Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 WESLAN projected to move up with the class drop on November 25^th and did just that with the B OptixGRADE and place finish. He was slightly flattered closing into a Very Fast early pace with the assist from #1 MAN ON ATTACK briefly part of that early pace. That said, Weslan remains logical back under these conditions and looking to assist John Wainwright with a first win of the meet coming in the closing weeks. 

#5 RESPOND holds some upside and hidden early speed (Quad I Square) from just looking at the August 21^st running line alone. He was up close contesting the pace from the rail (DUEL, SAVED) and should show that tactical speed here on the class drop. Some further intent looks in play picking up first time Lasix and with the local worktab. #3 SOVIET STANDARD wheels right back in just a week from a slow start (SLOG) in Special Weight company and looking to move up off that race in softer condition today. He will be joined by his stablemate and first time starter, #6 RUSSIAN HAMMER. Vanden Berg will debut #2 LIGHTNING CASHES here and the barn already with a maiden claiming juvenile winner this season should be in a position to pad that stat.

#3 IMPERIAL MOMENT could have been compromised by the track conditions and KICKBACK on December 3^rd and will get another chance to compete at this N4 claiming level. By contrast,  #4 IRISH TUFF was able to avoid the kickback racing WIDE with his BLANKET finish and B OptixGRADE effort in that common race – and could be flattered off that trip. 

#5 GEMO RAIN could be upgraded as his form, Plot position potentially altered from the November 9^th event at Churchill Downs running against tougher and higher OFR. Timing wise could also be on his side returning from a 38-day freshening first out for Martinez. Gemo Rain showing early speed could make things tougher on the front end for Quad I runner, #6 JUST RIGHT MIKE. That contention could also include #7 MOVE ON OVER one that has been able to show early speed in the past, though has not been able to do so in his recent races with the poor starts. That contention would be helpful to #2 TWO WORLDS returning from the 50-day break with a class edge. He might require that edge giving up recency and also cutting back to a sprint.

The pace scenario shown with the “Sun” Contention and 38 SpeedRate includes three confirmed “E” RunStyle horses. #2 D’FEVER being one of those horses, though is one that is smartly returning to a sprint to support the ONE_TURN/SHORTER visuals from the route races this season. #1 PRINCE OF MAYHEM could be the “speed of the speed” and dangerous if allowed to clear as shown on the Plot. Also shown in the lack of finishing ability with the Large Circle requiring that trip and price compensation to play with that one scenario require to win.

#6 KING TITO is another one of those E RunStyle horses though shown with a “first run” type position on the Plot with the class drop playing a role in his position/shape. His RunStyle designation is based on the September 13^th Fan Duel win where he was well-meant and bet down making the EASY and LONE lead to win. His form this season has not been as strong and includes gate (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) bad habits. 

The pace noted, also creates an “off the pace” scenario with #8 RICHIESGOTSWAGGER being the most “obvious” of the group, creating value for #3 AGAVE KID and deeper for longshot, #7 DEVIL’S RULE.

The pace scenario is similar for this event with six of the seven sharing the EP RunStyle. That is slightly different as those EP Types do not necessarily “need the lead” to win. The class and pace edge of that group sides with #4 RAP STAR and #5 SNOOTY as show with the Quad I edge on the Plot.

In addition to Snooty, Watkins will also return with #1 A FAST BROAD from a 172-day layoff. She ran a competitive race here off the layoff back in May to suggest she can fire off the bench. While she is listed as an EP RunStyle, that designation is drawing primarily from her route races and should stalk as shown in a trip as suggested on the Plot.

The only non-EP runner, #2 ROCK THE BIRDHOUSE could be given an upgrade in that case and with the strongest late pace in the field, represented by the Large Square. Further intent could be in play noting she was scratched from an open $8.5k claiming race here back on December 9^th with perhaps the weather/muddy track part of that decision.

The race shape and Quad I position above the ParLine creates a “hidden” pace advantage for #3 TIZ APPROVED; one that might not appear to have an edge off the standard paper past performances. #1 DARK HEDGES showed early speed when taken slightly out of his running style on November 19^th (upgraded X_FLOW) with the place finish. He could find the right stalk-and-pounce trip as a Quad I Square should Tiz Approved falter (Circle) late and have first run on his Quad IV rivals. 

One of those Quad IV rivals, #7 STORMIN HONGKONG could be favored today with the win on November 19^th and making his first start off the claim for Broberg and likely to get attention (underlay) off that alone. #6 CHICKS FOR FREE also worth a mention as the chart/short comment could suggest he had trouble late and while he was herded it was not enough to suggest he was cost a better position. If he has any upgrade today, it would be from the RUSH into a Very Fast early pace with ground loss (WIDE) in the process. 

