Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 GHAALEB’S HONOR returns to the company of fillies and mares from the November 6^th event and a softer race par. She stacks up off her form this season and exiting the common races with others in this group from September 30 and October 15^th. Becker will also send out #1 WILDWOOD POSSE, a filly that has struggled to make the races this season with a vet scratch from a $25k N2L claiming race on November 18^th – a race #3 BEG BORROW N STEAL returns from. 

Looking at the dynamic (OptixPLOT) the pace should be contentious (Sun) combined with the higher SpeedRate along with four of the six runners sharing the E or EP RunStyle. The race shape in this case sets up for the two PC RunStyle horses; #4 BIG BLUE and #6 C F V RED NOVA. In addition to race shape, both runners fit with OptixFIG in today’s OFR and with current form based on the races (OptixGRADE/NOTES) this season. 

The race shape could set up similar to Race 2 with a “Fire” Contention and 50 SpeedRate. The pacesetters, which includes morning line favorite, #1 KHOZIE’S GHOST all take up a role in Quad I and lacking finish (or an edge in the case of Khozie’s Ghost at a short price) as Circles. 

#6 OWEN’S PLEASURE comes up as the more “logical” off her current form this season at today’s claiming level returning from the B OptixGRADE on November 11^th. She does have some gate issues (SLOG) that is worth noting and to be expected. #2 MARY’S LAST SONG returns with class relief for this race and off the WIDE trip with weaker handling (TACTIC-) just 12-days ago and can move forward to compete off her recent races since the claim for Matthews. #4 ROCK THE BIRDHOUSE is lighter on class and speed figures with the race shape required to upgrade her today. She gives up recency returning from the 70-day layoff, though could overall benefit from the freshening and back to a sprint distance from the September 30^th route race.

Experience could be the edge for #4 SWISS GUARD and #5 SHARP AZ NAILS coming into this race off their form this season. That edge is necessary as individuals they have left something to be desired on the track and should be factored with the shorter price expected.

Second time starter, #7 SLAVA UKRAINI could present upside (and value) from their November 11^th debut. He seems to have come out of the race well working another half mile on November 29^th for Zawitz. They will also return with first time Lasix and a rider change as Tavares will not be riding on today’s program.

The limited worktab is in play for #6 SOVIET STANDARD at the same time intent could be in play with the local works and with Diego Sanchez aboard. That similar intent for #8 STAR NATION with the steady series of local works coming into this race. Robertson could get attention here with first time starter, #3 LAST WISH, one that was intended for Canterbury and with the setbacks debuts here by default - to weight against the projected shorter odds.

#5 JAMICAN TRAFFIC and #6 TAP N TWINE could offer value in this race with buried form that could fit today’s race shape. Both are shown on OptixPLOT in Quad I with the Surface/Distance upgrade to Squares. They could have that edge and price compensation over #1 HEY MA, another that should be expected to show early speed from the rail to have her best chance in today’s race shape. 

Meraz will send out a pair in this race and could find the longer odds on #8 SHINY SHOES making her local debut. Number wise she is softer than others though not far off with some upside as a lightly raced type. She moved forward in her maiden claiming races and required class relief from the HS Indy statebred allowance events. Value is still a concern for stablemate #2 FROST WARRIOR back on the main track (Surface/Distance Plot downgrade) to weight against the post time odds. As upside, her turf numbers and form (Standard Plot) fit and could move forward from the November 25^th race given the poor start (TROUBLE_S) and with a rider change, moving off the rail and in her second start of the form cycle/claim for Meraz.

Looking at the Surface/Distance Plot, #5 SHANGHAI POINT could present a pace advantage in today’s race. This would be the time for a top effort as they wheel back in two weeks with the class drop in the second start of the form cycle. His trip could be easier on the front end as the other pacesetter, #3 KING TITO has a tendency to break slow as shown in the Past 3 Runlines. 

