Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 HAPPY SAILS comes into this event with progressive form and form at this level as a logical contender. The move to the outer post should assist in terms of trip/pace shown in Quad I. Her stablemate #3 PRETTY IN PRADO must improve and finds a slightly softer spot showing up in this race for the tag exiting statebred company. She took money on debut off the trainer name alone not showing much with the WIDE trip in September and then was not asked (NO_PUSH) for run after losing her footing (TROUBLE_S) at the break. 

#4 SURE WASN’T ME gives up some recency making her return off the three month break and Hawthorne debut. Her races to date stack up number wise though some of those higher figures were earned around two turns. Value must also be assessed with the layoff and combined with the class drop.

Clearly #2 SHEZA SAVAGE was not right from the visuals (NO_PUSH) and the layoff that followed the April 23^rd race. She will return under similar conditions and if race ready off the layoff for Rivelli, should hold a pace advantage (Quad I) in this event.  #1 PALACE MAGIC does not standout in this field though has some hidden form coming into this race as the second start of the cycle and from the wide trip on October 30^th. Her other local start, the place finish here back in April earning a 71 OptixFIG fits into today’s OFR in addition to the back numbers that stand out from last year.

#6 KEEN RESPONSE physically presents on the TURF side, though handled the main track here under similar conditions two weeks ago. They had upside and buried form going back to the BTL effort on September 4^th at Canterbury Park.

#5 OPTION could be given an “excuse” from the October 7^th race here on the main track. There was a DELAY to the start and Option showed run after a rough start (TROUBLE_S) with the WIDE MOVE ill-timed (TACTIC-) by the rider that day. Their turf form and figures from this form cycle stack up on par and can be given another chance today (at a price) to transfer that form to the dirt.

Becker is coming in off a strong weekend showing. One of their winners returned from a layoff recording a career best and noted with #11 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR coming off the 105-day break for belated second start. Going back to August 5^th at FanDuel, Wildwood’s Warrior made a mess of the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) racing off the pace while her stablemate went on to win as the even money favorite. Improvement will also be required for #2 I’M YOUR VALENTINE; though another going out for live connections with trainer Frank Kirby. They were entered and scratched under similar conditions back on November 4^th and pick up first time Lasix and Orlando Mojica, a live rider change. Tavares will jump aboard #1 MORANT as he lands here for a route debut and from a common race back on October 2^nd that has been a moderately productive event.

The distance cutback to ONE_TURN upgrades #3 CHRISTMAS PRESENT along with current form should be well-placed here looking for that first win this Hawthorne season. 

#4 JUST RIGHT MIKE is one to keep on the radar as they could hold a pace advantage over some others in this field shown as a Square alongside the other “Circle” Quad I runners. #1 FAMA Y DINERO can also be upgraded as a Square on Surface/Distance and for Eduardo Rodriguez, a live barn, and steady works for this return.

The shorter distance could be tough task where trip is key for #5 ART HEIST shown as a Large Quad IV Square and will be closing late into the “Sun” Contention. 

#1 MIDNIGHT’S GIRL should be able to hold her California form into this event for Rosin on a 27-day turnaround and showing a local breeze here on November 13^th. Her form and figures stand out in this group and outside of her it becomes a more competitive horse race.

#7 HALLIE’S RAINBOW returns to this condition with form and a slight flow upgrade from the October 8^th race staying on as the BOS, “best of the speed” through a Very Fast opening half mile that assisted the winner, War Music to close from off the pace. That race shape combined with her being lightly raced is playing into the Plot position and Large Circle today. She will be joined here by stablemate, #6 WILDWOOD POSSE with live rider (and barn off the layoff) Santiago back aboard though will require a career best race to compete here today.

Fellow California invader, #8 IT’S GREEK TO ME could find this circuit and distance the right fit. She was able to hold her form on the main track at Los Alamitos though compromised in those sprints at the shorter distance and from the rail, a tricky post on that course.

