« 11/04/2022 11/06/2022 »
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat November 5th, 2022

Download as PDF

Full Card

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

There’s probably little doubt that 6-FOGGY KITTEN will grab the early lead. The big question is how long will he stay there? He tired badly while meeting better in his meet debut but did win his previous three starts downstate. Believe the drop to this level is just what’s needed. 3-CHAMPAGNE BLING is another that didn’t handle better company in last but she did finish seven lengths better than top choice. She also had a win streak snapped in that last start. She had won her previous four starts in Iowa. Unlike top choice, she’ll be coming late. 4-ARCH FLYER was a non-threatening third in her last start, her first race for this barn, but she does earn a lot of paychecks and unlike many in here, she’s been pretty successful at Hawthorne.

Hawthorne Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 FOGGY KITTEN could have a clear pace advantage shown clear in Quad I on OptixPLOT. The race dynamic should allow for her best chance to return to winning ways picking up the similar “LONE” lead trips from earlier this season. The rest of the field will have their work cut out for them with Foggy Kitten the one to catch including the two Arnett runners, #3 CHAMPAGNE BLING and #7 VOODAYO finding some class relief in their second start of the meet from the October 22nd common race.  

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:15 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

Things are iffy so I’m guessing we’ll be off the turf again today, though the track could be anywhere from fast to sloppy, depending on which weather report you access. Have to think the connections of 4-UPTOWN QUEEN were praying for rain. It’s true that she does have a turf win but she has been SO MUCH BETTER on the main track. She finished third in a starter in her local debut, a race that was moved from turf to dirt, and think she’ll face another short field today. She had a four-race win streak going in Iowa before getting here. Think she’ll start another today. Don’t know what to make of 1-KINGSBURY DREAM. She just finished third in a turf stakes. However, she has never won on the weeds. All six of her victories came on the main track. Will she stay in if this race gets moves to the main track? We’ll see.  6-A ROSE FOR LYLA probably had no intention of racing on turf, she never has, but she has been in good form on dirt downstate. Never had much luck here but she could be a major player if the field gets decimated by scratches.

Hawthorne Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The pace scenario could be both Contentious (Sun) early and fast with the higher 77 SpeedRate. That scenario could benefit #7 ACCORDING TO ASPEN one that has been patient this year waiting for a grass race scratched from a similar conditioned event on October 14th and higher allowance on October 28th. In addition to the pace, she could be overlooked from a troubled trip on September 7th at Canterbury Park. In addition, she holds buried form here at Hawthorne keying off a pair of November races (2020 and 2021) both strong efforts for the level, a level she will return to here. #11 MIZZEN ASH could also benefit from the same Quad IV trip and pace scenario, though is lighter on numbers coming into this race requiring a top effort and value on the board. Value is noted as that is the knock on #1 KINGSBURY DREAM otherwise a logical type. 

#8 SLIME QUEEN was also scheduled to return in the October 14th event, scratched with the surface switch that afternoon. She could have been short returning from a 59-day layoff on September 7th at Canterbury Park. She has the ability to show tactical speed with “needing the lead” as PC runner (Plot upgrade Quad I Square) and also holds form at this level, course and distance going back to last season on November 5th common race with According to Aspen.

#9 LEA RO remained in the October 14th race even with the surface switch and did not have the trip (TACTIC-) or her ideal surface. Going back to the turf, she given credit for her game win on September 22nd – a race she will require to run back to today. The timing and pace scenario could be the hurdle for #2 SEAWARD (Quad I) for this race as she wheels back to remain on the turf, though does find class relief from that higher Optional Claiming race on October 23rd.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:55 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

7-BARGAIN HUNTER is a well-bred first timer with good drills, dating back to June, and a barn that knows how to win with first timers, especially babies. 4-WILMA MANKILLER, the likely favorite, sports a world-class pedigree and she races for the top barn, with the top rider in the irons. Don’t like the way she faded late in all of her races but there’s a strong possibility that she’ll take it all the way today. 2-TU ROYAL also makes her debut. She’s had some decent drills and has an interesting pedigree. Could fit in well.

Hawthorne Race 3

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 BARGAIN HUNTER could catch the right group to pop up and score against first out. She has trained consistently as of late and over this course going back to works from earlier this year. That could suggest positive intent to run here at Hawthorne and worth noting they land in this spot following a scratch from a $50k maiden claiming race (higher race par/OFR) at Churchill Downs back in September. 

