Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 WESLAN projected to move up with the class drop on November 25^th and did just that with the B OptixGRADE and place finish. He was slightly flattered closing into a Very Fast early pace with the assist from #1 MAN ON ATTACK briefly part of that early pace. That said, Weslan remains logical back under these conditions and looking to assist John Wainwright with a first win of the meet coming in the closing weeks. 

#5 RESPOND holds some upside and hidden early speed (Quad I Square) from just looking at the August 21^st running line alone. He was up close contesting the pace from the rail (DUEL, SAVED) and should show that tactical speed here on the class drop. Some further intent looks in play picking up first time Lasix and with the local worktab. #3 SOVIET STANDARD wheels right back in just a week from a slow start (SLOG) in Special Weight company and looking to move up off that race in softer condition today. He will be joined by his stablemate and first time starter, #6 RUSSIAN HAMMER. Vanden Berg will debut #2 LIGHTNING CASHES here and the barn already with a maiden claiming juvenile winner this season should be in a position to pad that stat.

#3 IMPERIAL MOMENT could have been compromised by the track conditions and KICKBACK on December 3^rd and will get another chance to compete at this N4 claiming level. By contrast,  #4 IRISH TUFF was able to avoid the kickback racing WIDE with his BLANKET finish and B OptixGRADE effort in that common race – and could be flattered off that trip. 

#5 GEMO RAIN could be upgraded as his form, Plot position potentially altered from the November 9^th event at Churchill Downs running against tougher and higher OFR. Timing wise could also be on his side returning from a 38-day freshening first out for Martinez. Gemo Rain showing early speed could make things tougher on the front end for Quad I runner, #6 JUST RIGHT MIKE. That contention could also include #7 MOVE ON OVER one that has been able to show early speed in the past, though has not been able to do so in his recent races with the poor starts. That contention would be helpful to #2 TWO WORLDS returning from the 50-day break with a class edge. He might require that edge giving up recency and also cutting back to a sprint.

The pace scenario shown with the “Sun” Contention and 38 SpeedRate includes three confirmed “E” RunStyle horses. #2 D’FEVER being one of those horses, though is one that is smartly returning to a sprint to support the ONE_TURN/SHORTER visuals from the route races this season. #1 PRINCE OF MAYHEM could be the “speed of the speed” and dangerous if allowed to clear as shown on the Plot. Also shown in the lack of finishing ability with the Large Circle requiring that trip and price compensation to play with that one scenario require to win.

#6 KING TITO is another one of those E RunStyle horses though shown with a “first run” type position on the Plot with the class drop playing a role in his position/shape. His RunStyle designation is based on the September 13^th Fan Duel win where he was well-meant and bet down making the EASY and LONE lead to win. His form this season has not been as strong and includes gate (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) bad habits. 

The pace noted, also creates an “off the pace” scenario with #8 RICHIESGOTSWAGGER being the most “obvious” of the group, creating value for #3 AGAVE KID and deeper for longshot, #7 DEVIL’S RULE.

The pace scenario is similar for this event with six of the seven sharing the EP RunStyle. That is slightly different as those EP Types do not necessarily “need the lead” to win. The class and pace edge of that group sides with #4 RAP STAR and #5 SNOOTY as show with the Quad I edge on the Plot.

In addition to Snooty, Watkins will also return with #1 A FAST BROAD from a 172-day layoff. She ran a competitive race here off the layoff back in May to suggest she can fire off the bench. While she is listed as an EP RunStyle, that designation is drawing primarily from her route races and should stalk as shown in a trip as suggested on the Plot.

The only non-EP runner, #2 ROCK THE BIRDHOUSE could be given an upgrade in that case and with the strongest late pace in the field, represented by the Large Square. Further intent could be in play noting she was scratched from an open $8.5k claiming race here back on December 9^th with perhaps the weather/muddy track part of that decision.

