« 12/15/2022 | 12/17/2022 » |
Fri December 16th, 2022 |
Download as PDF |
Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 12:55 PM CST
#4 MIZZEN MILLIONS returns to make her second start off the layoff with the class drop to the maiden claiming level. If there is a time to present a move forward, this is it. She can be upgraded with the return race chasing wide up close to a solid pace before losing ground.
Thurman returns with the pair, #6 WHITE CASHEL and #8 SURE SHOT ANNIE from December 2nd, a day where the WEATHER impacted the results. Sure Shot Annie can be upgraded further as she was heavily backed from the assigned morning line to suggest intent and compromised taking KICKBACK from the rail . That race this month gives her another look back at the lower $6250 maiden claiming level could present a move forward today under similar conditions with back OptixFIG above today’s OFR.
More obvious with #5 BALIMOS holding the edge over #3 PRETTY IN PRADO and #7 EVIE JEAN from that same common race; though will be tested with the route/two-turn distance today. #1 TANGO CITY could find the class change to her benefit though has struggled on the main track in the past and as a six-year-old mare does not hold much upside and one that requires the day to be her day.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 1:20 PM CST
Looking at the dynamic (OptixPLOT) #2 FLYING BUSINESS could have things her own way on the lead with the clear Quad I position. That pace edge is required for her to compete recognizing the lack of finish represented by the Circle and the NO_FINISH Keyword on December 3rd.
#5 TIME BREAK could find the right trip and first run on Flying Business. She projects to take up a stalk position alongside #7 SILVERA and #8 LA GUERRERITA (Standard Plot) with Time Break showing more finishing ability (Square) of that set in addition to higher OptixGRADE/FIG to present as a logical contender.
Some positive intent could be in play for #6 NOCTURNAL MISSION returning with a live rider change in this second start off the layoff and projecting move forward from the WIDE trip on November 27th.
#1 SUMMER LOVIN and #3 IRISH HALO have form at this level on par to compete with
a top effort, though the tendency to break slow (SLOG) has been problematic to
work a trip from off the pace – Quad IV. The “SLOG” has also been present for #4
HOPPESTRY could compete and get into the mix running back to her October 9th
race.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 1:48 PM CST
Noting the “Red” PlotFit and that should be considered while the visual seems straight forward. Looking at the Plot, the pace should be contentious with #5 SHANGHAI SILVER in form and keeping #8 PO BOY honest with those two taking up a Quad I role. Other in-form runners, #4 FRISCO LINE stepping up in class from the N2 win on November 27th; #6 DEORA STORE wheeling back in two weeks looks to stalk that pair as Quad II Squares. While any from this group could win, there could be more to this race outside the box.
With the “Red” PlotFit one can get “creative” with runners that do not necessarily standout on the Plot and should be overlooked to offer value and required compensation: #2 FAMA Y DINERO has shown progression with each start returning from the layoff. This will be his third start of the cycle and some excuses could be present with both the November 18th and December 2nd race days compromised by poor WEATHER conditions. He has back numbers and form from the spring that makes him a contender here on repeat.
The distance cut back
(SHORTER) has been projected for #7 BETTER THINK TWICE (contender) going
back to the start of the season. He will find that change today to sprint and
could be just what he needs to compete here paired with buried form that also
fits on par.
#3 KNIEVEL will also cutback in distance and wheel back in just
6-days. While he has current form at the level, clean Past 3 Runlines, the
intention is not as clear for this race with the timing and distance change and
could be a case they are running here with just a few race days left in the
meet and no real risk to take a shot and run.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 2:18 PM CST
Morning line favorite, #3 LORRAINE’S LEGACY is logical in that role with consistent OptixFIG and improving OptixGRADES as she makes her third career start. While she fits those obvious factors should have her as a short-priced favorite and with a deeper dive through the field she might not have that much of an edge to support the price discrepancy with others.
Going back to the October 15th race, Lorraine’s Legacy ran in a common race with #6 VOSTRA with the two both recording the same C+ OptixGRADE and 64 OptixFIG. Vostra was upgraded of the pair with the BTL effort even with the other factors being identical. Vostra did not have a chance to run her race with the trip as detailed in the OptixNOTES shown in the Past 3 Runlines on November 26th and overall still projects a move forward.
#1 SASSY KATIE finds a class change shifting to this circuit and from the statebred level at HS Indy this year. She is another on a progressive OptixGRADE/FIG pattern to suggest she can transfer her form and compete here shown with a similar Surface/Distance Plot position/shape to Lorraine’s Legacy. #5 LIL CARRIE D also returns to open Special Weight company with added ground that could be to her benefit based on the visuals (STRETCH) on the track.
