Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 DASH TO THE CASH is a longtime maiden, though could just land himself in the right time and place to breakthrough the condition in the closing days of 2022. He comes into this race with OptixFIG in today’s OFR and current B- OptixGRADES showing consistency and higher than others at the Special Weight level.

Both #1 WILDWOOD DREAMER and #8 KISS N BIZ will shift to take on colts and geldings with the value siding with the latter.

#9 ROCKET MAN ATTACK is upgraded on OptixPLOT as a Quad I Square above the ParLine for today’s race shape. Class wise this could be seen as a lateral move exiting open company maiden claiming races this season. He has plenty of races to date that make him tougher to trust on the win end with value required even with the pace edge. The lightly raced, #7 KRUELESS still must show more though given a mention as there has been subtle race-to-race progression.

#8 FIGHT ON holds the class edge with the drop coming back to Hawthorne and the main track. Those changes upgrade him in today’s field and for today’s dynamic as a solid Quad I Square with the lower 12 SpeedRate. 

Looking for value: #6 EMOJI GUY comes into this race with buried form that could be overlooked judging his running lines and finishing positions alone. He has a clean Past 3 Runlines without “Red” and a sneaky good effort (B- OptixGRADE) with the December 9^th race finishing in a BLANKET at the wire. #1 FIXICO also has buried form going back to October 16^th with TROUBLE and projected to IMPROVE going forward. A case can be made he has not had that chance to step forward with the poor ride (TACTIC-) and off track along with his usual gate issues (SLOG) and WIDE trip.  

#2 BORN AGAIN GEORGE found his old form recording a strong 87 OptixFIG in the December 18^th win. They will wheel right back once again in this third start this month and while a repeat effort has him competitive right in line with FIGHT ON value should be considered as he projects to be the shortest number on the board in this races this year. 

As a Quad I Square with the lower SpeedRate, #8 HIGH BROW could survive the “Fire” Contention and stay on as the “best of the speed” in today’s race shape. With that said, he has benefit from PERFECT trips this year and that is playing a role in his Plot position/shape that could open the door for others.

#4 AHEADOFTHEGAME was upgraded on a progressive pattern heading into the December 2^nd race, though unable to run his race that day given the ride (TACTIC-) including ground loss under tougher WEATHER conditions and can be upgraded today. #7 SPALDING STROLL was a bad actor in the GATE back on December 2^nd and the cold air and heavy KICKBACK impacted his trip. He has back numbers and form to compete at this class level. The winner of that December 2^nd event, #6 PAPA’S LUCKY SEVEN was able to avoid the kickback and showed a big CLOSE under a smart ride. They will return here off that new top OptixFIG and with a rider change and value should be considered with that change as well as a deep closer where trip, pace and timing is still key. 

The Plot shows a significant pace advantage for #4 DUST DANCER clear in Quad I above the Par Line. That edge is supported with form this season holding OptixFIG in OFR and lacking “Red” in the OptixNOTES/Past 3 Runlines.

#3 DEORA STORE could end up a shorter price (no value) in this race based on speed figures and finishing positions, though lacks a pace edge over others in here and will be stepping up in class from the restricted claiming events this season. His presence in this race taking wagering support could allow for some value to shift over to #5 SENOR MIKE, a recent maiden Special Weight winner that has shown progress and improvement with each start. #1 DEMAND RANSOM has class concerns though is on an “every other” pattern coming into this race with his OptixFIG from both November 6^th and December 2^nd stacking up in today’s OFR. 

Overall there is not much between many in this field where the board, on track visuals can be used to make decisions on play. #1 TU ROYAL and #10 CAT ROYALE are tough to split with a similar RunStyle (Quad 1) and form coming into this race. They fit with their tactical speed and class with Tu Royal running against open Special Weight on December 3^rd - and Cat Royale making her first start in maiden company for today’s conditions. The class change will also be in play for #9 JOYZILLA one that could even hold a a subtle class edge recording a B OptixGRADE in the Showtime Debutante last month. Her off the pace running style has played a role in her finishing positions and factored into her still running at this level. 

#11 LUTION is worth a mention coming back for her second start. She showed run in the December 3^rd debut closing inside (SAVED, CLOSE) though after the wire the rider lost control falling off though not before making a lot of contact with the inner rail bouncing around. This is mentioned with the physical nature of that race and something that was not picked up in the short comment or chart and is important public information. 

