Handicapper Tips & Picks

The four stakes races on Saturday are loaded with talent though not many strong wagering opportunities as the favorites in the juvenile stakes look logical. The Cigar Mile (G1): Zandon fits as the favorite (if O Besos runs he could offer exacta value with Zandon) with Mind Control looking as the alternative and not offering value in that second choice role. The Go For Wand (G3) could present the best betting race of the sequence. #3 BATTLE BLING is logical as the favorite and capable in that role though overall does not hold any strong edge. #5 SHARAPOVA has stakes quality to her and seems intent to run in this race at this time of the calendar year in a one-turn mile, something that is not provided to her out in California. #2 EXOTIC WEST has some stakes form and capable on her best day and when she can keep a rider on her back. She recorded a solid effort in the G3 Stakes back in May at Pimlico and has form here at Aqueduct over today's course and distance along with Davis in the saddle. 

Mandella will send out a pair in this race including morning line favorite, Lane Way. While Lane Way is capable in this race, he seems to prefer more ground than today's 5f distance. His stablemate #10 SUMTER has buried sprint form and form with Prat aboard. They have been training well into this race and could offer value and the right run style for today's course/distance. The trip could be a test for both Whatmakessammyrun and Coulthard with a potential tactical pace edge sitting with #7 TURN ON THE JETS. 

This is a competitive race with no real standout or value on morning line favorite, #11 LIGURIA taking on that role primarily for the connections. #1 PALOTTA SISTERS is an improving type and carries tactical speed that could present an advantage for this race shape and course where saving ground and the inside lanes are often favorable. #12 RAGTIME ROSE recorded strong figures in both starts and looks to have been pointed to this race making her route/stakes debut off the sprint foundation and steady works off the 42-day freshening. #9 THEBESTISYETTOBE will lose Prat to Liguria for this race though has the benefit of local experience and stakes experience to build off of. 

#3 CELESTIAL CITY has the surface/distance edge of the shippers coming in to make their first start on this circuit. That is noted with #9 Wit listed as the morning line favorite and as far as speed figures has recorded some of the higher consistent figures in this field. He will be tested with distance and class stepping up on both fronts.

As far as the local horses many will return from the Let it Ride stakes including the race winner Handy Dandy. The finish was a "blanket" at the wire and overall not much between many returning here. That includes #11 CLUTCH HITTER the horse to take from that race as he had adversity from the ride (TACTIC-) creating TRAFFIC, TROUBLE and racing against the race flow (X_FLOW) still gaining in the group at the wire. 

Hawthorne Derby winner, #10 SPEAKING SCOUT has been given a 35-day freshening following his place finish in the Twilight Derby (G2) and seemed short that day and off the Hawthorne stakes win. He has not shown much improvement throughout his career and others seem to have taken a step forward including his stablemate, #2 SCRIPT, with racing. 

#8 WAR AT SEA was forced to scratch (vet) from the Twilight Derby (G2) and will return from another three month layoff today. That timing is not ideal though he can be upgraded from his Del Mar Derby (G2) trip and show finish lacking ROOM at a crucial time in the running. 

#5 VALIENTLY DISCREET was very fractious in the GATE and off slow (SLOG) when he debuted two weeks ago in a Special Weight race. They will wheel right back for this spot and with the experience under their belt, they could be a better gate actor and a clean break could show more tactical speed. The pace as it sits on Surface/Distance projects to be Contentious (Fire) with five of the eight runners sharing a similar position in Quad I; and that does not take into account first time starter, #1 TEA WITH LEMON. 

#4 READY MADE could also present some upside today as he makes his first start at the maiden claiming level, second start off the layoff and picks up a key rider change. Those factors could create upside that is not shown on the Plot, whereas #7 ROCKET MAN ATTACK and #8 ANUNKA present favorably on the Plot, though doing so as proven runners with experience at today’s MCL level.

Many in this field will be racing above today’s non-winners of two this year condition. #6 RANK AND FILE fits the condition, checks the boxes as a contender in this race and has been knocking on the door this meet for the win. 

