Handicapper Tips & Picks

The Plot gives an upgrade in position and shape to #4 GRAND HIDEWAY with the complexion of this race and his current form. He can move up off the October 21^st TROUBLE and finished stronger (CLOSE) than the 5^th place finish and running line may suggest on paper. His Plot position could take first run on #2 REMEMBER THE MAINE, one that projects to be shorter on the board of the two.

#8 UPBEAT MELODY should hold a pace advantage of the runners on the lead as a smaller, tighter Circle position above the Par Line with the lower 17 SpeedRate. That SpeedRate could present a hurdle for #11 THE BOSS FACTOR, one that on the other handicapping factors fits for this race. Those same pace challenges could again be in play for #3 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE, one that was upgraded stretching out for an event here on November 6^th and land here by default scratching from race with the races taken off the turf.

#3 WILDWOOD GHALY comes back for her second start following an EX – EXCUSE in her October 23^rd debut. She was unprepared at the start (GATE) breaking slow (SLOG) as a result and was not asked (NO_PUSH) for run after. She projects to improve off that race, show more early speed and can be upgraded further with the rider change and shift in class to run at the statebred Special Weight level. Her stablemate #1 GHALY POSSE also fits logically off her form, though requires to show more to win stepping up from the consistent B- OptixGRADES, a GRADE slightly below the “winning” for the level. 

The draw is unfortunate for #13 LEA RO and #14 ACCORDING TO ASPEN sitting on the AE as they both fit this race. According to Aspen is shown as a Large Quad IV Square a trip from off-the-pace in line with today’s race dynamic with the high 72 SpeedRate. That race dynamic upgrades #4 ZANDREA’S one that also can upgraded from the trip on October 23^rd where she is projected to IMPROVE. Her trip today sits in line with rivals #3 ON A TOUR and #9 KINGSBURY DREAM and should be longer odds of that set.

#6 SENSE OF SELF does not necessarily stand out on the Plot as a Quad II Circle, though is capable from that position. Some of her current form is tough to Plot as she has been racing in higher conditioned allowance races and should move up with progressive form along with the class change in her third start off the layoff. #5 SEAWARD will take the DROP in class from the higher condition on October 23^rd and returns to the condition of the October 14^th race, a race taken off-the-turf and should remain on the grass today.

Longshot #10 GOOD MONGOLIA is tough to make a case for on the win end, though has form back in her form that can be along for a minor share.

#4 CAPTIVATING MOON arguably is the “best” horse in this race and might require that class edge returning from the 141-day layoff. He has been training over the last few months working towards a return and landing in this spot for Block.  

The third start of the form cycle and stretching back out to a dirt route should have #6 READTHECLIFFNOTES sitting on a top effort today. He returned in the Pizza Man stakes off the layoff, a race he won in 2021 with that race moved to the main track. The honest pace and running on the yielding turf coming back from nearly a year away from the races assisted the ground saving stalking run from #7 RICHIE’SGOTGAME to pick up the win. The placement sprinting on October 29^th with the quick turnaround for the Lightening Jet stakes was not ideal all around for Readthecliffnotes, though useful to keep up his conditioning and racing off the layoff. The pace scenario today could also further flatter his RunStyle shown as a Quad I Square.

A longshot case can be made for #3 ALMAFUERTE as she returns in this spot for her second start of the meet. She looked to require the race on October 15^th after 32-days off and the race shape today could play to her RunStyle and form as a Large Square in Quad III. A more logical #7 CATANIA should be sitting in that stalking position and shown high on the Plot y-axis represents her speed to the second call and should utilize that speed in today’s race shape along with her finishing (Square) ability to present here as a contender coming back off the 84-day layoff.

#5 RANK AND FILE could also be sitting on a top effort returning today with the 37-day freshening and reuniting with Abel Lezcano, a live rider for a live Elias Lopez barn.

