« 12/17/2022 12/19/2022 »
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun December 18th, 2022

Download as PDF

Emily's Analysis

Hawthorne Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Quinonez has a solid hand in this race sending out a pair of runners: #2 WATCHING THE WHEELS will find subtle class relief in her third start of this meet to the restricted $5k claiming level. She also reunites with Santiago, the rider that executed a PERFECT winning trip on November 12th and also had been key in a pair of FanDuel races back in June. #3 LINDALOUIMAGE also finds a class change from her races here this season and the restricted claiming win for $6250k on November 6th stacks up with a similar par/OFR to today.

Outside of that duo, #6 BOWS N LACE returns to make her second start of the form cycle and with that same subtle class change in the open company claiming event two weeks ago. Bows N Lace turned in a solid effort all things considered and noting the race winner, Kimberly Frances, a “much the best” favorite winning from off the pace. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Morning line favorite, #2 EASTER MUSIC is capable in this race, though is one that does not have any strong edge outside of current form. Trip also must be factored as often he can turn in his best run from off the pace and that comes into play when assessing value. Those same value concerns with #5 APPLICANT given his recent GATE issues that can be a sign of declining form. #7 CHOPPER had some buried form that had him competitive and overlooked at 80-1 on December 3rd and projects to be much shorter today. 

Looking for alternatives takes some creativity: #6 OLSON throughout his career has recorded strong figures that fit on any surface and with Haran bringing him back today second off the 244-day layoff with class relief and a positive rider change, improvement could be projected. #1 BORN AGAIN GEORGE could also find his peak effort here in the third start off the layoff and showing some positive intent with Felix back aboard. They were paired up on November 18th in that 84-day layoff return with poor WEATHER conditions and overall was not asked (NO_PUSH) to compete after a TROUBLE_S rough start and WIDE trip.   

Longshot, #8 HIGH HERO has number from earlier this year that would make him a strong contender in this group returning with those effort. This fall/winter season has not been the same for him, though has shown some run in spots and with a subtle “every other” pattern could be sitting on improvement here along with the flow upgrade from December 3rd..

Hawthorne Race 4

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 RIVER FINN could be a bit of a "stab" in this race though as far as class he has the edge over the others based on the placement of his races this year and the others in this field showing their more competitive races in restricted claiming company. With taking a “stab” the compensation is required on the board and should be there in this case. 

#1 CARTE BLANCHE is also deserving of a mention with the projected attention off his recent race record. There could be some concern that he peaked in his form cycle with the pair of wins and the visuals (PERFECT, HARD) in the manner of the way those races were run, however the connections have given him 42-days to recover off those starts and should be to his benefit. 

#5 WILD FOX and #7 YAK could battle for favoritism in this race. Wild Fox should get attention off the December 2nd trip where his start was compromised as he was unprepared as the gates opened and arguably unfair start. With that said, he showed run to recover though did flatted out late, which has been a habit throughout his races this season.

Hawthorne Race 5

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN moved up with the class relief to run at this claiming level and will look to build off those races stretching out in distance here. The morning line seems shorter than what will be required and reasonable to expected to drift from the public reaction on race day keying the off odds in those November events. 

The morning line could stick on #2 STORM’S REFLECTION today as he was favored under similar conditions here on November 20th and with Emigh in the saddle today for Perez. The barn will also return with #6 DARE GOES DA DEVIL one that has shown run in spots and some intent this season without much luck. That could carry right back into this event with the rider change and looking to cover their pace bases with Storm’s Refection up front and Dare Goes Da Devil from off the pace. 

Morning line favorite, #8 FUTURE VISION does project to fall into that “chalk” role based on his recent finishing position. Looking at the OptixPLOT he fits, however does not seem to hold any strong advantage over others in a similar position including, #4 MINISTRY OF ART.

Hawthorne Race 6

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 SHARP HERO was upgraded with buried form and showing run in a strong stakes event back in November at Churchill Downs. Her class took over and was dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) winning here on November 25th and will look to pair up wins back under similar conditions keeping up her eligibility and protected status. 

#7 PLUS CHIC was no match for Sharp Hero last month, though can be upgraded from her trip stumbling (TROUBLE_S) at the start and making a RUSH to the early lead and into a solid pace for that forward position. #5 HONEY MUG will be tested here with a slight class rise (similar for #2 KEEPMEINTHE MOMENT) coming back from the N1 allowance win. Comparing the two, Honey Mug has the benefit (and likely value) of recovery time with some hidden back numbers from the spring to support her moving forward today.