#1 SUPERSTAR DIVA fits at the level and presents upside with today’s race shape as a Quad I Square. #2 PRANCIPANTS wheels back in a week with a positive rider change given the TACTIC- in the November 26^th race costing her a better chance to compete on the day. 

Current form and OptixFIG fit with #4 APRIL’S GEM however the biggest hurdle being the surface switch returning to the dirt where her main track OptixFIG sit below her turf numbers and on the lower end of OFR (par) even with a top effort.

#5 MOMENT TO SHINE comes back for this second start off a BTL debut at Churchill Downs a little more than two weeks ago. They were shuffled in traffic after breaking a step slow and would not be surprised for Baird aboard to show more early speed today. Their debut effort stands over above and beyond the other fillies in this field with racing experience and stand as the horse to beat. 

#6 AWESOME SUNDAY showed some speed working 10.1 at the sale back in June and shows up to make her belated debut. She comes into this race with a series of local works and seems to have held her speed based on the published worktab. #10 THEMISCHIEVOUSONE will make her debut here noting she was scratched from a Special Weight race here back on October 15^th, a race carded for a mile on the turf. She has trained forwardly since as well as work going back to earlier this summer. #1 YAMILE’S also showed some speed moving on her own through a 10.1 move back in the March sale. She has not been as consistent with the works noting longer gaps in the published worktab.

Further scratches to note: #2 LUTION was a vet scratch after getting loose before the race (statebred Special Weight) on October 14^th as the longest shot on the board at 31-1. #8 TU ROYAL and #3 AIR GERRI were also a late scratches back on November 12^th in a Special Weight turf sprint.

#1 JOLIE RULER is logical in the role of the favorite based on her current form and figures this season. She projects to hold her form coming back off the win and first off the claim today. The pace scenario could create and advantage for her former stablemate, #9 COOKIN ROSES shown clear in Quad I above the Par Line. In addition to Jolie Ruler, trainer Reavis will also show up first off the claim with #5 BEIRUT BEAUTY one that peaked in her form cycle over the summer and off the win in September at Belterra Park. She has been entered twice at this condition this meet and suggests intent with the placement to run today.

An excuse could be given to #2 HER GOLD MINE on November 20^th as she was unprepared (GATE) at the start and taken out of her RunStyle. She projects to be more forwardly placed today getting back to her regular way of going as well as the addition of blinkers suggesting further intent.

#5 AGAVE KID projected to run as one of the pacesetters on November 18^th, however that was cut short taking contact at the start, the outside post and the Very Fast early pace that developed in the race shape. Despite the running line and finishing position, Agave Kid showed run in spots as shown in the OptixNOTE especially late with the CLOSE and doing it on their own (NO_PUSH) and projects to IMPROVE off that effort. In addition, he has form at this condition going back to October 1^st with the B- OptixGRADE with the fourth place finish, a blanket for the minors behind the pacesetting winner. 

At this type of level, subtle changes can make all the difference. The Plot position change is in play here for #9 APPLICANT, a major shift as a Quad I/III Square, a favorable position overall and for this particular horse going back through his past performances.

#8 HIGH HERO follows Agave Kid from the November 18^th common race where he also had trouble early (TROUBLE_S) and showed some run (MOVE) at times under rough, cold weather conditions with the races run under the lights. #7 DEVIL’S RULE follows that pattern with a rider change to show intent with Ulloa jumping back aboard as these two together with minor success and subtle trips this year.  

#10 RICHIESGOTSWAGGER also put in a CLOSE on November 18^th, though that trip checks out with his typical RunStyle and is likely to appear more “obvious” with the third place finish and logical off his form and OptixFIG.

