Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 CHI TOWN HEAT has the edge over the runners with experience given her posted figures and finding a change in class this afternoon. She will return with a barn change and freshening from the October 21^st Delaware Park event, a race that has held form with the horses running back from that race including one next out winner. 

First time starter, #5 HAPPY QUEST has a live look for Rosin with a steady local work tab and for a barn that is capable with these type of debuting runners. Centeno aboard is another sign of intent, a live rider for this barn. #3 HER TIME IS NOW will also debut here following a vet scratch under similar conditions for the October 29^th common race. It is encouraging she has worked twice since, returns to the level of intent from last month and Vanden Berg won with a debut juvenile maiden claiming runner last week.

Both #6 PRINCESS TONI and #7 MISS MIA find the required class relief from the Special Weight races today. Princess Toni will find a rider change and the blinkers off -- the equipment change could be a positive for her as she has not looked comfortable in blinkers going back to her debut.

The race shape (Plot) should flatter #6 DUST DANCER, the projected race favorite that should lack an excuse in that role. #3 HELA could take up a chasing role shown tracking as a Quad I Square. #1 MISTER CHARMING returns from a “winning” effort (B OptixGRADE) and tough beat at the level on November 20^th. The change in distance puts him off the pace (Quad IV) today though in form (lacking Red in the Past 3 Runlines) and has the strongest late kick (Large Square) in this field. 

#2 USA USA USA fits as a contender in this race off their form, OptixFIG this meet and today’s DROP in class. Trip will be crucial with their RunStyle (Quad IV) though the class and rider change could allow them to race closer to the pace today if required.

The pace does appear Contentious from Surface/Distance with #5 MISS HIGH N MIGHTY, #6 WILDWOOD DREAMER and #9 TENSE also taking up a similar Plot position with the pace honest as those runners sit above the ParLine. Rivelli first time starter, #7 MOM’S KINGDOM could also show speed on debut with Baird in the saddle. #4 JEMEZ FALLS will also debut here for Frank Kirby, a barn that has sent out live runners all meet and tough to ignore the outfit off that current trend.

#7 BEHAVIN MYSELF could return with a pace advantage as shown on OptixPLOT for today’s race shape. They have held their form and OptixFIG this season and exit the November 12^th race, a race that has held form including one next out winner. #1 BUXTERHOOTER also wheels right back from the November 12^th common race and recording a competitive effort on the day finishing alongside Behavin Myself. This is a tougher race that is deep and noted as it starts off the late $25k guarantee P4 sequence to give consideration to others:

#3 KRAMDEN could be the “forgotten” horse with the TROUBLE+ going back to the November 12^th common race and with the turf start last week sitting on top of his past performances to offer value in this race. Excusing those two recent races for logical reasons as shown in the Past 3 Runlines, he was on a progressive pattern with two back-to-back B- OptixGRADE efforts at this level in October that fit right back with today’s field and OFR. 

#4 GAGOOTS could also get lost on the board from his fourth place run, a trip that was compromised at the break (TROUBLE_S) and has upside at this level and from his form this year buried with the October 15^th effort, a stronger race (WIDE MOVE) than it may appear on paper recorded at a higher class condition. 

Longshot #8 DOM CAETANO also will receive some consideration here coming back for Matthews. He was upgraded going into the October 22^nd race making his second start off the layoff (PREP on October 7^th) though failed to get a fall and struggled on the day. Physically he looked off and the connections have provided 42-days to recover and with two return works and a rider change. Dom Caetano has a win back on May 7^th with a similar form reversal in his third start off the layoff and validated that run coming back on May 28^th with another win at this similar restricted claiming level. 

#2 WILD FOX takes a class drop to run here looking to improve off their finishing positions this season. The class change upgrades them in this field, though the NO_FINISH from the race two weeks ago along with the drop and rider change creates some reservations to weigh against the number on the board.

#4 GATE CREW is unproven on the main track and the bigger unknown with the surface switch for this race. His two dirt races going back to 2019-2020 recorded OptixFIG consistent with his turf figures at the time and with Gate Crew transferring his current turf form to this race he stacks right up for today’s par/OFR. 

