ADVANTAGE one that should be a higher number on the board and value as a result.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 6:18 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Dream Keeper - 5/2 6 Happy Camper - 7/2 8 Mr. Solo - 4/1

4-DREAM KEEPER gets the nod. Fleet gelding often returns from layoffs but he seems to thrive on the time off. His biggest obstacle could be the abundance of other speed in here. He is at his best when alone on the lead and he might not be able to attain that today. 6-HAPPY CAMPER could be best equipped to take advantage of a contested early pace. He seems to do his best running late. He hasn’t raced since May but has been working well for his return. Like that 8-MR SOLO doesn’t seem to quit. He’s not especially fast but he’s a grinder, just the kind you want in your vertical gimmicks.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 6:18 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This is a tricky race where a scenario could play out in many different ways to yield a completely different result One scenario could see #1 PATH TO SUCCESS as the controlling speed to win on the front end. The basis for that scenario assesses the Surface/Distance Plot where Path to Success is a Quad I Square with #4 DREAM KEEPER the other Quad I Square, though does not have the current form or recency as his rival returning from a 128-day layoff. Path to Success has the edge in current form and in his own right with a subtle, hidden progressive pattern that could have him sitting on a top effort today. 

That same scenario also could allow for the early Contention (Fire) to assist the Quad IV runners, #3 PROMISING SHOES, #6 HAPPY CAMPER (layoff runner), and #7 BUREAU pace to target and run at late. #5 PAPA’S LUCKY SEVEN is downgraded to a Circle on Surface/Distance and with the class ride shifting back to the main track.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 6:44 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Souper Fortune - 9/2 6 El Asesino - 7/2 8 Devil's Rule - 8/1

5-SOUPER FORTUNE gets a small nod. He’s taking on better here after just scoring in a non-winners of three but like the way he won that race. 6-EL ASESINO is another coming off a win, his first of the year. He had narrowly missed in his previous start. Would be no surprise. 8-DEVIL’S RULE hasn’t been in terrible form, he’s just been overmatched. Drops to what appears to be his lowest level of the year. Can awaken.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 6:44 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The race shape today should benefit runners with tactical speed. #8 DEVIL’S RULE has “hidden” early speed positioned in Quad I and can be upgraded with the class DROP in his third start of the meet and the IMPROVE projected from the September 30th race. 

#10 AWESOME FAMILY returns to this condition off a solid B- OptixGRADE run and could show more tactical speed with the outside draw, rider change and shift to the 6f distance. #4 IMPERIAL MOMENT is also capable of showing early speed (Quad I) upgraded in terms of his RunStyle making his second start at this restricted $5k claiming level and intent with the blinkers on.

#11 THREE TIME CHARMER was a late gate scratch in that same October 16th common race. He race fits with his early speed, though lacks finish (Circle) compared to the others and that could be problematic for him late as he is likely forced to use early for position from the outside post and with Quad I rivals #5 SOUPER FORTUNE and #9 WILLOW RIDGE to his inside.

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri November 4th, 2022

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:53 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Sierra Hotel - 4/1 1 Whiskey Plank - 5/2 4 Ioya Again - 9/2

Pace makes the race and I am worried a bit as the inside two horses are the only real speed in here. It is why I didn't put Ioya Again on top. Sierra Hotel has a great stalking style and has run equally as well for his new barn since being claimed. Let's see if he can track and pounce in this spot.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:35 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 I'm Your Valentine - 6/1 6 Keen Response - 7/2 7 Harmon Killer Brew - 5/2

This race is really tough because the two that should take a majority of the action (6&7) are both switching surfaces along with taking the class drop. When there's so many unknowns it may be worth looking for one that is making changes while at a price. I'm Your Valentine remains on the dirt but this one stretches out and adds Lasix. The last field was far too tough as the results shows but this bunch is much easier.  Maybe there's a shot he scampers away from the gate a tries to wire this bunch in a race that doesn't appear to have much in regards to early pace.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 4:15 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Beyond Proper - 4/5 4 Summer Day - 7/2 3 Stormy Empire - 15/1

This race really appears to be a race for place on paper. Beyond Proper has three open-company wins and comes out of the state-bred Illini Princess in her last where she raced into some traffic trouble. At a price it may be worth using Stormy Empire. She is long overdue for a win at this level and may be better on the grass. The move to Tavares maybe wakes her up a bit too.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 5:00 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Lapis Lazuli - 6/1 6 Birdie Machine - 5/1 3 Mud Island - 7/2

Likely the toughest race on this card to figure out. There's a good amount of pace in here to go with horses that are inconsistent and looking to build some confidence.  Toss in the 5 1/2 furlongs and it makes things more confusing. Lapis Lazuli has one start over the track and held his own against much better this spring. A new barn here but also gets the rider back who rode that race in May. Maybe he is a sleeper at a price.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 5:52 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Kierkegaard - 5/1 10 Twirling Roses - 5/2 4 Big Sport - 7/2