#4 WILMA MANKILLER entered last weekend in a $20k maiden claiming event with that class drop making sense for her. She scratched from that event and will run her again protected where she could compete as she finds a softer race par with today’s OFR similar to the maiden claiming event on October 29th. The class change is also a lateral move for #3 BLAZE BEAUTY exiting a weaker Special Weight race at Churchill Downs on September 24th

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 4:25 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

2-STORMIN HONG KONG has been claimed from his last two races. He finished second in what turned out to be a “key” race; both the winner and the third-place finisher came back to win their next starts. Not sure why 9-IMPERIAL MOMENT is in this race. He’s clearly better racing in routes. But he has been in good form most of the year while most of his rivals have not. 1-FIXICO split the field in his first start of the meet. However, that race was a sixteenth shorter. He stretches to a better distance today. Could sneak in at a great price.

Hawthorne Race 4

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 FIXICO projects to IMPROVE from the October 16th event. He has the tendency to break slow (SLOG) and a better break or recovery will be required to compete with this race shape and from the rail draw. #6 EMOJI GUY is not without a chance coming off three straight races with subtle trips going back to September 8th at Belterra park shown in the Past 3 Runlines.

The lower SpeedRate should assist both #9 IMPERIAL MOMENT and #10 SIRCORRI in today’s race dynamic as Quad I/III Squares. The value could side with Sircorri as well as upside as he wheels back in two weeks from the October 21st event where he might have required that start, his first race back off a 41-day break.

The trip and pace is the hurdle again for #2 STORMIN HONGKONG with his late closing RunStyle/Quad IV, though otherwise a fit in this race off his closing place finish last month exiting a productive October 2nd race. The gate issues have also been a hinderance to #3 OUTRUN THE POSSE and playing a role in his Plot position, despite the EP RunStyle designation. Overall he carries some upside, though for today’s event he not only requires a better break, but a top effort stepping up in class today.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:55 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

I’ll take 2-KNEESNHIPS to win though I doubt if they’ll ship her with the strong possibility that this race will come off the weeds. But, just in case it stays on and she does ship in she certainly looks tough. She’s a turf stakes winner and turf-stakes sprint placed runner. Think they are shipping her here to give her a confidence builder after a couple dull races. We’ll see if it works. 3-RICHIE’S GREAT GAL raced mostly on turf and just won a turf race at this distance but she is also quite accomplished on dirt. She got claimed from that race. No guarantees that she’ll stay in the race if it comes off the turf but think she would be tough on either surface. 9-OFF RAMP is another that could be tough on either surface. She’s been in good form for a while. Even in her last when she finished seventh, she was less than two lengths back in a blanket finish. She’ll most likely be overlooked on turf or dirt but believe she could be a top contender at a terrific price.

Hawthorne Race 5

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 LIPLINER has a longshot look as she can be upgraded making her second start off the layoff with the key SHORTER distance change today. The trip could also assist as she draws the rail and given a chance in this race shape as a Surface/Distance Quad III Square and should offer a higher number today than #8 PLUS CHIC. Number wise Lipliner will require her top effort today though her numbers on those “best” day’s stack up with the turf sprint numbers from #2 KNEESNHIPS.  Class is the edge for Kneesnhips today, though still requires to run her race and work a trip from Quad IV – things to consider with the number on the board. 

The connections scratched #5 MOM’S RED LIPSTICK on October 16th from a turf sprint at this same condition perhaps given the “good” rated course conditions that day. The timing and the change could be beneficial here with the lower race par today and Plot upgrade for today’s race dynamic moving Mom’s Red Lipstick into a prime contender; and a threat to #3 RICHIE’S GREAT GIRL, the October 16th race winner. 

