Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 UNBROKEN SONG is taking a different path into this race making his second start of the meet and scratching from a similar conditioned race with a full field back on October 14th. He should appreciate the return to the route of ground (ROUTER) for this race to try and find his first win of the year for Litfin. Value could side with Unbroken Song showing a similar RunStyle to rival, #2 TALLESTOFTHETALL, one with the current form at today’s conditions.

#5 YAK can be upgraded returning to his preferred route, two-turn distance with improving form to make his third start of the meet. #4 CARTE BLANCHE is logical running back to the effort on October 29^th looking to pair wins. The quick turnaround could be a hurdle, especially for a horse that is currently on an “every other” pattern and could show a step back here repeating that cycle.

4-CARTE BLANCHE has been on a terrific roll this year. From nine starts, he had three wins, a pair of seconds and three thirds. He lost his first race of the meet by a neck and then proceeded to score his next time out. He did beat most of this field in at least one of last two starts. Think he’ll beat all of them in this one. 5-YAK completes the sprint-route-sprint sequence. He split the fields in his first two local starts. Guessing he’ll be far more competitive in this one. 2-TALESOFTHETALL comes on late. He finished in the money in both races this meet. That trend is likely to continue.

RACE 2: This race will feature a group that were entered and scratched under similar conditions with the races taken off the turf on October 28^th. Keying off those runners, #10 JOLTING JOE should benefit from the return race two weeks ago in what appeared to be a “PREP” coming back off the 81-day break in a sprint. He showed more run on October 22^nd noting he was not asked for his best making up ground inside and continued to gallop out. That race should set him up today for a top effort stretching out to the preferred route distance and finding some subtle class relief to run here for the $10k tag. That same subtle class change should upgrade #6 DIAMOND DAVE here as well – these two sharing a similar Plot position/shape favorable for today’s race dynamic. 

A shorter price is projected for both #4 CAMMACK and #9 HANNITY as they land here for the turf. As far as their chances today, neither winning this race would be any big surprise, however, they lack a strong edge exiting the common race on opening day (September 23^rd) with the minor finishes. Their Plot position together in Quad I, could make the trip tougher for rival #12 VITALE in this spot and as he steps up to open company. 

Longshot #11 HONEST TO GOODNESS has buried and progressive form that fits on par back under similar condition to today’s event returning to the turf. #2 PERFECT WAGER also remained in the October 29^th race with the surface switch. That change to the main track gave him an advantage and one he was unable to capitalize on.

Also returning here from the October 28^th scratch: #8 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE as a legitimate longshot in this race, though has some positive changes for this race (STRETCH) and a Plot position/shape that is worth the mention at the expected longer odds.

13-PISTOL BOX looks tough since the race came off the turf. He’s moving up in claiming price but coming off two straight victories. Five of his 10 victories came on this track. Could be ready to add another. It’s not unusual for the Block barn to scratch runners when a race comes off the turf, and they did scratch Cammack, but they do leave 12-VITALE in, even though he has had most success on turf. But, early in his career he did run ok on dirt. This field came up easy, especially after scratches. Why not? 6-DIAMOND DAVE was entered for turf but he never won on that surface. All six of his victories were scored on the main track. The class drop certainly helps.

Current form could setup #3 JACK VAN BERG for a third straight win as he fits this condition coming back for the connections. With that said, there is a scenario especially with #6 NAUGHTY ALFRED keeping the early pace honest (above the ParLine) and today’s 6.5f distance, to set up for #4 D’YANK from off the pace. As shown on the Plot, there is Contention (Sun) and visually with the field “bunching” up, a scenario that could set up for a Closer/Quad IV Square. 

D’Yank has upside in his own right with back OptixFIG that stack up on par and progressive form (OptixFIG and GRADES) coming back off the layoff and showing up today in his third start of the cycle. The rider change could be a further upgrade given the TACTIC- on October 15^th and Lopez was aboard for his win here back in April.