The pace scenario could find contention with the two Becker runners #6 AHEADOFTHEGAME and #7 FORWARD CURVE drawn outside of #1 HIGH BROW here for Rivelli/Baird. Those runner setting an honest pace could assist the trip for #2 SPALDING STROLL shown on OptixPLOT tracking as a Square right off that Quad I first flight and looking for first run on #3 PINEDALE. Pinedale is proven at this condition as shown off his form in the Past 3 Runlines and with the November 12^th win. There are others in this field that have run “faster” than the sophomore Pinedale to this point and he might be required to step up to their level today.

Block will send out a logical pair in this race. #2 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD is the class of the field, though will have that tested here making her main track debut. Her stablemate, #4 BEYOND PROPER has the edge with the surface/distance experience and in her own right has current form this season coming into this event on the third start of the cycle. #8 GHAALEB THE GREAT fits today’s statebred Optional Claiming condition and with OptixFIG that stack up strongly against the others in this group. While Trail Ridge Road will be tested over the unfamiliar surface, Ghaaleb the Great finds her test back around two turns here for only the second time in this 30^th start.

#7 CHRISTMAS PRESENT was logical in the November 18^th common race and Baird might have been overconfident (TACTIC-) taking off the pace and allowing the race winner, Just Like Mike, an uncontested lead. The shorter distance and race shape was a concern for #3 ART HEIST on the win end that day and is upgraded under today’s conditions. 

#2 FAMA Y DINERO was given a “longshot” look back on November 18^th at this level where he had some trouble (SLOG, TROUBLE-S) coming out of the gate impacting his race that day.  His recorded OptixFIG over this course from his maiden win back in April and his $6250k N2 claiming win on May 1^st stack up on the higher side of today’s OFR.

#5 SHANGHAI SILVER and #10 DEORA STORE fit today’s race shape though lack an edge as they both will require improvement stepping up off their most recent race clearing the N2 condition. Longshot, #9 FINAL CALL is tougher to make a “winning” case for though as a Large Quad IV Square could run on late for those deeper underneath spots.

4-CHI TOWN HEAT drops again to make her local debut. She didn't show a lot in Delaware in her first two starts but she's likely to be meeting an easier group here. She figures to display better speed in her local debut with the addition of blinkers. Might lead throughout. 3-HER TIME IS NOW makes her debut. Some of her drills have been lackluster, including last, but her gate drill in her previous work got the bullet. Guessing she's ready. 7-MISS MIA drops into maiden claimers for the first time. Her first two races didn't impress but her recent drills show promise. Improvement is likely.

Hard to pick any in here with confidence but someone will win and I think it could be 1-SURE SHOT ANNIE. She’s dropping to her lowest level yet and she has had some decent races. Her last can be excused a bit, she was in far too tough and she hit the starting gate so she started much further back than usual. If she gets away cleanly at this level, she might finally graduate. 2-PRETTY IN PRADO, the morning-line favorite, is another that got off to a poor start in last, her first race at this level. She’s also likely to improve with a clean start. 7-BALIMOS finished second at this level in last but the rest of his races were awful. Was last just a one-off or did they figure out a way to get her to run better? We’ll see.

6-DUST DANCER should be tough. He just missed in his first start of the meet. Had a sharp drill since. He came from off the pace to score his lone win but he looks like the best of the speed in this race. Guessing he’ll try to wire them. 3-HELA finished a bit behind top choice in last. He was making his local debut and his first start against winners in that race. Has room to improve. 4-SKIP AWAY CARTER faces winners for the first time. Recent grad has steadily increasing speed figures. Could be ready for these.

7-MOM’S KINGDOM wins the pedigree war but no guarantee that she’ll win this. Her workouts have been pretty much on the slow side but runners from her barn are generally ready at first asking. Plus, the majority of her rivals have been trying to graduate for a long time. She gets the nod but not a strong one. 6-WILDWOOD DREAMER had some competitive efforts downstate but she was never really in contention in her first start here. However, this is an easier field than she faced in her local debut. She does look like the speediest member of this crew. Has to be caught. Runners from the Kirby barn often have to race into shape but given the weakness of this field, first timer 4-JEMEZ FALLS has to be considered. Her workouts have been rather slow but they have also been long and regular. She should have a solid foundation, just not sure she has any speed.