Hawthorne Race 5 - PLAY OF THE DAY
Post Time 2:48 PM CST
From a form and pace (Plot) standpoint, #5 COAL TOWN ROAD should lack any excuse in today’s race. With that said, he can be tougher to trust making his 15th career start and one that has come up short as a heavy favorite multiple times.
#1 WICKED SURPRISE will make his belated debut here noting he was entered to debut back on April 30th at Tampa Bay Downs. He comes into this race with a pair of works in December and showing up for a barn that can pop with a first time starter. The debut stats are not as strong for Manny Perez sending out a pair of FTS in this race; #2 ELECTRIC CHARGE the slight preferential intent given the presence of Felix aboard.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 3:17 PM CST
As individuals, #4 SHI O’SHI and #8 ALMAFUERTE stack up as contenders with speed (OptixFIG) on par (OFR) for this race and capable of showing early speed (Quad I) and finishing (Square) ability. As far as handicapping the race, both could get involved with each other early and play a role with the “Fire” Contention and higher 50 SpeedRate.
That
scenario could upgrade #7 HER GOLD MINE, one that is arguably not the “best
horse” in today’s race though could find the dynamic and progressive form to be
just enough if lucky enough.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 3:49 PM CST
This is a competitive race where value should be present and required to play. That starts with the assessment of #2 KANITHAPPEN certainly capable though has been flattered by the race FLOW in his recent sprint races and lost ground late. In addition, his new connections will also place him slightly stepping up in class as another factor to consider with the number on the board.
The Plot position/shape should be taken subjectively with #4 K C’S FIRST B M W as losing the rider at the start on both June 15th and August 11th impacting his Plot here. His maiden win effort in July was solid and validated with a competitive race, B- OptixGRADE, and 73 OptixFIG at this level and returning from the 85-day layoff on November 4th. His buried early speed could present a pace advantage today as the lone “E” RunStyle horse with a moderate 38 SpeedRate - a longshot threat.
The OFR for that November 4th race was a higher 86-78 OFR than the November 26th event with a 83-75 OFR at the same race conditions. #7 JOHNNY UP ran in both races and fits logically here with progressive form at the level in his third start of the cycle. Trip could also land him in the right time and placed based on the visual representation (Plot) of the race dynamic. #8 C F V RED NOVA had the long 536-day layoff returning on November 26th and should have the fitness required coming back to a sprint from the route race last week and for his this start back off the layoff.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 4:19 PM CST
A competitive race to close out the card with potential prices to keep in the mix: #1 NOT VERY GENTLE is upgraded from both the TROUBLE+ trip on November 12th and racing against (X_FLOW) the dynamic on a quicker 8-day turnaround on November 20th.
Tavares picking up the mount on #2 GAGOOTS could be the difference maker given his “trips” this season going back to October 15th, a competitive race at the higher open claiming class level.
The Standard (current form) Plot shows the “grouping” of horses and the “bunched” up scenario could create a trip from off the pace for #5 IRISH MAJOR; one that does require price compensation as a deep closer though an upgrade in the exotic plays. #6 DELFT BLUE given the IMPROVE designation with the trip and 10th place run on November 26th where he was compromised at the start and showed more run than the line and finishing position suggests. The surface switch is a major unknown and follow a similar thought process with the meet coming down to the wire and running where available.
Fri December 16th, 2022 |
Download as PDF |
Full Card
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 12:55 PM CST
1-TANGO CITY drops sharply. She's making her 19th start
as a maiden. So far, she's been at her best on turf but that can change
dramatically at this level. 4-MIZZEN MILLIONS also drops. She's had only two
previous races and finished sixth in both but both were against maiden
specials. 5-BALIMOS moves up a notch and stretches out. She finished second in
her last two starts. Figures to display far better speed at this distance.
Seems likely to grab the early lead. Might stay there if unchallenged early.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 1:20 PM CST
5-TIME BREAK has had four races at the meet and finished
in the money in three of them. She'll be tracking the pace again today.