You get two horses in here that love this track and will take a ton of action in Twirling Roses and Big Sport. Emigh rode Twirling Roses in his last two victories but has to shift to Big Sport here. Big Sport has been great at Hawthorne but may have some company upfront early. Kierkegaard could be in a perfect spot as he has faced a pair of solid allowance fields in his last two and was impressive in victory last out. His running style puts him in a perfect spot early and he should be charging late.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 6:18 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Dream Keeper - 5/2 8 Mr. Solo - 4/1 2 Blazen Road - 5/1

Not a huge field here and also not a lot of early pace in this race. Dream Keeper has raced well over this track in the past and comes out of a tough race in Indiana last out. He will likely be on or near the lead today and shouldn't have to work too hard to be there. Mr. Solo ran a big race at this level at a big price last out. Despite drawing outside, with only eight in here he should also be able to clear and contend while close as well.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 6:44 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 El Asesino - 7/2 10 Awesome Family - 6/1 3 Sir Acealot - 6/1

After running very well at two distance that weren't quite his best, El Asesino finally gets a race at three quarters which is right in his wheelhouse.  There's not a ton of speed in here and while he won't be on the lead, El Asesino won't be too far back either. Felix has ridden him well and I like that the connections aren't asking him to do too much in this spot.

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri November 4th, 2022

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Breeders Cup

Keeneland Race 1

Post Time 10:55 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 BUSINESS MODEL also has some hidden early speed along with class and OptixFIG that stack up on par for this race. He brings that progressive form here to Keeneland while reuniting with a live rider on this circuit, Gaffalione. They should be looking for a trip saving ground and tracking behind #8 OPEN ROAD and #9 SEARCH ENGINE, these two on the “engine” especially with the projection that the Keeneland main track will play favorably to early speed. The trip for Business Model should be similar to #6 B DAWK, listed as the morning line favorite and one that does not offer value in that role and could even be short on a regression pattern wheeling back in 13-days. Things would need to play fair on the surface and contentious early for #2 ETHEREAL ROAD one that should be running late, though another with shorter ML value on the win end. 

Keeneland Race 2

Post Time 11:30 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#10 AFFIRMATIVE LADY is given a follow and can project upside from her debut here last month. #8 VIVID DREAMS will make her belated debut after working 10 flat at the sale back in March. She has been given time and steady works with the likely intention to debut in this type of spot. #7 BLACK FOREST has run some of the faster races though has come up short as the favorite without excuse and to this point has shown what she can do. #2 MAGICAL SONG could get a lot of attention off her pedigree though is not the most efficient mover and could be the reason for the delay to her debut as one that was working over the summer at Saratoga. 

Keeneland Race 3

Post Time 12:05 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#11 MARSALIS could hold a pace advantage in here though not one that should be hidden by any means as the expected heavy favorite in this race. #3 SPARTAN ARMY and #6 PRO OXIDANT are lightly raced improving types to fit with this field. #9 LET MY PEOPLE GO has run at this condition and come up short though has had some subtle trips along the way and one that at the number can be around for a share.

Keeneland Race 4

Post Time 12:40 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 AMERICAN LION figures the horse to beat and should improve with distance. He projects to be one of the shorter priced runners on the card coming into this race with a lot of hype and will be tested all around with #11 TRES SOLES and #12 PROTÉGÉ in this field – the other runners being a cut below.

Keeneland Race 5

Post Time 1:15 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This race overall lacks a clear standout with a case to be made for any in the field. Looking at some prices: #10 ALWAYS ABOVE is a lightly raced improving type that has shown legit stamina. That going back to his early days and has been able to transfer his form and figures both on the turf and main track. The outside post and coming into this race as a three-year-old could get dismissed and offer the required value to play. #2 NEXT has yet to run his best race on a fast track and isolating those two races, he has little chance here. Those are only two races and while his most recent start could be and outlier and tough to duplicate there is a scenario where he can get brave on the lead. #6 BAL HARBOUR might be the “better horse” with a similar running style, though has shown some distance limitations and could be an underlay with the most recent start and those making a comparison to Lone Rock. 

Keeneland Race 6

Post Time 2:00 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Persian Force [IRE] - 15/1 12 The Platinum Queen [IRE] - 7/2 11 Speed Boat Beach - 6/1

Keeneland Race 6

Post Time 2:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

As noted on the Hawthorne video with Jim Miller, #2 LOVE REIGNS seems logical in here. There has been some discussion about her works leading into this race and the scratch from the Indian Summer stakes. Without being too familiar with her and how she works her visuals training look similar to those this summer leading into the Saratoga stakes race win. #3 PRIVATE CREED has the credentials to be a play and local form with the Indian Summer win and could find a similar race shape with the front running types. #4 DRAMATISED the Queen Mary (G2) winner could be overlooked and appreciate the distance cut back. #12 THE PLATINUM QUEEN had trouble in the Queen Mary at Ascot and has improved since though also benefit from favorable scenarios where value is concerning today. 