Going to go for a slight upset with 10-RIVER CACTUS. This barn had a lot of success with him in the past. They claimed him back two starts ago and he did show a lit in their first start back with him but they have had a little more time to work with him. We’ll see if it helped. 2-WILD FOX has been meeting tougher all year. He finished in the money in most of those races, eight of 11, but managed to win only once. But the drop in class has a good chance of getting him over the top. 1-BUXTERHOOTER has a win and a second over similar rivals in his last two trips. He can fly from far back and might swoop late to take it all.

1-HIGH BROW just missed in his career debut but has reeled off three straight wins since. He’s jumping in claiming price but certainly seems capable of handling the raise. He might be the quickest of these but he’s been just as adept when coming from off the pace. 7-FORWARD CURVE might be better on the lawn but he just scored a runaway victory in last in a race that was moved from turf to the main track. Like top choice, he owns good speed but can also rate. It will be interesting to see who goes for the lead and who hangs back. 3-PINEDALE will be coming on late. He beat a similar group in last but he’ll need a strong pace ahead of him to be able to repeat.

Tough race. Have to give almost every member of this field serious consideration. 1-CAT ATTACK might try to steal this on the front end. She does appear to hold a fair speed advantage over the rest of the field. The last time they stretched her out, she dueled with Katie M’Lady through very fast fractions in a turf stakes. She shouldn’t find that kind of pressure today. She never won on the main track but most of her rivals in here are turf horses also. 2-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD was the recipient of the speed duel between top pick and Katie in the aforementioned stakes race. She came along late to score a two-length victory. However, she never ran on dirt and her dirt drills haven’t been inspiring. 8-GHAALEB THE GREAT never even raced on turf. He was recently claimed by a sharp claiming trainer. Although most of his races have been sprints, he has been finishing with good energy. Might relish the extra distance of this race.

7-CHRISTMAS PRESENT has been trying to get through this condition for a while, at a variety of distances, and gets close but no cigar. He’s probably going to run well again but no guarantee. 10-DEORA STORE was dropped in class to enable him to score his second win. Moves up slightly but not that much. Can repeat. 5-SHANGHAI SILVER is another fresh off the victory. He’ll be meeting slightly tougher today but his form cycle suggests that he could just now be at the top of his game.

An intriguing race to kick off the Friday card as we shift to the earlier post time of 12:55 PM. Some familiar names in here but also some potential to find a bit of value. While the Rivelli entrant will take action, that one recently shifted barns and locales and may need a race over the track. Happy Quest may be worth the look as this one debuts for the Rosin barn.  She is well bred and gets Lasix for her first start for a barn that wins at a 20% clip first time out. She comes in with six consistent works. Let's see how she looks in the paddock and if she takes any early action at the windows.

Balimos could be the second half of what I'm hoping will be a Rosin-trained daily double.  Jock Centeno has ridden extremely well this meet and gave this one a nice race last time out. There is a little bit of early speed in here as a tracking trip could lead to a victory today.

Not a great bunch for this level but it is a race where the pace should be honest upfront early on. I like the turn back in distance off what was a good effort out of Mister Charming last time out. His speed figures put him right in the mix with these and he should be picking off horses in the lane. A second start start with Colon in the saddle is a plus as well.

I may be completely wrong but I fully expecting either Aheadofthegame or Forward Curve to scratch out of here as both come from the Becker barn and have very similar running styles. High Brow looks to be very tough in this race as he came off a six month rest into his last and ran a big race on the return. He does step up in class today but if he can settle like he did last out there's no reason to think he can't repeat that performance.

Initially it appears like this is a no brainer that Block horses will run 1-2 and they may still but Ghaaleb the Great is very much worth a look. This is a horse that is bred to run all day for a barn that does a great job off the claim. Would have to think this one is very much in the mix.

