Handicapper Tips & Picks

The early pace should be contested by #1 COAL DOWN ROAD and #4 THE LAST FACT as shown on the OptixPLOT. Coal Town Road is upgraded as the Square, however the “Red” Keywords with the NO_FINISH races at this maiden claiming condition to create concern even with the Plot at a short price. The Last Fact will make their first start at this lower maiden claiming level and look to have intent with the steady worktab coming back from the 401-day layoff by Kirby, a barn that has had solid success so far this meet with a limited sample.

The contention and early duel could assist #5 UNCLE DICK and #6 WILDCAT HAGRID another pair that have form concerns in their own right and would require the trip to set up their win.   

#6 NOT VERY GENTLE had a look on November 12^th though his chances were cut short with legitimate TROUBLE+ in the early stages of the race. They appear no worse for the wear wheeling back in just a week for Haran. Not Very Gentle, shown with a similar Surface/Distance Plot should offer value over #5 TALLESTOFTHETALL one that recorded a similar C+ OptixGRADE at this level and did so saving ground without excuse or trouble in his way on November 6^th.

According to the Plot, there should be minimal excuse for #4 YAK in terms of trip with a potential clear pace advantage (Quad I) in this event, unless.... Haran has #3 FINAL CALL in the race and stretching him out in distance could see him closer to the pace as they have in the limited route races going back in his past performances, a change from the Quad IV Plot position.

#1 UNBROKEN SONG can up upgraded returning to the two-turn (ROUTER) distance and from Standard. They are cross entered in a race earlier this week and should be monitored where they decide to run. The added ground should also benefit #2 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE one that in addition to the STRETCH out in distance will find some class relief from his recent turf races.

#4 MY REDEMPTION (vulnerable) was able to work a trip (TACTIC+) to win 9-days ago and could struggle to back that up as the favorite here with the change in class, distance, and form cycle regression. His Plot position lacks an edge in today’s race shape and the “Red” Keywords in the Past 3 Runlines indicate negative form cycle factors as well. Looking at the Plot it would be tough to take My Redemption over #1 GLOBAL EMPIRE with the shift in odds paired with the Plot visuals. 

The presence of a soft, weak and/or vulnerable favorite should create value and getting creative with horses that might not “jump off the page” by comparison. #7 ALPINE GHOST will make his second start off the claim and class relief from the return races this season given the higher 87-79 OFR in those October events. There is the shown “Fire” Contention, however Alpine Ghost is listed as the only EP (no E) runner in this field with a potential, hidden pace advantage. The slight addition of ground (STRETCH) and class relief with today’s lower OFR should move up #5 MON AMI FUZZIE for this race.  

The lower SpeedRate could benefit #2 LORD DYLAN and #6 TWO COOKIE RULE and the two preferred again over My Redemption, however they still must show up with a top effort and lack a strong edge over others in this race.

Lone Quad I Square, #9 ARCH FLYER is a major upgrade and especially at the value projected by the morning line. #8 HER GOLD MINE also moves up returning to a sprint and was following a progressive form cycle pattern prior to the route race on October 16^th and could still be sitting on that peak effort here.

#5 RANK AND FILE could be sitting the right trip stalking as a Quad II Square; as that trip is again key for this shorter 5.5f distance. Trip will also be key for #11 PRANCIPANTS for the distance, their RunStyle and for this shorter 5.5f distance. With that said, there should be compensation on the board and Prancipants has numbers this season at FanDuel that stack up in today’s OFR if able to translate to course. The front wraps should also be monitored as they were added for the layoff return on November 13^th and wheeling back here in just a week.

Some intent could be in play for #2 SUPERSTAR DIVA by Zawitz returning from another layoff (negative sign and tougher to take a short price with the excessive layoff lines) noting a trainer scratch on November 13^th, with #3 WANNA HAVE FUN also a trainer scratch from that same race to run here instead.

The tendency to break slow (SLOG) has been problematic for #3 FIXICO and must “fix” that to compete here. That said, they have upside with the subtle trip (MOVE, TROUBLE) on October 16^th and projected to IMPROVE off that race. They could be under the radar with Martinez also sending out #11 SCARLET CITY (NO_VALUE) - a runner that is much more at home on the turf as they return to Hawthorne in this main track sprint. 

#4 TALE OF THE NILE was given a WARM_UP (can have negative impact in the race) on October 21^st and still ran a competitive (B- OptixGRADE) with the WIDE trip. Their show finish could also be further upgraded with the top two finishers setting the pace throughout and finishing together at the wire.

Perez has #5 EMOJI GUY entered here as well as for a race on Saturday given the upgrade in either spot off their buried (OptixNOTES shown in the Past 3 Runlines) form. The rider change with Bowen named here and the subtle change in distance with Sunday’s race a slightly lower OFR is also noted with both races at this restricted $5k level. #7 OUTRUN THE POSSE also given a mention here should they take this spot over a similar condition in the Friday (11/18) finale.