#5 MISCHIEF MAGIC has a strong late kick where trip and timing will be key at this shorter than ideal distance for him, though not impossible. #6 PERSIAN FORCE must earn it on the track though has been holding his own against some solid competition overseas, higher rated group races than the level where #1 LADY HOLLYWOOD has been most effective.

Keeneland Race 6

Post Time 2:00 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Mischief Magic [IRE] - 8/1 6 Persian Force [IRE] - 15/1 2 Love Reigns [IRE] - 4/1

Expecting Euros to dominant the BC turf races all weekend long. There looks to be enough pace for horses to close in here. Mischief Magic is one of those that should be charging late in the lane. 5 1/2 furlongs is a bit of a concern as he will need clear sailing in this large field but if he gets clear he could run by them all.  Persian Force has been ultra-consistent and should  get a good stalking trip.  He's chased one of the best overseas in Blackbeard and won't have to contend with any horses of that caliber in here. Love Reigns is one of four fillies in this race. She got a dream trip and took advantage of it in her last as she will likely have to leave for an early spot in here as well.

Keeneland Race 7

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
5 Wonder Wheel - 5/1 7 Chop Chop - 4/1 10 Chocolate Gelato - 7/2

Keeneland Race 7

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
7 Chop Chop - 4/1 3 And Tell Me Nolies - 8/1 5 Wonder Wheel - 5/1


Keeneland Race 7

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This is a tough race to find some separation with the horses exiting the Frizette (G1) and the Alcibiades (G1) given a class edge here. The Alcibiades top three (unofficially) finishing in a blanket at the wire could be the “better” as they all ran strong races under different scenario/trips. The concern of that group could be how taxing the effort was for the trio. #8 ATOMICALLY will be tested to step up to this level though worthy of the test dominating lesser foes down in Florida. 

Keeneland Race 7

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
10 Chocolate Gelato - 7/2 14 Raging Sea - 8/1 5 Wonder Wheel - 5/1

This race looks to be the perfect pace setup for Chocolate Gelato. When she stretched out in her last she received a perfect tracking trip and wore down the leaders in the lane. A 16th of a mile further shouldn't be an issue for her at all and she should still be a fair price due to the large field.  Raging Sea gets stuck with a tough post here but is another with a running style similar to Chocolate Gelato. She benefits from a race over the track and at the distance. If she can work out position from the gate she may be a great price play.  Wonder Wheel was all heart in the Alcibiades in winning on the front end but it appears there are horses faster than her early in here. That may not be a bad thing though as she draws well and may not have to work very hard to find a perfect position early.

Keeneland Race 8

Post Time 3:20 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
10 Meditate [IRE] - 4/1 9 Delight - 6/1 4 Free Look - 5/1

Keeneland Race 8

Post Time 3:20 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

10-Meditate 1-Comanche Country 5-Plesant Passage

Keeneland Race 8

Post Time 3:20 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 PLEASANT PASSAGE looks to have the quality to hold her form and compete in this group. Her class can allow for the change in tactics/trip as shown with the versatility race to race. #6 BE YOUR BEST finished behind Pleasant Passage in the Ms Grillo (G2) though did not have the opportunity to run her races, whereas #5 FREE LOOK did and was unable to go by Pleasant Passage. The early speed of #13 XIGERA gives her a mention today and that upgrading her over insignificant trouble in the Alcibiades. 

#10 MEDITATE has legit quality coming into this race off competitive Group 1 efforts. She has lacked some focus at times and O’Brien has mentioned the possibility to run her in cheek pieces for this race. #14 BASIL MARTINI could be overlooked, especially with the post position. All around she will be tested under these conditions though is an improving type that should handle the added ground and this course with turns. She is exiting a Group 3 win earning a B+ OptixGRADE to support a move up in class. #12 MIDNIGHT MILE will get a lot of attention off the win and trip last month at Newmarket. This is a class jump for her as well coming off the Group 3 win (B OptixGRADE) and does not have nearly the foundation of Basil Martini.

Keeneland Race 8

Post Time 3:20 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Free Look - 5/1 10 Meditate [IRE] - 4/1 5 Pleasant Passage - 12/1

Despite the large field there is very little pace in this race. That puts all three of these horses in the mix.  Free Look likely sits just off the leaders as she has been solid, doing nothing but running turf routes in all three starts. I felt she took the worst of the bump in the lane in the Ms Grillo but she did still run on through the wire. Figures-wise she is improving with every race and should continue that trend in here.  Mediatate ran two solid races overseas very close to one another in September. She comes in here a bit more fresh off a game effort in her last. She's never been worse than second in six starts and the added seasoning over some others in this field could be beneficial.  Pleasant Passage is one who may be able to steal this race. She was very game in the Ms Grillo win but did get a bit leg weary late. This race being a 16th shorter plays to her benefit.