Guessing she'll run by them all. 2-FLYING BUSINESS looks like the best early
speed but her staying power is in question. She would probably have a better
chance at five and a half furlongs but five would be even better. Guessing
she'll lead early but run out of gas again. 8-LA GUERRERITA improved enough in
her second start of the meet to finish third. Only slight improvement off that
race would make her a top contender in this one.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 1:48 PM CST
4-FRISCO LINE can win right back. He’s gotten a little
faster with each passing local start. He scored his second victory in last and
has a great chance to make it two in a row. 5-SHANGHAI SILVER makes his first
start for a new barn. He’s been in great form. Lost his last at this level by a
nose after winning his previous start. He’s likely to be right there every step
of the way. 3-KNIEVEL finished third in his last two. However, those were route
races and, although I like runners turning back in distance, I would have to
believe that the distance of this race is too short.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 2:18 PM CST
3-LORRAINE’S LEGACY could be headed to the winner’s
circle. Beaten favorite in both races dueled for the lead through the stretch in
last and held for second, only a length behind the winner. Will face that same
rival today but think she’ll put the other filly away faster and hold onto the
lead. 2-TAVERN ran well in her debut despite needing the race and getting off
to a poor start. Runners from this barn usually need a start or two to reach
peak form. They scored with a $47 runner last week. Don’t ignore. 1-SASSY KATIE
raced well in both of her starts but both were against Indiana breds. Could
have a much tougher time in open company. 7-CANDY LOOKER is another worth
another look. She completes the sprint-route-sprint cycle while adding
blinkers. She displayed far better speed last time. Could finish with something
left.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 2:48 PM CST
7-SMOOTH ATTACK drops to his lowest level ever. Most in
this race are in poor form with the exception of a possibly vulnerable low-priced
favorite. This could be his spot. 5-COAL TOWN ROAD once again looks unbeatable but
I probably thought that for around 12 of his 14 races and he has lost every
time. I just can’t recommend betting him to win but obviously your call. 1-WICKED
SUPRISE has some decent drills coming into this race and his barn brings them
ready. Maybe.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 3:17 PM CST
The often-claimed 4-SHI O’SHI returns from a five-month
layoff but she’s been working bullets for her return, she has a history of
running well fresh, and her barn is having a strong meet. She won four of her
last six races. Could be ready for these. 8-ALMAFUERTE is another having a
great year. Her barn has been on fire for the last couple of months. She’s finally
running at her best distance. On or off the lead she’s going to be tough. 2-FANCY
EXPRESS turns back in distance. She tired in her first start of the meet but
that race should have set her up for this. Might finish fastest of all.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 3:49 PM CST
5-HURTS SO BAD drops. He’s been in pretty tough since
getting claimed for $10k in early October but did manage to beat maiden
specials to earn his first win. With the drop into claiming NW2, he might be
able to earn his second. 7-JOHNNY UP owns good speed. He just finished second
at this level and the runner that beat him came right back to win again. This
gelding could push the early pace and still finish with good energy. 8-C F V
RED NOVA didn’t race for a year and a half and now he’s making his harness-like
third start in less than three weeks. But he did run well in his first two
starts after that layoff. Figures.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 4:19 PM CST
4-BEHAVIN MYSELF looks like the one to beat. He’s been in
good form for a long time and he might find himself alone on the lead, although
a couple that are stretching out can challenge him early. Can take it all the
way. 5-IRISH MAJOR, unlike most in here, is a route specialist. This late
runner would have little chance if top pick gets an easy lead but could come
flying late in a pace duel develops. Not sure how 6-DELFT BLUE will run on
dirt, he never has, but he has been in fairly good form for awhile and he’s
dropping to meet his easiest field ever.
Fri December 16th, 2022 |
Download as PDF |
Jim's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 12:55 PM CST
This race is a very tough one to figure. Temps will be below freezing so the inside and speed are typically good early in the day. With that said, there are so many unknowns in this bunch due to changes in distance, class drops and overall inconsistency. Hoping that Mizzen Millions is one that is sent to the top in here. She has the benefits of being lightly raced so she hasn't formed as many bad habits as some others have. She has run longer in her first two starts and she did show a bit of early speed in her last. She takes the class plunge that many others are taking in this race and gets a rider change to Roman but have to hope she rates close and the pace is slow upfront for her to have a chance to run on late.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 1:20 PM CST
Almost picked Flying Business in here as she has the best speed of the bunch but her 0-16 record in the win column this year, along with having no excuse for not holding on when she got an easy lead at 5 1/2 furlongs last out is why I stayed away. Time Break will provide no value but is clearly the one to beat. She has a couple of victories on the year, has tactical speed to be able to rate close early, and gets the hottest riding jock in the colony right now in Tavares in the saddle. It's going to be very tough to defeat her.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 1:48 PM CST
There's really not a ton of early pace in here for a spot where speed should dominate at 5 1/2 furlongs. Frisco Line had been rating in prior starts but was running on too late. In his last, he was sent from the gate and dueled through the opening half. In the lane, he was the one to emerge clear and run on to the win. I don't see that other pace horse to challenge on the front end in here which should allow for Frisco Line to control things on the front and never look back.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 2:18 PM CST
I was on Vostra last time and can't give up after one really disappointing effort. She has gone a route of ground in each of her first two starts. In her debut, she was sent away at 43-1 and was moved prematurely to contend, while wide, against a much more talented field. Despite covering that extra ground she still split the field and was beaten only five lengths in the end. She was given a really odd trip in her last as she got away better from the gate and had the opportunity to make the top in a pace-less race. Despite wanting to go, she battled as her rider kept her back under a hold and fought her through the first three quarters. In the end she gave in an was well beaten. She gets the 10 lbs. bug in the saddle in here and the best route to go with the weight off in the saddle is to send. If allowed to clear the lead and relax into stride, Vostra can be in a perfect position to upset this field.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 2:48 PM CST
Another field that isn't great and likely won't provide any value but is likely to produce a single for multi-race players. Coal Town Road is long overdue for his first lifetime victory and while this is a $10k maiden claiming race, this field is the same quality or less than what he was facing for $7,500 or $6,250. He makes his second start since being claimed for a barn that has had a solid meet. He has speed in a race where there appears to be no others to challenge early and did run career best figure last out in his first off the claim with Centeno aboard. Have to think he is every bit of the 3-5 ML but there's no other in here that appears to be able to challenge him.