Behind Richie’s Great Girl was a blanket finish at the wire and for the minors that included #9 OFF RAMP upgraded from the group with the B- OptixGRADE despite the 7th place finish that could get overlooked and in line with Plus Chic and #11 SHARP HERO and the C+ OptixGRADE for #7 COVENANT LADY.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 5:28 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

3-KIMBERLY FRANCES is in good form, she handles the distance, and she has a history of doing well on this track. She’s certainly no standout but considering the form of most of her opponents in here, she does look like a top contender. 9-FLATOUTANDFOXY could be the one to beat. She finished third in her local debut, a bit behind Kimberly Frances, but she did seem to run out of gas a bit late in that race. 6-WATCHIN THE WHEELS has been in good form also but that those races were at Fanduel and can’t guarantee that good form down there will translate into good form here. 

Hawthorne Race 6

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 FLATOUTANDFOXY returns looking for redemption coming up short as the favorite under similar conditions on October 16th. She returns with the benefit of conditioning over this course and today’s race shape puts her in the mix stalking the first flight and looking for first run. That trip and tactics will be key for her as #3 KIMBERLY FRANCES and #8 WEEKEND PASS will be closing late and should have the pace for their kick (Large Square) with the bulk of the field positioned above the Par Line, the 45 SpeedRate combined with the “FireContention

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

1-JOLIE RULER not only drops in claiming price but she’s going from open company into state breds. She showed little in her first two races of the meet but think this is an easier field than those she’s been facing. Wakes up today. 3-CATANIA finds her way back to Hawthorne via claim. Since she last race here, a year ago, she’s been running at Oaklawn and Monmouth. Four claims later, she’s back here. She didn’t show much here before but she is another who should appreciate the move back to Illinois breds. 5-ROCK THE BIRDHOUSE returns from a brief layoff. Her form prior to last was good and she’s been very good when meeting Illinois breds. Figures with these.

Hawthorne Race 7

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

There is a Surface/Distance pace scenario for #4 LIL BIT TIPSEY to make the lead and hold a pace advantage up front. She is shown as a Circle, less finishing ability, and would require that uncontested front end trip to win, though a value scenario to consider. #3 CATANIA should be sitting in that stalking position and shown high on the Plot y-axis represents her speed to the second call and should utilize that speed in today’s race shape along with her finishing (Square) ability to present here as a contender and outkick Circle #7 AUNT STELLA.

The first run from Catania could make her tougher to run down even with the Large Square shape for #8 RANK AND FILE, given the tactical edge over #1 JOLIE RULER and #5 ROCK THE BIRDHOUSE the other Large Squares.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 6:21 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

8-LARK can make it two in a row. It took 15 starts to break his maiden and he didn’t win by much but win he did. They bring him back at the right level and face a field full of runners in poor form. 5-MADELYN’S HEAT finished third in both races this meet. Got claimed from his last start. Might have better luck for new connections. 9-FUTURE VISION finished second in last, his first good race in quite a while. Maybe he’s getting things turned around.

Hawthorne Race 8

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The race shape according to OptixPLOT does not show any strong edge for a particular RunStyle creating less of an advantage/value for #8 LARK in this race, while capable. The Plot position and number on the board could create an upgrade for Quad I Square, #11 MINISTRY OF ART by comparison over #9 FUTURE VISION with both runners expecting to show early speed.

A similar upgrade can be given to #6 DARE GOES DA DEVIL with current form this season and exiting a WIDE trip on October 16th. The lone EP RunStyle horse #7 BLOOMING GARDEN could give him that longshot look and can be upgraded on Surface/Distance.

#5 MADELYNS HEAT has recency at this condition and upside off subtle trips (TACTIC-) and race dynamics this season. Right alongside him on Surface/Distance; #3 RIP IT RYAN has the 95-day, three month layoff to overcome though has a competitive race and 73 OptixFIG from a similar conditioned race here last December that stacks up both on Speed and Class with today’s OFR.

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat November 5th, 2022

Download as PDF

Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Foggy Kitten - 3/1 3 Champagne Bling - 2/1 4 Arch Flyer - 9/2

After coming out of a race that had a crazy amount of early speed last out, Foggy Kitten looks to find things much easier in this spot.  She may be able to cruise to the front without much effort and if that's the case she should have more than enough left in the tank for the stretch drive.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:15 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Seaward - 4/1 4 Uptown Queen - 8/1 9 Lea Ro - 6/1

