Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 KISS N BIZ can be upgraded today as a Quad I Square from a Quad I Circle on November 19^th, the common race for many in this field. #3 SENOR MIKE was no match for his stablemate, Skip Away Carter on November 19^th though went into the race with more upside than longtime maiden rival, #2 J J’S SOLUTION on the day and Senor Mike carries the same upside of the pair here again. Both horses battled for the minors with Senor Mike having more adversity in his trip from a rough (TROUBLE_S) start to TRAFFIC in running. The start of the race was also not as ideal (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) for the favorite and eventual place finisher, #4 DASH TO THE CASH one that returns logical in here though trip could be the hurdle on the front end again. 

#1 BOURBON TEDDY could hold a pace advantage in today’s race shape (Quad I Square) to match with his current form and figures on par for today’s race. #3 TAPIT SAM ran a BTL race at this level on November 12^th with Santiago too passive (TACTIC-) with the ride on November 27^th giving up position on the top two pacesetters, runners that finished together at the wire. 

A longshot case can be made for #7 THE GEEK, a lightly raced four-year-old that could present upside as he makes his second start off the long layoff. The trainer could be trying to repeat a winning pattern going back to 2020 with the win in the second start of the cycle and with class relief. The class change is subtle on paper alone with the October 28^th race holding an 85-77 OptixFIGRANGE/OFR. The Geek is on the “slower” side coming into this race and to make the case they are fast enough to compete here comes with a projection off the 66 OptixFIG earned in the maiden win as a juvenile.

The pace scenario shown with the “Fire” Contention and 67 SpeedRate along with the visual representation of the Standard OptixPLOT could set up a trip for #6 ROCKET HOTSHOT from off-the-pace as a Quad IV Square, and should offer the price compensation required for this type of closing runner. 

As far as the pacesetters, both #1 LUCKY SHOT and #2 TEE BURNS will return from the common race here back on October 30^th in their second start off the layoff to project improvement. The common race can be used to split the pair with Lucky Shot recording the higher B- OptixGRADE staying on as BOS (Best of the Speed) for an edge. 

#5 BASEBALL POLITICS can project improvement wheeling back in two weeks with class relief in his second start off the layoff. He fits with his top effort, though could be involved in the projected contentious race shape to weight as far as his odds where he could be favored here.

#1 KNIEVEL could land in the right time and place off his current form to look and clear this N3 level. He has recorded solid efforts with his OptixFIG/GRADES stacking up with the others in this field. Trip has been a hurdle and could suggest some intent coming back with a rider change. The inside trip could also assist being able to save ground to stalk and pounce with the pace projected to be honest with the “Fire” Contention. As far as the early pace, #6 MY BROTHER CAM could hold the edge if able to pair up effort from his November 26^th run just two weeks ago. 

The visuals from #2 POWERFUL MAN coming off the layoff in a sprint on November 20^th suggested a PREP and should move forward (IMPROVE) off that race. They return today with a slight rise in class (OFR) though a positive change in distance stretching back out to a route.  

The bulk of this field return from the Sun Power Stakes back on November 19^th and is important to note the race shape/dynamic with minimal change in running order behind pacesetting winner, #3 RIVZONAROLL. The dynamic should change here and see a more assertive ride from Emigh on #7 LOOKIN FOR BALA, those two shown side-by-side as Quad I Squares. #6 FEVER NATION must still improve, though a lightly raced type should be able to stalk behind that first (Quad I) flight for first run on Quad IV and primarily, #1 RIGHT ON RICHIE to have the edge of those two. 

First time starter, #5 SAWYER FOX could be just the new face to jump up in this group and certainly in capable hands for trainer, Catalano. Sawyer Fox has a steady worktab coming into this race training out in Kentucky where if he were to debut in a Special Weight race on that circuit or even the Fair Grounds where they are currently stabled, the race par (OFR) would likely be higher than today.

#1 CINDY’S G MAN has form and OptixFIG to run back to on the main track from his races here earlier in the year. Watkins might have been looking for the right spot to run him where he can win noting a pair for N1X allowance scratches since his return on October 20^th. They fit at this level with the non-winners of three eligibility. As far as pace, the “Fire” Contention is in play, though a moderate SpeedRate could assist their speed (Circle) to hold with Surface/Distance position over the Par Line.  

#2 SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY could be the obvious player in this field with a win at today’s condition back on October 8^th. He will return to make his second start off the claim for Broberg and from a slight excuse with the poor WEATHER conditions and rough start with the WIDE trip on November 18^th.

