Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 STORM BORN is logical off his recent form and recording the B OptixGRADE (winning effort for the level) under similar maiden claiming conditions on the turf last month. Becker also has #4 AWESOME WILLY picking up in this spot from the October 28^th common race; dropping in for the maiden claiming tag and stretching out in distance after recording a solid 71 OptixFIG. The winner of that maiden event, Bruce Banner returned to record an 81 OptixFIG here in a November 13^th allowance sprint. 

#2 GRAND FESTIVAL has had his share of GATE issues and breaking slow. The drop in class and stretch out in distance for this second start off the layoff suggests positive intent. The barn will also be represented by #7 JACKPOT BOY one that has the route experience on his side sharing the habit of slow (SLOG) starts.  

#8 I’M YOUR VALENTINE is cross entered in a $7500 maiden claiming event on Friday and given a mention if they pick this spot instead where the class drop all around is beneficial. 

The pace scenario is a tough read for this race as there are no true “E/EP” RunStyle horses in this field as shown in the OptixRPM. Going back to last year and some hidden form, #1 SUN SQUALL could take up that role as he has races on the lead going back in his career. That could be the tactic in today’s race shape along with the rail draw and going first off the claim with Orlando Mojica taking over. 

The declining form could be a concern for #5 JACK’S ADVANTAGE one that otherwise fits in this race with a strong Plot shape and position; and perhaps did not take to running under the lights on November 4^th. #2 DARK HEDGES has been holding his form and no real knocks, clean Past 3 Runlines at this level.

The Plot also upgrades #6 CHICKS FOR FREE one that will give up recency returning from the 99-day layoff. Manley did have him ready off the layoff to win back in July at FanDuel and this horse has a solid Hawthorne record though was racing in lower conditioned races than today’s par.

The trip and pace is the hurdle again for #4 STORMIN HONGKONG with his late closing RunStyle/Quad IV, though otherwise a fit in this race off his closing place finish last month under similar OFR and productive October 9^th race. #3 BIG PINES SANDY validating that form with the win on November 12^th though tested here off that HARD/taxing effort just one week ago. 

Class and speed figures standout on #2 AHH MAZING making her return from the 199-day layoff and first start for trainer Greg Foley. She will cut back to a sprint today and might not “need the lead” or be able to make the lead in this race. #10 STEAL MY SUNSHINE and Baird are likely going to try and “steal” this race on the lead. Their hand will be forced coming back from the layoff and drawn outside in this race. 

Both #4 BELPERRON and #6 WILDWOOD BYE return here from the October 23^rd common race and overall similar effort as documented by the B- OptixGRADE. #8 YANKEE AGATE also returns from that common race in her second start back off the 44-day layoff and noted wagering support last month from the 10-1 morning line. The removal of the front wraps is worth monitoring today.

#6 SENOR MIKE will make his debut at the statebred Special Weight level and is upgraded as a new face with progressive, consistent form this season that fits on par. They will return with Tavares, the debut rider from back on October 9^th, a sneaky good debut effort all things considered. Stablemate #2 SKIP AWAY CARTER could also be upgraded with progressive OptixFIG in this third start of the form cycle and returning to the statebred level. 

#9 SMOOTH ATTACK with the expected odds and Quad I Square is kept on the radar. He will make just his third start at the statebred Special Weight level with class relief from the November 6^th race and would monitor the front wraps today. #3 KISS N BIZ also has legit early speed though has her challenges here as a sophomore filly. The connections are capable overall, and the placement could land her here by default following a vet scratch back on October 23^rd.

Those runners race here in contrast to the more "proven" types: #10 INSIDE THE CIRCLE as one that could hold the pace advantage as shown on OptixPLOT. However, they have knocks on other factors to weight as a potential shorter price in this race. They have run and come up short at this level many times in the past, the lack of finish losing ground in the lane, along with a colder barn and weaker rider aboard. #5 DASH TO THE CASH could be equal giving up the pace advantage for slightly more consistent form under today’s conditions and a stronger rider with Orlando Mojica aboard. The current form could assist #4 J J’S SOLUTION, an edge they would require lacking any other strong edge over others in this race.

Tough to know if this stakes race was the plan for #1 TAHOE RUN as Robertson wheels back in just a week to run here off a near miss (B OptixGRADE) finishing together and clear with the race winner at the wire. Their form and OptixFIG has been consistent and stacks up on the higher end of today’s OptixFIGRANGE.  The intention to run in this race could be there for #8 FEVER NATION with trainer Chris Block scratching from that November 11^th Special Weight race to run here instead. Orlando Mojica was named that day and had been aboard for the debut and will be aboard #3 CHI TOWN HUSTLER with Loveberry likely riding at the Fair Grounds.