While the weather forecast doesn't look promising, Seaward is one in here that figures on either turf or dirt, and may actually be in better shape if this race comes off the grass.  She's faced some tough company of late and has held her own.  She should rate close early and be a factor the entire way. Uptown Queen is another that benefits if there is rain as she's 2 for 2 in the money on a wet dirt track.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:55 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Bargain Hunter - 5/2 4 Wilma Mankiller - 8/5 6 Wicked Sky - 9/2

Not a great race for this level and tough to endorse Wilma Mankiller on top off a recent scratch in a spot where she would have been 4-5. Bargain Hunter is very well bred for a barn that often wins early. First Lasix, and outside draw and consistent workouts show she should be very tough at first asking.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 4:25 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Stormin Hongkong - 5/2 9 Imperial Moment - 3/1 1 Fixico - 15/1

I'm sure the connections of Stormin Hongkong are doing a rain dance as this one has been fantastic on a wet track.  He's been claimed out of his last two races and ran a good second behind a solid winner in his last. Santiago in the saddle is a plus as he may be able to sit a bit closer to the early pace than he did last time out.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:55 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Plus Chic - 9/2 9 Off Ramp - 15/1 12 Someone Said So - 20/1

This is the race where you hope there isn't rain because I'm not sure there will be any horses left if the race comes off the grass. Plus Chic figures to be one who can threaten on either surface as she has good tactical speed. With many of the top turf contenders in here that have a late closing style, may be she can steal this one today.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 5:28 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Kimberly Frances - 5/1 9 Flatoutandfoxy - 3/1 1 Singing Alli - 8/1

All I can say is good luck with this race. There's not much along the lines of consistency from these runners and that leaves every horse in with a shot. If it rains, Kimberly Frances moves up for sure as she has been great on a wet track. Regardless of weather, her style puts he in a good stalking spot but an inexperienced rider compared to others in this field is a bit of a concern.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Rock the Birdhouse - 5/1 9 Cowgirl Kimmie - 5/1 7 Aunt Stella - 7/2

The move back to the sprint and switch Emigh was enough for me to look to Rock the Birdhouse in this spot.  He has good tactical speed and should be in a good stalking spot. No recent workouts off the last race leave some questions though so let's see if a late added workout is announced. 

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 6:21 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Lark - 9/5 9 Future Vision - 7/2 5 Madelyns Heat - 9/2

It took a while but Lark finally figured things out in his last start. I like that the connections aren't asking too much of him off that victory as he finds a spot where he can easily repeat to close out this card.

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat November 5th, 2022

Download as PDF

Breeders Cup

Keeneland Race 1

Post Time 9:30 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Of the horses with experience #12 REAGAN showed positive visuals on debut. The preference is in addition to the solid speed figure and showing tactical speed with the strong rider change. The September 29th race has not been a productive event, something to consider with value as he is listed as the second choice on the morning line though projects to drift up off the 4-1 given the competitive nature of this group. 

#13 DETERMINEDLY is tough to knock off his races and has the foundation edge of the group though must step up and could be forced to be “best” shifting to the main track, cutting back in distance and overcoming the outside post. 

As far as the first time starters, #4 ARABIAN KNIGHT could take up the role as projected with the connections involved. Baffert did not have a strong Friday under performing with horses at short prices that made logical sense in that role – value must be a concern with this one here and could create overlays on others. Arabian Knight has been working out in California and most recently on October 29th with Laurel River (late scratch from the Big Ass Dirt Mile (G1)) with both just okay in the drill with Arabian second best.

#8 ROCKET AND ROLL should show early speed he worked a snappy 10 flat back in May at the sale and was still growing at the time. He should benefit from the time to mature though still the timing of this late season debut is questionable for this outfit – and carries to Pletcher with #10 EXPECT MORE. The timing is more in line for Sims sending out #7 GLEN AIRY (live longshot look) here at Keeneland and should have this horse as ready and fit as can be off the training series.

Keeneland Race 1

Post Time 9:30 AM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
6 Fashion King - 9/2 1 Dakota Run - 12/1 3 Line to Gain - 30/1

Keeneland Race 2

Post Time 10:05 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Follows the same concerns (R1 analysis) with Baffert sending out #3 MESSIER returning from the layoff and making some changes for this race. His numbers improved with added ground (excusing the KY Derby) with all three off his early one-turn races flattered by race shapes and softer fields. #2 NAKATOMI has current form and sprint form though has been most effective going shorter. With those two holding knocks that really opens up the race to get creative and take a shot. 