The timing as it relates to current form cycle is in question for #5 SHE’S XTREMELY HOT (Soft Favorite) wheeling right back in just 9-days from a taxing, HARD effort in order to win on November 11^th. #8 NOFANSINTHESTANDS should offer value with the Robertson trainee in the race and upgraded on the Plot of the pair shown on Standard a strong, Large Square, for the two side-by-side.

Longshot #2 BEZEL SET wheels back in two weeks looking to IMPROVE off the subtle November 6^th trip. They were caught WIDE early and against the dynamic (X_FLOW) with a Slow (S O4S) early pace and with minimal (NO_PUSH) as from the rider. A similar WIDE trip and the X_FLOW dynamic also played against #3 BEING CREATIVE out of the same common race and #7 PRESENT OF HERO, though more obvious of the group with the B- OptixGRADE and show finish. #4 ROYA could hold a pace advantage (Surface/Distance Quad I Square) as they stretch back out in distance and find class relief from the October races here this season.

The class drop is in play for both #1 GYPSY WIFE and #6 EMBARRASING for this race and the change comes with some concern along with the surface change as both tend to prefer the turf or synthetic.

There are no strong knocks on projected favorite, #1 JACKS SPRING BREAK (Quad I Square) wheeling back to make his first start off the claim and back to a preferred route of ground. He projects to be favored and there are others here that fit as well and with the option to get creative outside the obvious:

There is a group that will show up today noting they were entered in a similar conditioned race and route distance back on November 5^th, the day the races were cancelled due to weather. #7 MINISTRY OF ART could present value with a similar Plot shape and position as an alternative to Jacks Spring Break. The Plot upgraded #9 BLOOMING GARDEN earlier this month, however, today finds a tougher dynamic to work a trip from. The race shape could suit longshot, #2 RIP IT RYAN from off the pace – Quad IV Square. He has the 110-day, three month layoff to overcome though has a competitive race and 73 OptixFIG from a similar conditioned race here last December that stacks up both on Speed and Class with today’s OFR. #3 DARE GOES DA DEVIL has shown run in spots this season though still has yet to run that “fast” race required to compete. Today just might be his day on an “every other” pattern with improvement expected with the form cycle and added (STRETCH) ground upgraded on Surface/Distance.

#5 STORM’S REFLECTION (No Value) will return to this circuit and could receive attention off that local form. His trip also projects to be compromised as a Circle with the others in this field paired with the higher Contention and SpeedRate.

1-COAL TOWN ROAD has been a contender in most of his races and he held the lead in many of them. But, he’s still a maiden after 13 starts. He did get claimed from last however and his new barn has had a lot of luck with their first-time claims. Maybe this gelding will finally break his losing streak. 4-THE LAST FACT is quick from the gate and could be the first one to the front end. However, he has always run out of gas. Plus, this will be his first race in 13 months. On the other hand, he has been working consistently for his comeback. Could return a whole new racehorse. 5-UNCLE DICK, like top choice, faced better in most of his starts (10) but also hasn’t had a lot of luck when meeting lesser rivals. But, this is an easy and wide-open race. Maybe.

4-YAK has improved with each passing start since getting claimed by this barn. Most recently he finished second, beaten only a half length. His seemingly closest competitor in here finished six lengths behind him in last. Seems most likely. As mentioned above, 5-TALLESTOFTHETALL did finish about six behind top choice in last. On the other hand, he beat that rival by about a length in their previous start. With similar running styles there could be neck in neck down the stretch after tracking the early pace. 7-HONEST TO GOODNESS and 2-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE are a couple of turf runners with very little experience or success on the main track but both are dropping in class, maybe to their lowest levels ever, and are probably worth another look.

2-LORD DYLAN is a slim pick in what appears to be a pretty tough race for this level. He beat decent fields in his last two. Those races were at five and a half furlongs and he’ll have to traverse six and a half today but he did finish those last two starts with plenty of energy. 4-MY REDEMPTION improved greatly after moving from a synthetic surface to dirt. He finished second on in his first dirt start at Ft Erie, shipped to Mountaineer to win a first-level allowance and then here to score in a non-winners of three. He’s been claimed from two of those races. Makes his first start for this barn and they are turning him back in distance for this, though all of his wins came in routes. Not sure it will work out. 1-GLOBAL EMPIRE was claimed from a winning effort in his last start. His speed figures are a bit lower than those of the top pair but it would be a surprise if he improved, at a price, in his first start for this barn.