For many in this field, the Illinois Debutant Stakes will be a rematch from the Showtime Debutante back on November 12^th. The winner of the race, #9 MOM’S TOWN looked the winner most of the race with Loveberry, her rider that day just waiting for the right time (TACTIC+) to make their move. The 7-1 overlay odds (and likely to lack value today) was in part to #4 CAT ROYALE over bet as the default favorite. While she appeared very live, she was still in a tougher spot making her debut in stakes company. She should benefit from that initial experience and showed she belongs at this level with the overall effort and the connections showing confidence returning to stakes company for validation. #3 JOYZILLA is not to be ignored from that race with the B OptixGRADE and overall progressive form keeps her in the mix today. 

Quality maiden runner #6 MISS RIVER RAT catches the eye with the confident move by the connections to show up here in this stakes race off a BTL debut back on November 12^th. There could have been some confidence in her abilities overall placing her in an open company Special Weight race on debut. She should move forward off the first start and hold her form with the move to the main track and with today’s added ground, the extended sprint distance.

The Contention (higher) today changes for #6 JUST RIGHT MIKE wheeling back from the LONE trip win on November 18^th with presence of others surrounding him in Quad I, sharing the EP RunStyle and the honest 28 SpeedRate. The race shape should set up #3 IMPERIAL MOMENT tracking that first flight from Quad I/II and showing second call tactical speed represented by his position today above the ParLine. 

Should Imperial Moment falter in that role, #5 MOVE ON OVER with his buried form; and #10 IRISH TUFF with his OptixFIG from the Past 3 Runlines stacking up for today’s N4 conditions and OFR can take advantage. Those two should have the edge this evening over Circle #1 HATCHET CREEK in a similar position on the Plot.

Certainly not in love with 5-VALIANTLY DISCREET but she did have an excuse in his lone start and he’s dropping to an easier level while most of his rivals ran out of excuses. 7-ROCKET MAN ATTACK looks like the best of the speed. Would like him better at five furlongs but think he’ll probably run out of gas again today’s six-furlong distance. 2-INSIDE THE CIRCLE faced better in the majority of his races. He didn’t show a thing the last time he dropped to this level but this field appears easier than that one.

6-RANK AND FILE hasn’t won in 12 local starts but she did finish second in her last two. Got claimed from last. Could break through in her first start for her new barn. 4-APRIL’S GEM faces what is probably her easiest field ever. However, virtually all her success came on turf. Even her dirt drills have been slow. Have to consider because of the drop but…1-SUPERSTAR DIVA finished a bit behind top choice in last but she was coming off a bit of a layoff to make that start. Could show more with a recent race under her belt.

Not sure who will be riding 5-MOMENT TO SHINE today, Baird is apparently done riding here for the meet, but this filly finished third in her debut, taking on a tough field at Churchill. Comes back quickly, it has only been a little over two weeks since her race, but have to figure that race didn’t take much out of her and she probably benefitted from the trip. 6-AWESOME SUNDAY has been training well for her career debut. She races for a barn that does well with first timer. Could give top choice a run for the money. 7-MIDNIGHT SOCIETY was claimed from last and moves up in class but she did show some speed in her debut, she gets a good speed rider in her irons, and this track was extremely speed favoring on Friday.

Trainer Mike Reavis has a couple runners in this race that he claimed from their last and they appear to be the top two contenders in here. 1-JOLIE RULER seems a slight bit better than her stablemate Beirut Beauty. She did beat a similar field, going away, in her most recent start. That was the first time in quite a while that she had raced at such a low level. Seems likely to win right back. 5-BEIRUIT BEAUTY didn’t show a thing in her local debut but she had won her previous two starts leading up to that last race. Her stablemate is a closer and this filly does her best on the front end. 9-COOKIN ROSES gets the lead in almost every race but she has managed to hang on for the win only three times in her 42-race career. Can finish in the money but would only use her under in vertical gimmicks since she does often share.

Would like 6-PRINCE OF MAYHEM better at five and a half or six furlongs but he does appear to be the only real speed in the race and the track, for the most part, has been favoring early speed. 10-RICHIESGOTSWAGGER won a $25k claimer at Churchill back in May but he hasn’t shown much since; including a couple races at this level. But, he did recover in last after getting off to a poor start and came on late to finish third. Maybe he’s regaining his mojo. Guess we’ll see. 9-APPLICANT drops. He showed little versus better in last but did finish third in his previous start in a race similar to this.