#11 NIGHT TIME could be worth keeping on the radar he has some of his stronger races to date here in Kentucky and at this type of extended sprint distance. His Plot position does not standout necessarily though there is reason with the recent NY and turf races “dirtying” up the form and impacting the Plot position and shape. Going back to last year should he regain that form he has the August 1st race, a strong effort finishing alongside eventual 2021 BC Sprint winner, Aloha West. 

Keeneland Race 2

Post Time 10:05 AM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
2 Nakatomi - 9/2 4 Silk Trade - 10/1 5 Gun It - 6/1

Keeneland Race 3

Post Time 10:50 AM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Obligatory - 8/1 4 Ce Ce - 4/1 8 Goodnight Olive - 3/1

Quite possibly one of the best wagering races of the BC is the first of the Saturday races. This is a very evenly matched bunch in a division that does not have a standout. It does appear there are enough horses to challenge things upfront early on to set things up for someone to come from off the pace. Obligatory has that stride where she can close quickly late. She was on the move in her last before being sideswiped at the top of the lane and was still able to run on for third. With clear sailing in here she may be a great price play.

Keeneland Race 3

Post Time 10:50 AM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
8 Goodnight Olive - 3/1 5 Frank's Rockette - 6/1 1 Slammed - 15/1

Keeneland Race 3

Post Time 10:50 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

As noted on the Hawthorne video with Jim Miller, the pace should play a role in this race and is a complicated dynamic. The pace should be contentious though does not necessarily have to be wicked fast and that could assist #13 ECHO ZULU as she appears in form and the class edge on her side. From off the pace #7 OBLIGATORY should be rolling late and checks all the boxes for this race, though the morning line at 8-1 could be greatly reduced come post time. #6 CHAIN OF LOVE should remain double digits on the board with a similar off-the-pace run style to Obligatory, though lacking the proven local experience something that should be compensated for. 

As far as the morning line favorites; #4 CE CE will look to defend her title in this race and proven capable though this year is a bigger field and contentious event. Her form and figures this year have not been as strong as those leading up to last year. #8 GOODNIGHT OLIVE has been in top form, though has benefit from favorable trips in her three most recent starts and has the same Plot position and shape to #5 FRANK’S ROCKETTE, likely much higher on the board of the two. #2 EDGEWAY is tough to make a case for as one of the most likely and would require a lot in her favor to win. Her post position and run style could assist with a ground saving trip for a share.

Keeneland Race 3

Post Time 10:50 AM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
8 Goodnight Olive - 3/1 4 Ce Ce - 4/1 5 Frank's Rockette - 6/1

Keeneland Race 4

Post Time 11:29 AM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Highfield Princess [FR] - 7/2 8 Golden Pal - 2/1 7 Arrest Me Red - 15/1

Golden Pal is going to take all of the action in here and rightfully so with his 4 for 4 record on the Keeneland turf.  For a turf sprint, there's not a ton of early speed and he may try to steal the race. Highfield Princess may get a dream trip from just off the pace though as she comes into her in the best form of her career. The distance suits her and the Euros could just potentially be better on the grass throughout this Breeders' Cup.

Keeneland Race 4

Post Time 11:29 AM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Highfield Princess [FR] - 7/2 8 Golden Pal - 2/1 11 Casa Creed - 6/1

Keeneland Race 4

Post Time 11:29 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The Euros have come out firing and even in yesterday’s juvenile turf sprint, a change from the years past. That upgrades that group today showing up in form and potential edge over the 2022 form of #8 GOLDEN PAL – the horse to beat. 

A longshot look to #5 GO BEARS GO, a proven turf sprinter and one with some grit and early speed. The connections have considered coming back to the states this year (2nd in the 2021 BC Juv Turf Sprint) and taking this spot with the preferred distance for this colt. The blinkers are a noted change in the program though this one typically wears cheek pieces. 

