Handicapper Tips & Picks

#8 IOYA AGAIN fits today’s race dynamic tracking as a Square in the center of the PLOT with Green Keywords going back to August at Canterbury Park. The Plot also finds an upgrade today for #1 REMEMBER THE MAINE, one that might require that advantage looking to return to winning ways for the first time since July of 2021. #4 PERFECT WAGER also lands in a similar Plot position, though given the connections and coming off a win at this level, should find public support and likely shorter than the morning line and could even be favored.

With today’s mile, the distance limitations are in play for #7 HANNITY (SHORTER?) especially with rival, #10 CAMMACK in the field as the two share a similar Plot shape/position. They will be joined by others in the group to play a role in the “Sun” Contention and higher-than-average 59 SpeedRate. 

#9 DELFT BLUE is an honest race horse that is tough to knock. The connections will return to this circuit off the HS Indy win last month and slight step up on class. #3 DRAMATIC KITTEN lacks an upgrade on the Plot, however, holds competitive OptixFIG in ORF/par over this turf course from earlier this year and has improving numbers coming back from the layoff on opening day.

#6 KRAMDEN is deserving of a mention here coming back from an EX – EXCUSE two weeks ago with TROUBLE+ into the first turn causing Bendezu to lose their iron and ultimately their chances at a race. The surface switch is less of a concern as Kramden has turf form, than class as this is a step up from his races this season.

Getting that win has been tough at times for #7 IAN GLASS. That said, he is tough to fault turning in honest, consistent efforts and should be in the right spot for that win returning to this circuit for Vanden Burg. He is shown as part of the Quad I “Fire” Contention though can stalk-and-pounce (EP RunStyle) and the class edge (above the Par Line) in this race paired with his finishing (Square) ability to hold an edge of that Quad I group. 

Standard Plot suggests, #8 LAND MARK DEAL might not be as far off the pace (Quad II Square) as it might appear with the change in distance returning for this sprint. Outside of trip his class, form, and speed stack up on par. Land Mark Deal should offer value over #6 RACE DRIVER with the two in a similar Plot position/shape.

#3 MALPAIS returns from a layoff and TROUBLE in this races this season where he could sit closer to the pace than his Quad IV position and not the true “closer” #9 STAR OF KODIAK is.

The Plot position for #1 C F V RED NOVA is as tough to ignore as the 536-day layoff returning here for Gonzalez and could create some compensation to balance out based on the morning line. It should also be noted they were entered and on the track to run in a turf sprint allowance here on October 30^th though was a late vet scratch, scratched at 29-1 nearing post time.

Current form and potential pace could upgrade, #6 MUD ISLAND in Quad I and as the lone “E” RunStyle horse in the field. They were favored at this level back on November 4^th and lacked finish after taking pace pressure, though was a Fast early (F O4S) half mile with the win and place finishers, Lord Dylan and Lapis Lazuli closed from off the pace. 

His former Hugh Robertson stablemate, #2 JOHNNY UP could improve in his second start off the layoff and conditioning from the WIDE trip three weeks ago. #5 BRIANS WAY scratched from that common race (trainer scratch and drew the rail) on November 4^th. He has shown speed figure progression this season at FanDuel and will be required to transition that form back to Hawthorne. The connections had him running above condition at the N3 level back on September 24^th and shifts back to the N2 condition here though still finds a class test as today’s race par is higher than that most recent event.

Both #4 VERKLIMT and #5 QUILTING PARTY won races under similar conditions and over this course and distance to make them logical players in this race. #2 WAR MUSIC also has some upside in terms of recency and will likely return that form stretching back out to a route distance here.

As the morning line favorite, #6 MAKEMEBELIEVE is capable with a top effort though will be racing off a 72-day layoff and showing limited works since the perfect, ideal trip to win on September 15^th at Canterbury. 