This is a very tough race to close out the Friday card and provides some price opportunities as well. I really like how Tavares has been riding, especially the last two weeks as Deora Store steps up off a nice win last time out. Would have to think the added distance will only help as there appears to be enough pace to chase in this spot as well.

RACE 5: This is a competitive race to start the sequence and a spread will be used with full race deeper dive analysis above. Prime/value #4 GAGOOTS with #8 DOM CAETANO as a separator. *The “Emily’s Analysis” highlights the other runners used in this P4 Sequence.  

RACE 6: #4 GATE CREW has the class edge, though with the surface switch coverage with others in this leg can be used.

RACE 7: Leg 3 is similar to Leg 2 with #2 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD as the key on edge with back up options used given the nature of this sequence.

RACE 8: With the depth of this sequence some decisions will be made to close out and utilize a combination of the logical #3 ART HEIST and #7 CHRISTMAS PRESENT along with longshot #2 FAMA Y DINERO.  

Based on the opinion above some suggestions based on a $50 budget could look (not limited to) as followed:

4/2,4,6,7/2,4,8/3,7 

1,3,4,7,8/2,4,6,7/2/2,3,7 

8/4/2,4,8/2,3,7 

Kicking off the late pick 4 I don't want to overthink things too much where you shouldn't have to. Wild Fox is far and beyond the best horse in this field. He has faced much tougher company all year long with a good amount of success. He picks up one of the riders who has been hot of late and has run a 70+ Beyer in six of his last eight starts. Unless he reverts to the start four races back he should handle this field with ease.

Much like race five, don't overthink this race too much. High Brow was a claim back for Rivelli, something that often happens for Carolyn Wilson bred runners when they are claimed away. This one had a lengthy layoff but was protected from being claimed in his first start back. He steps up off that nice victory and gets Baird in the saddle, a rider who is starting to be more selective with the mounts he accepts. The only scary thing is Becker entered two in here. Often times he will scratch one of the two, especially if they have similar running styles, and the other horse runs a big race.

There's an opportunity to spread in here and possibly get a price. Both Block entrants should take their fair share of action as each comes off recent stakes starts.  Summer Day is worth tossing in as she made a bold move in the turn on the dirt in her last before giving way in the lane to Beyond Proper. The one who could get overlooked a bit is Ghaaleb the Great as she stretches out off the claim for Broberg. This barn has been exceptional with this type of move all meet long and wins at over a 20% rate off the claim and also while stretching horses out. Ghaaleb the Great is bred to run all day long but has spent the vast majority of her career sprinting. 7/11 on the board in Hawthorne starts isn't shabby either.

Because I didn't have to spread in the first half of the sequence it gives me the ability to hit the ALL button in the last leg without the ticket being too expensive.  From this field of ten, eight have victories in their career at Hawthorne. Surprisingly, the likely favorite in the race, Christmas Present, is one of the two who have not won over the track. Deora Store was my top selection as she raced well in her last and Tavares has been excellent the last two weeks. If you make it this far, keep your fingers crossed that a price comes in.

$.50 Late Pick 4 Ticket = $20

Race 5 - 2

Race 6 - 1

Race 7 - 2,3,4,8

Race 8 - ALL

T 5 Mystic 3 Charmbo Prince 3 So Not Cool

P 7 Miss Maycee 6 Some Cameo 8 Mystic Wild Rose

P 3 Western Wish 5 Carsons Guoda 1 Mc Kella

T 1 Beyond The Sea 6 Girl Scout Cookie 7 Baby Bonita

P 10 Snow Shark 1 Settn A Precedent 5 Karma Seelster

T 5 Maple Leaf Bound 3 Gala Halo 4 Spun From Magic

P 9 Bad Rossa 8 Twin B Sunkissed 1 La Petite Grise

P 1 Trafalgar 6 Peggy J 7 Come Roll With Me

P 5 Voelz Delight 2 Intothemysticmoon 4 Dabarndawgswatchin

P 1 Barrett Hanover 6 Whammer Jammer 4 William Hanover