I think 4-CAT ROYALE will make amends. She was favored in her debut, the Showtime Deb Stakes, and raced well under pressure. She fought for the lead early but finally ran out of gas late and faded to third. But that tightener put the edge on. She’ll most likely have to fight for the lead again but this time she’ll be better prepared. 9-MOM’S TOWN took advantage of the heated pace in last to score the come-from-behind win in the Showtime Deb. She was helped along by one of her stablemates fight Cat Royale for the lead. Plus, her seasoning, she was making her sixth start, also helped. But, the pace of this race is likely to set up the same way. Wouldn’t be at all surprised if she emerged victorious. 3-JOYZELLA can’t be overlooked. She finished second in the Showtime Deb and might have been moving the fastest of all at the finish. This race is a sixteenth farther and she might be one of those that will benefit from the extra distance. 6-MISS RIVER RAT is another that might not get much attention but she ran well in her debut in a race that was too short for her. That race was on turf and this barn often uses turf races for extra conditioning. 

Hard to believe that the Ritter/Becker team will run two horses with such a similar running style against each other. But, if only one does compete, would think it will be 1-W W COOKIE MONSTER. He has been a monster for sure. Winner of last three has scored in six of 11 over the last two years and 11 of 22 in his career. He loves this track and has been great at the distance, with a pair of wins and a second from his three starts at six and a half. Will be tough to beat. 2-RICHIESGOTGAME has had only two sprints in his career and won them both, including the Hawthorne Futurity at this distance in 2020. He’s turning back in distance for this. Should face a blistering pace ahead of him even if one of the Becker runners scratches. Can fly late to pass them all. 5-LOCAMOTOR could possibly add to the pace but think it’s his ability to come from off the pace that makes him a contender in this spot

5-MOVE ON OVER drops in both claiming price and conditions. Although he hasn’t shown much since winning his first start of the meet, he’s certainly eligible to improve in this spot. Guessing 10-IRISH TUFF makes a run at them late. He’s been in great form lately with a win and four seconds in his last five races. 3-IMPERIAL MOMENT showed little in his first start here but he finished third in his next start and second in last. Not sure who rides him today, Baird took off, but he still figures with this group. 6-JUST RIGHT MIKE and 7-WESTA WAVERLY both scored their third victories in last. They could wind up in a speed duel but one or the other might just fly to the lead and take off.

Have to think Moment to Shine is going to take a lot of action in here for a top barn and should be a solid threat. Moment to Shine is the one who debuts and has been working well leading into this race. She gets Lasix for this spot and I like seeing multiple gate works leading into the race.

The distance could make the difference in here as there's not a ton of pace in the race. Speed should be holding but I'm not sure if Cookin Roses can get the three quarters. Would have to think Jolie Ruler gets a perfect tracking trip and is the first to take over when Cookin Roses comes back to the field. Princess Consuela is an interesting longshot as I think the rider change to the 10 lbs. bug is a positive off an effort where she ran on late in her last.

Richiesgotswagger is one I was on last time out and all hope for the victory was lost at the break. Hopefully the outside draw is actually a benefit here as he should be able to get away cleanly and take advantage of the long run down the backstretch. If he can sit 3rd or 4th heading into the turn he should be able to wear down the leaders in the lane.

An interesting race as many of these have faced off in the Showtime Deb last out. The post isn't great but Mom's Town should get a good tracking trip as she looks to repeat her winning performance from last out. The question is how much does Cat Royale improve in her second career start?

Another spot where Becker has two entered but not sure if both will run. Both of the W W horses are speedy types but Cookie Monster should be faster to the lead. If they both stay in, Richiesgotgame may actually be the horse who gets the right setup ahead of him. But if only one Becker stays in then it will be very tough.

This distance suits as does the fact that Baird sticks in the saddle with this one today. Imperial Moment has enough speed to rate close early but doesn't have to be committed to the lead to win. Let's see if we can catch a little bit of a price in here.