Handicapper Tips & Picks

Chris Block is established and known for their turf runners and will be represented by the pair of Illinois bred fillies, #1 MISS RIVER RAT and #4 AIR GERRI in this race. Coty Rosin could be flying under the radar in that category here with #12 MIZZEN GEE MA as they have has success with a limited sample and could be coming in live here. 

Amoss is also established and capable with debuting runners sending in #5 GOLDEN STAR. She has a long work tab and plenty of conditioning where fitness should not be the issue. Perhaps landing here is due to limited options to run on the turf where she was training in Kentucky and just announced the limited upcoming turf options at the Fair Grounds.

#7 KEEP LEFT debuted here for $25k against males and following a pair of scratches from Special Weight races in September at Saratoga. She was claimed from Ward out of the debut here and wheeled back to stretch out just two weeks later for Rodriguez. Despite lacking finish on October 14th, she stayed on as the “best of the speed” and was not asked after losing ground and should have the fitness coming back today. Her former stablemate #6 STARS ON FIRE projects to get a lot of attention given the connections and placement on debut. Overall landing here is not the highest sign of confidence and based on her visuals in running and works before debut left a lot to be desired and must show more.

As shown on OptixPLOT, #1 LOUIS P projects to find more pace pressure than she did when picking up the “LONE” lead win back in September at FanDuel with #3 QUEEN’S MISSION stretching out for this race and #6 WATCHING THE WHEEL also taking up a spot in Quad I.

The pace and trip set up for #5 KIMBERLY FRANCES stalking off that first flight (Quad I) with first run and strong finishing ability shown as a Large Square – the edge over the other off-the-pace runners, #2 WEEKEND PASS and #4 DARING DAMSEL.  

#5 PINEDALE has buried form from his races here this season. He recorded the B OptixGRADE, a “winning” type GRADE for the level back on October 7^th. That effort was validated on October 22^nd with the BTL run. He recorded a 5^th place finish that day and the BTL race was impacted by the rider (TACTIC-) and shows some positive intent returning here with a change as Mojica jumps aboard. 

The contrast in trips for #4 MILLARD’S SMILE with the PERFECT trip on October 22^nd and could find a similar trip today well-placed and positioned on OptixPLOT tracking #1 AHEADOFTHEGAME and #6 CINDY’S STORM. #3 AMANI’S EAGLE could be upgraded from his WIDE trip and fourth place finish coming into this race on an improving pattern for his third start of the form cycle. #2 CO CONSPIRATOR was dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) against the $12.5k restricted claiming group on October 21^st and will be stepping back up in class today.

Maker will land here with #8 MASTER OF THE RING by default scratching from a Churchill Downs higher level allowance when the races were taken off the turf back on November 2^nd.  He has upside making his second start off the layoff and from a competitive race with TROUBLE back on October 12^th at Keeneland. 

#1 ULTIMATE IRONY recorded a BTL effort with his run closing ground through traffic under today’s condition back on October 21^st. The trip was also not ideal for #3 GATE CREW given the post and ride (TACTIC-) making a few ill-timed moves before lacking finish when needed. He could move forward off that race with the change in post, rider and foundation and should offer value getting overlooked off his recent running lines and finishing positions. #5 DYNABLUE also wheels back for this race and the turf after nothing more than a jog not asked (NO_PUSH) on November 4^th.

#7 BEN’S MALICE should get the bulk of attention (value lacking) from that common race and his this place result. He tends to run the same race each time making that WIDE MOVE and then flattening out, something that must be improved upon and again projects to be short on the board. #6 POWER THROUGH could also get attention and with his early speed could compete on trip, though does have the class test here stepping up to open company.

#2 MYSTIFIER will receive a serious class test stepping up in class today following a scratch with the races taken off the turf here last Friday. He fit as “logical” type in that November 4^th $17.5k claiming race with buried form coming into this race with the poor rider TACTIC- on September 14^th and a TRAFFIC trip lacking racing ROOM on September 23^rd and can IMPROVE off that race and 4^th place result returning under similar conditions. The same class test and trip will be in play for #12 CHICKEN TRUCK drawn outside and as another entered and fit under the November 4^th race conditions.

#8 COME ON SWEET PEA could hold a major class edge dropping to run in this restricted claiming event. She could require that edge shifting to the main track and sprint distance, conditions not her ideal though capable.

#1 GHAALEB’S MAGIC can be upgraded from the October 28^th common race. The race had a higher OFR of 82-74 compared with today’s 75-67 RANGE. In addition, the race shape did not have much of a change in running order with Ghaaleb’s Magic making up ground and passing runners for fourth and earning a B- OptixGRADE, a higher GRADE than her rivals returning from that common race. #2 TIME BREAK earned a B- OptixGRADE at this condition back on October 9^th and can be upgraded in her third start of this form cycle, a positive rider change and on the Plot as a Quad I Square.

Assessing the “best” horses in this race, #1 HIGH BROW and #2 BOURBON DELIGHT check that box and fit here as contenders in this race. With that said, they must race here against each other and share a similar front running style. Both have benefit from favorable trips on the lead and will have to earn it here with the pair drawn side-by-side in this race along with the others rivals in #5 SURPRISE CAT, #6 A BOLD RYDE and #8 MAJESTIC ATTACK looking to keep things honest up front.

