Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 NAUGHTY ALFRED has regrouped after a rough start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and WIDE trip on November 6^th. Their early speed from the races prior stack up on par noting the class drop returning today. The drop is less of a concern without a rider change and the year winding down with connections looking to place horses where they can compete. His early speed (Quad I) also fits to race competitively in today’s race shape.

#2 PACHI also projects another forward movement in his form cycle with progressive OptixGRADES/FIGS coming into this race in the third start of the cycle. #6 KREWE CHIEF is proven at this level and looks to prove himself right back to pair wins from the November 18^th race. As shown on OptixPLOT from Quad IV, trip is key from off the pace. 

Vanden Berg has had some time with #6 SAMARITA, a filly that can be a tougher one to work with and get right. When she is right, she fits at this level and shows up back to the condition of the October 14^th win and the placement first off the claim just 16-days ago. The race shape is tricky with the layoff returning runners in this field. #2 SHEZ RECKLESS could have the edge with her early speed (Quad III Square) and consistency in returning works over rival, #6 MANHATTAN LEGACY.

As far as the November 19^th common race, #5 YANKEE AGATE could be upgraded setting the pace (PRESSED) and stalked by the top two that finished together at the wire. She has run some of the faster races in this field and should land in the right spot to break through the maiden condition in this third start back off the layoff. In addition to her form, GRADES/FIGS, she has a favorable Plot position as a Quad I Square for today’s race shape.

Pompell has had success this meet sending out two runners in a maiden race and comes back with a similar pattern here. #7 AWESOME KITTY has the benefit of a race wheeling back from the November 19^th debut and slow start (SLOG) and WIDE trip. Stablemate #1 CHASING GHOST’S was entered and scratched from that race and shows works since. There will be a rider change and downgrade as Tavares was named on November 19^th and remains with #4 RAINY MOUNTAIN today.

Sullivan returns with a pair in this race and could be considered the horses to beat. #1 MY REDEMPTION has been holding his form and will look to keep up his current win streak. He has benefit from favorable trips and will require another trip today with the shift to the rail. #2 HARD N’SWEET ships into Hawthorne after dominating his rivals (B+ OptixGRADE) just over a week ago at Mahoning Valley and will be tested to hold his form coming off that top effort of the cycle on short rest. 

#6 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER could be dismissed in this race and has form and races in his career that fit as a contender. His form coming into this race could also be upgraded with some subtle trips starting with the layoff return on October 27^th at HS Indy and some excuse with the WEATHER conditions and high kickback impacting the results here on December 2^nd, the race just 9-days ago.

It is tough to get too creative with the runners with race experience as #3 BOONE’S PATH fits as a contender off current form and OptixFIG that stacks up strongly for this level and #6 BALADINE with a potential pace advantage – Quad I Square. 

As far as the first-time starters in this field, #2 MIDNIGHT ESCAPE was entered to debut back on June 2^nd for Todd Pletcher and Flavien Prat at Belmont in a Special Weight race though a vet scratch. She has gone through some changes since landing here on this circuit and now with trainer Javier Hernandez. The trade off with the more consistent works for #7 SUMMER COUNTRY shifts with local foundation for #9 GUST OF WIND working here at Hawthorne.

Value upgrade with #5 RED FLAG ALERT freshened from the November 12^th race at Churchill Downs starter allowance, a higher purse event during the “Claiming Crown” day of races. That effort could be upgraded here as well racing up close to a Fast/F O4S opening half mile and returns in a lower SpeedRate event. In addition, his form this year at HS Indy both on the main track and turf stacks up on OFR and has prior form here at Hawthorne on par as well. 

#10 CURRENT figures to take up the role as the favorite for his connections and class relief/back class in this race. His current races have been contested on the turf though has a main track win over this course and distance from April 17^th with a 98 OptixFIG for the win that stacks up above today’s OFR. The 94 OptixFIG recorded from #11 GO EMI also fits above OFR, however that number was a new top by almost 10 points and recorded at a longer distance making that number a questionable outlier.