Keeneland Race 4

Post Time 11:29 AM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
6 Highfield Princess [FR] - 7/2 4 Campanelle [IRE] - 8/1 1 Creative Force [IRE] - 10/1

Keeneland Race 5

Post Time 12:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Cody's Wish - 5/2 9 Cyberknife - 9/2 5 Gunite - 7/2

Cool seeing some of the top 3yo horses make it to this point as the crop has shown a lot of ability this year. Both Simplification and Cyberknife can potentially be threats in this race. Cody's Wish just happens to be a specialist at this distance. He has won all five starts going a mile and has shown a versatility in his running style that allows the race to come to him instead of having to dictate things. He also comes of a race where he defeated Jackie's Warrior, something that has been nearly impossible to do.

Keeneland Race 5

Post Time 12:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
7 Cody's Wish - 5/2 6 Laurel River - 9/2 5 Gunite - 7/2

Keeneland Race 5

Post Time 12:10 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 CODY’S WISH is a legitimate favorite in this race. He has the form, class, speed figure and favorable run style. Most of his form is at the one turn distance, though a function of those higher mile graded stakes events contested at tracks with that mile configuration. The race shape could also upgrade #3 PIPELINE one that has gate speed and tactical speed to find position early and the dynamic shift with the Laurel River scratch. 

The placement fits #2 SIMPLIFICATION one that has some current form and distance limitations. The connections of #9 CYBERKNIFE are landing here looking for a softer spot than the Classic and might just find that here but is a wimpy attitude. Cyberknife shows a similar Surface/Distance Plot position shape as #4 LAW PROFESSOR with the latter projected to go off as much higher of the two. 

Keeneland Race 5

Post Time 12:10 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
4 Law Professor - 20/1 5 Gunite - 7/2 6 Laurel River - 9/2

Keeneland Race 6

Post Time 12:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 Nashwa [GB] - 5/2 4 Above the Curve - 9/2 10 Virginia Joy [GER] - 10/1

Keeneland Race 6

Post Time 12:50 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Aiden O’Brien, as projected has come into Keeneland live and gives an upgrade to #5 TUESDAY, one that was not mentioned during the ALL TURF P4 video for Hawthorne YouTube. Both #3 NASHWA and #4 ABOVE THE CURVE still given unchanged consideration here along with #9 ROUGIR (preferred) and #11 IN ITALIAN for Brown. 

Keeneland Race 6

Post Time 12:50 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
3 Nashwa [GB] - 5/2 4 Above the Curve - 9/2 5 Tuesday [IRE] - 8/1

Keeneland Race 7

Post Time 1:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
9 Jackie's Warrior - 4/5 2 Kimari - 4/1 5 Aloha West - 12/1

Jackie's Warrior is going to be a very heavy favorite in here. The only time he didn't run well last year was in the Breeders' Cup but I tend to wonder if that had a bit to do with the trip to Del Mar. Keeneland looks to be a perfect spot as he also catches a field that doesn't appear to have any in here to challenge him for the lead.

Keeneland Race 7

Post Time 1:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
9 Jackie's Warrior - 4/5 5 Aloha West - 12/1 2 Kimari - 4/1

Keeneland Race 7

Post Time 1:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 JACKIE’S WARRIOR should have no excuse today though is unexciting and likely to be a short price. There is a scenario where they are more aggressive with #7 SUPER OCHO putting pressure on Jackie’s Warrior though that scenario also forces #2 KIMARI closer to the pace than her ideal and lacking value as the projected second choice in this case.

Playing for that secondary pace outcome: that contention could upgrade the trip for #4 AMERICAN THEOREM and #5 ALOHA WEST those two capable of first run and value over #6 ELITE POWER, one that could be flattered coming into this race off favorable race shapes and weaker events overall.

Keeneland Race 8

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
13 Kinross [GB] - 9/2 4 Modern Games [IRE] - 7/2 6 Ivar [BRZ] - 15/1

Sticking with the belief that the Euros will be turf dominant, I'm hoping to catch a little bit of a price with Kinross in here.  The post isn't great and he has typically been more of a sprinter on the grass but the connections must feel the Mile is the better fit than the Turf Sprint as he stretches out in here. He could sit right behind a quick and contested pace and get the jump on the closers in the lane.

Keeneland Race 8

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
13 Kinross [GB] - 9/2 4 Modern Games [IRE] - 7/2 5 Smooth Like Strait - 10/1

Keeneland Race 8

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

As mentioned on the ALL TURF P4 video (Hawthorne YouTube) the case for #10 ORDER OF AUSTRALIA in this spot and added confidence based on the Aiden O’Brien results from yesterday. #4 MODERN GAMES still fits logical and a good day once again at the Breeders’ Cup for Appleby. These two should hold an edge over the stateside based local runners, respectively. 