Hawthorne Race 7

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This is a interesting race where a scenario especially with the Standard (current form) Plot visuals and seven of the ten runners in this field positioned to the left of the y-axis. #1 GOING WITH STYLE is borderline as part of that group though finds some Surface/Distance separation. He also carries some upside returning to this circuit and route distance showing some run in spots with the WIDE trip and without the right handling (TACTIC-) in his October 28th layoff return effort. 

#10 STALLONE is part of that Quad I group though could hold some value compensation to keep in the mix keying off the Surface/Distance Plot position and even on Standard above the Par Line. The race shape and longer double-digit odds of #2 ANDREW THE GIANT and #7 PINEDALE keep those runners on the radar as Quad IV Squares. 

As individuals, both #5 FIRST MASAMUNE and #9 GITA’S LAD fit with their form this season and especially with the class DROP that has been projected on Gita’s Lad. With that said and noted with Plot/race dynamic both runners return on a one week turnaround and intention here could also be questionable from the December 11th common race.

Hawthorne Race 8

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 CATCHUSIFYOUCAN has run to her name this season and will likely try a similar approach (Plot/Quad I Square) showing up first off the claim, stepped up in class today for Becker. There is a back up plan with stablemate, #4 WILDWOOD BYE coming back to allowance company from the December 9th race and returning to the sprint distance to see her return to a stalk-and-pounce role – Quad II Surface/Distance Square. 

#1 MAUREENLOVESFRANK would require a lot of racing luck to win, though has been consistent at this level with the OptixGRADES/FIG this year to keep in the exotics mix. #6 STORMY EMPIRE and #9 IGGY BIGS are quality statebred fillies though find their class test in this race both back in against open company. The class rise is also in play for #10 JOLIE RULER one that could be flattered off the favorable (Red Keyword) trips and those races playing a role in the Plot position shape today. #7 CHROME ATTACK has some allowance form to compete on this circuit, though appears to prefer the turf and tested to run those top efforts again on the main track.

Hawthorne Race 9

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The card will close out with a full field and should present some value given the competitive nature of the race. The class drop and some excuses with the WEATHER conditions on November 18th and December 4th could upgrade #6 RUNNERS HEAT from those recent running lines and finishing position. Trip could also move her up based on the Plot/Quad I Square with lower SpeedRate for this race. 

As far as the pace, the lower SpeedRate could upgrade #2 MY LADY SLEW (bias aided maiden win), #3 SCAPITURE (170-day layoff/first start against winners) and #10 MUD HUT (no value) though that pair must still battle the Fire Contention rating and their individual hurdles as well. In that scenario, the “Fire” rating assists, #9 QUEEN EKATI upgraded on the Plot and should hold required value with those other runners in the group. In addition, her (Queen Ekati) form this season could be upgraded further with the sneaky November 25th effort. That 4th place finish was with ground loss and against the dynamic (X_WIDE, X_FLOW) and still continued to run on GALLOP+ after the wire. The connections are lower percentage all around and price compensation is still required especially returning without a rider change.

#4 SEQUAYA is upgraded on Surface/Distance returning to a sprint and also returning with a rider change following the TACTIC- on December 4th. She has a lot of other questions surrounding her overall though the number should again remain high in the double digits. #11 GOSHEN GIRL could also be sitting on a repeating form cycle pattern in the third off the layoff, a similar pattern going into her maiden win back on June 25th. She recorded a 64 OptixFIG with that maiden win, a number sitting in OFR to compete and in line with her rivals, #1 AIR WALKER and #8 MORNING LINE NEWS. #5 MAIDEN ROCK also fits in that OptixFIG group and could improve given the poor handling (TACTIC-) in her recent races, though intent and trip come into play showing up here in a sprint. 

