Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 SHE’S XTREMELY HOT fits strong as favorite; she’s the horse to beat as she comes into with some of the strong speed figures and subtle class relief from Canterbury Park. She has a habit of breaking slow (SLOG) and that should again be expected here. The SLOG caused her to work extra HARD to finish in a blanket at the wire back on September 16^th and the added time to recover (57-days since last race) makes sense in this case.

#4 MAIDEN ROCK could offer some value over the others returning to this condition and distance from the October 16^th race. She has upside with the rider change, a poor ride (TACTIC-) that day and found herself against (X_FLOW) the dynamic of the race shape. 

The TURF OptixNOTE Keyword upgraded #5 ORNERY ANGEL on October 16^th projecting improvement that she ran to with the show finish at 10-1. Her BTL effort is unlikely to be ignored and a shorter price is projected today, especially with the rider change as Loveberry jumps aboard. As far as her trip last month, there was some in-running TROUBLE early on in the race and was possibly stepped on from behind. The pace scenario and value could sit with #11 APRIL’S GEM returning in this spot and with a favorable Plot position alongside rival Ornery Angel as a Quad II Square. 

#6 TIZ HOPPIN could be in line to make her turf debut should the races remain on the grass. She has some hidden form coming into this race and off a key 33-day break giving her adequate recovery time from her two prior starts. She ran a taxing race (HARD) on September 17^th and that impacted here along with the Very Fast OptixRACESHAPE coding setting the pace (DUEL) on October 9th. Her presence in this race makes things tougher for #7 KANFU, one that is proven over the turf and today’s claiming condition. 

Longshot runners #10 RARE ACTION ATTACK (buried turf form and numbers on OFR/par) (and #13 MIDSHIP LADY (AE)) could also benefit from the higher SpeedRate as Quad IV Squares making up ground late to pick up horses in the underneath, exotic spots. #3 HEY HEY does not hold as “flashy” of a Plot though has some buried turf form and could be a cagey move by this barn bringing her back to the grass and looking for improvement on the two week turnaround.

#3 MY REDEMPTION has the appearance of a vulnerable favorite wheeling back in just 12-days off a taxing/HARD win at Mountaineer Park. #2 BETTER THINK TWICE has shown distance limitations (SHORTER, ONE_TURN) and has that challenge in play today and could extend to #4 CHRISTMAS PRESENT stretching out to a route and still unproven at the distance – value concerns on the latter pair. 

#7 KNIEVEL could pick up the slack in this case coming into this race with form (B- OptixGRADE) and OptixFIG in OFR and lacking “Red” in the Past 2 Runlines. Looking to get a little more creative in this race: #8 WHERE’S THE DAY GO is upgraded on a progressive pattern resetting their form cycle here on October 2^nd and improving with the WIDE trip and 74 OptixFIG on October 15^th. Those races should set up for a top effort today. #5 ICECAP follows a similar progressive pattern and has buried form shown in the recent OptixNOTES and back OptixFIG that standout in this field. His current form as shown in the Past 3 Runlines overrides the running lines and finishing positions “on paper” – factors that should have him dismissed by the public.

Tough to get past #3 TAHOE RUN as the expected favorite coming off a solid debut with the 81 OptixFIG that stands out over the field and B- OptixGRADE. He earned that effort in against open company where he returns today and could be a IL-bred to follow in that division. Fellow IL-bred, #1 FEVER NATION will step up to take on open company here. He ran well on debut with the 68 OptixFIG and B- OptixGRADE for the statebred Special Weight level on October 14^th and looks to have come out of the race well drilling a pair of solid half-mile moves since. #5 SLAVA UKRAINI also showing up with steady local works to make an impact here on debut.

Statebred #9 WESLAN returns to Hawthorne and presents some upside from that local debut where he was green in the GATE and showed run in spots and out past the wire. He should be fit exiting the route race at Keeneland last month and is given a flow upgrade from that race as part of the Very Fast opening half mile. #4 UNDERTOW exits the common race with Weslan on September 25^th pairing up figures and run (PLODDY) to his debut. He could benefit from the first time Lasix though has just one work since and ultimately might benefit from added (STRETCH) ground.

