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Sun December 18th, 2022 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Quinonez has a solid hand in this race sending out a pair of runners: #2 WATCHING THE WHEELS will find subtle class relief in her third start of this meet to the restricted $5k claiming level. She also reunites with Santiago, the rider that executed a PERFECT winning trip on November 12th and also had been key in a pair of FanDuel races back in June. #3 LINDALOUIMAGE also finds a class change from her races here this season and the restricted claiming win for $6250k on November 6th stacks up with a similar par/OFR to today.
Outside of that duo, #6 BOWS N LACE returns to make her second
start of the form cycle and with that same subtle class change in the open
company claiming event two weeks ago. Bows N Lace turned in a solid effort all
things considered and noting the race winner, Kimberly Frances, a “much the
best” favorite winning from off the pace.
Hawthorne Race 2
Morning line favorite, #2 EASTER MUSIC is capable in this race, though is one that does not have any strong edge outside of current form. Trip also must be factored as often he can turn in his best run from off the pace and that comes into play when assessing value. Those same value concerns with #5 APPLICANT given his recent GATE issues that can be a sign of declining form. #7 CHOPPER had some buried form that had him competitive and overlooked at 80-1 on December 3rd and projects to be much shorter today.
Looking for alternatives takes some creativity: #6 OLSON throughout his career has recorded strong figures that fit on any surface and with Haran bringing him back today second off the 244-day layoff with class relief and a positive rider change, improvement could be projected. #1 BORN AGAIN GEORGE could also find his peak effort here in the third start off the layoff and showing some positive intent with Felix back aboard. They were paired up on November 18th in that 84-day layoff return with poor WEATHER conditions and overall was not asked (NO_PUSH) to compete after a TROUBLE_S rough start and WIDE trip.
Longshot, #8 HIGH HERO has number from
earlier this year that would make him a strong contender in this group returning
with those effort. This fall/winter season has not been the same for him,
though has shown some run in spots and with a subtle “every other” pattern
could be sitting on improvement here along with the flow upgrade from December
3rd..
Hawthorne Race 3 - PLAY OF THE DAY
The “Fire” Contention and higher 63 SpeedRate for
today’s event includes, #4 NORTHERN ALLIANCE and #6 RENTAL POOL two
runner projected to take the bulk of wagering support and have each other and
the race dynamic to overcome.
Hawthorne Race 4
#3 RIVER FINN could be a bit of a "stab" in this race though as far as class he has the edge over the others based on the placement of his races this year and the others in this field showing their more competitive races in restricted claiming company. With taking a “stab” the compensation is required on the board and should be there in this case.
#1 CARTE BLANCHE is also deserving of a mention with the projected attention off his recent race record. There could be some concern that he peaked in his form cycle with the pair of wins and the visuals (PERFECT, HARD) in the manner of the way those races were run, however the connections have given him 42-days to recover off those starts and should be to his benefit.
#5 WILD FOX and #7 YAK could battle for favoritism in this race. Wild Fox should get attention off the December 2nd trip where his start was compromised as he was unprepared as the gates opened and arguably unfair start. With that said, he showed run to recover though did flatted out late, which has been a habit throughout his races this season.
Hawthorne Race 5
#9 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN moved up with the class relief to run at this claiming level and will look to build off those races stretching out in distance here. The morning line seems shorter than what will be required and reasonable to expected to drift from the public reaction on race day keying the off odds in those November events.
The morning line could stick on #2 STORM’S REFLECTION today as he was favored under similar conditions here on November 20th and with Emigh in the saddle today for Perez. The barn will also return with #6 DARE GOES DA DEVIL one that has shown run in spots and some intent this season without much luck. That could carry right back into this event with the rider change and looking to cover their pace bases with Storm’s Refection up front and Dare Goes Da Devil from off the pace.
Morning line favorite, #8 FUTURE VISION does project to fall into that “chalk” role based on his recent finishing position. Looking at the OptixPLOT he fits, however does not seem to hold any strong advantage over others in a similar position including, #4 MINISTRY OF ART.
Hawthorne Race 6
#3 SHARP HERO was upgraded with buried form and showing run in a strong stakes event back in November at Churchill Downs. Her class took over and was dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) winning here on November 25th and will look to pair up wins back under similar conditions keeping up her eligibility and protected status.
Hawthorne Race 7
This is a interesting race where a scenario especially with the Standard (current form) Plot visuals and seven of the ten runners in this field positioned to the left of the y-axis. #1 GOING WITH STYLE is borderline as part of that group though finds some Surface/Distance separation. He also carries some upside returning to this circuit and route distance showing some run in spots with the WIDE trip and without the right handling (TACTIC-) in his October 28th layoff return effort.
As individuals, both #5 FIRST MASAMUNE and #9 GITA’S LAD fit with their form this season and especially with the class DROP that has been projected on Gita’s Lad. With that said and noted with Plot/race dynamic both runners return on a one week turnaround and intention here could also be questionable from the December 11th common race.
