Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 NAUGHTY ALFRED has regrouped after a rough start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and WIDE trip on November 6^th. Their early speed from the races prior stack up on par noting the class drop returning today. The drop is less of a concern without a rider change and the year winding down with connections looking to place horses where they can compete. His early speed (Quad I) also fits to race competitively in today’s race shape.

#2 PACHI also projects another forward movement in his form cycle with progressive OptixGRADES/FIGS coming into this race in the third start of the cycle. #6 KREWE CHIEF is proven at this level and looks to prove himself right back to pair wins from the November 18^th race. As shown on OptixPLOT from Quad IV, trip is key from off the pace. 

Vanden Berg has had some time with #6 SAMARITA, a filly that can be a tougher one to work with and get right. When she is right, she fits at this level and shows up back to the condition of the October 14^th win and the placement first off the claim just 16-days ago. The race shape is tricky with the layoff returning runners in this field. #2 SHEZ RECKLESS could have the edge with her early speed (Quad III Square) and consistency in returning works over rival, #6 MANHATTAN LEGACY.

As far as the November 19^th common race, #5 YANKEE AGATE could be upgraded setting the pace (PRESSED) and stalked by the top two that finished together at the wire. She has run some of the faster races in this field and should land in the right spot to break through the maiden condition in this third start back off the layoff. In addition to her form, GRADES/FIGS, she has a favorable Plot position as a Quad I Square for today’s race shape.

Pompell has had success this meet sending out two runners in a maiden race and comes back with a similar pattern here. #7 AWESOME KITTY has the benefit of a race wheeling back from the November 19^th debut and slow start (SLOG) and WIDE trip. Stablemate #1 CHASING GHOST’S was entered and scratched from that race and shows works since. There will be a rider change and downgrade as Tavares was named on November 19^th and remains with #4 RAINY MOUNTAIN today.

Sullivan returns with a pair in this race and could be considered the horses to beat. #1 MY REDEMPTION has been holding his form and will look to keep up his current win streak. He has benefit from favorable trips and will require another trip today with the shift to the rail. #2 HARD N’SWEET ships into Hawthorne after dominating his rivals (B+ OptixGRADE) just over a week ago at Mahoning Valley and will be tested to hold his form coming off that top effort of the cycle on short rest. 

#6 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER could be dismissed in this race and has form and races in his career that fit as a contender. His form coming into this race could also be upgraded with some subtle trips starting with the layoff return on October 27^th at HS Indy and some excuse with the WEATHER conditions and high kickback impacting the results here on December 2^nd, the race just 9-days ago.

It is tough to get too creative with the runners with race experience as #3 BOONE’S PATH fits as a contender off current form and OptixFIG that stacks up strongly for this level and #6 BALADINE with a potential pace advantage – Quad I Square. 

As far as the first-time starters in this field, #2 MIDNIGHT ESCAPE was entered to debut back on June 2^nd for Todd Pletcher and Flavien Prat at Belmont in a Special Weight race though a vet scratch. She has gone through some changes since landing here on this circuit and now with trainer Javier Hernandez. The trade off with the more consistent works for #7 SUMMER COUNTRY shifts with local foundation for #9 GUST OF WIND working here at Hawthorne.

Value upgrade with #5 RED FLAG ALERT freshened from the November 12^th race at Churchill Downs starter allowance, a higher purse event during the “Claiming Crown” day of races. That effort could be upgraded here as well racing up close to a Fast/F O4S opening half mile and returns in a lower SpeedRate event. In addition, his form this year at HS Indy both on the main track and turf stacks up on OFR and has prior form here at Hawthorne on par as well. 

#10 CURRENT figures to take up the role as the favorite for his connections and class relief/back class in this race. His current races have been contested on the turf though has a main track win over this course and distance from April 17^th with a 98 OptixFIG for the win that stacks up above today’s OFR. The 94 OptixFIG recorded from #11 GO EMI also fits above OFR, however that number was a new top by almost 10 points and recorded at a longer distance making that number a questionable outlier.

#8 MEGAN’S HONOR has been holding his form (OptixGRADE, clean Past 3 Runlines) this meet and with progressive OptixFIG that fit today’s race though another move forward would be required to win. That carries to #7 GITA’S LAD, one that might require a bit more than the value than the morning line suggests. The shift in value should land with #3 FIRST MASAMUNE one with progressive form and should be sitting on a peak effort today with the test of that race being good enough (with the right trip) to win.

The Standard Plot shows a scenario of #7 SINGING ALLI with a potential pace advantage to clear on the front end to take this field gate-to-wire. Things become more Contentious on Surface/Distance and Plot position that could upgrade #8 GOOD MONGOLIA. In addition to the Plot, Good Mongolia recorded a solid 72 OptixFIG on September 30^th over this course and distance against a higher condition/purse and a return to that effort stacks up as a contender. 

The morning line projection on #3 IMAGINE GOLD keeps her in the mix based on the Plot position if just on value alone.

#4 SPENDER had the massive hurdle on November 20^th coming off the 1079-day layoff and is encouraging to see her back from that race in three weeks to suggest a move forward today. She was WARM that day and something to look for on the track. #6 WEEKEND PASS will find a different change in timing wheeling right back in a week with subtle class relief from the open company $5k claiming race. #5 RENTAL POOL has the current form, class and numbers to stack up on par with the surface switch the main hurdle as she has been most effective throughout her career on the grass.