The conditions of eligibility also keep #7 VITALE in the race even with the three wins to his name. He has some buried form coming into this race for Martinez. The conditions/OFR of this race sit in line with the November 6^th claiming race, a competitive effort and the intent might not have been in play stepping up off the claim at the allowance level on November 20^th, with today’s race the intended placement.

This is a competitive race where an outcome from any in this field would be no surprise and worth going “price shopping” in this case. #2 ATHENAS SONG has some challenges coming off the layoff and giving up recency to others in this field, though has races that fit on her best day. She has been on the grounds training for Clay and could be intent to run at this meet and picking this spot. The barn will also send out #4 MISS MELODY with the intention easier to make a case for as she was entered here at this level on October 30^th before the scratch.

As far as the logical types, #3 JETS A GINNIN returns to this level looking for a win coming back for Becker off the 41-day freshening. #1 ISABELLACANNETELLA also returned in a competitive race at the level back on October 30^th and could repeat that effort here in the third start back off the layoff. #8 LILY’S WOOFY comes back off the November 11^th race and noted vet scratch at the higher $40k Optional Claiming level. The changes here as she returns to open company off that PERFECT trip win last month and running back for a tag as well should be weighed with her post time odds.

The form for #4 FIELD DAISEY declined following her first two starts this meet. She returns today with class relief to upgrade her in this race as shown as a Large Quad I Square. Her presence in the field and with that visuals could make things tougher on the other Quad I runners, #6 RUNAWAY A. TRAIN and #7 MANHATTAN LEGACY shown as overlapping Circles. 

The timing could be right for #3 MINI DRESS to return to a top effort here. She ran a competitive race with the place finish, B- OptixGRADE back on September 25^th and has had some subtle excuses since. That September effort and OptixFIG earned stacks right up with the November 18^th effort from #1 PALACE MAGIC. 

#9 AIKEN TO BE TAKIN has efforts throughout her career that fit today’s OFR and holds some hidden form from her races this season. The subtle change in class and distance could be just what she needs to find her top form. Trip will be key though has a similar Plot position and shape to others in this field and could offer value of that group and from some common races this year. Aiken to Be Takin recorded a higher OptixGRADE than #2 FIVE ROSES LUNA on November 27^th; and finished in front of #8 BEING CREATIVE on October 21^st.

4-DASH TO THE CASH just missed in last despite a terrible trip. He was 14 lengths back at one point but made up a ton of ground to finish second, less than a length back. Seems likely to graduate today. 2-J J’S SOLUTION, like top choice, has had a lot of starts but remains a maiden. However, with the exception of top choice, this looks like the easiest field he ever faced. He finished in the money in his last four. That streak is likely to continue. 1-KISS N BIZ has gotten to the lead in all three of her races but she tired in all of them, most recently behind the top pair. This will be her second race for this barn, however. Maybe she’ll show more staying power.

1-BOURBON TEDDY ran well in his first start of the meet, finishing third, but ran even better in last and even better in last finishing second. The cut back to five furlongs can help greatly. Could lead from start to finish. 3-TAPIT SAM was running well at Canterbury and finished second in his first start here but his last two races haven’t been that sharp. He does have good speed, however, and the right rider to take advantage of it. 4-TSALI might be able to show some late run.

Gotta give the edge to 1-LUCKY SHOT. He finished second in last, his first race versus straight claimers. It was also his first race in three and a half months. Worked a bullet since. Could be ready to take it all the way. 2-TEE BURNS dueled with top choice in last but ultimately tired a bit more and finished third, two lengths behind Lucky Shot. He was another coming off a lengthy layoff, five and a half months in his case, and probably needed the race also. He worked a bullet since that race too. They will probably duel for the lead once again. It could be that way all the way around. Think Chris Emigh will be able to get 5-BASEBALL POLITICS to relax a bit and have this gelding poised to attack late. Of course, with the drop from allowance company, he just might hold a bit of a class edge and could break on top and let the top pair try to catch him.

6-MY BROTHER CAM could be tough on the front end. He just finished second when starting at this level for the first time. Doesn’t seem likely to face much early pressure. Could coast along unchallenged. 4-SON OF GRACE wheels back quickly after winning at Turfway last week. He does enjoy early speed but with all but one of his races on either turf or dirt, it’s hard to know how he’ll race today since possibly the worst race of his career came in his lone dirt start. 8-JACK’S SPRING BREAK also won his last start which was his first start after getting claimed by this barn. He has the perfect tracking running style which could have him poised to repeat if an unexpected speed duel develops.

