Handicapper Tips & Picks

Robertson has a solid hand in this race sending out a pair of runners: #6 BOAT SONG comes back from the 171-day layoff holding the highest recorded speed figures from those with experience in this field. He also has local experience and returns to Hawthorne from some key races out of town.

Stablemate #7 RUNAWAY JACK will make his debut in this race and not uncommon for this barn to debut horses late in the year. Fellow first time starter, #8 ANCIENT MAN could also hold intent for the connections with a steady series of recent works and that intent extending back to show published moves in the spring. 

#5 MAGAWISH is worth a mention making his belated second start noting he was entered in a turf sprint here back on October 9^th though was a late vet scratch at 44-1 that day.

The distance change for #11 MORANT is obvious, though the class change is more subtle with his races here this season contested at a higher race par. In addition, Morant had adversity with the WEATHER conditions and TRAFFIC trip on November 18^th and also had to deal with KICKBACK after stumbling at the start (TROUBLE_S) on December 4^th. 

Many of the runners in this event return from the December 16^th common race, a race that was run in the snow, poor WEATHER conditions that did impact the runners and the results. #7 UNCLE DICK being one of those runners that was not asked for run and off the visuals can IMPROVE today. They will return with the blinkers back on and could be intent along with buried form from November 20^th.  #8 CHIEF MYSTIQUE also has buried form as he returns to the maiden claiming class level from that November 20^th common race. Chief Mystique was upgraded as part of the Very Fast early pace and on that day was making his first start back off a 101-day break and is now in his third start of the form cycle. 

The early speed shown by #9 WICKED SURPRISE on December 16^th is noted where a potential pace advantage could be present. As noted with the WEATHER, he was able avoid some of that impact showing early speed (PRESSED) though lacked stick (NO_KEEP) when required and must move forward here.

#5 WILDWOOD POSSE returned from the layoff on December 9^th wearing front wraps for the first time that day. That was noted along with a vet scratch from a $25k N2L claiming race on November 18^th. The front wrap removal could suggest positive intent and upgrade with further intent in timing to wheel back in three weeks and keep her protected here. The December 9^th four horse field played against rival #3 BEG BORROW N STEAL especially with the sprint distance, off-track conditions, and her tendency to break slow/SLOG. 

Kirby will return with a pair leading with #9 QUILTING PARTY a logical type given her current speed figures and form this meet in against open company. #2 RAINY MOUNTAIN also comes into this race with current form and figures, though will be tested as she steps up to take on winners. Class will also be a test with #6 SWEET FRAULINE returning to this statebred allowance condition, something of a lateral move from the open company races with the similar OFR as today’s event.

#1 CINDY’S G MAN can be upgraded as he makes his second start off the layoff returning under similar conditions to the December 10^th race. Not only was the 69-day break in play, but he also made a RUSH into a fast pace (X_FLOW) staying on as the BOS (best of the speed) in that third place result. Watkins will have backup support with #2 TEE BURNS in his third start off the layoff with form under similar restricted claiming conditions going back to October 30^th and the ability to stalk if necessary.   

Quinonez also shows up in this race with a complimentary pair from off the pace and could find the race slowing late with the complexion of this full field – “Fire” Contention and 38 SpeedRate: #7 GLOBAL EMPIRE showing improving form in this third start of the form cycle. #9 FLASHY RICHIE has held his form this season and will look to move up shifting back to a sprint for this race.

#3 BOONE’S PATH leads off the group returning from the December 11^th common race. He has consistent form this season and prove form around two turns, something unknown for others in this field. His closing run for place is more obvious from the running line and finishing position that it is for rival #2 GUST OF WIND. His CLOSE from off the pace followed the slow start (SLOG) and WIDE run to the wire that continued on the GALLOP+ out. 

Nearing his 6^th birthday, #8 JEALOUS EYES will look to clear the maiden condition in his 14^th lifetime start. He comes into this race with form and slightly fresh, 39-days, from the November 22^nd race at HS Indy. 

The filly #6 PERFECTLY PROUD has that hurdle with the change here though has been able to hold her form this year and at the route distance moving up on the main track to record a new top 76 OptixFIG on November 27^th.