#5 WILD FOX scratched from a $5k restricted claiming event at today’s distance to run in this spot instead. That placement could suggest positive intent and hidden for that fits at this level. They return to this same condition from the October 28^th race, a race with a higher 93-87 OFR that can upgrade the hidden form, the C+ OptixGRADES and Keywords showing run (WIDE, MOVE) despite the running lines and finishing positions.

#7 DANVILLE used their class as an edge to show early speed with the BOS win on October 28^th. They will return with a lateral class move first off the claim for Vanden Berg and should be able to hold their form and compete in this race. 

#9 DIAMOND DAVE was scratched by Childers with the races taken off the turf here back on November 6^th. While the main track could be a secondary option, they are upgraded on the Plot and tough to ignore off that visual in this race.

#8 PISTOL BOX (Quad IV Square) is upgraded over #6 PROMISING SHOES (Quad IV Circle) in today’s race shape though both require top efforts to compete in this race with the slight step up in class today. 

Both #7 W W KAN DO, and #12 LITTLE MIGHTY MAN are logical types in this race though have each other as the main challenge shown together in Quad I on OptixPLOT. They project to set the pace and how much that takes out of them could set up the race for others. 

#10 AGAVE KID could also get caught up in the pace shown in Quad III, though there is a scenario where they can track off those two main rivals and as a Square, still hold finishing ability. The recorded B- OptixGRADE at this level back on October 1^st stacks up for the level. #4 RICHIESGOTSWAGGER and #5 EASTER MUSIC will be looking for that stalk-and-pounce trip tracking as Quad II Squares.

#11 OUTRUN THE POSSE will come from the opposite direction (Quad IV) though is not a runner that must be as far back as he was in his two local starts. They were held up by the rider (TACTIC-) on October 1^st and compromised by the slow start and outside draw with the shorter sprint distance on October 30^th. 

4-SURE WASN’T ME isn’t a strong choice but she’s taking a significant drop in class following a terrible race in Iowa in August. Slow and few drills don’t inspire a lot of confidence but this is an awfully easy field and she does have a new, hotter trainer in her corner this time.  6-HAPPY SAILS finished third in last couple here; most recently at this level. She’s probably fast enough to win this. Might. 3-PRETTY IN PRADO is another dropping to a far better level. Her first two races were against Illinois-bred maiden specials. This field would seem to be much easier.

Most in here have been racing at the $5k claiming level but 4-KREWE CHIEF has been meeting tougher $5k claimers. He hasn’t quite been able to recover the form that gave him four straight wins here this spring but his third-place finish in last was a step in the right direction. 6-RIDE RICHIE RIDE could lead throughout. He was his last after taking the lead coming out of the turn but he does appear to be the best of the speed in this spot. However, he has been tiring late. He won his last at five and a half but not sure if he would have held on for the victory in that race had been at six, today’s distance. 3-OSCAR WINNER WALLY was in too tough in his local debut but he’ll be meeting a much easier group at this level. Might be able to run them down.

1-FIGHT ON hasn’t raced since May but he’s been training well for a while. He hasn’t had a lot of success since getting claimed by this barn but this does appear to be the easiest field he has faced since the claim and possibly ever. The connections of 2-JACK VAN BERG lucked out. This race was scheduled for turf but the long-range forecast suggested that the race would be moved to the main track and their recent claim has been extremely tough lately, with two dirt wins and a narrow loss in his last three races. There might be plenty of other speed in here to keep him honest on the front end but he could put them all away. Another recent claim, 11-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY will also benefit from the race being switched to the main track. He can display speed at times but it’s his strong closing ability that makes him especially dangerous with the plethora of speedy rivals in here. 

7-IRISH HALO has had some good races and some bad recently but think this will be one of her “good” days. She can close a ton under the right conditions and she’ll be facing a number of tiring speed runners in this spot. Switch to a veteran rider can help her chances. Hard to figure out 2-SHEZA SAVAGE. She’s back in Rivelli barn after nearly seven months off. Had only the single published drill during that time and she could face plenty of competition on the front end but, with her connections, deserves the benefit of the doubt. 4-DOLLY’S LINE wired the field in her last start. She’s taking on better here and has had issues with stringing good efforts together but, depending on fitness of Sheza Savage, she could be the best of the speed.