The few non statebred runners in this field could have some edge with intention given eligibility: #5 HAPPY QUEST stepping up in class through did show in the December 2^nd debut all things considered. #6 THIS IS ANFIELD. She did not show much in her October debut (C OptixGRADE) at HS Indy, though that race held a higher OFR to today’s event and did produce two next out winners. #8 TAVERN will cut back to a sprint today and has shown poor gate habits (VSLOG, SLOG) in both starts this season.

The race shape can upgrade #11 C F V RED NOVA (especially on Surface/Distance Plot) sitting a trip stalking right off projected pacesetters, #6 COAL TOWN ROAD and #7 THE LAST FACT. Some value should sit with C F V Red Nova falling into a similar trip as #10 TRIPLE CHROME, one that has finished behind others in this field. #4 EVIDENCE has softer speed figures this season to offset the number on the board, while some upside in this spot showing up in form and positioned as a smaller Quad I Square. 

#1 TAPIT SAM fits as a contender recording a B OptixGRADE at this level on December 10^th and holding form this season keying off the BTL effort in his November 12^th race despite the 5^th place result. 

The Plot does not appear favorable for #8 TEA AFTER BALLET as a Quad IV Circle, though the change to a sprint (SHORTER) from the route races this season is on his side to support as a longshot in this race. By contrast, the “shorter” distance of this race could present a hurdle for #3 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN and #9 DARE GOES DA DEVIL in terms of trip cutting back to a sprint. As individuals they have shown run at times this season and still looking for that first win of the meet.  

#7 SIVAKO debuted over the main track back in June and recorded an OptixFIG in line with the turf figures that followed to support him shifting his form back to the dirt for this race. He has a class edge from those Kentucky races earlier this year and with a competitive effort in the local WIDE trip show finish on September 30^th. His stablemate #1 FEVER NATION leads off the statebred group and one that has shown progress race-to-race. 

Intent also looks in play for Sivako keying off his local works returning from the two month break. Some positive works could be projected with #8 RICKY’S BEST showing up for his first start. The intent to debut on this circuit extends back to the spring with a mix of speed and stamina in the published works. The work tab is not as consistent for #9 AMERICAN MOON going out for Rivelli, a barn that has stronger debut numbers and likely to receive attention of that in this race. The work tab is a little more consistent for his stablemate #13 ACT A FOOL; one that will require racing luck to draw in off the AE and with the outside post should he participate.

Hernandez appears to have #8 COMISKY PARK back in form, something that had been some concern leading up to November 25^th going off the gate issues and visuals. His top form stacks up with OptixFIG on par and of the group has consistently recorded some of the higher figures in this field and done so at today’s allowance condition. Trip could also be on his side give today’s race shape. He has shown tactical speed in the past, a change from today’s Quad II/IV Square (finishing ability) Plot position. 

The “Fire” Contention is supported by the OptixRPM showing seven of the nine in this race sharing the E or EP RunStyle. #9 HELA shows the least amount of changes from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance Plot remaining as a Quad I Square in both conditions. That shift comes into play for both #2 ON K P and #7 BASEBALL POLITICS as far as shape (finishing ability) and Plot position (PC RunStyle) for #5 LAKE MILLS.

#8 DREAM KEEPER is logical in this race returning to make his second start off the layoff to the conditions of the BLANKET finish back on November 4^th. His class and form stack up consistently at this level. 

Tough to ignore, #9 DANVILLE with his Large Square presence on the Plot. Class will be tested coming off the wins this season stepping up to a higher allowance condition and purse structure here. By contrast, #4 DYNABLUE has the OptixFIG and class for today’s allowance condition, however, has struggled to transfer that form required to compete to the main track and surface remains his main hurdle again today.

The “wild card” #5 DREAM ISLAND returns from the 419-day layoff with just one published work this season. Going back to last year, he showed progression race-to-race and numbers recorded here at Hawthorne that stack up in today’s OFR. He could still present a move forward keeping in mind those figures recorded in his juvenile season and comes back with maturity from the break for this race.

6-DASH TO THE CASH should finally graduate. This appears to be the easiest field he has ever met. Trouble cost him badly in his last two and he still barely lost. Should end the year on a high note with a full head of steam. 8-KISS N BIZ is much quicker than top choice. However, he’s been fading late at six furlongs while this race is a sixteenth longer. Could possibly hang on if he secures an easy lead but don’t really expect that to happen. 4-J J’S SOLUTION finished behind top choice every time they met but he still often finishes in the money. That same scenario could play out again today.