The higher 67 SpeedRate paired with the Sun Contention can upgrade stalking Squares on the Plot. #8 SEAWARD moves into that role with tactical speed and finishing ability that can be tougher to spot on standard past performances. She has buried form keying off the October 14^th race here on the main track, a race run under similar conditions to today. The timing could present the edge over her stablemate, #5 HOT DAME recording the December 4^th win, though had to work HARD to do so.

Surface/Distance could also see #3 ERIN’S ENTHUSIASM upgraded despite the noted Contention required for Felix tasked to work a trip. She has back numbers that make her a contender keying off the races over this course back in May. 

The Surface/Distance Plot could present the edge in stamina for #10 ON A TOUR over #9 RONAN given today’s two-turn distance. Hughes will also bring back #6 WEEKEND PASS with the class rise following the BTL race on December 11^th. As a deeper closer (Quad IV Square) she will be running on late with what could be too much to do based on that visual Plot position giving up separation to the others in this field.

The 35-day recovery could offset the potential REGRESS projected for #3 BIG SPORT after the November 26^th win. His stablemate, #1 DARK HEDGES will be tested as he steps up in class to wheel back in two weeks after recording a season top 86 OptixFIG. While capable, the barn projects to gather a bulk of the support in this race and there are alternatives in this field.

VALUE KEYS: The honest Contention could assist #2 KIERKEGAARD with a trip/pace he was unable to receive chasing lone winner, Big Sport on November 26^th. #7 D’YANK could also find the right trip today and with buried form this season, Martinez could have him race ready for a peak effort off the 43-day freshening and returning to the preferred ONE_TURN distance.

Longer prices runners in this field, #5 ANDREW THE GIANT and #6 YOU’RE IN COREY can be kept on the radar. Their form can get overlooked and does not standout on the Plot as they have been running in much tougher spots this season. With that in mind, both runners carry buried form with races that can win today showing up with a top effort.  

#4 HER GOLD MINE could sneak under the radar with buried form at today’s restricted claiming condition. She did not handle the race track and WIDE trip on December 16^th, though going back to even earlier this month she recorded a competitive B- OptixGRADE on December 3^rd. #7 SILVERA recorded a B- OptixGRADE in that December 16^th common race run in the snow/WEATHER. 

#8 SAMARITA finds subtle class relief dropping to run for the $5k tag for the first time this season. That change could be what she needs as she has held her form for Vanden Berg since the claim. Samarita is shown in a similar Plot position/Shape to #5 SUPERSTAR DIVA and #9 ALMAFUERTE one that recorded a new top 77 OptixFIG just two weeks ago and could have peaked off that effort. 

#3 FOGGY KITTEN recorded a win under today's similar conditions back on October 9^th and following that race stepped up in purse to run in the open claiming races. She could present that hidden class edge, one that would be required as she is likely to find pace pressure based on the Quad I contention and honest 47 SpeedRate. 

The Contention and SpeedRate could benefit #1 PRANCIPANTS something she requires to get over the hump in order to win. She comes into this race in form and fits at this level off her races this season.  

The connections of #5 MANHATTAN LEGACY considered running at today’s $6250k N3L claiming level noting she was cross entered on December 10^th as well as the higher December 11^th race coming back off the layoff. She has that return race under her belt and OptixFIG/Class from 2021 that stacks up strongly on par for this race. 

#12 FIELD DAISEY fits as a prime contender off her form here from back on September 23^rd and October 14^th with the 75 and 77 OptixFIG recorded in those races. She could be cycling back to that top effort resetting her form cycle on November 25^th and moving forward showing progressive OptixGRADES into this race. 

#2 RUNAWAY A. TRAIN is tougher to make a case for looking at the Plot, though she does show a B OptixGRADE, a winning Grade for the level here back on October 16^th. While a top effort is required today to return to that form, she is on an every other pattern and can present a move forward from the December 10^th race where she was not asked (NO_PUSH) to run and comes back today with a rider change. 

The case for a class edge could also be made for #9 SMILE AT THE STORM shipping in to make her Hawthorne debut. Current form is the bigger concern as she has not shown to be the same horse since returning in September (C OptixGRADE) and has shown a pattern of breaking slow (VSLOG/SLOG) in those races.  