#9 MALAVATH is a quality sophomore filly that will be tested here though has held her own and projects to run an honest race. She should offer value over #13 KINROSS, a horse she has finished behind though Kinross has his challenges here with the post and distance change. The post along with the layoff are additional hurdles for the returning #14 DOMESTIC SPENDING one that was a late scratch from the 2021 BC Turf (12f) last year.

Keeneland Race 8

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
4 Modern Games [IRE] - 7/2 8 Regal Glory - 6/1 11 Annapolis - 10/1

Keeneland Race 9

Post Time 2:55 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Malathaat - 3/1 4 Clairiere - 4/1 6 Nest - 9/5

Experience over the course was what led me to Malathaat in this spot. She's 3 for 3 at Keeneland, winning at this exact distance with ease in her last.  There's not a ton of early pace in this race which may eliminate the deep closers from the top spot.

Keeneland Race 9

Post Time 2:55 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Nest - 9/5 1 Malathaat - 3/1 7 Search Results - 9/2

Keeneland Race 9

Post Time 2:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 NEST comes into the race as a legit favorite. The number expected to be shorter earlier in the week, but a lot of attention could fall on her stablemate #1 MALATHAAT with Nest sitting closer to fair odds. #4 CLAIRIERE was in top form leading into the 2021 Distaff (G1) and ran her BTL race on the day with an unlucky trip. She is capable, though again the pace/trip is key for her in this spot, compact field as well as requiring a top effort off a 70-day layoff. Those factors require value and also required for #7 SEARCH RESULTS, one that should find a favorable trip with her tactical speed though tested for class and stamina. 

Her Asmussen trained stablemate, #8 SOCIETY should be hard sent to the lead and look to take this field gate to wire where even with that plan she will be tested for form, class, and stamina. Value might not be there as she could get the “lone speed” public attention.

Some upside and price compensation is in play to make longshot cases for: #2 BLUE STRIPE, an improving type that has form coming back to the Distaff something that was not on her side last year; and #3 SECRET OATH another with current form and potentially improving form that could have her sitting on a peak effort today. 

Keeneland Race 9

Post Time 2:55 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
6 Nest - 9/5 1 Malathaat - 3/1 4 Clairiere - 4/1

Keeneland Race 10

Post Time 3:40 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Rebel's Romance [IRE] - 3/1 2 War Like Goddess - 9/2 3 Stone Age [IRE] - 15/1

There is very little in here along the lines of early pace and at a mile and a half that likely means a very bunched up field. Some handle the tight quarters better than others and Rebel's Romance showed in his recent starts that he's one who doesn't mind being in an early scrum. He's never lost at the distance on the grass, is bred to run all day on the turf and has been ultra-consistent in his last four races, all victories at this distance on the grass. War Like Goddess is another likely to tuck in just off the early pace. Watch out for Bye Bye Melvin and Stone Age. Those are the only two speed horses in the race. If one goes and the other doesn't, they could very easily steal this one.

Keeneland Race 10

Post Time 3:40 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 STONE AGE showed quality in common races with #7 NATION’S PRIDE earlier this year in NY and in my opinion was running better of the two especially in the Belmont Derby (G1), a sneaky good effort from Stone Age and should be the longer of the two in this event. Aiden O’Brien will also return with #4 BROOME, one that runs well stateside and proven at today’s 12f distance. The 12f distance is the reason for #2 WAR LIKE GODDESS, a distance specialist that fits in this race. She is preferred at the odds in a logical role over #5 REBEL’S ROMANCE. 

Keeneland Race 10

Post Time 3:40 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
5 Rebel's Romance [IRE] - 3/1 7 Nations Pride [IRE] - 7/2 11 Mishriff [IRE] - 6/1

Keeneland Race 11

Post Time 4:40 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Epicenter - 5/1 4 Flightline - 3/5 2 Life Is Good - 6/1

Flightline is very good, and has looked very impressive in his wins. Here is where we find out if he's that great (which he may be) or if his competition hasn't been much. I worry that Life Is Good may try to steal this race but tend to wonder if Taiba keeps closer contact early with him off a big race in his last. I pick Epicenter for a couple of reasons. He has shown grit and versatility in his races. He has never been worse than 2nd from his seven starts this year and I feel he's the best 3yo in the country. He likely will need a bit of a contested pace ahead of him but if he can sit 2-3 lengths behind the leaders early, he may be in a perfect striking spot at the top of the lane.