A case can be made that #2 EMOJI GUY has not been able to show his best this season (impacting Plot position/shape) with a TROUBLE trip on October 9^th and a poor start in first start off the claim/form cycle for Perez on November 20^th. Where there is upside for Emoji Guy, there might not be as much for 10-year-old, #1 NYOMAN with average form this year and GATE issues returning from the layoff on November 20^th, which can be a negative sign especially with older race horses. #7 SIR ACEALOT fits on his best though is not as consistent and value is required. 

#8 EASTER MUSIC has a win at this condition from back on September 24^th, the opening day of the fall meet. As far as that win, he was flattered with a PERFECT trip and from the complexion of the compact field which included the heavy favorite pulling up the opening ¼. His figures fit on his best day though tends to prefer more time between starts and noted as they wheel back in three weeks from the BTL place finish, the “winning” effort for the level with the B OptixGRADE on November 18^th.

Tough to take the shorter expected number on #4 BERAVINA with the change is distance and the NO_FINISH at this allowance level on November 11^th. A shorter price is no real value on #8 WILDWOOD BYE as she will take on a two-fold test stepping up to take on winners and first time around two-turns. With that said, she is a lightly raced improving type that could present more upside of the two.

#5 SHE’S WANDAFUL has struggled to win at this allowance condition in the past, though could land in the right time and place at the right number. She turned in a BTL race in allowance company in the October 16^th turf sprint and was compromised by the handling (TACTIC-) on November 13^th to support a rider change today.

RACE 8: #10 SIRCORRI offers some value in this race as projected off the morning line with today’s race dynamic as the lone Quad I Square combined with the lower SpeedRate. 

Sircorri could fall into the right trip, drawn outside the other “Circles” in Quad I, that includes #7 D’FEVER the morning line favorite. D’Fever fits as an individual with the distance change (SHORTER, ONE_TURN) as projected in OptixNOTES along with the class relief from his higher level races this season. The change in class moves him up with OptixFIG in today’s OFR, though has the race dynamic as the main challenge. D’Fever should be kept honest by #1 D’ARCHER racing at the rail today moving from one extreme to the other exiting the November 18^th race, a race run under poor WEATHER conditions with cold temps, snow, and winds. #2 PINSON struggled (NO_HANDLE) to show his typical early speed (Quad I) on November 19^th perhaps did not take to the night racing that day.

#6 FIXICO has buried form this season and could be sitting on a peak effort today. He projected to IMPROVE off the TROUBLE on October 16^th and was compromised by the ride (TACTIC-) on November 20^th to expect improvement with a rider change today. 

Trip is also key for #4 FORT RIDGE and as a horse that has a long documented history of breaking slow. That slow start (SLOG) played against him on November 20^th still turning in an overall competitive effort, B- OptixGRADE for the level. That B- OptixGRADE is shared with his stablemate, #8 TALE OF THE NILE despite the change in finishing position from that common race with that third place finish likely to gather more public attention. #9 Z U SOON is another tougher to make a “contender” case for though has been competitive enough at this level for a minor share.

There are no real front runners in this race but 2-SHEZA SAVAGE looks like the best of the speed. She was claimed back by this barn two races ago and won a low-level nw3 last time out but she just might be in full control throughout in this one. 3-BEG BORROW N STEAL has been getting better with every start. The pace of this race doesn’t really favor her come-from-behind running style but she might be able to do it all on her own. 4-GHAALEB’S HONOR comes off a solid performance in an open allowance. She did display better than her normal early speed during that race. Might give top pick a run for the money on the front end.

6-C F V RED NOVA ran well in last despite coming off a 17-month layoff. He was claimed from that race and moves up in class but his new barn is one of the better claiming outfits around and they do well because they enter their horses where they can win. This one could be tough at a square price. 5-STORM BORN wired the field to break his maiden in his local dirt debut. Top pick might be a bit quicker if he gets sent but you can be pretty sure that this gelding will be gunning for the lead. He’ll be tough if he gets there first. 4-BIG BLUE raced primarily on turf and that’s where most of his success has been but he’s had two dirt races, both moved from the turf, and he finished second in both of them.