3-JACK VAN BERG has gotten good again. Daylight winner of last two moves up in class but that probably won’t make much difference. It’s all the other speed in here that might compromise his chances. Recent claim 1-TIME HEIST could get the trip. Although he has speed of his own, it’s his ability to close on what promises to be a contested pace that makes him dangerous. 2-BRAVO BRAVO, another claimed from last, might be the best closer in the field but he’s been claimed so often you have to wonder if the frequent changes in scenery will start to take its toll.

The runners in this maiden field hold established form where pace and recency are the upgraded handicapping factors. The early pace advantage should sit with #1 HURTS SO BAD over #4 INSIDE THE CIRCLE as overall there is not much between these two on their best day. #2 JIM AND JIM could land himself in the right place and time tracking right off that set and taking first run. Trip will be key and slightly unknown given this will be his first start at the sprint, one turf distance.

1-HURTS SO BAD turns back in distance and heads back to the main track. He raced competitively on turf in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but the race was too long. He should be tough with the turnback. 2-JIM AND JIM absolutely hated the lawn in last, reinforcing what he had shown on grass before. He’s another moving back to the main track. He has never run in a race less than seven and a half furlongs but he just might benefit from his first foray into a sprint. 4-INSIDE THE CIRCLE seems like the best of the speed and he often finishes in the money (12 of 17) but he tends to run out of gas and the six furlongs of this race could be too long for him.

#5 SWISHAWISH is upgraded off his current form showing up today against statebred runners and class relief from his races this season in open company. 

Current form and early speed upgrade #8 TUFF ATTACK over recent maiden winner #9 HELA as he takes on winners for the first time and making his Hawthorne debut. #4 MISTER CHARMING has struggled with class to win at this allowance condition, though carries current form coming back off the September 24^th race and place finish. His Plot position and current figures sit in line with #7 GHAALEB’S HONOR, a sophomore filly that will be tested with today’s race conditions.

5-SWISHAWISH tired to beat only one in his local debut but he was facing a much tougher group in that spot. In fact, he’s been facing far tougher ever since he broke his maiden by 14 lengths in his only previous contest versus state breds. Imagine he’ll grab the early lead. There’s a good chance he’ll stay there. 7-GHAALEB’S HONOR has been running faster with each passing start. He finished second in last, his first start versus winners. Could be poised for an even better effort today. 9-HELA didn’t show a thing in his first two starts but blinkers were adder for his last race and he ran like an entirely different racehorse. He took the early lead and proceeded to extend his advantage throughout, ultimately winning by 10. Faces a far tougher group in this spot but he does seem to have the potential and if he runs the way he did in last, he could be a top contender.

The race shape could make for an interesting dynamic and scenario to play out on the track. Looking at the Plot, both #2 LAUDA SPEED and #5 BRING ME A CHECK show tactical speed (Quad I/III) and strong finishing ability as Large Squares. The contention of not only each other but from the other Quad I/III runners could make this race a conditioning race late. 

That scenario could assist #8 TURBINADO as the “lone” closer role and for a horse that has numbers on his best day to fit with today’s race par. #7 IMPRESSED lacks the same finishing ability (Circle) though has current form as he makes his third start off the layoff and based on dynamic could fall into a trip.

Tough race but landed on 3-KHOZAN’S SUCCESS. With the turn back in distance, he’s one of the few in here unlikely to challenge for the lead. He has yet to win at the distance but expect him to come charging late. 5-BRING ME A CHECK tired late in last, his local debut. But he got claimed from that race and now races for the top barn with the top rider in the irons. Plus, he could benefit from his trip over the track. 1-MAGIC CASTLE escapes Love the Nest. This isn’t an easy group but he won’t be facing that monster this time. Might have speed edge from the rail.

The early pace should be honest (20 SpeedRate) and Contentious (Fire) though just enough for #3 OMAHA RED and #8 MOTO MOTO to work a trip and build off their form from the races this season. 