Keeneland Race 11

Post Time 4:40 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Flightline - 3/5 6 Epicenter - 5/1 5 Hot Rod Charlie - 15/1

Keeneland Race 11

Post Time 4:40 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 FLIGHTLINE is brilliant and as an individual the horse to beat. Races are not always the outcome of the individual ability where the “best” horse can be compromised by dynamics and if Flightline is to be beat today, that is the most likely how. He has yet to face a field of this quality or potential pace scenario with quick #2 LIFE IS GOOD in the field. 

Looking for contenders/value a lot of attention should fall on the three-year-old runners with #6 EPICENTER likely to be the second choice and could be short/no value in that role with a race dynamic that he must also overcome. #1 TAIBA stands out looking at OptixPLOT and should not lose this race due to trip. His challenges include class and speed, both requiring him to improve. Current form also must be assessed with how Baffert runners faired on BC Friday (should be monitored again today), faltering at shorter prices. The change in training also factored where “overtraining” is possible. #8 RICH STRIKE should be the longest odds runner in this field, though could still be shorter in that role with public money as the Derby winner and coming off a side-by-side finish with #5 HOT ROD CHARLIE.

#7 OLYMPIAD could get lost on the board. He is an older horse coming into this race fresh, fast enough to win and proven at today’s distance. He ran possibly his career best race, the 113 OptixFIG and A- OptixGRADE off a similar layoff in the S.Foster (G2) at Churchill in July and holds a win here at Keeneland.  Trip wise he has run closer to the pace though has not had to run from further off the pace based on the fields and race shapes this year and might have that versatility. 

Keeneland Race 11

Post Time 4:40 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
4 Flightline - 3/5 2 Life Is Good - 6/1 6 Epicenter - 5/1

Keeneland Race 12

Post Time 5:20 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 SHANTISARA could be looking to close out BC 2022 with a short price for Chad Brown, one of a set from that barn. She fits on class and form over this course though does given up recency while cutting back to a flat mile – things to factor at a short price. #2 WAKANAKA does not have those fast figures that jump off the page, though has been competitive in top G1 company and has her strongest (and buried) form at the mile distance, especially returning around two-turns. This race comes up salty for a restricted stakes race given the $350k purse and Wakanaka does appear well-intended for this event. 

Keeneland Race 12

Post Time 5:20 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Shantisara [IRE] - 6/5 4 Dalika [GER] - 7/2 7 Technical Analysis [IRE] - 3/1

Keeneland Race 12

Post Time 5:20 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
5 Shantisara [IRE] - 6/5 4 Dalika [GER] - 7/2 7 Technical Analysis [IRE] - 3/1
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat November 5th, 2022

Download as PDF

Harness Helper

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 1

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 6 Delicate Sound 3 Howyouplay The Game 1 Sports Fan

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 1

Analysis by Peter Galassi
#6 Delicate Sound #3 Howyou Play The Game 1 Sports Fan

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 2

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 7 Forefather 8 Alta Engen 9 Carlas Mach

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 3

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 2 Coligny Hanover 4 E L Gladiator 6 Camara Moment

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 4

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 9 Fabrizio 6 Ron 5 Legion Seelster

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 5

Analysis by Peter Galassi

T 6 Angels Express 11 Stable Genius 2 Hp Maestro

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 6

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 9 Gias Surreal 3 Dabarndawgswatchin 1 Heavens Showgirl

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 7

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 1 American History 4 Commanding Officer 9 Cold Creek Queso

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 8

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 8 Sip Of Bourbon 7 Hp Momentum 6 Hashtag Money

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 9

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 2 Codename Cigar Box 4 Wheels On Fire 3 Warrawee Vital

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 10

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 9 Outlaw Aceofspades 1 Flyingevenbettor 3 Thatll Be Sporty

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 11

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 4 Yourtheone 6 Petipou 8 Partyintheshadows