Wow! Tough race. But things could set up for 6-OWENS PLEASURE. She’s been finishing behind some in here but the pace of this race, with so many front runners, should set up perfectly for her late run. On the other hand, all the “speed” runners were claimed from their last start and their new connections might have different ideas on how they should run. Interesting. 1-KHOZIE’S GHOST is one that was recently claimed but she won her last three, five of her last six, and she was claimed by a barn that wins with a high percentage of their first-time claims. 5-FIRST KITTEN, another recent claimee, won her last two and three of her last four. Like Khozie’s Ghost, she loves the front end and is another claimed by a high-percentage claiming trainer. 

3-LAST WISH has been training well for his career debut and runners from this barn often do well when making their first starts. He’s meeting some runners that have been tiring after displaying early speed. Obviously have no idea of his running style yet but if he runs evenly, he might be able to take them late. 4-SWISS GUARD will be favored and could be the one that “should” win the race but he’s been running out of gas after displaying early speed. But, this could be the easiest field he has yet to face. Might be able to outlast them. 5-SHARP AZ NAILS appeared to run much better in last, his second career start but in reality he just ran evenly an never really made up much ground. But this will be his second trip over the track and he had a good drill since that last race. Might pull it all together.

Weak bunch but somebody has to win. How about 7-BOOZIN AT BOZOS? She’s only been splitting fields but she does come out of a “key” race and she’s dropping a notch. 5-JAMAICAN TRAFFIC finished a distant third in her local debut. But, she has now finished in the money in her last four and she could improve after getting a trip over the track. 2-FROST WARRIOR sports the highest speed figures of any in here but those figures were generated on turf. She does have some speed but probably not enough to clear the field. We’ll see.

5-SHANGHAI POINT says catch me. He’s meeting some others with early zip but he’s dropping in class and seems likely to leave the rest behind. He was no match for Big Sport who seems to have won about 100 races but there is no Big Sport in here. 1-NYOMAN is always a threat. This 10-year-old hasn’t been able to win this year but with good tactical speed he could be best prepared to take advantage if top choice does run out of gas. 8-EASTER MUSIC usually runs well when entered at the right level. He narrowly missed in last, versus easier, had little luck versus better in his previous start but beat rivals similar to this in his first start of the meet. 

Like the way 8-WILDWOOD BYE improved with each passing start. She only graduated in last and only won by a neck but this lightly-raced filly seems to have the most upside. The longer distance of this race should only improve her chances. If that improvement trend continues though this race, she should be able to score her second victory. There is no secret with the intentions of 1-GHAALEB’S DOMAIN. She is going to break in front, possibly build up a commanding lead and dare the others to catch her. It might not happen.  4-BERAVINA took nine starts to break her maiden and had to come to Hawthorne to do it but she did come right back to finish third at this level in a very tough “key” race in her next start. She beat top choice by a half in her maiden win. But she could have a tough time repeating that victory. 7-QUILTING PARTY come off a victory in $25 claimers but what makes her worth another look is that she’s two-for-two on off tracks, both dominating victories, and the weatherman is predicting precipitation, though it might be snow by the time this races goes off.

Not in love with 7-D’FEVER but he is dropping to probably his lowest level ever while turning back to his bet distance. 8-TALE OF THE NILE finished third at this level in his last two starts. He’ll be coming on late. Can get close. 4-FORT RIDGE started off too far back, 11^th 10 lengths behind, but managed to make up plenty of ground and got up for fifth, only a little over three lengths behind the winner. He generally races closer to the pace. If he gets off to a better start today, he could be far more competitive.

