Handicapper Tips & Picks

Tough to get too creative in here with #4 TAPE TO TAPE and #1 LAKE MILLS logical types in this race. The pacesetter Tape to Tape is upgraded on Standard (current form) as a Quad I Square above the Par Line with his Surface/Distance also worthy of an upgrade exiting the October 30^th race as the BOS (Best of the Speed) and setting a fast (X_FLOW) in the process. Lake Mills should find a stalking trip as shown as Quad I Square in the center of the Plot. The “Fire” Contention is a change from the “Snowflake” on October 30^th though both events holding a similar SpeedRate.

#9 TOM’S LAST GENERAL will need a lot of racing luck to win from Quad IV, though will be closing late and lacks any “Red” in the Past 3 Runlines, suggesting a horse in form. #7 COMISKEY PARK also sits favorably on the Plot, however his Past 3 Runlines show some declining form. OptixFIG, to consider in terms of value.

#2 WESLAN fits on the class drop keying his OptixFIG here at Hawthorne this season stacking up in today’s OptixFIGRANGE/OFR. Those efforts also move him forward in terms of “pace” capable of sitting closer to the lead as shown as a Quad I Square. #4 SNOWMOBILE projected a DROP in the Special Weight event two weeks ago and should move up with the change here. 

As far as the first time starters; Lilia Gonzalez has shown up with live in a limited sample and has a steady work tab for this race and circuit for #6 C V RONIN LEGACY, an Indiana bred picking this spot. #7 FAITHFUL KING will look to be the first debut winner for Vanden Berg. She had just a limited sample of first time starters though did finish second here with debut runner Ten Count on September 30^th in a 8f turf Special Weight race.

#5 MAN ON ATTACK was not asked for run (NO_PUSH) after the slow (SLOG) start in his September 17^th race. There was some intention to run here on October 1^st entered and scratched from a $25k turf sprint. They have the 69-day layoff without any published works and Baird was not named on 10/1 and picks up the mount here.

The “Sun” Contention and higher 58 SpeedRate are in play for this race. Quad I Square #9 MISSION BELLE could have the edge of the pacesetters, though overall could be softened up late (especially with the quick #6 SEEKING SECA in the field) and should be considered with the projected shorter odds. #4 WANDA STRONG should be keeping the pace honest as well though as far as class might lack the second call speed, the representative position in Quad III. 

#7 KINGSBURY DREAM should find a favorable trip staking from Quad II and with current form (clean Past 3 Runlines) and OptixFIG in OFR.#5 JUDY’S MS OFFICER has a longshot look in here and could be upgraded as she makes just her second start on the TURF and shown on OptixNOTES a projection to improve with that surface switch.

The Contention and SpeedRate could be enough to set up Quad IV with #3 ACCORDING TO ASPEN, one that has been entered many times this meet and with those scratches gives up recency coming into this race off the 76-day layoff. Price compensation is required and should be there to fit along with her RunStyle and buried form. #1 KATHAAN holds the edge in recency though sits below coming into this race on OptixFIG and must shown a new top to compete for the top spot; a factor to consider with the number on the board.

The route distance and many in this field lacking two-turn form and races makes for a tricky (Red PlotFit) race shape. #7 IMAGINE GOLD could get “lost on the board” despite the Surface/Distance Plot and making just her second start at this level, finding class relief, and with OptixFIG in OFR. She also can be given an upgrade from the October 28^th race given the poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and making up ground (CLOSE) in a race dynamic that did not offer much change in running order from start to finish.

#5 KIMBERLY FRANCES is logical as the favorite off her current form and trip that cost her as the favorite back on November 11^th at the open $5k claiming class level. She could be flattered as show finisher, Queen’s Mission came back on November 20^th to win with a 74 OptixFIG. She will be ridden today by 10-lb bug-rider Rishawn Blanche with the significant weight allowance. #2 WEEKEND PASS could also be upgraded returning from the November 12^th common race back to this restricted $5k claiming level.

#4 FANCY EMPRESS could receive the “wise guy” attention in here going off shorter than the morning line given the connections, form over this course and distance. Her maiden win going back to March last year around two-turns on this main track was a front running score with a career top 74 OptixFIG.

Morning line favorite #1 SAMARITA is logical though she can be a sourpuss. She was caught acting up in the gate in September and October and throwing a fit in the paddock (PRERACE-) on October 30^th, things that are not shown in the running lines/standard past performances. 

#3 MAYSTART is a logical and solid value alternative with consistent OptixFIG in OFR for this race and will find significant class relief from her races here this season, those events all carrying a much higher OFR (race par/purse) than today. Her form fits this level and could be ignored by the public influenced by trainer stats than the horse in this case. 

Based on the Plot and #7 FIELD DAISEY could also be used as value/alternative here as well.

Martinez will use a similar HS Indy-to-Hawthorne pattern from October 9th coming back with #8 DELIGHTFUL BREEZE. She was well intended and ran a “winning” race with B OptixFIG and 84 OptixGRADE as the BOS to just get run down at the wire and set up the race FLOW for #6 PALAGO. Along with positive intent for Delightful Breeze today. She should hold a pace advantage with the edge above the Par Line and over rival #5 RAP STAR. 

#6 PALAGO lacks the pace advantage today compared to rivals #3 ORDAINED KISS and #4 LONG TALL WOMAN all three shown in Quad II. Surface/Distance could move up #7 ORNERY ANGEL in terms of trip and has OptixFIG that fit in OFR to compete on her best day.

A wide open affair to close out the card even with the “longshot” runners in the field: #6 TAP N TWINE not without a chance (OptixPLOT) to take this field gate-to-wire.  On the opposite end of the Plot, #8 MORNING LINE NEWS could move up with the proper change in class wheeling back in just a week from the November 18^th race day with the rough WEATHER conditions. #5 GOSHEN GIRL was given an EX – EXCUSE in her layoff return race two weeks ago with the legit stumble (TROUBLES+) at the start and raced WIDE in hand (NO_PUSH) after. 

More logical types: #7 BELLS OF JOY fits today’s race shape (OptixPLOT) with progressive form and OptixFIG coming back from the layoff this season. #3 FRIEND will also find considerable class relief returning to this circuit and should be key to move her forward (Quad II Square) in today’s’ event. The similar Plot/Shape position for likely favorite, #2 LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT.

Value is a little, as the kids say "sus" on #1 FROST WARRIOR with the class drop and surface switch where she requires a top effort and to transfer her current form (Standard Plot) to compete. Her prior dirt OptixFIG sit well below OFR and in line with #4 JAMAICAN TRAFFIC. Trip is key for #9 QUEEN EKATI (Quad IV Square) though has form and improving figures this season as she shows up in this spot for the third start back off the layoff.