That trip could allow for them to take first run on #2 HIDE THE DEMON a capable runner in his own right with a move forward projected from racing against the dynamic (X_FLOW) on October 8^th. #9 TETSU also carried current form and a similar OptixFIG from his October 16^th effort earned at the lower Optional Claiming condition where he will be stepping up in class today.  

Not sure how good 7-GOLDEN HORNET might be but he did look the part when he drew off to win his local debut by daylight. Of course, he’s meeting a much saltier group this time out. He’ll be immediately challenged on the lead. We’ll see if he can put the rest away. 3-OMAHA RED doesn’t exactly have a case of seconditis but he did finish second in his last three races. He beat all but one in his last, however, and that runner, a multiple stakes winner BTW, came right back to win again. 1-NAVY SEAL is worth a look. He can make up a ton of ground late and the probably contested pace could set things up perfectly for him.

#7 FOXGLOVE had a legit EX – EXCUSE on October 22^nd and wheels right back in two weeks to run in this race. Quinonez will be given another opportunity after the poor handling (TACTIC-) that played a role in the outcome on August 28^th and here last month. 

The rail draw is again unfortunate for #1 HOOSIER GOLD CASE though capable of improvement from her races this season and finds subtle class relief off those two starts today. The lack of a true “E” RunStyle horse in this race outside of #6 SHE TAKES FLIGHT. Tavarez from the inside could allow Hoosier Gold Case that opportunity stretching out off the sprints as one that has shown early speed in route races in the past.

Both #2 AIKEN TO BE TAKIN and #8 BEING CREATIVE fit back under similar conditions and from a pace dynamic with minimal change in running order with a “lone” winner on October 21^st. #9 BEZEL SET also returning from that common race could show more tactical speed today (Quad III) with the post, rider change, and remaining at the route distance.

7-FOXGLOVE seems a little too obvious with the drop in class but this mare is essentially a turf runner and maybe the barn is heading somewhere without a turf course. 2-AIKEN TO BE TAKEN ran very well in last when stretched out for the first time this year. She had done well at this distance in the past, finishing in the money in four of five. Could finish with a little more left with that recent route race under her. 4-LINDALOUIMAGE also drops. She hasn’t show much for a while so the class drop makes perfect sense.

The tactical speed looks to put Carte Blanche in the mix from the start. Figure Prince of Mayhem heads for the top in here and with a short field a lone speed type can be scary.  Don't be surprised if Yak rates closer early as well.

It's a big "if" right now for if we stay on the grass Sunday but this is also the only carded turf race. This is also a level that has twice been taken off the grass. If on, Cammack is excellent on a wet turf course and may be a short priced favorite. Hannity has a win on a wet turf as well and could provide more value.

Once a winner on Breeders' Cup day, Jack Van Berg had dropped to nearly the bottom. Somehow he was able to slide through that easy win for the $8,500 tag and now steps up a notch to $13,500. Santiago is not riding at Hawthorne Sunday though and has been the regular rider for this one since being claimed by Becker.

With Jim and Jim and Inside the Circle being a combined 0 for 31 lifetime, it is worth trying to defeat those two. Hurts So Bad gets the nod for me as he moves back to the main track and to a sprint. He figures to rate close early and just needs to avoid getting into a pace battle.

My biggest concern in this race more than anything is determining if both Becker and Rivelli are running both of their horses in this race. With the turn back in distance I think Khozan's Success gets a great stalking trip and gets the jump on the closers. The concern is he scratches though and Lauda Speed stays in. For Rivelli, I think the most likely runner is Bring Me A Check as he comes off the claim. Another with tactical speed, I like that he isn't being asked to jump up in his first start for new connections.

This is a very good bunch and I'm sure the connections of Omaha Red are happy they are not seeing Love the Nest again. With the pace to the outside, Omaha Red should be able to track the leaders early and then look to charge in the lane.

This one is tough to figure out as Foxglove takes such a big plunge off a race that wasn't that bad in her last.  She figures to be much more talented than the rest of this field but with just the one win from 19 starts there has to be some concern about how she will finish.