#4 TIME HEIST will find subtle class relief to run in this race and could be positive intent with that move by Perez and for a horse that has held his form this season (clean Past 3 Runlines/No Red Keywords) and still looking for his win.

This is a highly competitive race and player opportunity as it is tougher to find the standout “horse to beat” in this race. The contention of this field runs deep and even a case can be made for longshot, #2 ROCKET HOTSHOT wheeling back in just 7-days and with his strong late pace (Large Square) to close in today’s dynamic. #4 BUREAU should be a major player with the class drop from his races this season and back in for the claiming tag. While he has that class edge on his side, his current form (OptixGRADE/NOTES) is questionable, though has OptixFIG in OFR solid enough to compete. 

#6 FLEET OF HOOF will also find class relief off his races this season to suggest he can be upgraded off his form and C OptixGRADES this meet. He could present further upside compared to rival Bureau given the 48-day freshening and solid work tab returning for this race with a live rider change with Roman aboard. 

The surface switch makes #8 WATCHNTHEGIRLSGOBY a wild card in this race. He is an interesting runner all together making his debut earlier this year and that first start as a seven-year-old. It should be also noted he was entered in a similar #17.5k N2L claiming race on the AE back on November 4^th with those races shifted to the main track and clearly did not participate.

The timing coming back in 12-days off the November 20^th top effort was not the ideal for #3 MISTER CHARMING on December 2^nd. The trip was only made worse with the track conditions and taking KICKBACK. Following his form cycle and every other pattern, he can improve back to a top effort today and has shown he can handle the two-turn distance and compete keying off that 77 OptixFIG and B OptixGRADE. 

Keying off that November 20^th common race, #5 ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS is upgraded with the IMPROVE Keyword and returns to the same conditions of that event, the statebred allowance level exiting open company, higher race par/OFR, on December 4^th. 

The “other” Square, #7 FLASHY RICHIE returns to statebred company for the first time since September 24^th at Fan Duel Park. He showed run in that allowance race, though was not at the right distance for his best on the day sprinting six furlongs.

Consistency can sometimes be to a fault and that has been the case with #10 COOKIN ROSES recording the LONE and NO_FINISH OptixNOTES in her races this season shown in the Past 3 Runlines. She could find a similar “LONE” trip today based on the Plot, though that “fault” still must be considered and factored into the price on the board. 

With that lack of finish present on the front end, #4 AH LEAH could be in the right time and place stalking with first run. Her form declined here following the August 18^th win at Fan Duel Park and some upside could be projected today as she return for this second start back off the layoff. #8 SUPERSTAR DIVA could look for that same “first run” trip and back-to-back wins. She will make a slight class rise for this event, though has back numbers and class to support her as a contender here again from those May and June efforts. #9 HEY HEY lands in a similar Standard Plot to those rivals and while she is not the most consistent type, she fits on her best day and one that could be overlooked on the board. 

With those three sitting as Squares along with today’s 5.5f distance, that could make things tougher trip wise for Quad IV runners, #3 WANNA HAVE FUN and #5 PRINCESS CONSUELA on the win end.

1-MAN ON ATTACK seems like the best of the speed and the track seemed to favor front-running types yesterday. He finished fourth in his meet debut but was racing for the first time in two months. Should be able to display better sustained speed with that race behind him.  4-WESLAN showed little versus better in his first three races but he was dropped to this level for last and lost by only a nose. 2-LIGHTNING CASHES makes his debut off pretty good drills. His barn won with their only recent debuting maiden claimer. Can win with this one. 

5-GEMO RAIN couldn’t handle better in last at Churchill but he’ll be meeting much easier in this spot. He was claimed from that last race and drops for this one, which might be a cause for concern, but his new barn has been on a major roll lately. Gets the benefit of the doubt. 7-MOVE ON OVER finished with a ton of run when dropped to this level in last. He made up six lengths in the stretch but still had to settle for second, a half length back. But he did run into some trouble in that spot. He’s dangerous if he gets a clean trip. 2-TWO WORLDS takes a big drop. He’s also turning back in distance. Don’t like that he’s had only one workout in the six weeks since his last start but at this level it might not matter. 4-IRISH TUFF certainly deserves consideration. In his last six starts he has one win and five seconds. He’ll finish with a rush.

2-D’FEVER drops and turns back in distance. His good route speed could turn into a strong tracking style and late run at this level. Apparently these connections just bought him privately. It is interesting to note that his trainer prior to the sale was Hugo Rodriguez, trainer of possible favorite Richiesgotswagger. 8-RICHIESGOTSWAGGER tries to make it two in a row. Late runner has improved with each passing start since getting claimed by this barn. Would be no surprise to see him back in the winner’s circle. 1-PRINCE OF MAYHEM has speed and the rail. Speed was golden yesterday. He could be tough on the front end.

