Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 GHAALEB’S HONOR returns to the company of fillies and mares from the November 6^th event and a softer race par. She stacks up off her form this season and exiting the common races with others in this group from September 30 and October 15^th. Becker will also send out #1 WILDWOOD POSSE, a filly that has struggled to make the races this season with a vet scratch from a $25k N2L claiming race on November 18^th – a race #3 BEG BORROW N STEAL returns from. 

Looking at the dynamic (OptixPLOT) the pace should be contentious (Sun) combined with the higher SpeedRate along with four of the six runners sharing the E or EP RunStyle. The race shape in this case sets up for the two PC RunStyle horses; #4 BIG BLUE and #6 C F V RED NOVA. In addition to race shape, both runners fit with OptixFIG in today’s OFR and with current form based on the races (OptixGRADE/NOTES) this season. 

The race shape could set up similar to Race 2 with a “Fire” Contention and 50 SpeedRate. The pacesetters, which includes morning line favorite, #1 KHOZIE’S GHOST all take up a role in Quad I and lacking finish (or an edge in the case of Khozie’s Ghost at a short price) as Circles. 

#6 OWEN’S PLEASURE comes up as the more “logical” off her current form this season at today’s claiming level returning from the B OptixGRADE on November 11^th. She does have some gate issues (SLOG) that is worth noting and to be expected. #2 MARY’S LAST SONG returns with class relief for this race and off the WIDE trip with weaker handling (TACTIC-) just 12-days ago and can move forward to compete off her recent races since the claim for Matthews. #4 ROCK THE BIRDHOUSE is lighter on class and speed figures with the race shape required to upgrade her today. She gives up recency returning from the 70-day layoff, though could overall benefit from the freshening and back to a sprint distance from the September 30^th route race.

Experience could be the edge for #4 SWISS GUARD and #5 SHARP AZ NAILS coming into this race off their form this season. That edge is necessary as individuals they have left something to be desired on the track and should be factored with the shorter price expected.

Second time starter, #7 SLAVA UKRAINI could present upside (and value) from their November 11^th debut. He seems to have come out of the race well working another half mile on November 29^th for Zawitz. They will also return with first time Lasix and a rider change as Tavares will not be riding on today’s program.

The limited worktab is in play for #6 SOVIET STANDARD at the same time intent could be in play with the local works and with Diego Sanchez aboard. That similar intent for #8 STAR NATION with the steady series of local works coming into this race. Robertson could get attention here with first time starter, #3 LAST WISH, one that was intended for Canterbury and with the setbacks debuts here by default - to weight against the projected shorter odds.

#5 JAMICAN TRAFFIC and #6 TAP N TWINE could offer value in this race with buried form that could fit today’s race shape. Both are shown on OptixPLOT in Quad I with the Surface/Distance upgrade to Squares. They could have that edge and price compensation over #1 HEY MA, another that should be expected to show early speed from the rail to have her best chance in today’s race shape. 

Meraz will send out a pair in this race and could find the longer odds on #8 SHINY SHOES making her local debut. Number wise she is softer than others though not far off with some upside as a lightly raced type. She moved forward in her maiden claiming races and required class relief from the HS Indy statebred allowance events. Value is still a concern for stablemate #2 FROST WARRIOR back on the main track (Surface/Distance Plot downgrade) to weight against the post time odds. As upside, her turf numbers and form (Standard Plot) fit and could move forward from the November 25^th race given the poor start (TROUBLE_S) and with a rider change, moving off the rail and in her second start of the form cycle/claim for Meraz.

Looking at the Surface/Distance Plot, #5 SHANGHAI POINT could present a pace advantage in today’s race. This would be the time for a top effort as they wheel back in two weeks with the class drop in the second start of the form cycle. His trip could be easier on the front end as the other pacesetter, #3 KING TITO has a tendency to break slow as shown in the Past 3 Runlines. 

A case can be made that #2 EMOJI GUY has not been able to show his best this season (impacting Plot position/shape) with a TROUBLE trip on October 9^th and a poor start in first start off the claim/form cycle for Perez on November 20^th. Where there is upside for Emoji Guy, there might not be as much for 10-year-old, #1 NYOMAN with average form this year and GATE issues returning from the layoff on November 20^th, which can be a negative sign especially with older race horses. #7 SIR ACEALOT fits on his best though is not as consistent and value is required. 

#8 EASTER MUSIC has a win at this condition from back on September 24^th, the opening day of the fall meet. As far as that win, he was flattered with a PERFECT trip and from the complexion of the compact field which included the heavy favorite pulling up the opening ¼. His figures fit on his best day though tends to prefer more time between starts and noted as they wheel back in three weeks from the BTL place finish, the “winning” effort for the level with the B OptixGRADE on November 18^th.

Tough to take the shorter expected number on #4 BERAVINA with the change is distance and the NO_FINISH at this allowance level on November 11^th. A shorter price is no real value on #8 WILDWOOD BYE as she will take on a two-fold test stepping up to take on winners and first time around two-turns. With that said, she is a lightly raced improving type that could present more upside of the two.

#5 SHE’S WANDAFUL has struggled to win at this allowance condition in the past, though could land in the right time and place at the right number. She turned in a BTL race in allowance company in the October 16^th turf sprint and was compromised by the handling (TACTIC-) on November 13^th to support a rider change today.

RACE 8: #10 SIRCORRI offers some value in this race as projected off the morning line with today’s race dynamic as the lone Quad I Square combined with the lower SpeedRate. 

Sircorri could fall into the right trip, drawn outside the other “Circles” in Quad I, that includes #7 D’FEVER the morning line favorite. D’Fever fits as an individual with the distance change (SHORTER, ONE_TURN) as projected in OptixNOTES along with the class relief from his higher level races this season. The change in class moves him up with OptixFIG in today’s OFR, though has the race dynamic as the main challenge. D’Fever should be kept honest by #1 D’ARCHER racing at the rail today moving from one extreme to the other exiting the November 18^th race, a race run under poor WEATHER conditions with cold temps, snow, and winds. #2 PINSON struggled (NO_HANDLE) to show his typical early speed (Quad I) on November 19^th perhaps did not take to the night racing that day.

#6 FIXICO has buried form this season and could be sitting on a peak effort today. He projected to IMPROVE off the TROUBLE on October 16^th and was compromised by the ride (TACTIC-) on November 20^th to expect improvement with a rider change today. 

Trip is also key for #4 FORT RIDGE and as a horse that has a long documented history of breaking slow. That slow start (SLOG) played against him on November 20^th still turning in an overall competitive effort, B- OptixGRADE for the level. That B- OptixGRADE is shared with his stablemate, #8 TALE OF THE NILE despite the change in finishing position from that common race with that third place finish likely to gather more public attention. #9 Z U SOON is another tougher to make a “contender” case for though has been competitive enough at this level for a minor share.