The race shape and Quad I position above the ParLine creates a “hidden” pace advantage for #3 TIZ APPROVED; one that might not appear to have an edge off the standard paper past performances. #1 DARK HEDGES showed early speed when taken slightly out of his running style on November 19^th (upgraded X_FLOW) with the place finish. He could find the right stalk-and-pounce trip as a Quad I Square should Tiz Approved falter (Circle) late and have first run on his Quad IV rivals. 

One of those Quad IV rivals, #7 STORMIN HONGKONG could be favored today with the win on November 19^th and making his first start off the claim for Broberg and likely to get attention (underlay) off that alone. #6 CHICKS FOR FREE also worth a mention as the chart/short comment could suggest he had trouble late and while he was herded it was not enough to suggest he was cost a better position. If he has any upgrade today, it would be from the RUSH into a Very Fast early pace with ground loss (WIDE) in the process. 

#4 TIME HEIST will find subtle class relief to run in this race and could be positive intent with that move by Perez and for a horse that has held his form this season (clean Past 3 Runlines/No Red Keywords) and still looking for his win.

This is a highly competitive race and player opportunity as it is tougher to find the standout “horse to beat” in this race. The contention of this field runs deep and even a case can be made for longshot, #2 ROCKET HOTSHOT wheeling back in just 7-days and with his strong late pace (Large Square) to close in today’s dynamic. #4 BUREAU should be a major player with the class drop from his races this season and back in for the claiming tag. While he has that class edge on his side, his current form (OptixGRADE/NOTES) is questionable, though has OptixFIG in OFR solid enough to compete. 

#6 FLEET OF HOOF will also find class relief off his races this season to suggest he can be upgraded off his form and C OptixGRADES this meet. He could present further upside compared to rival Bureau given the 48-day freshening and solid work tab returning for this race with a live rider change with Roman aboard. 

The surface switch makes #8 WATCHNTHEGIRLSGOBY a wild card in this race. He is an interesting runner all together making his debut earlier this year and that first start as a seven-year-old. It should be also noted he was entered in a similar #17.5k N2L claiming race on the AE back on November 4^th with those races shifted to the main track and clearly did not participate.

The timing coming back in 12-days off the November 20^th top effort was not the ideal for #3 MISTER CHARMING on December 2^nd. The trip was only made worse with the track conditions and taking KICKBACK. Following his form cycle and every other pattern, he can improve back to a top effort today and has shown he can handle the two-turn distance and compete keying off that 77 OptixFIG and B OptixGRADE. 

Keying off that November 20^th common race, #5 ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS is upgraded with the IMPROVE Keyword and returns to the same conditions of that event, the statebred allowance level exiting open company, higher race par/OFR, on December 4^th. 

The “other” Square, #7 FLASHY RICHIE returns to statebred company for the first time since September 24^th at Fan Duel Park. He showed run in that allowance race, though was not at the right distance for his best on the day sprinting six furlongs.

Consistency can sometimes be to a fault and that has been the case with #10 COOKIN ROSES recording the LONE and NO_FINISH OptixNOTES in her races this season shown in the Past 3 Runlines. She could find a similar “LONE” trip today based on the Plot, though that “fault” still must be considered and factored into the price on the board. 

With that lack of finish present on the front end, #4 AH LEAH could be in the right time and place stalking with first run. Her form declined here following the August 18^th win at Fan Duel Park and some upside could be projected today as she return for this second start back off the layoff. #8 SUPERSTAR DIVA could look for that same “first run” trip and back-to-back wins. She will make a slight class rise for this event, though has back numbers and class to support her as a contender here again from those May and June efforts. #9 HEY HEY lands in a similar Standard Plot to those rivals and while she is not the most consistent type, she fits on her best day and one that could be overlooked on the board. 

With those three sitting as Squares along with today’s 5.5f distance, that could make things tougher trip wise for Quad IV runners, #3 WANNA HAVE FUN and #5 PRINCESS CONSUELA on the win end.