Hawthorne Race 8
#3 CATCHUSIFYOUCAN has run to her name this season and will likely try a similar approach (Plot/Quad I Square) showing up first off the claim, stepped up in class today for Becker. There is a back up plan with stablemate, #4 WILDWOOD BYE coming back to allowance company from the December 9th race and returning to the sprint distance to see her return to a stalk-and-pounce role – Quad II Surface/Distance Square.
Hawthorne Race 9
The card will close out with a full field and should present some value given the competitive nature of the race. The class drop and some excuses with the WEATHER conditions on November 18th and December 4th could upgrade #6 RUNNERS HEAT from those recent running lines and finishing position. Trip could also move her up based on the Plot/Quad I Square with lower SpeedRate for this race.
#4 SEQUAYA is
upgraded on Surface/Distance returning to a sprint and also returning with a
rider change following the TACTIC- on December 4th. She has a lot of
other questions surrounding her overall though the number should again remain
high in the double digits. #11 GOSHEN GIRL could also be sitting on a repeating
form cycle pattern in the third off the layoff, a similar pattern going into her
maiden win back on June 25th. She recorded a 64 OptixFIG with that
maiden win, a number sitting in OFR to compete and in line with her rivals, #1
AIR WALKER and #8 MORNING LINE NEWS. #5 MAIDEN ROCK also fits
in that OptixFIG group and could improve given the poor handling (TACTIC-) in
her recent races, though intent and trip come into play showing up here in a
sprint.
Sun December 18th, 2022 |
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Full Card
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 12:55 PM CST
1-BEIRUT BEAUTY makes her first start off the claim and her first start
since September. Usual sprinter stretches out in a race without much other
speed. Could leave with the lead and never look back. 2-WATCHIN THE WHEELS just
never fired in last but she had been in good form prior to that race and
finished in the money in her previous eight starts, including winning twice.
Seemed to have no excuse in that last race so giving her the benefit of the
doubt and expecting her to bounce back with a good effort. 4-COUGER displayed
far better speed when stretched out for last and led until the last sixteenth
but still held for second. Could have more “wind” for her second trip around
two turns and might last longer.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 1:20 PM CST
At
this level every horse is vulnerable but 2-EASTER MUSIC does look like the one
to beat and might be worth a short price. He’s generally in the hunt when
racing at this level and he’s meeting a field full of runners in poor form. Not
sure where the last race came from but 7-CHOPPER just missed at 80-1 after
leading most of the way. Not sure he can repeat that effort but would be tough
if he could. 1-BORN AGAIN GEORGE displayed far better speed in last when making
his second start following a three-month layoff. That kind of speed could keep
him in the hunt throughout.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 1:48 PM CST
8-ASKEW
looks like the only one in the field with legitimate speed. He finished second
in both local starts. Might be able to take this from flag fall to finish. 4-NORTHERN
ALLIANCE raced primarily on turf and, although she has six main-track wins, those
wins came on all weather tracks. Still, she’s dropping in class and meeting her
easiest field in a while. Like her workouts since a narrow loss in last. Might get
her first dirt victory. 6-RENTAL POOL, another grass specialist, had some dirt
success early in her career. No guarantee she’ll handle the dirt but deserves
the benefit of the doubt.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 2:18 PM CST
5-WILD
FOX was favored when dropped to this level for last but he was unprepared for
the start and started the race much farther back that was expected. He
recovered nicely to finish third but that race was lost at the start. Expect a
far better outcome at a probable square price. 1-CARTE BLANCHE won his last
two, three of his last four, and four of his last six. Stablemate of top choice
is plenty quick but just as adept at coming from off the pace. Possible
favorite could extend his current win streak to three. 7-YAK took some time
getting into form after getting claimed by this barn but he appears to be on
top of his game right now. Winner of last finished behind Carte Blanche the
last two times they met but he might be able to turn the tables on that foe
today.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 2:48 PM CST
4-MINISTRY OF ART needed last but he still race well
enough to finish third, in a key race, despite dueling for the lead much of the
way. Had an easy workout in the month since but have to figure he’s still on
top of his game. He’ll be meeting other runners with speed but this time he
could be better prepared to put them away. 2-STORM’S REFLECTION is among the
best of the speed. He was in too deep in last and hadn’t been in particularly for
prior but he is still a threat to lead all the way. 8-FUTURE VISION finished
second in her last two route races. She wasn’t close in either of them but is
still in better form than the rest of this field.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 3:17 PM CST
3-SHARP HERO looks tough but probably not unbeatable. Versatile
filly will most likely be stalking the pace again. Even money winner of last
just beat most of this field. Can do it again. 2-KEEPMEINTHEMOMENT turned out
to be a good claim for this barn. She finished second versus allowance foes in
her first start for them and came right back to score. Her speed figures
suggest that she’s a bit slower than top choice but wouldn’t count her out. Love