Value play alternatives: #7 SCAT SHACK ran a good second to a dominant winner in Co Conspirator at this level back on October 21^st and should hold his form and have pace to run at once again. The race dynamic also should benefit #4 FLASHY RICHIE looking for a similar inside tracking trip to the run on October 21^st and improve from the show finish with a slightly softer OFR this afternoon. He lacked the kick needed late even with all the right moves from Bendezu saving all the ground giving him his best chance. #3 ZARMAE finished behind that pair last month though has some back numbers that fit on par and shows a similar Surface/Distance Plot position.

Both #5 JACK’S SPRING BREAK and #6 TAPIT SAM were entered in an N2 $6250 claiming race on October 28^th and scratched from that event. The higher race par presented challenges to both on that day, but fit right into this race par and are upgraded in this spot along with their current form.

Current form is lacking on #10 GREAT PLAINES as he makes his first start back off the 189-day layoff. The decision to run here at the claiming level could be the right move to compete noting he was entered in an allowance on November 6^th. As shown on the Plot, Great Plaines positioned in Quad I above the ParLine could have a pace advantage returning with his top effort.

#1 FUTURE VISION lands here by default after the races were cancelled last Saturday due to weather and entered in a race that day. He has the current form (B- OptixGRADE) to support at this level and making his third start off the layoff with the likely “prep” running above condition on October 7^th on his side. Trip will be key with the distance change cutting back to a sprint and with the rail draw once again. 

Tough to make a conclusive assessment for #8 STUN GUN whether it was horse or rider that impacted the trips here in October. In both races he was in hand early and showed run in spots. A rider change will be made today with Lopez jumping aboard and will look for an all around change today.

Longshot on the ML, #5 CHRISTIAN C will return with a rider change (along with the barn going off the claim) returning from the EX – EXCUSE at this condition back on October 14^th. Given the EX last out at this condition, he can move up to compete at this level and should hold his form for the new connections. #2 WILD FOX comes into this race with hidden form looking at the C+ OptixGRADES and Keywords showing run despite the running lines and finishing positions. The class relief for this race moves him up, a visual that is shown on the Plot as a Quad I Square.

The class drop also moves up #6 GAGOOTS in this race and with the intention to run at this level by Watkins noting they were entered unable to draw into a race under similar conditions back on October 29^th. #9 NOT VERY GENTLE scratched from a similar conditioned race at HS Indy on October 27^th with the intention to run here at Hawthorne. The form from the September 30^th event has held up with two next out winners and the others from the race holding or improving their speed figures going forward. #7 BIG PINES SANDY is upgraded on the Plot from his current form in this race with the class drop. Distance wise he will still be tested over this two turn course though should have the fitness coming off the WIDE trip two weeks ago to support along with the class relief. 

6-STARS ON FIRE contested the early lead when making her debut at Saratoga but simply ran out of gas late. Her barn sports a high win percentage with second-time starters and an even higher percentage with first-time Lasix users. Impeccably bred 5-GOLDEN STAR has an abundance of works under her belt. Like top choice, she races for world-class connections that do well with most relevant categories with the notable exception of turf sprints, where they hit only about 8% of the time. Hoping that 1-MISS RIVER RAT owns good speed because it will be fun to repeatedly hear her name. But she does race for a barn that does well with babies and turf runners. I would also take a long second look at 7-KEEP LEFT. She tired badly when stretched out in her second start, her first for this barn, but she did finish second in a turf sprint, versus the boys, in her career debut. In addition, her route race was moved to the main track so she had a legitimate excuse. Love the probable price

Have to give the nod to 5-KIMBERLY FRANCES but a small nod it is. She’s in good form, she generally runs well here, and she’s in a pretty easy field. However, it’s possible the mile and a sixteenth could be just a few yards too long for her. 2-QUEEN’S MISSION is likely to be sent right to the lead. But she has had three starts on this track and stopped badly in all of them. 1-LOUIE P gets a big heart when left alone on the lead but really don’t think she’ll be all alone in front today.

Going to go with the 5-PINEDALE for the upset. He finished well behind the probable favorite of this race in their last but he was making up some ground late. Should be at the top of his game in his third start off the layoff. 4-MILLARD’S SMILE is likely to be heavily favored and could deserve it. He finished second in his last two after winning his previous two starts. He’ll probably track the pace early and get sent to the lead after they turn for home. Could hang on. 2-CO CONSPIRATOR moves back up in class after getting claimed from last but he has been competitive against this type in the not-too-distant past. He won three of his last five races, utilizing his speed to either go for the lead or to stalk. Could be tough either way. 