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun December 18th, 2022

Download as PDF

Full Card

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 12:55 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

1-BEIRUT BEAUTY makes her first start off the claim and her first start since September. Usual sprinter stretches out in a race without much other speed. Could leave with the lead and never look back. 2-WATCHIN THE WHEELS just never fired in last but she had been in good form prior to that race and finished in the money in her previous eight starts, including winning twice. Seemed to have no excuse in that last race so giving her the benefit of the doubt and expecting her to bounce back with a good effort. 4-COUGER displayed far better speed when stretched out for last and led until the last sixteenth but still held for second. Could have more “wind” for her second trip around two turns and might last longer.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 1:20 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

At this level every horse is vulnerable but 2-EASTER MUSIC does look like the one to beat and might be worth a short price. He’s generally in the hunt when racing at this level and he’s meeting a field full of runners in poor form. Not sure where the last race came from but 7-CHOPPER just missed at 80-1 after leading most of the way. Not sure he can repeat that effort but would be tough if he could. 1-BORN AGAIN GEORGE displayed far better speed in last when making his second start following a three-month layoff. That kind of speed could keep him in the hunt throughout.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 1:48 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

8-ASKEW looks like the only one in the field with legitimate speed. He finished second in both local starts. Might be able to take this from flag fall to finish. 4-NORTHERN ALLIANCE raced primarily on turf and, although she has six main-track wins, those wins came on all weather tracks. Still, she’s dropping in class and meeting her easiest field in a while. Like her workouts since a narrow loss in last. Might get her first dirt victory. 6-RENTAL POOL, another grass specialist, had some dirt success early in her career. No guarantee she’ll handle the dirt but deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 2:18 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

5-WILD FOX was favored when dropped to this level for last but he was unprepared for the start and started the race much farther back that was expected. He recovered nicely to finish third but that race was lost at the start. Expect a far better outcome at a probable square price. 1-CARTE BLANCHE won his last two, three of his last four, and four of his last six. Stablemate of top choice is plenty quick but just as adept at coming from off the pace. Possible favorite could extend his current win streak to three. 7-YAK took some time getting into form after getting claimed by this barn but he appears to be on top of his game right now. Winner of last finished behind Carte Blanche the last two times they met but he might be able to turn the tables on that foe today.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 2:48 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

4-MINISTRY OF ART needed last but he still race well enough to finish third, in a key race, despite dueling for the lead much of the way. Had an easy workout in the month since but have to figure he’s still on top of his game. He’ll be meeting other runners with speed but this time he could be better prepared to put them away. 2-STORM’S REFLECTION is among the best of the speed. He was in too deep in last and hadn’t been in particularly for prior but he is still a threat to lead all the way. 8-FUTURE VISION finished second in her last two route races. She wasn’t close in either of them but is still in better form than the rest of this field. 

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 3:17 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

3-SHARP HERO looks tough but probably not unbeatable. Versatile filly will most likely be stalking the pace again. Even money winner of last just beat most of this field. Can do it again. 2-KEEPMEINTHEMOMENT turned out to be a good claim for this barn. She finished second versus allowance foes in her first start for them and came right back to score. Her speed figures suggest that she’s a bit slower than top choice but wouldn’t count her out. Love the consistent 5-HONEY MUG but she does seem to be a bit overmatched versus some in here. However, she is versatile enough to handle any pace. Could help fill out the vertical gimmicks.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 3:49 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

This race is wide open. Might as well take a chance with 4-BABA’S BOY. He won his last two, albeit versus easier. His price might be worth taking a chance. Obviously 6-CARLOS L isn’t the runner he used to be but what kind of runner is he now? He didn’t run a step in his last race here. Can he bounce back versus easier company? If 9-GITA’S LAD runs his race he wins this but he has been so inconsistent lately. Not sure what is going to happen.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 4:19 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

I figure trainer Scott Becker must like his recent claim 3-CATCHUSIFYOUCAN since he has two running in this race and this one will have the services of the barn’s go-to rider. Would imagine that rider Victor Santiago had some input. This filly jumps in class after winning two straight but her speed figures suggest she could be the fastest on in here. 4-WILDWOOD BYE, the other Becker runner, turns back in distance. She ran well in last, her first start against winners, but just ran out of gas late in that route. She could, however, finish with a ton of run with the turnback. 1-MAUREENLOVESFRANK comes off her best race in a while. She finished second in two of her four races at this meet while finishing fourth in the other two. Best gets her close.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 4:49 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

10-MUD HUT has been basically overmatched since breaking her maiden but she did finish second two races back, the last time she raced at this claiming price. The drop certainly helps. 6-RUNNER’S HEAT ran well early in the meet but they raised her in class for her last couple starts. Now she’s dropping back to the level where she was competitive. Can wake back up. Not sure how 2-MY LADY SLEW improved so much for last but she just crushed the maiden field she faced in that race, leading every step of the way. A similar effort would probably result in another daylight victory but since she never did that before, how can you expect her to do it again?