The intention was to run #10 SHARP AZ NAILS here over the TURF (MSW 8f) on September 30^th (scratched) where he would have been an ideal fit off the OptixNOTE from his HS Indy debut. The conditions change here as he has been off two months since the debut to consider in this spot.

#9 KHOZIE’S GHOST could hold a pace advantage as shown on OptixPLOT. There is other Contention (Fire) in the race and that scenario could benefit her stablemate #6 AUNT STELLA with her Plot position tracking also as a Quad I Square. 

Both #3 OWEN’S PLEASURE and #4 SWEET CONFUSION return from the October 22^nd common race at this condition and the pair earning B- OptixGRADES on the day. Splitting these two in form cycle, Owen’s Pleasure is upgraded projecting the move forward today, and with better handling (TACTIC-) from Ortiz as well. The subtle trips for this pair in that race assisted rival, #5 GO STORMIN GIRL with a PERFECT trip to win. She was further aided by the scratch of Khozie’s Ghost taking out some of the early pace for the race and creating a softer trip.

#6 GHAALEB THE GREAT is positioned as a Closer in Quad IV, though could shown more tactical speed shifting back to the dirt and finding class relief - a lower OFR today compared to her most recent races at Woodbine. In terms of form and exiting the higher OFR events, the recorded B- OptixGRADES can be upgraded for today’s event. 

#7 CAT ATTACK will look for a potential pace advantage with the Standard (Current form) Plot as she looks to carry her form back to the main track and sprint distance - holding a class edge over #8 LILY’S WOOFY. Trip is key for #4 WHITE LIES as well in this race. Her current form, class and OptixFIG could allow for her to overcome the pace in today’s race checking the boxes on those other factors.

#9 KEEPMEINTHE MOMENT is an interesting new face in this field. Her Del Mar form and races stack up on par for this event. She was claimed back in the September 2^nd event and scratched from a starter allowance at Los Alamitos on September 17^th and from a $40k claiming event at Churchill Downs by Manley on November 3^rd to run here instead. #6 MAYSTART comes into this race on the softer side number wise, though has form at today’s allowance condition where the “class” side of her form upgrades her in today’s race. 

It is tough to find any excuse for #12 MAUREENLOVESFRANK on October 23^rd in terms of trip that day. Going into the race itself, she appeared peaked in her form cycle and rebounding to the September efforts has her back on par for today’s race. #1 LONGTALLWOMAN wheels back from the pace finish in that common race and has improved in her races this cycle, however, she has paired tops in October where regression could be in play today and she must keep up her current form to compete for the top spot here.

The race shape projects light contention and a scenario to upgrade #11 FIRST KITTEN holding early speed, Quad I advantage. #2 WICKED GOOD will move off the rail coming back from taking KICKBACK- on October 23^rd. Her maiden win 80 OptixFIG from April stands out in this field and is above today’s OFR. 

That 80 OptixFIG from Wicked Good is a tic higher than the 78 OptixFIG earned by #4 LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT picking up her maiden win here three weeks ago and will be out to prove she can repeat against winners.  #10 UNION PARK GAL generally has not been as effective on the main track, however she fits with her current form and upgraded with the front wraps removed today. #6 BELLS OF JOY has progressive form and favorable improve OptixGRADE form cycle pattern coming off the B- OptixGRADE last month and returning in her third start off the layoff. #9 QUEEN EKATI could be upgraded as well also earning a B- OptixGRADE in the October 23^rd common race both fillies finishing for the minors behind the open length pacesetting winner, Dolly’s Line.

2-SHE’S EXTREMELY HOT should probably win this but she’s had seven tries to earn her second win since breaking her maiden already. On the other hand, she’s making her local debut, racing for sharp connections, gets the top rider in the irons, and stretches back to a better distance. In a race without much real speed, 3-GREEN BANANAS stretching out could be just what the doctor ordered. She could break on top and let the rest try to catch her. 5-DRAGONFLY KISSES finally drops to a reasonable level. She didn’t beat a runner when racing for $25k in her first start of the meet but should be far more competitive at this level.

