Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 KEEN RESPONSE fits logically as the favorite and the horse to beat based on his races this season. The class drop running at this $7500 level moved him up and coming back off a “winning” B OptixGRADE effort behind first run winner, Option, on November 18^th.

#3 MORANT returns to make his second start at this maiden claiming level, surface, and distance off the layoff. He could present upside exiting the TRAFFIC trip run under less than ideal WEATHER conditions 16-days ago. #4 UNCLE DICK shows a similar Plot position and progressive form coming into this race as his third start of the cycle stretching back out to a route distance.

#5 BON DEUX also returns from that common race back on November 18^th, as well as the event last week and has been holding his form and OptixFIG though all around efforts stacking up just average for the level with the C/C+ OptixGRADES. Longtime maiden, #2 KING ZION exiting the common races this season will look to use the apprentice weight allowance and early speed to a pace advantage. Even with that potential edge, he has a long history of losing ground late going back to his debut without a change since.

#1 HOT DAME comes back off an EX – EXCUSE losing her race at the start on November 23^rd at HS Indy. She fits today’s race shape with versatility and finishing ability as shown on OptixPLOT. 

#6 ON A TOUR fits off her races this season, though is starting to show some decline in her form and figures since the October 14^th win to consider as she projects to be favored here. #4 WAY TOO SMARTE could have been using the higher Optional claiming events returning off the layoff for fitness. She will find a change in class and distance and should be sitting on a top effort today.

#6 IT’S GREEK TO ME projected to need a race returning from a layoff and making her first start on this circuit back on November 18^th. She has that race under her belt and turning in an honest effort that cold night (WEATHER) could step forward and showing some positive intent picking up Baird. #5 SUMMER BELLE can step up on her races this season finding class relief as the connections make the change to run her first time in for the claiming tag.

The live barn (Kirby) on #4 MUD HUT keeps her on the radar returning today off the 176-day layoff and picking up first time Lasix. They had run at this condition last December and coming back from the layoff in May. She had some upside off those races being a lightly raced four-year-old though does require a new top and race of her career to win today. Mud Hut in the race along with #7 SWEET FRAULEIN with some hidden early speed could also make things tougher up front for projected pacesetter, #3 HALLIE’S RAINBOW.

#6 SILVERA should be in the right spot to compete finding class relief off her races here this season. Her form stacks up at this level and had upside off the WIDE, TROUBLE trip on November 13^th. She will make the surface switch back to the main track, though has number that fit for this level to transfer her current form. That change could be a hurdle for #2 DAIGLE one that has not been as strong on the main track compared to her numbers on the turf and should find early pace Contention as shown on OptixPLOT. 

The “Fire” Contention and higher 56 SpeedRate should also assist #3 WEEKEND PASS sitting as a Large Quad IV Square. Tavares waited too long (TACTIC-) to ask for her run (CLOSE) making up ground just 9-days ago behind race winner, #7 KIMBERLY FRANCES. She fits right back off her current form and trip/Plot with a top effort again required with the noted class rise also in play.

#1 DANVILLE wheels back first off the claim and back to the level from the November 18^th race. He turned in a competitive race in that fourth place finish, the B- OptixGRADE, making a WIDE MOVE under cold, windy and snow WEATHER conditions. 

#2 DYNABLUE fits off his current form (Standard) in today’s race shape and finding a subtle change in class. He has form and tactical speed from prior starts over this main track and likely to be more assertive with the trip under Santiago today. The trip and change in distance could also upgrade #7 ANDREW THE GIANT as he finds much needed class relief exiting the allowance races as well as the added (STRETCH) ground. 

The connections wheel right back once again with #5 LAVENDER EARL, one that holds some form this season and competitive races from early this print that stack up on par. The timing for this race and return to the route distance suggest positive intent and the time, if any to put forward a competitive race. 