#8 MEGAN’S HONOR has been holding his form (OptixGRADE, clean Past 3 Runlines) this meet and with progressive OptixFIG that fit today’s race though another move forward would be required to win. That carries to #7 GITA’S LAD, one that might require a bit more than the value than the morning line suggests. The shift in value should land with #3 FIRST MASAMUNE one with progressive form and should be sitting on a peak effort today with the test of that race being good enough (with the right trip) to win.

The Standard Plot shows a scenario of #7 SINGING ALLI with a potential pace advantage to clear on the front end to take this field gate-to-wire. Things become more Contentious on Surface/Distance and Plot position that could upgrade #8 GOOD MONGOLIA. In addition to the Plot, Good Mongolia recorded a solid 72 OptixFIG on September 30^th over this course and distance against a higher condition/purse and a return to that effort stacks up as a contender. 

The morning line projection on #3 IMAGINE GOLD keeps her in the mix based on the Plot position if just on value alone.

#4 SPENDER had the massive hurdle on November 20^th coming off the 1079-day layoff and is encouraging to see her back from that race in three weeks to suggest a move forward today. She was WARM that day and something to look for on the track. #6 WEEKEND PASS will find a different change in timing wheeling right back in a week with subtle class relief from the open company $5k claiming race. #5 RENTAL POOL has the current form, class and numbers to stack up on par with the surface switch the main hurdle as she has been most effective throughout her career on the grass. 

He’s dropping for a reason but can’t help but think that 2-NAUGHTY ALFRED will be tough to beat today. He’s dropping for a reason, his last race was pretty dismal though he had trouble at the start and he had only one work since, but the reason could be as simple as wanting to get him eligible again for starter races. 6-KREWE CHIEF just beat most of these and might be capable of doing it again. Probable lively pace will set up for him once more. Could cruise by late. 5-RED HOT DEVIL is seeking his second win in a row. He’s one of many in here with speed but his win in last was described as a “hand ride”. Could have plenty left in the tank.

There’s an old racing axiom, ‘left her race in the gate” and that might have explained the dull effort by 5-SAMARITA in her last start. She was making her first start for this barn after a claim but she was acting up pretty badly prior to the start and she probably expended a lot of energy. She had run well in all three of her previous starts at the meet. She has had some more time in this barn. Expecting to wake back up today. 3-LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT moves up in class but she is coming off a powerful victory. She ran well in all four of her local starts and was claimed from her last two. Think she’ll handle the raise in class. 6-MANHATTAN LEGACY was probably in an easier spot yesterday but her connections opted to run her here instead. It’s been nearly a year since she raced last but she has been working well for her return. Might be able to come on late and share.

5-YANKEE AGATE looks poised to graduate. She ran well to finish fourth in her local debut and even better to finish third in last. Her rivals seem to be in less-than-optimal form. Should get the job done. 3-COWGIRL FRANKIE completes the sprint-route-sprint cycle. She seems to have some pretty severe issues coming out of the gate but maybe she’ll like her new rider better. 4-RAINY MOUNTAIN faces open company for the first time but this field did come up abnormally easy. She went off at over 50-1 in last but still managed to finish second. Off that race she looks like she should be a top contender in this event.

6-BAREFOOT BOOTLEGGER is far from the quickest member of this field and doesn’t boast the big closing move of some of his rivals but give him a legitimate change because of both those facts. He’s kind of a one paced runner. He’s not going to go for the lead but he does own enough speed to stay somewhat close so he won’t have to make up a lot of ground late. Not sure he can get the distance, none in here ever raced this far, but he’ll be helped along by the apprentice rider in his irons and the 10-pound weight break that comes with the rider can make a huge difference at this distance. 5-C F V WICKED RED has been in good form for a while and ran well in both local starts; winning one and finishing second in the other. He does finish his races with good energy so the distance of this race might not be an obstacle.  Recent claim 3-IOYA AGAIN can win right back. Late runner would seem likely to relish the nine-furlong distance of this race. However, he has raced primarily on turf and his dirt races haven’t been all that sharp. Could be vulnerable at a possible short price.