8-FIGHT ON was claimed for $40k less than a year ago, had some good races versus decent rivals, and now drops to the $5k claiming level after one terrible race at Turfway. So, what do you think? Is this horse really that bad right now or are they just trying to scare everyone off and get him eligible for starter allowances for the next two years? 2-BORN AGAIN GEORGE just put a couple good races together. He beat a field similar to this in last after finishing third in his previous start. He’s meeting many of the same rivals he just beat. Might be able to do it again. 5-CHOPPER is probably the quickest of these. He has the added advantage of a “bug” rider and his 10-pound weight allowance. That just might make the difference.

8-HIGH BROW will likely be sent right to the lead. He’s had five starts; winning three and finishing second in the other two. He wasn’t able to hold off the late-running Papa’s Lucky Seven in last at this level and distance but he might be able to today. 6-PAPA’S LUCKY SEVEN has been in pretty good form the last couple months. He flew by top pick in last to take home first prize and pair about $46 doing it. Could unleash a repeat performance but pay a lot less doing it. 2-ROCKET HOTSHOT benefitted from the stretch in distance and the apprentice rider in last. A late surge got him home in front. He’s taking on a bit better here but the recent two-turn experience could greatly help his chances today.

4-DUST DANCER went off as the odds-on favorite in last but tired late after dueling for the lead. Today, however, he doesn’t appear to have any serious competition for the front end. Guessing he’ll grab an unchallenged lead quickly and never look back. 5-SENOR MIKE took a few races to pull it all together but he finally did in last and scored his maiden victory. He’s not as quick as top choice but he should be quick enough to lead the second tier of runners. They could be racing one-two all the way around. 3-DEORA STORE has been racing competitively in open claimers. The move back into state breds could be just what the doctor ordered.

10-CAT ROYALE was favored in both of her starts but faded late in each. Today, however, she’s cutting back in distance. She’s among the best of the speed. Could finally finish with something left. 1-TU ROYAL raced competitively in her debut. She displayed pretty good speed in that spot and could turn out to be the quickest of these. Runners from her barn often improve with experience. She could be tough on the front end. 9-JOYZELLA was a surprise second-place finisher in the Showtime Deb and ran competitively in the Debutante. She’s facing maidens today but many of those she was facing in those stakes are also in this race. But, she comes from out of it an the pace of this race could set up well for her. 3-CANTOO has been quietly competitive while facing many of these fillies. Wouldn’t ignore.

11-C F V RED NOVA drops to win and possibly get claimed. This runner was claimed from her first start of the meet which happened to be his first race in nearly a year and a half. He ran well in all three of his races here but probably wouldn’t be successful at other venues so the drop makes sense. 10-TRIPLE CHROME also drops. It took him 10 races to break his maiden and he hasn’t shown much in his two races since so, for him, the drop also makes sense. Could be far more productive at this level. 1-TAPIT SAM showed little in his first race after getting claimed by this barn but was far better in last when he closed well to narrowly miss. Gets more real estate to work with today. That could make all the difference.

Have to give 1-FEVER NATION the edge despite going from Illinois breds into open company. He’s fresh off a good second-place finish in the Futurity. The former Gov’s runner had been working bullets going into the Futurity and figures to be primed for this, the fourth start of his career. First timers 8-RICKY’S BEST, 13-ACT A FOOL and 9-AMERICAN MOON are all bred well and sport pretty good drills. 14-STAR NATION made up a ton of ground to finish third behind a surprise winner in his debut. Might fly under the radar if he even gets into the race but should be worth another look.

7-BASEBALL POLITICS owns good speed and just won his last utilizing that talent. However, it’s his ability to run well from off the pace that makes him especially dangerous here. Most of the runners in this race want the front end so a runner that can track the pace and finish with something in reserve might hold the advantage. 8-COMISKY PARK can also close but his best closing moves came on turf. He usually displays good speed on dirt. If Emigh gets him to relax he could run by them all late but it’s just as likely that he’ll tire in a multi-runner speed duel. 5-LAKE MILLS is usually in the hunt. But he finished fourth in four of his last eight races. Think he can be part of the vertical gimmicks but not sure he’s capable of winning this.

It’s a tossup but have to give 8-DREAM KEEPER a slight edge over 9-DANVILLE. Danville has been having a better year as far as wins and money earned but he has mostly been meeting easier rivals. He did beat a good starter field in last but Dream Keeper has been facing some pretty salty rivals. On the other hand, it seems like a chore getting Dream Keeper fit. He’s fresh in almost every race, with a month or more between starts so you never quite know if he’s 100% ready. Tough call. 6-ASTI SKY is in pretty good form and he crushed a field two races back that was contested on a muddy track, a distinct possibility for today’s races.