5-SNOOTY gets a weak nod She’s going to be facing a ton of other speed but think she’s capable of outlasting the rest. The fact that she won her debut in the mud is an added plus. 7-PALACE MAGIC is one of the many in here with speed but she has also shown the ability to run well from off the pace, just in case the speed bias disappears. She also runs well on off tracks. Likely favorite 6-SHEZA SAVAGE has also shown the ability ton run well on or off the lead. Finished third, soundly beaten, in her most recent start but she was in against better. Could easily be the best of these.

Gotta go with the speed. 3-TIZ APPROVED couldn’t handle much better or the turf in last but he’s back where he belongs. He appears to be quicker than any of his rivals and he gets the right rider to take advantage of it. 7-STORMIN HONGKONG has been claimed from his last three starts. He finally won his last at this level. He got claimed by a barn that wins with a high percentage of their first-time claims. Can make it two in a row. 1-DARK HEDGES is another claimed from last. He has been running competitively at this level and is another that was taken by a successful claiming barn.

1-WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR could be left alone on the lead. He didn’t show a thing sprinting in his debut at Fanduel but made every pole a winning one in last, his local debut. Might be able to get the same kind of trip today. 7-KEENE RESPONSE beat easy claimers to break his maiden in last but might be able to beat this higher class of claimers. He got claimed from last but keeps the same rider who was aboard for that maiden score. Can come flying late. 6-FLEET OF HOOF drops into claimers for the first time. He does own competitive speed. Might put it to good use at this level.

7-FLASHY RICHIE might be able to surprise. He finished third in all three races this meet since stretching out. The move into state breds could be just what the doctor ordered. 3-MISTER CHARMING must be considered. Most of his races have been sprints but he finished second the last two times he raced in main-track routes. 4-ASTI SKY takes on better but he is one of the few in here that has shown sustained speed and he is coming off a romp on an off track. 

10-COOKIN ROSES drew the dreaded 10-hole but she has been in good form and she’s quick enough to clear the field despite the poor post and at the short sprint distance could still finish with gas left in the tank. 8-SUPERSTAR DIVA tries to make it two in a row. She’s capable of running well in front or coming from behind. Might be able to do it. 4-AH LEAH needed last after six weeks off. She owns better speed than she showed in that last race. Could be an early contender. 9-HEY HEY showed some late run in last and had her best finish in months, getting up for third. Returns at the same distance. Might get the show dough.

Have to think this is another card where early races tend to lead more toward speed dominating. None in here are committed to the front and we have the unknowns of likely favorite firster Lightning Cashes but have to think Man On Attack has no choice but to send from the rail. He dropped in for the tag in his last and added Lasix and blinkers for that start. He was pushed along early but was beaten to the top by a runner named Snowmobile who also had speed. Snowmobile came out of that race to step up in class and wire a field in a MSW event. Man On Attack could be the one who is in the position to clear and wire this group.

A decent amount of pace in here is likely to lead to a runner closing ground late. Move On Over was far too far back early last out which was uncharacteristic for him but he still was able to run on late, missing by less than a length at the wire. In that field he also faced a larger group of horses. With a smaller field today and what looks to be an honest pace early, expect to see him rate a bit closer and run on by in the lane.

Really liked Richiesgotswagger last out and he didn't disappoint. No reason to think he won't be able to repeat that performance in here. Prince of Mayhem has speed but looks to be pressed by some others who should be challenging for the front end. Richiesgotswagger had to circle the field in that last start before running on to win. He should  be able to save more ground in here before making his closing move in the lane.

This is another spot where there appears to be a good amount of early pace, setting things up for a closer. Khozys Crown ran on late last out in a field of open $5k claimers. She runs for the conditioned $7,500 today which is an easier bunch than her just faced and also goes a 16th of a mile further. All of her victories have come at three quarters as she could sneak away at a price.

Not much along the lines of early pace in this race which would appear to set things up for Wildwood's Warrior. After a poor debut while sprinting against better in August, he was given a little bit of time away from the races before returning on the class drop last out. He added blinkers in his last and showed more speed as well. He responded well when asked in the lane and finished with some run. He should be sent from the rail in here and likely won't have to work too hard to clear either.

A few with speed in here as I'm hopeful trainer Max Quinonez runs both that he has entered in this race. You have to dig deep but that last time you will find a win from Flashy Richie was back in May and Felix was in the saddle for that start. He has run on late in his last few while facing open company as the state-bred return should also be beneficial. Let's see if we can catch him at a price.

Curious to see how things unfold early in here as the main speed of Cookin Roses gets stuck on the far outside and there's others in here that should keep things honest upfront. Princess Consuela had poor starts in two of her last three and was hung very wide in the race in between those two starts. With clear sailing she should be able to rally through the lane to contend at a price.

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