the consistent 5-HONEY MUG but she does seem to be a bit overmatched versus
some in here. However, she is versatile enough to handle any pace. Could help
fill out the vertical gimmicks.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 3:49 PM CST
This race is wide open. Might as well take a chance with 4-BABA’S
BOY. He won his last two, albeit versus easier. His price might be worth taking
a chance. Obviously 6-CARLOS L isn’t the runner he used to be but what kind of
runner is he now? He didn’t run a step in his last race here. Can he bounce
back versus easier company? If 9-GITA’S LAD runs his race he wins this but he
has been so inconsistent lately. Not sure what is going to happen.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 4:19 PM CST
I figure trainer Scott Becker must like his recent claim
3-CATCHUSIFYOUCAN since he has two running in this race and this one will have
the services of the barn’s go-to rider. Would imagine that rider Victor Santiago
had some input. This filly jumps in class after winning two straight but her
speed figures suggest she could be the fastest on in here. 4-WILDWOOD BYE, the
other Becker runner, turns back in distance. She ran well in last, her first
start against winners, but just ran out of gas late in that route. She could,
however, finish with a ton of run with the turnback. 1-MAUREENLOVESFRANK comes
off her best race in a while. She finished second in two of her four races at
this meet while finishing fourth in the other two. Best gets her close.
Hawthorne Race 9
Post Time 4:49 PM CST
10-MUD HUT has been basically overmatched since breaking
her maiden but she did finish second two races back, the last time she raced at
this claiming price. The drop certainly helps. 6-RUNNER’S HEAT ran well early
in the meet but they raised her in class for her last couple starts. Now she’s
dropping back to the level where she was competitive. Can wake back up. Not
sure how 2-MY LADY SLEW improved so much for last but she just crushed the
maiden field she faced in that race, leading every step of the way. A similar
effort would probably result in another daylight victory but since she never
did that before, how can you expect her to do it again?
Sun December 18th, 2022 |
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Jim's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 12:55 PM CST
A shorter field and not a ton of early pace to kick off the racing day. Bows N Lace is one of three in here coming out of an open $5k claimer to the conditioned ranks. This is a far easier spot as this one raced well off the layoff last out. Have to think she tracks the leaders in here early and gets the jump on the closers in the lane.
Hawthorne Race 2 - PLAY OF THE DAY
Post Time 1:20 PM CST
Out of nowhere Chopper looked like his old self last time out. After a string of four horrendous efforts he nearly stole his last at 80-1 while winging it from the gate. Today we go a 16th shorter, there isn't much pace to challenge and Ulloa returns in the saddle. Have to think he goes unchallenged early and never looks back.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 1:48 PM CST
This isn't a great bunch and there's some unknowns with a pair that have spent the majority of their time on the turf taking class drops. Northern Alliance raced well in his last couple on the grass but has won six races on the main track in his career. He should rate a bit closer in here as there doesn't appear to be much along the lines of early pace in this race.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 2:18 PM CST
Carte Blanche looked really sharp nearing the end of the meet at Fanduel racing and was able to carry that form over here this fall. All three starts have been solid and he finds a spot where he should be able to stalk the likely pace of Bourbon Delight and take over when that one comes back to the field.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 2:48 PM CST
There's no pace in here as Storm's Reflection looks to be the lone speed in the field. He is really a one run type of horse as he needs to clear to win and will be sent early. If he lucks out and is able to catch a breather on the backstretch he may never look back.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 3:17 PM CST
A quality bunch in a field that has quite a bit of early pace as well. Stopshoppingamy looks to make amends off what wasn't a great trip last time out. She had a good spot early before racing very wide through the turn and going even wider in the lane. All the lost ground clearly cost her but she was still able to finish third. Maybe we catch her at a little bit of a price in here.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 3:49 PM CST
Looks to be a decent amount of pace in here which will hopefully set things up for one to come from off the pace. Going With Style ran on late while facing better here two starts back and should get a great trip in here. Two of his best recent figures have come at Hawthorne as the class relief may make the difference.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 4:19 PM CST
Scott Becker has two entered in here as you have to think Catchusifyoucan is the one he is higher on as Santiago typically rides his number one horse in a race. She has won her last two, being claimed out of an easy win at Churchill in her last. Look for her to stalk the pace early in here and get the jump on the late closers.
Hawthorne Race 9
Post Time 4:49 PM CST
Not a great bunch and also not along the lines of early pace in this race. Have to think the connections of My Lady Slew are looking for the same trip as her last where she made the top and never looked back. She draws favorably and Centeno has been riding well. Let's see if the lightbulb went on with the victory last out and she can repeat that performance.
Sun December 18th, 2022 |
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