Keeneland Race 9

Post Time 4:00 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
4 Forte - 4/1 3 Cave Rock - 4/5 10 National Treasure - 8/1

Keeneland Race 9

Post Time 4:00 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 Cave Rock - 4/5 4 Forte - 4/1 10 National Treasure - 8/1

Keeneland Race 9

Post Time 4:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The Juvenile has seen some bizarre results in the past though this year does figure quite formful with the main players -- Baffert shipping in #3 CAVE ROCK and #10 NATIONAL TREASURE the Santa Anita Derby (G1) exacta finishers along with the Pletcher duo expecting to get attention leading with #4 FORTE. The others in this field would require that “bizarre” and step up to the level of the runners mentioned. #7 WOUND UP would probably require a miracle though as an individual has been moving forward; he handles the main track and has been working with older horses to prepare for this race. The longer distances is something he looked intended for and should handle the surface/distance change the test for the connections still looking to prove where he fits. 

Keeneland Race 9

Post Time 4:00 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Cave Rock - 4/5 4 Forte - 4/1 6 Blazing Sevens - 6/1

This is one of those races where you just say you're going to sit back and watch as you will likely see next year's early Derby favorite run. Cave Rock has been a monster in all three starts and unlike some older horses out West, he has had to face a bit larger fields. He seems to get better the farther he goes and there appears to be no other pace in this race. Is this just a stroll in the park?

Keeneland Race 10

Post Time 4:40 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Victoria Road [IRE] - 8/1 4 Silver Knott [GB] - 3/1 6 Andthewinneris - 5/1

Keeneland Race 10

Post Time 4:40 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Packs a Wahlop - 6/1 4 Silver Knott [GB] - 3/1 6 Andthewinneris - 5/1

Keeneland Race 10

Post Time 4:40 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 SILVER KNOTT seems legitimate as the favorite and is likely to be treated accordingly by the betting public. #6 ANDTHEWINNERIS is a quality type and likely to be the solid second choice along with #8 I’M VERY BUSY for Chad Brown with #1 VICTORIA ROAD and #2 PACKS A WAHLOP behind that pair and as runners will be given a big class test in this spot where value could be short with a solid favorite in the field.

#11 RECKONING FORCE could get lost in the mix as a horse that is improving, has foundation and a step forward coming off a compromised trip in the Bourbon (G2) impacting his outcome. #12 MO STASH is a wild card, though a runner that is a runner and is likely in this spot for Oliver as he is in form and doing well enough to take their shot.

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri November 4th, 2022

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Peter's Simulcast Plays

Keeneland Race 1

Post Time 10:55 AM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
2 Ethereal Road - 4/1 4 Business Model - 6/1 6 B Dawk - 2/1

Keeneland Race 2

Post Time 11:30 AM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
8 Vivid Dreams - 9/2 7 Black Forest - 6/1 6 Klassy Bridgette - 5/1

Keeneland Race 3

Post Time 12:05 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
11 Marsalis - 6/5 2 Uncaptured Sky - 30/1 6 Pro Oxidant - 8/1

Keeneland Race 4

Post Time 12:40 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
12 Protege - 4/1 11 Tres Soles - 5/1 9 Arabian Lion - 7/5

Keeneland Race 5

Post Time 1:15 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
4 Heywoods Beach - 4/1 1 Rattle N Roll - 5/2 6 Bal Harbour - 7/2
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri November 4th, 2022

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Harness Helper

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 1

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 10 Juju Hanover 1 Better Sunset 6 Bettor That Pride

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 2

Analysis by Peter Galassi

T 1 Villefranche As 2 So Not Cool 8 Wishyoudtellme

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 3

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 9 Beyond The Sea 2 Wildcat Star 7 Got Sexy Scars

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 4

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 1 Got The Gold 2 Shes Nun Bettor 7 Need To Breathe

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 5

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 4 Sovereign 7 Kinda Like Royalty 10 Queen Of Soul

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 6

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 4 Catanzaro 8 Machalko 1 Serious Mojo

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 7

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 2 Twin B Tipster 3 Mia Culpa 7 Darksideofpale

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 8

Analysis by Peter Galassi

T 3 Magnificent Seven 2 Mr Contestant 1 Mr Fritter

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 9

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 7 Noble Intentions 1 Brookdale Miki 2 Night Shadow

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 10

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 2 Twin B Sunkissed 4 Mystifying 6 Nightlife Seelster