Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 KISS N BIZ can be upgraded today as a Quad I Square from a Quad I Circle on November 19^th, the common race for many in this field. #3 SENOR MIKE was no match for his stablemate, Skip Away Carter on November 19^th though went into the race with more upside than longtime maiden rival, #2 J J’S SOLUTION on the day and Senor Mike carries the same upside of the pair here again. Both horses battled for the minors with Senor Mike having more adversity in his trip from a rough (TROUBLE_S) start to TRAFFIC in running. The start of the race was also not as ideal (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) for the favorite and eventual place finisher, #4 DASH TO THE CASH one that returns logical in here though trip could be the hurdle on the front end again. 

#1 BOURBON TEDDY could hold a pace advantage in today’s race shape (Quad I Square) to match with his current form and figures on par for today’s race. #3 TAPIT SAM ran a BTL race at this level on November 12^th with Santiago too passive (TACTIC-) with the ride on November 27^th giving up position on the top two pacesetters, runners that finished together at the wire. 

A longshot case can be made for #7 THE GEEK, a lightly raced four-year-old that could present upside as he makes his second start off the long layoff. The trainer could be trying to repeat a winning pattern going back to 2020 with the win in the second start of the cycle and with class relief. The class change is subtle on paper alone with the October 28^th race holding an 85-77 OptixFIGRANGE/OFR. The Geek is on the “slower” side coming into this race and to make the case they are fast enough to compete here comes with a projection off the 66 OptixFIG earned in the maiden win as a juvenile.

The pace scenario shown with the “Fire” Contention and 67 SpeedRate along with the visual representation of the Standard OptixPLOT could set up a trip for #6 ROCKET HOTSHOT from off-the-pace as a Quad IV Square, and should offer the price compensation required for this type of closing runner. 

As far as the pacesetters, both #1 LUCKY SHOT and #2 TEE BURNS will return from the common race here back on October 30^th in their second start off the layoff to project improvement. The common race can be used to split the pair with Lucky Shot recording the higher B- OptixGRADE staying on as BOS (Best of the Speed) for an edge. 

#5 BASEBALL POLITICS can project improvement wheeling back in two weeks with class relief in his second start off the layoff. He fits with his top effort, though could be involved in the projected contentious race shape to weight as far as his odds where he could be favored here.

#1 KNIEVEL could land in the right time and place off his current form to look and clear this N3 level. He has recorded solid efforts with his OptixFIG/GRADES stacking up with the others in this field. Trip has been a hurdle and could suggest some intent coming back with a rider change. The inside trip could also assist being able to save ground to stalk and pounce with the pace projected to be honest with the “Fire” Contention. As far as the early pace, #6 MY BROTHER CAM could hold the edge if able to pair up effort from his November 26^th run just two weeks ago. 

The visuals from #2 POWERFUL MAN coming off the layoff in a sprint on November 20^th suggested a PREP and should move forward (IMPROVE) off that race. They return today with a slight rise in class (OFR) though a positive change in distance stretching back out to a route.  

The bulk of this field return from the Sun Power Stakes back on November 19^th and is important to note the race shape/dynamic with minimal change in running order behind pacesetting winner, #3 RIVZONAROLL. The dynamic should change here and see a more assertive ride from Emigh on #7 LOOKIN FOR BALA, those two shown side-by-side as Quad I Squares. #6 FEVER NATION must still improve, though a lightly raced type should be able to stalk behind that first (Quad I) flight for first run on Quad IV and primarily, #1 RIGHT ON RICHIE to have the edge of those two. 

First time starter, #5 SAWYER FOX could be just the new face to jump up in this group and certainly in capable hands for trainer, Catalano. Sawyer Fox has a steady worktab coming into this race training out in Kentucky where if he were to debut in a Special Weight race on that circuit or even the Fair Grounds where they are currently stabled, the race par (OFR) would likely be higher than today.

#1 CINDY’S G MAN has form and OptixFIG to run back to on the main track from his races here earlier in the year. Watkins might have been looking for the right spot to run him where he can win noting a pair for N1X allowance scratches since his return on October 20^th. They fit at this level with the non-winners of three eligibility. As far as pace, the “Fire” Contention is in play, though a moderate SpeedRate could assist their speed (Circle) to hold with Surface/Distance position over the Par Line.  

#2 SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY could be the obvious player in this field with a win at today’s condition back on October 8^th. He will return to make his second start off the claim for Broberg and from a slight excuse with the poor WEATHER conditions and rough start with the WIDE trip on November 18^th.

The conditions of eligibility also keep #7 VITALE in the race even with the three wins to his name. He has some buried form coming into this race for Martinez. The conditions/OFR of this race sit in line with the November 6^th claiming race, a competitive effort and the intent might not have been in play stepping up off the claim at the allowance level on November 20^th, with today’s race the intended placement.

This is a competitive race where an outcome from any in this field would be no surprise and worth going “price shopping” in this case. #2 ATHENAS SONG has some challenges coming off the layoff and giving up recency to others in this field, though has races that fit on her best day. She has been on the grounds training for Clay and could be intent to run at this meet and picking this spot. The barn will also send out #4 MISS MELODY with the intention easier to make a case for as she was entered here at this level on October 30^th before the scratch.

As far as the logical types, #3 JETS A GINNIN returns to this level looking for a win coming back for Becker off the 41-day freshening. #1 ISABELLACANNETELLA also returned in a competitive race at the level back on October 30^th and could repeat that effort here in the third start back off the layoff. #8 LILY’S WOOFY comes back off the November 11^th race and noted vet scratch at the higher $40k Optional Claiming level. The changes here as she returns to open company off that PERFECT trip win last month and running back for a tag as well should be weighed with her post time odds.

The form for #4 FIELD DAISEY declined following her first two starts this meet. She returns today with class relief to upgrade her in this race as shown as a Large Quad I Square. Her presence in the field and with that visuals could make things tougher on the other Quad I runners, #6 RUNAWAY A. TRAIN and #7 MANHATTAN LEGACY shown as overlapping Circles. 

The timing could be right for #3 MINI DRESS to return to a top effort here. She ran a competitive race with the place finish, B- OptixGRADE back on September 25^th and has had some subtle excuses since. That September effort and OptixFIG earned stacks right up with the November 18^th effort from #1 PALACE MAGIC. 

#9 AIKEN TO BE TAKIN has efforts throughout her career that fit today’s OFR and holds some hidden form from her races this season. The subtle change in class and distance could be just what she needs to find her top form. Trip will be key though has a similar Plot position and shape to others in this field and could offer value of that group and from some common races this year. Aiken to Be Takin recorded a higher OptixGRADE than #2 FIVE ROSES LUNA on November 27^th; and finished in front of #8 BEING CREATIVE on October 21^st.