#3 MARIA’S GIFT also came up with a favorable flow aided trip against only two others on September 16^th at FanDuel. She shows an interesting scratch from November 9^th at HS Indy entered in a similar conditioned claiming race on the turf entered for trainer, Frank Martinez.

#1 TWO COOKIE RULE comes back to this N3 claiming level and with the change in distance. He carries improving for this race and even positive intent with the quick 6-day turnaround and rider change for this event.  

#6 KNIEVEL returns with a barn and rider change looking to IMPROVE off the November 11^th journey. Trip is key for this one as shown from the Plot as a Quad IV Square as well as from the races this season. #4 BETTER THINK TWICE will also require the right trip given some versatility with the changes on the Plot. That ideal trip is key for this individual with some distance limitations.

Regression was projected and expected for #2 MY BROTHER CAM finishing all out (GALLOP-) on October 14^th and wheeling back in two weeks with the rise in class. With that race under his belt and the extra 28-days since, they should have plenty of recovery time for event. Their trip could become a hurdle with #7 BOURBON DELIGHT returning in this spot and one that has legit early speed and has been his most effective when allowed a “LONE” lead. Both #3 ZARMAE and #5 ICECAP are not impossible in here, though longshots for the right reasons.

Longshot #5 LAVENDER EARL is tough to make a case for looking at the Plot in a lower percentage win position as a Quad IV Circle however he has just two sprints impacting his Plot position here, the debut race at Turfway last December and the higher level claiming sprint on September 25^th. His form cycle is positive coming into this race and returning to this level from a solid speed figure and similar “flow upgrade” from the October 8^th race. He has races and OptixFIG that stack up on the higher end of today’s race par along with the “dirtied” form for those that want to get creative and out of the comfort zone.  

A more logical route: #6 JACK VAN BERG could have a pace advantage in this event and returning to this condition where he recorded a B OptixGRADE as the BOS through a Very Fast (X_FLOW) early pace setting up the winner, Bravo Bravo to close late for the win and the two together at the wire. #8 TIME HEIST also returns from the November 6^th common race and has been consistent this season with the underneath finishes and B- OptixGRADES.

#2 BIG SPORT and #4 KIERKEGAARD return from the common race on November 4^th and three horse BLANKET finish at the wire. Both are upgraded here as Big Sport comes back today with a “flow upgrade” and Kierkegaard capable of falling into another favorable trip.

Butler has sent out a pair of winners this season in a limited sample and shows up with a pair in this race that look capable with #3 SHANGHAI POINT upgraded on Surface/Distance and #7 SOUPER FORTUNE putting his perfect 2-for-2 race record this season on the line with the step up in class.

#6 KHOZY’S KITTEN has some buried form impacting her Plot position and shape.  and should be sitting on a top effort returning to this circuit for Hernandez. She was a "flow upgrade" staying on as the BOS in a four horse duel with the race shape setting up for the winner, #8 INDAWIN. 

The “Fire” Contention plays towards the Run Style for #8 INDAWIN, though a Quad IV Square, “deep closer” with gate issues (SLOG) as the favorite (a change from the 11-1 October 29th race) can be a serious liability. 

Oscar Sanchez shows up with a pair in this race including #2 PRANCIPANTS one that was scratched from a similar OFR claiming race on November 20^th and could step forward off the WIDE trip two weeks ago and in this second start off the layoff. The pace with the “Fire” Contention and 34 SpeedRate could assist her trip and first run on stablemate #5 PRINCESS CONSUELA. She won under similar conditions back on October 16^th, though was flattered by the race FLOW and prevailing in the photo (BLANKET) finish for the win. 

In terms of the “Fire” Contention, #9 FOGGY KITTEN is upgraded as the lone Square in Quad I of that group. She shares a running line with #1 TWO MORE TIMES from the common race on September 20^th at Fan Duel. Two More Times can be upgraded on the Plot, however, has struggled transferring her form at top efforts to Hawthorne.