Would like 5-RANK AND FILE better if this race was at six furlongs but she should be able to get the trip. She finished second off a layoff in last but could finish even stronger in this speed-filled race. 2-SUPERSTAR DIVA has had some good races off layoffs and some that weren’t quite as sharp. She won here this past May, facing similar rivals. However, this race does appear to contain far more other speed so not even sure she’ll make it to the lead. 9-ARCH FLYER might turn out to be the best of the speed. She tired in her first start of the meet, racing for the first time in about seven weeks but she was also wearing front wraps for the first time in quite a while, possibly ever. Would probably move up in my estimation if those front legs were clean.

4-TALE OF THE NILE, like Scarlet City and Nyoman, has been around the block more than a few times. This 9-year-old finished third at this level in his last start despite getting off to a poor start. Expect him to display better speed today and he might even try to wire the field. 11-SCARLET CITY drops. Possibly to his lowest level ever. He’s been racing primarily on turf but he’s been every bit as good on the main track in his career. Good speed will be tempered by the turn back in distance but he could finish with a ton of run. At this level he might be able to stay there. Local favorite 6-NYOMAN is in the house. Seemingly ageless 10-year-old hasn’t won this year, which makes him eligible for this race, but he always seems to be in the hunt. Stalker will try to pounce late. 

Not a huge fan of any in this race so might as well take a shot. 1-GYPSY WIFE finished well back in last, his first start in 10 months, but she switched barns after that race, drops in class, ships in from an easier circuit. She had a couple of good local works. Her races over the last year, layoff included, have been awful but expecting some improvement, maybe enough improvement, today. 5-SHE’S EXTREMELY HOT is likely to be favored after winning last but this is a tougher group and she barely held on for that victory. Could be vulnerable at a short price. Don’t know what to do with 6-EMBARRASSING. Two of her last four races have been stakes and now she’s dropping almost to the basement. She is a turf runner and had little success in her few main-track starts but she at least needs to be considered in that is likely her easiest field ever.

8-VITALE could grab an easy lead and just cruise on the front end. He has primarily been a turf runner and he was claimed from last but he did show dirt ability in that last race and he looks like the only real speed in this one. 1-ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS ran well in both starts this meet. He won his meet debut, got claimed, and then finished third in his first start for this barn. Moves into state breds for this. Figures prominently. 2-BABA’S BOY scored in his last downstate, beating open company. He’s had some success on this circuit as well as versus state breds. Looks like he could be the best of the rest.

2-CALIBRATE didn’t run a step in his local debut and finished over 40 lengths behind the winner, getting eased late.  But he had been in great form prior to that race. He looks like the only real closer in this speed-filled race. Might fly by. 3-MAGIC CASTLE stretches out. Monster sprint winner of last certainly looks like the quickest from the gate with the stretch out. Might never look back. 1-GITA’S LAD just dominated state-bred allowance company. He was making his first start in over four months. Might be even fitter for this. Could repeat.

1-JACK’S SPRING BREAK only split the field in his first start of the meet but he was turned back in distance for that race. Claimed from last, he stretches back to a more advantageous distance today. Should be far more effective. 5-STORM’S REFLECTION tired in his first start as a winner but was shipped to Churchill for that race. He’s back here and dropped to the right level. Good speed could have him challenge for the lead and he just might be able to lead throughout. 8-FRISCO LINE stretches out. He was soundly beaten in his only other two-turn race but this race is far easier than that Oaklawn event and the way he finished his two races here suggest that he could appreciate the extra distance.

Tough to pick Coal Town Road because he will be such a short price but tough to pick against too as there aren't any others that look to challenge. He has speed, draws the inside, the track should favor speed and he runs for a barn having a solid meet. It looks like he should be able to clear the lead and never look back.

The pace in this race has the potential to be a crawl as nobody in here is committed to the front. Yak has improved with each start this meet and looks to be sitting on a win. He rated close in his last and could potentially inherit the lead in here.

It's a quick return but Rank and File merits a look as she comes off a good effort just a week ago. After tossing her head early she closed well late. With some pace along the inside, maybe she tucks in just behind the early leaders and runs on in the lane.

The post isn't great but with the long run down the backstretch I expect Scarlet City finds a good spot heading into the turn. He switches surface and turns back in distance as he has grabbed a couple of wins at three quarters already in his career.

Not sure if Gypsy Wife is good enough but the move from an open $12,500 claimer to a conditioned $6,250 spot is a significant class drop. She comes in with a couple of good works over the track as she makes he second start off a ten month layoff. Maybe she steps up at a price.

Liking the move off the claim here for Martinez as Vitale steps back up in a spot that isn't super tough for this level. He has enough speed to clear from the outside and may be able to back things down on the front end. 

The top two selections are the only ones with speed in here as Megan's Honor appears to be the fastest to the front. He was game while stretching in distance last time out and is likely to improve in his second straight around two turns.

Very little in regards to early pace in this race as Storm's Reflection looks to try to clear the lead and wire this field. He took a shot at Churchill last out but that was likely too tough. The return to Hawthorne and class drop could make the difference today.