Was a little disappointed in the way 7-BENS MALICE raced in last because he has had some very good races in the not-too-distant past. They will put blinkers on his for this race, hoping to improve his focus. His fourth-place finish in the blanket photo in the Hawthorne Derby shows what he’s capable of doing. Deserves another chance. I did have a hard time getting past 3-GATE CREW. His last two races were at a mile and a sixteenth but he is not a mile and a sixteenth horse. He’s back to a mile today; the right distance for him. He had nine races at the distance, winning once but finishing second five times. He just might be able to grab the stretch lead and this time hold on. 8-MASTER OF THE RING didn’t show a thing before or after his maiden victory but he always faced tougher and one of the top barns in the US is shipping him here. Must respect.

8-COME ON SWEET PEA drops once more. This is probably the easiest field she ever faced. Most of her races have been on turf but she seems to be better on the main track. Loveberry stays aboard for a reason. 1-GHAALEB’S MAGIC split the field in her first start of the meet but she had been in good form prior to her brief vacation. Would imagine that she’ll improve after her recent trip. 7-IRISH HALO can close with a rush. Unfortunately she’s inconsistent. It’s possible that she could run by them all but just as possible that she won’t fire.

Can a first timer graduate in an Illinois-bred stakes race? Why not? 7-CAT ROYALE has been working as fast as many in here have been running. 3-MOM’S TOWN, 4-GULF BENDER and 5-GO ON GIRL are all Illinois breds, trained by Larry Rivelli, with a couple different partnerships, that never raced in Illinois. Who knows?

1-HIGH BROW, winner of last two, was claimed from both of those races, most recently back to Carolyn Wilson who bred him. He’s racing for the first time since May and his drills coming into this race are slow but there doesn’t seem there is much in here he has to beat. However, caution is urged. 7-SCAT SHACK finished in the money in three of last four including a second in last, his first Hawthorne start. Good tactical speed will allow him to sit right behind the early pace and keep him close enough to make a contending move late. 8-MAJESTIC ATTACK takes a much-needed class drop. He beat a total of three between his last five races but might start to get things turned around here.

5-JACK’S SPRING BREAK looks pretty obvious. He’s dropping to his lowest level ever while turning back in distance. Should finish full of run. 9-DEORA STORE is another dropper. His recent form leaves a lot to be desired but could be in the right spot to get things turned around. 6-TAPIT SAM could turn out to be the best of the speed. He’s likely to face plenty of company on the front end but he was able to withstand plenty of early pressure in his local debut and still managed to hold on to finish second.

The benefit of having run a race gives Stars On Fire the nod over the field in here. She showed speed in a turf sprint at Saratoga and led the field into the lane before giving way late. The addition of Lasix and a speed jock in the saddle makes the difference today.

Short fields make it very tough to look to anyone that has to close up too much ground late. There's only a couple with speed in here as both Queen's Mission and Louie P should be forwardly placed. Lezcano back aboard Queen's Mission could make the difference in here.

Unlike race two where there is very little early pace, half of this field appears to be committed to the front. With that said, Pinedale could be the one to get a great trip from the second flight. He ran well at this level two races back and had late run despite a rough trip last time out. Now leading jock Mojica is in the saddle as this one could get a dream trip.

No pace at all in the race which makes the difference for Time Break. This one has every chance to make the front and gets a switch in the saddle to Tavares who looks to be a good fit. 

With no standout in here it is worth looking to the horse debuting that has some upside. While the breeding suggests Cat Royale may want to go further eventually, this is a good starting spot. She has a long pattern of consistent works, gets Lasix, comes off a snappy bullet drill into this race and picks up a solid rider in Emigh. Maybe she is ready at first asking.

With the potential for High Brow and Bourbon Delight to duke things out on the front end from the start, Scat Shack could sit on a perfect trip in here. He rated just off the pace and ran on well in his last, posting a career best figure in his first start over the track. He provides some value potential in this spot.

Figures say Jacks Spring Break will be vey tough in here but I have concerns that this is not a great distance for this horse. We will see if the 5 1/2 furlongs is enough. Deora Store drops in class off what was a quality field for the level he raced at last out. He has been gradually improving and may get a confidence boost in here.

Big Pines Sandy took a pretty big leap off the claim in his last and while the running line doesn't look great, the figure was consistent compared to his prior races. This is a much more manageable spot as he draws well. Typically later in the day on these chilly days the track evens out and those who look to run on late and get into the mix. On top of that, jock Centeno has quietly had a very good meet.

P 6 Delicate Sound 1 Lyons Pride 2 Coligny Hanover 

P 1 Outlaw Aceofspades 5 Grand Poobah 7 Illgetmyown Thanks

P 2 Ron 4 Control The Power 6 Betterhavemymoney 

P 1 Legion Seelster 8 American History 4 Fabrizio 

T 3 Angels Express 2 Hp Maestro 1 Stable Genius 

P 7 Hashtag Money 6 Jack Panic 5 Tango Seelster 

P 7 Arties Ideal 2 Stonebridge Rex 5 Forefather

P 7 Arties Ideal 2 Stonebridge Rex 5 Forefather

P 7 Arties Ideal 2 Stonebridge Rex 5 Forefather

P 7 Woodmere Stealdeal 6 Mappos Lion 5 No Free Lunch 

P 1 Warrawee Vital 2 Wheels On Fire 3 Codename Cigar Box 

P 2 Hervey Hanover 8 Homey Joe 4 Hunter Hill