#8 COMFORT ME NOW could hold a pace advantage and show early speed stretching back out to a route distance and back on the dirt. He was entered at this level in the October 28^th common race, though was a scratch that day and returns here with just the one published work. 

#9 ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS has the OptixNOTES Projection to IMPROVE from the November 20^th effort and trip, though finds himself in a tougher spot this afternoon and while that upside is projected, the placement presents another hurdle all together. Value could land short on his fellow Quad IV rivals #3 COWBOYS DREAM and #4 IRISH DECLARATION on the win end in this race shape.

#3 GAME BOY BENNY does not “standout” on the Plot with his October 1^st and November 12^th races impacting his position and shape. Splitting those two starts is a very solid place finish as the BOS/Best of the Speed at this condition and higher OFR back on October 23^rd. That race fits at this level and for his current form cycle as Baird jumps back aboard.  The early pace might not be as “fast” with the 29 SpeedRate though the Contention, especially from Standard should set up a closing, off the pace run for #6 BEEALEA with the strong late (Large Square) kick from Quad IV.

The race shape is “chaotic” with the “Red” PlotFit with many in this field stretching out from their usual placement in sprint races. The return to a route distance also upgrades #5 MADELYNS HEAT keying off the two starts back in October with improving and competitive form shown in the Past 3 Runlines. The race shape should still find a scenario for the projected race favorite, #7 FUTURE VISION to work out the right trip forwardly place from Quad I. 

Longshot runners to consider: #6 RIP IT RYAN has buried form that jumps out when looking at the Plot and should fly under the radar from the appearance “on paper” to get dismissed by the public. #9 DARE GOES DA DEVIL also comes into this race with buried form this season. The connections have wanted to STRETCH out in distance going back to October 16^th when taken out of his RunStyle and then followed up with TROUBLE on November 20^th.

6-KEEN RESPONSE seems most likely. She finished second in both of her local dirt races. Got claimed from last. Could have even more success for his new barn. 5-BON DEUX finished third in his last two, most recently to higher priced claimers. Didn’t finish close to top pick they last time they met but he could have better luck today. 3-MORANT split the field in last but it was his first start off the layoff and his first start around two turns. Should be better prepared for this race. Might be able to surprise.

Going to give 1-ASKEW the nod because I’m hoping her rider won’t send her to the lead and take on other tiring speed. I suppose it’s possible that she can outlast the rest of the speed but she was just much more effective in the past when she came from out of it. 6-SHE’S EXTREMELY HOT was favored in last after winning her debut but had to settle for second place. She’ll probably be favored again, maybe with good reason, but if you look at her past performances, she always seems to run out of gas late in her routes, even when she used to come from out of it. However, it would be no big surprise to see her hang on. 3-SENORITA AURORA could go for the lead. She has no real sprint speed but with the stretch out, she could find herself in front.

6-ON A TOUR is in the midst of a great year. She finished in the money in 13 of her 16 races, winning four time, including her first two races after getting claimed by this barn. Only managed a fourth-place finish when moved back to turf for last but she’s meeting easier and dropping in class for this. Can start another win streak right here. 4-WAY TOO SMARTE drops in class and stretches out. Her recent form leaves a lot to be desired. Think she’ll still run late despite the stretch in distance. Could finish fastest of all. 5-SHE’S A BIG STAR could be the best of the speed but she usually doesn’t fire. However, if she does, she could enjoy the lead from start to finish.

3-HALLIE’S RAINBOW could hold the edge. She’s not the only speed in the race but with the drop in claiming price she could hold a slight class edge. 6-IT’S GREEK TO ME finished third in her local debut. He had shipped in from California where she was competing in 1000-yard races, which were slightly over a half mile. Like that she was making up ground when last race finished. Should be better prepared for this. 5-SUMMER BELLE drops into claimers for the first time. She’s been facing some pretty salty Illinois breds. Might have better luck here.