No locks in this race but 6-MUD HUT does seem most likely. She finished second in two of her last three and the “mud” in her name is certainly good for a hunch play. 8-RUNNER’S HEAT stays at the right level. She finished a half length behind top choice in last but also second the only other time she raced at this level. 7-FRIEND figures. She’s versatile and she finished second in three of her four races that were contested on off tracks.

14-FRISCO LINE will be tough if he draws in despite having the outside post. Clear winner of last two owns enough speed to get good position quickly. The extra distance of this race should only benefit him by giving him more real estate to work with. 8-CHICKS FOR FREE drops. It’s likely that this is the easiest field he has ever faced. He finished fourth in last two but just might be able to dominate this group. 9-HATCHET CREEK could surprise. He’s completing the sprint-route-sprint cycle. Like the speed he showed going long in last before the fade. He could finish full of run at this long sprint distance.

If any day is going to be the day for Dash to the Cash this has to be it. The distance suits, there is enough pace to keep things not only honest upfront but also likely contested and this one has been running his best figures this meet. Have to think he can settle back in here, save ground, and roll on by in the lane.

This is a really scary spot because Fight On should win by a massive amount but this is also such a massive class drop from where he was claimed that it raises a lot of red flags. I'm not going to be scared off though as this owner has had more than their share of success, Emigh is in the saddle and either the horse wins and gets claimed, or wins and is starter eligible for the next two years. I expect to see the win and get claimed. None of the others in this field are great and clear sailing should be the only thing needed for a victory.

There appears to be a good amount of pace in this race which could compromise the chances a bit of High Brow from the outside. He's the most talented in the bunch but I think things set up for Papa's Lucky Seven to repeat. The one concern for me is that he doesn't get Tavares in the saddle (who is done for the season) but while Ulloa has struggled for victories, it is never due to a lack of effort. Let's see if he can get this one rolling late.

Dust Dancer should be a pretty solid favorite in here but I worry that the connections of Senor Mike send that one and compromise the chances of both horses. The Kirby barn has been very good in recent weeks and this is the time of year to step horses up from lower level claimers into try these state-bred allowance races. Deora Store has been good over the last three races and should be able to settle back early and come running in the lane.

Everyone at Hawthorne is always happy when trainer Ida Spagnola wins as she works her tail off with her horses. She won a pair of races the last weekend we raced and this is another that has been knocking on the door for a victory. Both Cat Royale and Tu Royal have potential to duke things out upfront as Joyzella should be able to settle early and close quickly late.

This is a  curious race as the top contenders are stuck on the far outside. With only a couple likely to show speed, this may be a field that is tough to close into late. With that said, the post draw and running style may give Evidence a chance at a price. He has the ability to sit in the second flight early and has been running on in the lane in his last couple. The added distance off those races should only benefit him in this spot.

Giving Comiskey Park one last chance as he really should have gotten past this level earlier in the meet. The key for me here was that Emigh chose this one over Baseball Politics, a horse he rode to a solid score last time out. Comiskey Park was allowed to get too far back early in his last couple but in the races Emigh has ridden him, he tends to rate much closer to the early pace.

The outside two in here seem to be the best fit for this spot as each come off good races around two turns. Danville may be the slightly better price as he makes his second start off the claim. He was a game winner in his last and should find enough pace in here to allow him to settle early and make one move in the lane.

Despite Mud Hut likely being sent away as a heavy favorite in here, there really isn't a huge difference amongst those in this field. The rider change and added distance should help the chances of Maiden Rock as she comes off one of her better efforts on the year last time out. The added 16th should help and the removal of Lasix two races back may have been beneficial for her.

Shortening to a sprint may help the price on Behavin Myself and I'm hopeful the distance isn't too short. At 6 1/2 furlongs there should be enough time to get into the race as the pace should be honest upfront. He has run well over this track in eight starts and figures to be closing quickly in the lane.

P 3 Allstar Finest 5 Rockadella 6 Tesla Power

P 3 Mach My Kiss 2 Wildcat Delight 4 Kounnis

P 6 Snow Shark 1 Voluptuous 3 Casimir Swamp Girl

P 5 Fiery Shadow 8 Windsun Mojito 6 Im On The Edge

P 3 Getitgetitgotit 8 Ribbon Ridge 5 Ellaonthebeach

P 3 Emmy Lou Hayes 1 Jm Betonsix 2 Come Roll With Me

P 5 Sly Eleanor 1 Lock Bridge 6 Karma Seelster

P 2 Magic Shadow 3 Hashtag Money 4 Juju Hanover

P 8 Dabarndawgswatchin 1 Jks Rollin Baby 3 Need To Breathe

T 10 Hp Running Mass 3 Heavensdor Hanover 5 Cascade