3-RIVSONAROLL could extend his roll to three. Hero of the SunPower Stakes three weeks ago wired the fields in his last two starts. Probably won’t get an unchallenged lead today but that didn’t bother him in last. It shouldn’t today. 7-LOOKIN FOR BALA chased top pick in the SunPower to no avail. He was second, seldom more than a length back, throughout. The pace and the outcome could be the same today. 5-SAWYER FOX makes his career debut. His works done seem to be anything special until you realize that he’s been training at some of the toughest tracks around. It is Catalano. Ignore at your own risk.

The pace of this race should set up perfectly for 8-MON AMIE FUZZY. He just missed in last when dropped to this level. That race was a sixteenth farther but the pace of this race should be even more intense. Can run by them all. There is plenty of speed in this race but think that 5-MUD ISLAND will be the quickest of them. He wired the field in last, his first after getting claimed by this barn. Might be able to do it again. 2-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY drops. He was claimed for $20k two races back, showed little in his first start for this barn, so he’s back for sale at a lower level. Could wake up versus these.

3-JETS A GINNIN was given a little freshening but she’s back and likely ready to go. She had two sharp workouts in the six weeks since her last start. She’ll face plenty of pressure on the front end but could put them all away. 8-LILY’S WOOFY is quick though probably not quite as quick as top choice. But, she’ll never be far back. She scored in a state-bred allowance in her last start but she has had plenty of success versus open company on this track. 1-ISABELLACANATELLA drops out of allowance company. Fast mare has been effective in starter allowance company. She was overmatched in last but fits well with this group.

Not in love with 7-MANHATTAN LEGACY but she will me facing her easiest field ever. However, she’ll also be making her first start in almost a year. Like that she’s been training regularly for her return. Might be OK at this level. 2-FIVE ROSES LUNA could be the best of the speed. She had trouble at the start of her last two races and never got close to the lead but she could wire the field in a race that appears devoid of other real speed.1-PALACE MAGIC comes off her best race in a while. That was her third race after a layoff. Could be even tighter this time. 

Not a great bunch to open the card so look to pace to dictate the race. Kiss N Biz makes her second start at this level since being claimed and gets the bug boy in the saddle once again. She showed good speed last out in a larger field and held on well into the lane. In here she has the potential to clear from the rail and possibly steal this one.

Again along the lines of inside speed dictating things early in a winter card that is the case here in the second. Bourbon Teddy looks to be the fastest to the front. He shortens up a 16th off a solid performance last out and looks to be the fastest from the gate once again today. Race one will give you a good idea of how the track is playing and if Kiss N Biz holds on well in that spot then it should prove helpful for Bourbon Teddy in here.

No real standout in this spot so just searching for a bit of a better price with Baseball Politics. He turns back to the main track after chasing on the grass in his last. With the second start off the layoff there is the potential for him to improve and possibly beat the inside two to the top.

Don't want to overthink this one too much. There's nobody faster than My Brother Cam in here as he should be able to dictate things on the front end. He ran an improved race on the drop last out with the only concern coming that he drifted a bit late in that spot. He won't provide a ton of value in here but a repeat of his last makes him a winner.

This is the race where I expect things to turn from a speed track to a closers strip as there's so much pace in this race. With what is likely to be a contested pace upfront, the class drop and second start for the new barn for Sonnyisnotsofunny will make this one very tough. He does drop below the level of the claim so to get out on the horse for the owner will require a win and a claim. This barn is smart and that may be the intent.

Really only think this is a two horse race and Jets A Ginnin has disappointed a bit this year with an inability to finish. Lily's Woofy has shown a better late kick recently as she should get a great stalking trip in here. The distance suits and she gets four weeks since her last start.

Complete head scratcher of a race. None in here with consistent form and none really committed to the front either. Not a huge fan of the long layoff along with massive class plunge for Manhattan Legacy but she has been working consistently and picks up top jock in Emigh in the saddle. If she's ready off the rest you would have to expect she wins on class alone.

P 3 Settin A Precedent 4 Mia Culpa 5 Snow Shark

P 4 Unsung Hero 2 Jack Panic 1 Whammer Jammer

P 7 Cadillac Bayama 2 Legion Seelster 3 Nautical Hanover

P 3 Emmetts Buddy 6 Night Shadow 1 Bettor Than Pride

P 8 Southbeach Hanover 1 Century Hannibal 3 Actor Hanover

P 7 Carbine 5 Commanding Officer 2 Respect Our Flag

P 6 Flyingevenbettor 2 Hesincontrol 3 Beyond Better

P 1 Millenium Seelster 2 Sometime Somewhere 3 Outlaw Aceofspades

P 8 Wheels On Fire 4 Saulsbrook Victor 7 No Free Lunch

P 6 Coligny Hanover 7 Yourtheone 10 Jabberwocky