This event is competitive and could be more open as the par for this allowance races projects lower than other events run at this condition. #8 COURTHOUSE COVE could benefit in that scenario as he has held his form (B- OptixGRADES) at this level this season - grades that stack up alongside those from #3 BEEALEA this meet. 

#2 COMISKEY PARK has also recorded B- OptixGRADES at this allowance condition and some of the higher speed figures in this field; however, those numbers have been on the decline since the summer creating some concerns with his current form especially with the NO_FINISH on October 23^rd. His trip on the front end will be tested as well with the other runners positioned in Quad I/III. 

The extended sprint distance fits #9 MAC PANDOWDY one that is light on numbers as again he is given a class test here shifting to open company. As he comes into this race with form that could translate to a minor finish. The distance also suits #4 ANDREW THE GIANT another that has been overmatched this year at the allowance condition. He also carries similar back numbers for an underneath award, as well as the foundation this year making his third start back off the layoff.

On Standard, #1 SHANGHAI SILVER and #7 JACKS SPRING BREAK are upgraded off their current form, tactical speed, and finishing (Square) ability. Both are upgraded off their races this season with Shanghai Silver earning a B- OptixGRADE at this level on October 28^th and Jacks Spring Break finding class relief coming back off the 60-day layoff. #4 KANITHAPPEN drops in class for this race and could signal intent by the connections with that change as well the rider change upgrading to Baird this afternoon.

On Surface/Distance, #8 LARK could hold a pace advantage forwardly placed in Quad I with the lighter SpeedRate. He could require that advantage as he form and OptixFIG lack an edge over others in this race. The B- OptixGRADE at this level and distance for #6 TEA AFTER BALLET from October 9^th also fits on today’s race par/OFR, though is still lighter on figures compared to others in this field - something that should be compensated for on the board.

The class drop could also benefit #9 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN (Standard Square) for this race and an edge he would require cutting back in distance and returning to the main track. The distance change could be a hurdle for #11 MADELYN’S HEAT cutting back to a sprint where otherwise his form has held up this season and progressive on OptixFIG.

The gates will fly open, 8-UPBEAT MELODY will fly to the lead and that should be it…ballgame over. 6-RIVER FINN owns decent route speed but not likely enough to keep up with top choice. However, that could work to his benefit. He’s been tiring in route races but, with the turn back in distance, he could finish with a ton of run. 10-MASTER GUNS can get a piece of this. He never had a lot of luck on this course but he has had some success in turf sprints.

1-GHALY POSSE does seem most likely. She has had three races and ran well in all of them but came up just a little short. But this field does appear abnormally easy. Can get the job done. 3-WILDWOOD GHALY, stablemate of top choice, could offer the most competition. She was a non-factor in her lone race but faced open company in that spot. Seems likely to improve when taking on Illinois breds. 6-USA USA USA comes off possibly her best start. She finished third, making up about eight lengths after a lackluster break. Gets the top jock today. Could make all the difference.

2-RED HOT DEVIL will be tough if he breaks alertly and grabs the lead. However, that often doesn’t happen and he has shown little when he’s not in front soon after the start. Probable low price makes him hard to bet but also hard to bet against. 6-TOUCHOFCHILIPEPPER drops out of starter races. Like top choice he likes the lead. Not quite sure what will happen if he doesn’t get there. 7-DEVIL’S RULE might be the only one in here making up ground late. He displayed unusual speed in last but he’s not going to be quick enough to keep up with other speed in here and he could get clear sailing in the stretch.

You never know how things will unfold in a race which could change a rider’s strategy but this contest is filled with front runners which could set up well for 9-KINGSBURY DREAM as well as 14-ACCORDING TO ASPEN. Both are capable of coming flying off what promises to be a hotly contested pace. However, if too many riders decide to back off early and only one is sent, it creates an entirely different scenario. That’s what makes racing fun. 7-STACK SHACK drops out of allowance company. She’s one of the many early burners in here but she could hold a current class edge over her rivals. 3-SHE’S WANDAFUL rides a two-race win streak. Both wins were scored in races that were switched to the main track but she’s also been successful on the main track. She won four of her 15 races this year and missed finishing in the money only once. Too hot to overlook.