6-BOAT SONG seems like he SHOULD win this race but there are no guarantees. He’s had some decent races versus tough rivals, including his two previous races here. But he hasn’t raced in nearly five months. Will he need a race? 7-RUNAWAY JACK, stablemate of top choice, has been training well for his debut. Runners from this barn are generally ready at first asking. Might get the better of his teammate and everyone else. 4-READY MADE has some early zip and expect speed to hold some advantage again today. 

9-WICKED SURPRISE displayed good speed and held on for third in his lone start. Few in here have shown any kind of competitive speed. He’s likely to get the early lead once again. Might be able to stay there. 3-BON DEUX finished third in his last three. Turns back in distance for this. Will come running late. Might get there. 6-JEMEZ FALLS didn’t show much in his lone start. However, he had two good drills since and he’ll be racing with Lasix for the first time. Expecting solid improvement.

Like the way 2-RAINY MOUNTAIN has progressed. Each successive race has been better and better. She beat open maidens in last, her third start. She’s be back in against Illinois breds for her first start as a winner. Seems capable of making it two in a row. Stablemate of top choice 9-QUILTING PARTY is probably the one to beat. She’s in good form and just finished second in an open allowance event. But her best races have been in routes and she’s turning back in distance for this. She’s likely to make a big late run but could come up a little short. 4-SHEZA SAVAGE and 5-WILDWOOD POSSE could wind up dueling for the lead. However, if one or the other scratches of doesn’t break alertly, the remaining speed could enjoy an uncontested front end lead.

4-MUD ISLAND is two-for-two since getting claimed by this barn. Like so many in here he has plenty of early zip. But he showed a new dimension in last when he came from off the pace to win, beating most of this field. Things just might play out the same way. The speedy 1-CINDY’S G MAN was passed late by top choice in last but he was making his first start in over two months and only his second since June. He’s going to face plenty of pressure on the front end but he could be better prepared to repel his challengers today. 3-ALPINE GHOST finished behind top choice in last but only by a neck. He also finished second in his previous start, only beaten a half length. He’ll never be far off the lead. The trip can get him home.

8-JEALOUS EYES raced primarily on turf since 2020 but he finished second the last two times he ran on dirt; the last time only a neck back after taking a clear lead in the stretch. However, he has seemed to run out of gas late in his route races. He certainly looks like the one to beat but he might also be vulnerable. 4-AWESOME WILLY moves up in class but like the speed he displayed when stretched out for the first time and that speed could be enhanced with the addition of blinkers. He looks like the best speedy anyway. Now he might never look back. 5-GOLD SMOKE is worth another look. Like the way he was running late in his last sprint. He’s bred for this longer distance. Could finish with a full head of steam.

10-ON A TOUR has been in great form all year, on turf and dirt. She was favored in last but was unable to catch the lone speed and wound up second. The pace of this race with the full field should set up better. Might be able to run by late. 8-SEAWARD rates highly. She wasn’t effective when turned back in distance for last at Turfway but she also had some strong races on turf and dirt. She’ll be racing closer to the pace than top choice but won’t challenge for the lead. But good early position could give her the trip. 5-HOT DAME took advantage of a field devoid of other speed and managed to wire the field, beating top choice along with the rest of the field. She seems likely to face more early pressure in this contest but she has been able to withstand early pressure in the past. Might be able to do it again.

4-CARTE BLANCHE has been on a great roll. He won his last three, three of his last five, and five of his last seven. He’s been adept at running on the lead or tracking the pace. Will be tough either way. 9-PERFECT WAGER makes his first start for this barn. He was claimed from his last at the end of November. His new barn sports a high win percentage with their first-time claims. If he recovers his previous dirt form, he could give top choice a run for the money. 2-IOYA AGAIN is much better on turf but her last race against starter allowance company wasn’t bad, though she ran out of gas late in that nine-furlong event. The cut back in distance could help greatly in this one.

3-BIG SPORT can win again. He’s been victorious in 13 of his last 20 races, always showing speed and generally leading from the start. He’ll have some speedy company again today but there’s a good chance that he’ll put them away. 2-KIERKGAARD will be tracking the pace, hoping Big Sport faces enough early pressure to soften him up. He’s also having a good year but his has finished second almost twice as many times as he has won. He finished second to top choice in last but did finish ahead of that race in the race before. 5-ANDREW THE GIANT will show some late run with the turn back in distance. The pace will set up. Could grab a late share.