Rivelli won the Showtime Debutante stakes with Mom’s Town last Saturday (11/12) sending her out as one of three for the barn in the race and will return here with a three-fold threat as well. The pattern for Mom’s Town, still a maiden and exiting a $25k maiden claiming race at Presque Isle. The closest to that pattern here is #2 RIGHT ON RICHIE, a Colonial winner back in August and makes a statebred debut in this race. #5 RIVZONAROLL has run his faster races on this main track to fit on par. The pace scenario could be a hurdle especially with the very quick #6 LOOKIN FOR BALA in the race as shown on OptixPLOT.

Tough to know #4 EL MUCHO making his debut in this race for a barn that has not had much success in this category, albeit with just a limited sample. It is interesting with Bowen aboard to ride and this being his lone mount on the card.

#2 TWOKO BAY fits right back under similar conditions from the November 4^th race. The form was upgraded coming off the October 8^th “prep” and should again find pace to CLOSE into with the higher “Sun” Contention and 70 SpeedRate.

#3 SOUL COAXING could have been looking for the main track when entered here back on October 8^th, scratched from that turf event. They will run here in their meet debut and finding class relief from the September 17^th Canterbury race with the higher OFR. Soul Coaxing has run most recently forwardly placed, though does not require that run style and can run from off the pace as shown earlier this year at the Fair Grounds. #9 HAPPY CAMPER could project upside with hidden form and “excuses” in his two recent starts. The TROUBLE seemed to impact him physically (OUCHY) on May 7^th and returned from the layoff last month a little short (PLODDY) off the 181-day layoff and should be fit coming out of that evening race 15-days ago and with a key rider change for Manley with Santiago taking over.

#8 FLATOUT WINNER has the strong Plot position to compete in today’s race shape, though current form with the “Red” Keywords and possible REGRESS from the November 4^th win with the quick turnaround here should be assessed with potential vulnerability. The early pace should be contentious as noted in part to the presence of #1 KHOZAN’S VALENTINE. The pace could present a hurdle for #10 LAVENDER EARL in today’s dynamic though given a mention. They are shown on the Plot as a Large Circle, that shape representing a lack of finishing ability compared to others in this field. Part of that shape is due to the October 8^th where Lavender Earl was PRESSED on a Very Fast pace for 6/8ths of the mile and that playing a role in the “lack of finish” late.

The Plot upgrades #9 IMPERIAL MOMENT as a Quad I Square with the lower SpeedRate. In addition to pace, they are upgraded for the second start at this restricted $5k claiming level and intent with the blinkers on and for today’s 6.5f distance noting a scratch on November 4th. Longshot #6 EMOJI GUY is an interesting player in this race coming off three straight races with subtle trips going back to September 8^th at Belterra Park as shown in the Past 3 Runlines. They were given a “longshot” look off that “buried form” when entered under similar conditions here on October 21^st when still with Jones and today entered for Manny Perez. 

#10 PINSON will cut back to a sprint and from a strong effort (B OptixGRADE) under similar conditions back on October 21^st with form, figures, and RunStyle/Plot in line with #3 DAAHERS BULLY one that is still looking to find where they fit against open company on this circuit. 

#11 UNBROKEN SONG requires a trip and more assertive rider today under Gallardo, though is showing progression and should offer value over #4 SIR ACEALOT both recording similar C+ OptixGRADES at the condition this season. The B- OptixGRADE from #1 HATCHET CREEK is tough to ignore though must find another move forward off that race just 15-days ago.

Not sure that 1-STORM BORN is going to be worth the low, low price that he’s going to go off at but I just can’t find anyone in here that seems capable of beating him, with the possible exception of his stablemate 4-AWESOME WILLY. Storm Born showed, on turf anyway, that he could handle the distance with a second and a third in his last two starts. Awesome Will stretches out for the first time and drops from maiden specials into maiden claimers. 6-CHARLIE’S BEACH had a couple works since his last start. The strange thing was that he was shipped up here for one of those drills and then back home for the other and that last work was very good.

7-BOONE’S PATH seems to hold the edge. Beaten favorite in his local debut needed that race after a 10-week layoff. Should be prepared to make amends in this one. 3-VALIANTLY DISCREET has been training well for his debut. His barn generally does well with their first timers. Price shot could fit. 9-HURTS SO BAD moves up in class but he’s quick from the gate, he’s been in competitive form, and there is a possibility that he’ll grab an unchallenged lead.

5-JACK’S ADVANTAGE should benefit from the drop. He won, and was claimed, the last time he ran at this level. The starter company he’s been facing recently was just too tough. Can awaken. 1-SUN SQUALL does look like the one to beat. He’s been in better form that most. However, he did get claimed from last and although he’s moving into another hot barn, you never know they will react to the change in scenery. 6-CHICKS FOR FREE drops. This versatile runner might be meeting his easiest field ever. Expecting considerable improvement.

An abundance of speed types in this race just might set things up for 6-WILDWOOD BYE. She raced competitively in her debut but kicked it up a notch when blinkers were added for last. Good drill since that last start should have her back on her toes. Might be able to edge by all the speed late. 8-YANKEE AGATE should be a factor. She had some good races as a 3-year-old in Minnesota and came here after a 14-month layoff to run competitively at this level. Now, with a race under her belt, she could be ready to put her best foot forward. 2-AHHMAZING and 10-STEAL MY SUNSHINE are probably going to draw a lion’s share of the action. Both ship in for top-notch barns, trying to earn their maiden victories. Both have been training well but both come off layoffs. They could be vulnerable.