3-BOONE’S PATH does seem most likely. He ran well in four of his five starts, across various racetracks, and finished second in both local contests. Might want a bit more distance but he could finish fastest of all to win this. 6-BALADINE led much of the way in his two local dirt starts but tired late and got passed by top choice. But, if this turned out to be a speed-favoring surface today, he might not get caught. 8-TEA WITH LEMON moves up in class but he is also making his second start and runners from this barn often need a race or two. He split the field in his debut could do somewhat better today.

9-W W CANDY isn’t a strong choice but he is dropping from allowance company and he won the last time he took on starter allowance company and those races were somewhat easier than this one. However, there should be an abundance of speed ahead of him and he might be able to run by late. 3-JACK VAN BERG could outlast the rest of the speed. He faded to second in his last couple after leading most of the way but he’s certainly capable of leading throughout. 1-LATIN CASINO just might be the quickest of these. Have to like that these connections claimed him back after losing him in his previous start. But he often runs out of gas late. Hard to gauge.

8-MEGAN’S HONOR is about as consistent as you can get. He finished out of the money only one time in his 16 starts and he only finished third once, along with six wins and seven places. He’s tough on or right off the early pace. 10-CURRENT might hold a class edge but that edge would be more significant if this race was on turf. Thirty one of his 37 races were on turf. However, he has one win on the main track and that win came here in April. Not crazy about recent form but should be meeting easier than he’s been facing lately. 2-PADDY’S HOUSE has spent most of his career on turf but he’s been far better on the main track. All of his victories came on the main track. He could come on late to take this. 

8-GOOD MONGOLIA drops sharply. She’s one of those that raced primarily on turf but her best recent races all came on dirt. With the drop and switch in surfaces, she could be tough. 5-RENTAL POOL’s main-track record leaves a lot to be desired but all of her starts, including her main-track starts, have been against better. Can awaken with the drop. 6-WEEKEND PASS finished third in her last two starts. Meets many in poor form. Could be a top competitor.

Even though there's only six in here, hopefully all six remain as there is a good amount of early pace to keep things honest upfront.  Krewe Chief was a solid winner for $5k last out and I'm a bit surprised to see him back in for this tag as he could be ripe to be claimed. He has an excellent record at the distance and if any moisture remains in the track it will benefit his chances.

For a three-year-old filly having a solid year, Lucy's Lookin Left looks to be a good claim in recent starts.  She has stalking ability which will allow for her to track the pace and run on late. She's never finished worse than second from four starts over the track and gets a top jock in Santiago  in the saddle.

After a lengthy layoff, Yankee Agate has been sharp in a pair of starts this meet. She faced a quality bunch in her last and was able to hold her own as she made the top and battled the entire way. Unless one of the first timers steps up, this one should be sitting on a victory in here.

My Redemption has really taken nicely to this track, winning around two turns as well as sprinting. Sullivan claimed this one back off the last start and Reyes returns to ride. That is enough for me to endorse his chances once again.

Had to go back and take a look at Khozan's Valentine's replay tow back where he was declared a non-starter. Probably a questionable call at best as he got away slightly slowly but he should have been called a start IMO. His last race was a very game effort around two turns. He picks up a big boost with Tavares in the saddle in here and has the tactical sped to sit just off the early pace and run on in the lane. 

Like the move back to two turns for Megan's Honor as he has run back to back solid races. He has enough speed to clear if he chooses to do so and there isn't a ton of pace in this race. With Current likely to take a lot of action, there's a chance Megan's Honor gets away at a solid price as well.

Can't discount the recent efforts out of Weekend Pass as he has gradually improved, running on last in his last couple. What speed that is in here looks to give way rather early but the pace should remain honest enough upfront that he will be closing ground late.