Hawthorne Race 6 - PLAY OF THE DAY
Post Time 3:17 PM CST
Have to go with all of the hot hands in this spot. Trainer Ralph Martinez has been great the past two weeks, jockey Javier Tavares has been great the last month and Almafuerte is a horse that loves this Hawthorne track. Add in that she is one of the few in here with early speed, she is running at a distance that she has won at 9 times in her career while being 25/33 ITM and she finds an easier bunch than last out and it all seems to line up for a victory.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 3:49 PM CST
This is likely the spot where things could turn from what would appear to be all speed to a closers race. This spot has a lot of early pace in it and much of the pace doesn't tend to go on late. While the early part of the card is going to appear to be upfront horses winning time and again, none of those races look to have nearly the amount of front-running style of horses in them. Even at 5 1/2 furlongs, there's the potential for half of this field of 8 to send for the lead. One would have to think they come back to the field in the lane. Last out, Johnny Up was left to chase a lone speed in Mud Island. While unchallenged, Mud Island ran on to win that race and followed it up with another victory last weekend. Johnny Up should be able to save ground and settle off the contested pace in here and I like that Felix is back for the return ride. C F V Red Nova wheels back quickly but figures in this spot as well. He ran well while sprinting in the race he was claimed out of and that was off a layoff of over a year. Don't dismiss his chances to run on late either.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 4:19 PM CST
Behavin Myself really looks to be the one to beat in here but some things jumped out about that last race from Hatchet Creek. Hatchet Creek is 10/16 ITM over this track and has typically been a sprinter. The stretch leaves some questions but that last start was a strong race and it coincided with the removal of blinkers. This barn tends to pop at times and make sure the watch the board as there have been a few instances this meet of horses taking a lot of action early for this trainer and following it up with a big race in return.
Fri December 16th, 2022 |
Download as PDF |
Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 12:55 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 1:20 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 1:48 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 2:18 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 2:48 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 3:17 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 3:49 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 4:19 PM CST
Fri December 16th, 2022 |
Download as PDF |
Peter's Simulcast Plays
Oaklawn Park Race 1
Post Time 12:30 PM CST
Oaklawn Park Race 2
Post Time 12:58 PM CST
Oaklawn Park Race 3
Post Time 1:26 PM CST
Oaklawn Park Race 4
Post Time 1:54 PM CST
Oaklawn Park Race 5
Post Time 2:22 PM CST
Oaklawn Park Race 6
Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Oaklawn Park Race 7
Post Time 3:18 PM CST
Oaklawn Park Race 8
Post Time 3:46 PM CST
Oaklawn Park Race 9
Post Time 4:14 PM CST
Fri December 16th, 2022 |
Download as PDF |
Harness Helper
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 1
T 6 So Not Cool 1 Hawaii 8 Magic Wanda
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 2
P 7 J One Twenty 6 Acrimony 5 Maddigal
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 3
P 6 Twin B Tipster 2 Sunshineatthebeach 5 Nightlife Seelster
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 4
P 7 Girl Scout Cookie 1 Beyond The Sea 4 Lock Bridge
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 5
P 6 Show Me Some Magic 1 Rave Review 2 Keep Watching
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 6
T 6 Shes Got Pizazz 5 Red Overbach 4 Three Desperado
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 7
P 9 J M Speak Easy 8 Ribbon Ridge 7 Some Cameo
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 8
P 1 Kcs Starlite 2 Dg Rainrunner 3 Kilee Rocks
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 9
P 6 Better be Donna 1 Shes Nun Bettor 2 Tuggingoncredit
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 10
P 1 Something Royal 3 E R Rhonda 7 Greystone Treasure