Not in love with 6-KEEN RESPONSE but he did just finish second in last, his first local dirt race, and he’s had few starts compared to most of his rivals and could still have some upside. 8-KING ZION is still a maiden after 29 starts but his overall record is much worse than his route record. He finished third or better in at least his six two turn races. Figures prominently. 2-I’M YOUR VALENTINE beat only one at 115-1 in his last start but takes on far easier with this drop in class. Some improvement seems likely.

I think the five and a half furlongs might be too short for 3-CHRISTMAS PRESENT, especially with the turn back in distance, but he’s been in great form since getting claimed by this barn. He should be tough if he gets out of the gate alertly. 6-VALLEY VISTA beat an easier group in his last start. It’s been about six weeks since that race and he’s had only one drill during that time but think he should be able to retain recent form. 5-ART HEIST should show some late run but he might run out of real estate.

5-BEG BORROW N STEAL comes off her maiden victory. However, that win was only her second race on dirt and it was a much better effort than her dirt debut. Like that she had two workouts in the month since that contest. The pace should set up. Maybe. Interesting that we have two California shippers in this race but neither is a standout. However, 1-MIDNIGHT’S GIRL seems like the better of the two and just might be the best of these fillies and mares. Her speed figures suggest that she’s the fastest in here. The turn back in distance might help. 2-PEACH COBBLER just graduated in Indiana. You would expect that she would face tougher in this step up through conditions but this field came up extraordinarily weak. Can make it two in a row. 

6-PROMISING SHOES just missed in his first start for this barn despite a huge jump in class. Late runner seems to be meeting a bit easier here and should find the fast early pace to his liking. Can run them down. 2-LAUDA SPEED drops and stretches out. He does own a “lauda” speed and might be able to grab the lead. He stopped badly in his only previous race at this distance but he was facing better rivals. If he can sneak to the lead in this one, he might be able to stay there. Recent claimee 7-DANVILLE won his last, a race that was moved from the main track to dirt. He led most of the way in that race but he’s been a versatile runner in the past so wouldn’t be surprised to see him come from off the pace in this race.

7-W W KAN DO scored his first win of the year in his last start, his 16^th in 2022, but he has been in good form for months. Would expect him to be one of the top contenders once again. 5-EASTER MUSIC beat top choice two races back when he was making his first start of the year. He went on to take on better in last with no luck. But, he dropping back to the right level for this and though he hasn’t raced in a month, we know he can run well off layoffs. 4-RICHIESGOTSWAGGER took on much tougher in his first start after getting claimed back by this barn but didn’t get beaten too badly. The drop in class should help greatly. Could have dead aim late. 12-LITTLE MIGHTY MAN has been in good form and finished second to top pick in last, as the favorite, but he could have a tough time overcoming the outside post.

Not a great bunch to open the card but also very little in the way of early speed in here either. Sure Wasn't Me should be able to clear and the cooler temps lead to a speed-favoring strip.

Pace makes the race once again in this spot. A short field and the inside horse has the speed. an inside speed bias could be the great equalizer as others are dropping in class. Ride Richie Ride looks tough, but take into regard the claim of this one out of its last race was voided as the horse did not pass the post race vet inspection.

This race will be off the turf and contested on the main track. If Never Have I Ever stays in, this is the fastest horse to the front and has the potential to wire the field. If he scratches, Jack Van Berg is tough, but the turn of foot may not be the same as shown by his lack of finish last out.

After a brutal trip the first time out, Dolly's Line ran her expected race in her last. Expect that she's quick enough to clear early and should contend the entire way under Santiago.

Last time out Just Right Mike got hooked into a speed duel and was the one who couldn't sustain the battle for the lead. Things don't appear to be nearly as contentious upfront in here which could allow for him to settle on the lead and catch a bit of a breather.