8-AUNT STELLA says try to catch me. Fast filly drops and stretches out. The rest of the speed in this race is route speed. This young lady should be able to open a clear lead quickly. Might be able to hang on. 7-KIMBERLY FRANCES tries to go back to back. She provided her apprentice rider with the first race of his career when they just won at this level. Could give that rider his second win today. 5-WATCHIN THE WHEELS is another coming off a win. In fact, he beat Kimberly Frances easily in that spot and that race turned out to be a “key” race. But she hadn’t shown that kind of run prior and not sure she’ll be able to again.

9-ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS finished well behind Danville the last time they met, but that rival had gotten an unchallenged lead in that race. That doesn’t seem likely to happen again. This late runner might be able to surprise today. 1-DANVILLE was claimed from his last two starts. He won two back, beating top choice in that spot, but he’s likely to face far more front-end pressure today. 4-IRISH DECLARATION did finish in the money in four of his last five starts. He did finish second in his lone local appearance. Might better that today.

5-SWISHAWISH takes on winners for the first time while moving from Illinois breds to open company but loved his last race and the way he finished. He's facing allowance foes today but many in here were running in low-level claimers not long ago. Think he has a lot of upside. 4-FOLLOW THE SIGNS could turn out to be the best of the speed. He finished slightly behind another runner in this field in last after dueling for the lead but the winner of that race went on to win another and the shorter distance of this race could be just what the doctor ordered. 3-GAME BOY BENNY had no business in a $100k stakes race at Churchill in last but he should be a major player now that he's back at the right level. He owns good speed and should be tracking right behind the early leaders. Can edge by late.

7-FUTURE VISION is certainly no lock but he's just in somewhat better form than the rest. 5-MADELYN'S HEAT beat only one rival in last, his first for this barn, but he was turned back in distance for that race. Starting from the 11 didn't help. Stretches back out to a better distance today. Could wake back up. 8-CAPTAIN CARNEGIE appears to have a speed advantage. Could get away unchallenged and never look back.

New connections in charge of Keen Response now and I like that he isn't being asked for more off the claim as he stays at the same level. He had no business losing last time out but was given just a horrible trip. He got away slowly and was shuffled well back and then was hung wide the entire way. He still only missed by a neck. No reason he shouldn't win here.

Not a whole lot of value in here but She's Xtremely Hot looks to be the most consistent and has enough tactical speed to contend the entire way. She's back at the same level once again and will likely be a very short priced favorite.

A short field but still a decent amount of pace in this race as well. Tavares has been the hot hand of late and is aboard On a Tour once again, a filly that has won her last two on the dirt.  She is 8/9 on the board at Hawthorne and gets a perfect spot being a starter eligible horse.

Didn't think it was a bad effort by any means from It's Greek to Me last time out as she made her first start at Hawthorne. She tracked the leaders in that race and ran on late through the lane. There is some pace to the inside here and Baird won't be riding but have to think she improves in her second over the track.

Not a whole lot of pace in this race which should lead to Daigle being able to make the top rather easily. Her best races have come on the grass but she does have a main track victory. There are some snappy dirt works this past summer in Minnesota and this is a much easier level that she faces today.

Curious to see what the pace scenario is here as there really isn't any horse committed to the front. There's a couple with potential to go so we will have to see if the pace is honest. Irish Declaration would benefit from some pace to chase but may be saved by the distance in here. The 1 1/16 gives him enough real estate to close in the lane as if he can get back to his start two races back, he should be right there at the wire.

Here's hoping for a better trip than last time for Beealea as he makes his fourth start of the meet. In his last he got away very slowly and was last early. He angled to the center of the lane to close but ran on too late. There's some more pace to chase in here as any type of ground saving trip will be beneficial.

Not a great bunch to close out the card while should give everyone in this race a chance. Stun Gun has had a tendency to get away slowly in sprints and just get left with too much to do late. On the stretch in distance there could be more potential to get into the race early and run on late. A break in weight in the saddle will be beneficial as well.