Might not be a standout with so many unknowns in this race but 7-KANFU has had two local races at this level and distance and won one of them while finishing second in the other. 5-ORNERY ANGEL finished a bit behind top choice in last but she was closing fast while making her first start in weeks and her first turf start in over a year. Gets the top rider today. Figures big time. 10-RARE ACTION ATTACK was in far too tough in last after she was claimed back by this barn but she’s dropping to a far better level for this. She had some success racing in previous turf sprints. This would be a good spot for her to wake back up.

4-CHRISTMAS PRESENT says catch me. He’s been running out of gas in recent sprints but he could build such an easy lead with the stretch in distance that he might forget to stop. 7-KNIEVEL is likely to be favored after two decent efforts at the distance and level. However, he has been running out of gas late in his races and he might do the same thing here. 8-WHERE’D THE DAY GO stretches out for the first time this meet. He has had some success in turf route races so would imagine that he’ll be able to handle this distance.

3-TAHOE RUN seems likely to graduate. Strong effort in his career debut to finish second should have set him up perfectly for this race. 1-FEVER NATION is another that finished second in his lone race. He was meeting Illinois breds there and faces open company today but he’s another likely to improve with experience. 2-CELEBRATING HAL might turn out to be the best of the speed. He finished about five lengths behind top pick in his local debut but he was in early contention. Could improve from his trip over the track.

5-GO STORMIN GIRL could get an ideal trip once again. She was able to track the pace in last before grabbing the lead turning for home. She beat many of these in that race and should get a similar pace ahead of her. Can repeat. 9-KHOZIE’S GHOST has to be caught. She’s been plagued by frequent layoffs and comes off one now but she has managed to win five of her eight races and she obviously runs well fresh. 4-SWEET CONFUSION couldn’t catch top choice in last after a dull start but she was able o pass the rest. Got claimed from that race by a strong claiming barn and she’ll get the top rider in the irons for this. Watch for marked improvement.

Gotta give 4-WHITE LIES the edge. She’s been in the hunt in virtually all of her races and she does well on this track while one of her main rivals is a turf specialist and the other might be better on synthetic tracks. 6-GHAALEB THE GREAT has been in good form and he raced well here in the past but he ships in from Woodbine where he has been competing on their synthetic racetrack. 7-CAT ATTACK is the aforementioned turf specialist. She did manage to finish third in one of her three main-track races. She’s turning back in distance which, with her route speed, could turn into a good closing move. We’ll see.

1-LONG TALL WOMAN just missed in similar. Versatile sort in capable of running well on or of the lead. Most of her success came at the expense of easier but she did show in last that she can run with this type. 7-JOURNEYIST rides a two race win streak. Those races were against Illinois breds but the speed figures she generated were among the highest of any in here. Certainly figures. 12-MAUREENLOVESFRANK went off as the odds-on favorite in last after a narrow loss in her first start for this barn but she finished over seven lengths behind top choice. The outside draw did her no favors but she still might be able to make amends. 9-KEEPMEINTHE MOMENT is interesting. She was claimed from Del Mar in her last start and races outside California for the first time.

You wouldn’t know it by looking at her record but 4-LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT has been a factor in the majority of her races. However, she improved dramatically since getting here and just broke her maiden by daylight. Obviously meets fellow winners here but none are in great form. Can win right back. 2-WICKED GOOD meets her easiest field since her debut victory. She hasn’t been in great form but she did just split a better field in her first Hawthorne start. Maybe the additional drop will do the trick. 11-FIRST KITTEN owns better speed than most and is probably quick enough to clear the field despite starting from the outside post.

Looks like a chalky opener to the day. She's Xtremely Hot has been the most consistent in the field but is still looking for her first win of the year. She does come in off a nice work over the track. Green Bananas could be a sleeper in this spot as she picks up a speed rider and stretches in distance.

An interesting turf sprint as there are three speed horses drawn next to one another. The post draw and switch to Loveberry could make the difference for Ornery Angel. The Arnett barn has been fantastic this meet and the price may be right. A switch to Colon aboard April's Gem could be worth a look too. This one tries hard and may be overlooked from the outside draw.