Not sure what happened to 6-READTHECLIFFNOTES in last. He never really got into the race. But sharp connections are bringing him back quickly so have to assume it was nothing physical. He stays on the main track where he belongs. Stretches out to a more favorable distance. He’s at his best when on the lead but he has shown that he can still be effective when coming from out of it. Hoping he bounces back. Slim pick. 7-RICHIESGOTGAME won his last two races, both on turf. He’s moving to dirt today but he has been at least as good on the main track. The top rider will have him biding his time early but could unleash a furious stretch run to take it. 3-DEVIL VISION is another that won his last two. His wins were both on dirt; one at Canterbury and the last at Keeneland. He’s making his local debut. It could be a winning one.

1-JOLIE RULER drops once more. She didn’t show much in her first two races of the meet but she’ll be facing what appears to be a far easier group at this level. 7-CATANIA has been claimed four times in her last five races. It’s been nearly three months since her last start and her only recent drills have been pretty slow but she should get the benefit of the doubt. 10-COOKIN ROSES, stablemate of top choice, could be the best of the speed. She doesn’t win often but she holds on to finish in the money quite often.

Can’t guarantee that 5-BRUCE BANNER turned the corner in last but he was an impressive maiden winner. This is obviously a tougher spot but he did appear to have plenty left in the tank at the finish of that race. Might be ready for this next step. 3-COMISKY PARK seemed to be much the best going into last race but he just ran out of gas late after fighting for the lead. That was unexpected. But he has been able to put away other speed runners in the past. There’s a good chance he’ll bounce back today. 1-WALKER’S WIN makes his first start outside Fanduel but this winner of last three races for a barn that wins with a high percentage of runners they start here.

1-SHANGHAI SILVER comes off a second-place finish at this level. That was a considerable improvement over his local debut. Top rider stays up (his last race of the meet?). Could improve even more. 7-JACK’S SPRING BREAK drops in class and turns back in distance. He finished third the last time he sprinted but this race is easier than that. Could outclass these. 8-LARK just graduated. He’s turning back in distance for this but he has been better going long. Can’t guarantee that he’ll be successful with the turnback.

This should have the makings of a card where pace makes the race all day long. Colder temps tend to lead to inside speed on the dirt and a very firm turf course. With that said, it is going to be very tough for anyone to catch Upbeat Melody in here. He's the course record holder and very fast from the gate. It doesn't appear there are any others who can go with this one today.

Ghaly Posse should have been a lock last time out but a terrible break cost her the victory. Santiago did everything right in the saddle following the poor start as he didn't rush his mount and she responded well by running on for second. A decent break today and she should wire this field.

Much like there first two races on the card, there isn't much in regards to early pace and the favored speed should wire the field. Red Hot Devil gets a distance that suits, should be fastest the to front and Centeno has rode very well this meet. Everything lines up for another victory in here.

Shifting back to the grass, Stack Shack has only one way to go and that's to the front.  She's been very good on the grass throughout her career and at this mile. As long as Sanchez can get her away from the gate, she should be in contention the entire way.

The distance makes the difference in this spot as 5 1/2 furlongs is about the max for Cookin Roses. The style is to wing it from the start and see how far her speed carries. Fortunately in here there is little to go with her as she should be able to cruise along every step of the way.

Comiskey Park is the true allowance horse in this race, battling at this level for some time now. The Hernandez barn has had a solid meet and this one has enough speed to get into a good early spot.  Look for Baird to hustle away from the gate and contend the entire way aboard him.

This is an interesting move but one worth a shot for Kanithappen. He has been basically a route horse and was trying turf as well, both with limited success. The 6 1/2 furlong sprint could be a good distance for him as he gets a rider who will look to put him in a good spot in here as well.