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun December 18th, 2022

Download as PDF

Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 12:55 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Bows N Lace - 6/1 2 Watchin the Wheels - 2/1 3 Lindalouimage - 4/1

A shorter field and not a ton of early pace to kick off the racing day. Bows N Lace is one of three in here coming out of an open $5k claimer to the conditioned ranks. This is a far easier spot as this one raced well off the layoff last out. Have to think she tracks the leaders in here early and gets the jump on the closers in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 1:48 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Northern Alliance - 5/2 6 Rental Pool - 9/5 8 Askew - 9/2

This isn't a great bunch and there's some unknowns with a pair that have spent the majority of their time on the turf taking class drops. Northern Alliance raced well in his last couple on the grass but has won six races on the main track in his career. He should rate a bit closer in here as there doesn't appear to be much along the lines of early pace in this race.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 2:18 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Carte Blanche - 7/2 7 Yak - 5/2 4 Two Cookie Rule - 6/1

Carte Blanche looked really sharp nearing the end of the meet at Fanduel racing and was able to carry that form over here this fall. All three starts have been solid and he finds a spot where he should be able to stalk the likely pace of Bourbon Delight and take over when that one comes back to the field.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 2:48 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Storm's Reflection - 4/1 4 Ministry of Art - 9/2 8 Future Vision - 5/2

There's no pace in here as Storm's Reflection looks to be the lone speed in the field.  He is really a one run type of horse as he needs to clear to win and will be sent early. If he lucks out and is able to catch a breather on the backstretch he may never look back.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 3:17 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Stopshoppingamy - 7/2 3 Sharp Hero - 5/2 2 Keepmeinthe Moment - 5/1

A quality bunch in a field that has quite a bit of early pace as well. Stopshoppingamy looks to make amends off what wasn't a great trip last time out. She had a good spot early before racing very wide through the turn and going even wider in the lane. All the lost ground clearly cost her but she was still able to finish third. Maybe we catch her at a little bit of a price in here.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 3:49 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Going With Style - 4/1 9 Gita's Lad - 3/1 4 Baba's Boy - 15/1

Looks to be a decent amount of pace in here which will hopefully set things up for one to come from off the pace. Going With Style ran on late while facing better here two starts back and should get a great trip in here. Two of his best recent figures have come at Hawthorne as the class relief may make the difference.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 4:19 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Catchusifyoucan - 4/1 1 Maureenlovesfrank - 6/1 5 Avasarala - 8/1

Scott Becker has two entered in here as you have to think Catchusifyoucan is the one he is higher on as Santiago typically rides his number one horse in a race. She has won her last two, being claimed out of an easy win at Churchill in her last. Look for her to stalk the pace early in here and get the jump on the late closers.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 4:49 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 My Lady Slew - 8/1 10 Mud Hut - 7/2 7 Frost Warrior - 6/1

Not a great bunch and also not along the lines of early pace in this race. Have to think the connections of My Lady Slew are looking for the same trip as her last where she made the top and never looked back. She draws favorably and Centeno has been riding well. Let's see if the lightbulb went on with the victory last out and she can repeat that performance.

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun December 18th, 2022

Download as PDF

Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 12:55 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Beirut Beauty - 7/2 2 Watchin the Wheels - 2/1 4 Couger - 9/2

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 1:20 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Easter Music - 9/5 7 Chopper - 5/1 1 Born Again George - 10/1

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 1:48 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
8 Askew - 9/2 4 Northern Alliance - 5/2 6 Rental Pool - 9/5

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 2:18 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Wild Fox - 4/1 1 Carte Blanche - 7/2 7 Yak - 5/2

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 2:48 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Ministry of Art - 9/2 2 Storm's Reflection - 4/1 8 Future Vision - 5/2

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 3:17 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 Sharp Hero - 5/2 2 Keepmeinthe Moment - 5/1 5 Honey Mug - 4/1

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 3:49 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Baba's Boy - 15/1 6 Carlos L. - 9/2 9 Gita's Lad - 3/1

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 4:19 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 Catchusifyoucan - 4/1 4 Wildwood Bye - 7/2 1 Maureenlovesfrank - 6/1

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 4:49 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
10 Mud Hut - 7/2 6 Runners Heat - 5/1 2 My Lady Slew - 8/1