Rolling the dice a bit in here as there is very little in regards to early pace in this race. Thinking there is a chance Christmas Present may be able to sneak off to the front and carve out the early fractions without much problem. If he can settle upfront he may never look back.

With two in here likely to show speed I think we can catch a price with Birdie Be Gone. A trip from just off the pace could put this one in a perfect spot.

A race where just about any of these could win. Lily's Woofy has been solid over the track, hitting the board in five of seven starts over the track. She has enough speed to get away from the outside post and rate close early. She could get the jump on the late closers.

Not a ton in regards to pace in this race. Journeyist ran a big race off the layoff last out and could easily repeat it. No excuses for Long Tall Woman. She's the other speed but does have a tendency to hang.

Lucy's Lookin Left was a good winner last out and draws well for this spot. There's a good chance she wires this field off the victory in her last. First Kitten did defeat Lucy's Lookin Left on October 1 but the post could be the determining factor in here.

RACE 5: It is unclear whether #9 KHOZIE’S GHOST will be favored here so will use her as the primary speed to present a threat on the lead. The others could get caught up chasing her and set up for #3 OWEN’S PLEASURE and #4 SWEET CONFUSION. Playing 3,4,9 and against #5 GO STORMIN GIRL coming off a perfect trip in the October 22^nd common race.

RACE 6: This race can be won by many in this field and the strategy to take a stand here with #6 GHAALEB THE GREAT as the value to single in the sequence, otherwise it gets watered down trying to get coverage and lose opinion.

RACE 7: Key around a couple prices in the sequence with #6 MAYSTART and #9 KEEPMEINTHE MOMENT. With the stand in leg two (R6) added coverage with 1,7,12.

RACE 8: Another potential anchor with #2 WICKED GOOD (could play alternative ticket with other runners in Leg 2 – R6) offering value with #4 LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT as the favorite. Value runners looking to close with some chaos 6,9,10,11. 

Going four deep in the first leg of the $25k late Pick 4. The 5 & 9 are the two major threats in here but also could push one another on the lead. If one shakes loose from the other they may never look back. If they do hook up, it sets things up for Birdie Be Gone to tuck in just off the pace and get the jump on the closers. Sweet Confusion has been solid this meet and should be charging late as well.

This is an interesting race as there is no runner really committed to the front. Using four in the second leg of the Pick 4 as Lily's Woofy could be one to inherit the lead from the outside. White Lies has been very solid as a sprinter but I worry if there will be enough pace to chase. Both Iggy Bigs and Ghaaleb the Great provide value at a price.

The toughest race of the late Pick 4 sequence. Many of these horses are very similar in style. I liked the race Journeyist ran off the layoff in victory last out. She may be the fastest to the front in here. Long Tall Woman loves this racetrack. She has had times though where she gets close but hangs a bit late. It appeared she did just that in her last start. If Morgs World takes to the dirt she may get the best trip of anyone in here.

Only two deep in the final leg of the late Pick 4. Lucy's Lookin Left dropped in class and ran a big race from the outside to break her maiden last time out. She could very easily repeat that performance. The biggest challenge may come from First Kitten as she defeated Lucy's Lookin Left on October 1st. The post may be what works against her in here.

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P 5 Wildcat Star 3 Chelsis Choice 7 Raptors Man

P 2 Need To Breath 8 Western Wish 3 Shes Nun Bettor

T 3 Kiss And Angel 1 Texaco Man 8 Andy Over

P 3 Girl Scout Cookie 10 Queen Of Soul 8 Baby Bonita

P 4 Juju Hanover 3 Better Sunset 7 Bettor Than Pride

P 7 Goodnight Irene 1 My Only Sunshine 8 Majestic Virgin

P 3 Jk Miki Mantle 1 Petipou 4 Night Shadow

P 5 So Much More 3 Dabarndawgswatchin 6 Voelz Delight

P 3 Twin B Tipster 9 Tuggingoncredit 10 Settin A Precedent