With the potential for rain on Friday looks to those with wet track form or breeding in spots where you can find it. A short field to open the day and will be curious to see if Becker runs both in this spot. I would expect he does as the purse is worth taking the shot for. Sheza Savage is one with potential to steal this race but this is a pretty big hike in class and she may face enough pace pressure early that she could have to work a bit for position in the opening eighth. Ghaaleb's Honor holds the most class and consistency of the bunch as she makes her fourth start of the meet. She ran a respectable fourth against open-company in her last and has already defeated multiple entrants in this field. She won't provide much value but with a nice pick 5 carryover of over $7k to open the card, this could be a good single to kick off your ticket.

Despite the short field there looks to be a fair amount of early pace to keep things contentious upfront through the opening fractions. Asti Sky, Storm's Reflection and Storm Born all seem committed to the front which should set things up for the closing kick of Big Blue. Big Blue drops in class today and ran on late behind a lone speed last time out to run second. With the short field he should be able to save ground throughout and get into the clear in the lane. Give a look to C F V Red Nova as this one was claimed off a very lengthy layoff last out. He stretches out and ran a nice ran in his only off track start of his career.

This race is as much about the horse as it is about following where the rider lands. Last Wish debuts with Lasix off a good pattern of drills for a barn that has the ability to win early. He draws well and looks to be geared up for this start. Additionally, Roman looks to have chosen this one over Snowmobile, a horse who ran well with him in the saddle last out. This has also been the meet where Minnesota-bred horses have had tremendous success, so the breeding cannot be discounted by any means.

This is not a good bunch by any means but what it may provide is some solid wagering opportunities. There isn't much consistent form out of this field but in digging deeper there are a few things that standout. Truly think Tap N Twine is actually sitting in a great spot in here today. This race is completely lacking of any sort of early pace. If you look back at the start of Tap N Twine two races back, she showed speed with Ulloa in the saddle and hung in well into the stretch in a race that had some pace in it, finishing fifth at 130-1. The top two from that race each won their next out. There's not nearly the pace in here today and Tap N Twine could very easily steal this race with a clean break.

On paper Nyoman is so much better than this field but all too often he gets a really odd trip that leaves him finishing underneath. At what will likely be a very short price today, I can't take the chance on that happening again, especially knowing that he is somehow winless on the year when he should already have multiple victories. Easter Music could provide a bit more value in here. He loves this track, has won 2 of 3 on an off track and has enough speed to clear and tuck in into the turn.

The off track could make all of the difference in here as there are a lot of unknowns with many in this field stretching out for the first time. While She's Wandaful has spent the majority of her time on the grass, the start four races back at Canterbury could be the key in here. That was a race that came off the grass as she ran a big race in the mud. She rated closer and had more than enough left in the tank late. While there could be some early pace in this race, She's Wandaful isn't committed to the front and may get a perfect tracking trip.

This is a really weird race to finish out the card as the likely favorites are either switching distances & taking huge class drops (D'Fever) or have developed bad habits of closing too late (Tale of the Nile). Hoping the track is still wet by the end of the card as it moves a horse like D'archer up in here. Despite 19 lifetime starts, he's made nearly half of his earnings in a pair of off track races, both of which he won. He chased while wide from the 12 hole last out and still ran a solid race. The move to the rail today and a slightly shorter field could make for a shot at a price in the end.

P 2 Western Wish 5 Charmbo Brie 6 Mach My Kiss

P 4 Beyond The Sea 7 Bad Rossa 2 Wildcat Star

P 6 E R Rhonda 3 Golden Leader 9 Southern Memories

P 2 Molly Moose 6 Fiery Shadow 4 Rose Run Yanna

P 10 Sibonney 9 Woodmere Stella 8 Show Me Some Magic

P 8 Baby Bonita 7 Fromakingtoaqueen 5 Acrimony

T 1 Thee Desperado 8 Lucas 4 Mr Contestant

P 4 Something Royal 5 War Diamond 6 Moonlitebeach

P 5 Need To Breathe 2 Jks Rollin Baby 1 Ahoy

P 3 Tuggingoncredit 1 Mystifying 6 Voluptuous