Things should set up perfectly for 5-TETSU. He’s been barely beaten in so many recent races and the pace of this race sets up better than ever. Another thing of note is that his rider will carry a whip today while he hasn’t utilized one in his last couple races. Might draw off late. How about a New Year’s surprise? 2-STALLONE could provide one. He’s turning back in distance after some competitive races in tough company. He’s been running about as fast as many in here for six furlongs. At this distance, however, he’s not likely to be close early. But he will finish fast. The 10-pound weight allowance his rider gets can help the cause. 12-IMPRESSED moves up off the claim. But, his new barn wins a lot of races because they place their runners where they can win and if Broberg thinks this runner can win at this level, who am I to argue.

8-SAMARITA drops. She’s been in good form much of the year and raced pretty well after getting claimed by this barn. She barely lost last at $12,500. But maybe they don’t have plans for her in the near future. At this level she’s likely to be claimed and could win the race. 3-FOGGY KITTEN could be the speediest member of this field. She tired in her last couple but won three in a row through September and October. Always a threat to wire the field. 5-SUPERSTAR DIVA hasn’t finished out of the money this year. Others in here seem faster but it’s hard to argue with success.

5-MANHATTAN LEGACY needed last. She beat only one but she was making her first start in a year. The drop in class and the recent trip should have her ready to be far more competitive in this one. 4-STACY ATTACK also drops. She hasn’t been in the best of form, she finished sixth in her last three, but this is likely the easiest field she ever faced. 8-TAP N TWINE shows an interesting recent pattern. Her last three races were at this level. Three races back she went off at 130-1 and finished fifth. Two races back she went off at almost 40-1 and finished sixth. Her last? She went off at 5-1 and won by 8. The only thing I see that changed is that she raced without front wraps in last. Would recommend checking her out physically before making a bet.

Tough one here with a pair of Robertson runners in this spot. Boat Song is the likely deserving favorite off his last couple but also there are gaps in the starts and some inconsistency. I wouldn't be completely surprised if he is a scratch. Runaway Jack has worked consistently coming into this debut, most recently posting a good gate drill on December 22. Of those who have raced in here aside from Boat Song, they haven't shown much so have to figure this one takes his share of action.

Rainy Mountain got an incredible pace setup ahead of her last out as a first timer was quarter horsed away from the gate, blowing any chances for itself as well as Yankee Agate in that spot. Rainy Mountain was the beneficiary as she tucked in just behind the pace and ran on nicely in the lane. The pace should be honest upfront in here as she is likely to get a very similar trip to her last out. The price should be right.

The 6 1/2 furlongs may be the difference maker in here as Alpine Ghost could be in a perfect spot. He rated back nicely and ran on late in  his last, just missing in the end. The added 16th off that start should help as there is a good amount of early pace in this race. Tee Burns could be a big threat as well but Felix choosing Cindy's G Man over Tee Burns scared me off that one.

The distance was the deciding factor for me picking Jealous Eyes over Boone's Path. Jealous Eyes just missed when going the mile in Indiana last out after holding a lead in the lane. He makes his second start off the layoff in here but should be able to rate close as there isn't much along the lines of early speed. He's overdue for a victory as the only concern is that he doesn't hang in the lane.

Despite the large field there isn't a whole lot of pace in this race. Hot Dame made the top last out and never looked back, extending her lead in the lane. There is the potential for her to scamper away once again early and repeat that performance.  She has three wins over the track and may still sneak away at a decent price.

Carte Blanche has been excellent all meet long and just seems to be getting better and better. He has the speed to make the top if wanted but also has the ability to rate back early and run on in the lane.  Felix has ridden him very well in his last couple of starts and should put him in a perfect spot once again.

There doesn't appear to be any beating Big Sport in here. He has the speed to clear and should have little issue doing so. He easily handled these in his last and has a great record at the distance and over the track. Expect him to be a winner at a short price once again.

I've always liked Almafuerte and while she has yet to win this meet, she always puts forth a good effort. I like that Santiago gets the call today. Look for her to rate close early and let's see if she can finish in here.

I liked her last time so let's try again with Tap N Twine. In her last she was able to make the top early and draw away in the lane. Even though there is a full field here there really is very little in regards to early pace. Let's see if she can repeat.