There appears to be a decent amount of pace in this race. With what looks to be a battle I'm hoping Midnight's Girl takes back a bit and tuck in just behind the early pace.  She was sent away as the favorite in a start at Santa Anita last out and does come in with a work over the track as she turns back in distance.

Promising Shoes ran a big race first off the claim last out and now takes the perfect class drop today. There looks to be enough pace to chase in here as he will just have to save some ground early and look to rally in the lane.

Richiesgotswagger held his own while facing much tougher last time out. The class relief helps along with a field where the pace should be contested upfront and come back to the field. Look for him to get the jump on the late closers in here.

With the late Pick 4 & the $25k guaranteed pool covering races 6-9 on the Friday card I found there were opportunities to spread on the front and back end while shortening up the ticket in the middle.

Race 6 I went 5 deep, using 3,4,5,6,7. This gives you coverage for all running styles in the race for a spot where there should be no heavy favorite.

Race 7 is sandwiched with the two California invaders. The 1 & 8 both figure as the inside horse runs for a Rosin barn that has been solid the last few weeks. The outside horse is the second time this owner has sent Manley a runner from out West. The first one raced very well.

Race 8 is another race where you shouldn't have to go too deep. Using just the 6 and 7 in there. The 6 is the perfect claiming drop for a barn that plays the game very well. The 7 ran well on a race that came off the grass in his last and steps up slightly for a very good barn.

In Race 9 you have the ability to spread again with the hopes of catching a price. I used 4,5,7,11,12 in there. The 5 has to be used as he loves this track. The 7 ran well last out but with concerns of some cheaper speed in here, the potential for the race to fall apart exists. Thus why I added in some prices who could threaten.

$50 ticket looks this way: 3,4,5,6,7 w/ 1,8 w/ 6,7 w/ 4,5,7,11,12

RACE 6: There might not be much value starting off the sequence with #3 CHRISTMAS PRESENT, though is a logical to kick things off. #1 FAMA Y DINERO (live barn, Surface/Distance upgrade) and #4 JUST RIGHT MIKE to a lesser extent.  

RACE 7: #1 MIDNIGHT’S GIRL as a key; with #6 WILDWOOD POSSE and #7 HALLIE’S RAINBOW upgraded as alternatives with the live Becker barn.

RACE 8: A spread with #5 WILD FOX, #7 DANVILLE and #9 DIAMOND DAVE to close out the sequence runners sitting outside the top morning line horses.  

RACE 9: With the shorter prices in the earlier legs makes it tougher to use both/either of #7 W W CAN DO or #12 LITTLE MIGHTY MAN in combination. Luckily there are some alternatives in the race and some “price” options to utilize with #4 RICHIESGOTSWAGGER, #5 EASTER MUSIC, #10 AGAVE KID and #11 OUTRUN THE POSSE. 

Ticket suggestions could look as followed and have to monitor the favorites in each leg shuffling them to create more effective tickets:

1,3/1/5,7,9/4,5,10,11

3/6,7/5,7,9/4,5,10, 11

1,4/1/5,7,9/4,5,10,11

1,3,4/1/5/4,5,10,11 

T 4 Showme Some Muscle 5 Magnificent Seven 6 Treasure Tee

P 1 Raptors Won 2 Tuggingoncredit 3 Need To Breathe

P 8 Sovereign 7 Chelsis Choice 2 Nootka

P 8 Better Be Donna 5 Mc Kella 3 Major League

P 10 Bad Rossa 9 High Rolling 3 La Petite Grise

P 4 Bettor Than Pride 9 Bring Your Fire 5 Dont Poke The Bear

P 1 Arizona 3 Girl Scout Cookie 6 Baby Bonita

T 1 So Not Cool 8 What A Rush 5 Look At Dat Kat

P 1 Voelz Delight 8 So Much More 3 Snow Shark

P 4 Come Roll With Me 9 Darkrshadowofpale 1 Rockinwithcustard