5-DASH TO THE CASH gets the nod. He’s been splitting a lot of fields but this could be the easiest field he has yet to face. Expect him to make his best move late. 4-J J’S SOLUTION completes the sprint-route-sprint cycle. Like the early zip he showed going long in last. The turn back in distance could allow him to finish with something left. 6-SENOR MIKE meets Illinois breds for the first time. He hasn’t shown much so far but this could be his wake-up spot.

5-RIVSONAROLL tired late in his first three starts but in last, his first race against Illinois breds, he made every post a winning one and drew off by five. He could face far more early pressure in this race, and he might not even be the quickest of these, however, but he had plenty left in the tank at the finish of last. If his last is any indication, 6-LOOKIN FOR BALA is the quickest of these. He was an easy winner in his debut at Fanduel and then set blistering fractions in his first start here. If he is first to the lead, he might never look back. 1-TAHOE RUN can run them down. He’s still a maiden but he narrowly lost his first two starts and he was in against open company in both. He’s not as quick as the top pair but he won’t be far back. Wouldn’t surprise if he flew by late, especially if there is a prolonged speed duel. 8-FEVER NATION finished second in his debut and had three sharp drills since. Barn’s runners often improve in their second starts. Deserves a long second look.

8-FLATOUT WINNER crushed the field in last at this level while making his local debut. That race had scratched down to six after being moved to the main track but he had been in good form, on dirt, at Canterbury prior to getting here. This field does appear to be slightly tougher but nothing he can’t handle if he runs the way he did in last couple. 4-SEMINOLE BEACH is another in good form. Winner of two of last three finished in the money in eight of 12 this year, winning three times and finishing second in another five. Like that he’s capable of running well on or off the pace. 7-MR SOLO could contest the pace. He finished second in allowance company in his first start after getting claimed by this barn. Two good works since should have kept him at the ready.

3-DAAHER’S BULLY drops. He tired in last, his local debut and his first start after the claim, but he is meeting a much easier group today. Might not get caught. Don’t overlook 10-PINSON. He’s turning back in distance for this. If you check his past performances for his last 10 races, nine of them were routes. The other? A sprint that he narrowly lost at 67-1. 1-HATCHET CREEK is another worthy of another look. He just finished second at 27-1 after finishing up the track versus easier in his first start of the meet. However, that first start turned out to be a “key” race. He figures prominently again in this one.

This isn't a great bunch to open the day and the Becker runners should go 1-2. Awesome Willy looks to be a bit more proven on dirt and should provide more value. I'm Your Valentine is hard to figure out as this is the 3rd or 4th time that this one has been entered and then scratched to run in a different spot.

I really liked the effort out of Baladine last time out. That was a quality bunch and he held his own in his first dirt start. He should be forwardly placed and should dig in and battle if challenged.

A short field and a talented field that is evenly matched but little along the lines of early pace in this race. The inside will be an advantage for Sun Squall as he races first off the claim. He should be close early and the shortest way around on an expected inside speed favoring surface is the way to go.

Ward has been very good when picking spots to send horses to Hawthorne. This looks to be one of those. Despite the outside draw, this runner has speed to clear and should be ready off consistent works following the layoff. Expect a solid performance today.

What an incredibly tough race! This field is evenly matched and could be very bunch up much of the way. I think there will be enough pace to chase but not sure if Seminole Beach has enough class to compete. He's won two of this last three and Colon gave him an exceptional ride last time out. Maybe he is in with an upset shot today.

I was a bit down on Sir Acealot going into his last start as we was a bit flat two race back in a spot where he figured greatly. It was an improved effort in his last. If he can build off that performance he should be right there late with these.

P 1 Carlas Mach 4 Sun Chip 9 Smart Thinking

P 1 Kaporal 2 Yourtheone 3 Acapulco Sunburn

P 7 Arties Ideal 9 Night Club Hanover 4 Hapuna Beach

P 7 Arties Ideal 9 Night Club Hanover 4 Hapuna Beach

T 10 Angels Express 6 Hp Maestro 5 Stable Genius

P 2 Real Willey 9 Beyond Better 5 Legion Seelster

P 4 American History 5 Saulsbrook Victor 7 Cadillac Bayama

P 4 Camara Moment 5 Stone Carver 7 Lyons Pride

P 1 Giddy Up Max 4 Magical Albert 2 Uncontrollable

P 4 Warrawee Vital 5 Wheels On Fire 6 Century Heineken

P 6 Jabberwocky 7 Hervey Hanover 98 Homey Joe

P 6 Jabberwocky 7 Hervey Hanover 98 Homey Joe

P 6 Respect Our Flag 9 Forefather 3 Ron