Handicapper Tips & Picks

Robertson has a solid hand in this race sending out a pair of runners: #6 BOAT SONG comes back from the 171-day layoff holding the highest recorded speed figures from those with experience in this field. He also has local experience and returns to Hawthorne from some key races out of town.

Stablemate #7 RUNAWAY JACK will make his debut in this race and not uncommon for this barn to debut horses late in the year. Fellow first time starter, #8 ANCIENT MAN could also hold intent for the connections with a steady series of recent works and that intent extending back to show published moves in the spring. 

#5 MAGAWISH is worth a mention making his belated second start noting he was entered in a turf sprint here back on October 9^th though was a late vet scratch at 44-1 that day.

The distance change for #11 MORANT is obvious, though the class change is more subtle with his races here this season contested at a higher race par. In addition, Morant had adversity with the WEATHER conditions and TRAFFIC trip on November 18^th and also had to deal with KICKBACK after stumbling at the start (TROUBLE_S) on December 4^th. 

Many of the runners in this event return from the December 16^th common race, a race that was run in the snow, poor WEATHER conditions that did impact the runners and the results. #7 UNCLE DICK being one of those runners that was not asked for run and off the visuals can IMPROVE today. They will return with the blinkers back on and could be intent along with buried form from November 20^th.  #8 CHIEF MYSTIQUE also has buried form as he returns to the maiden claiming class level from that November 20^th common race. Chief Mystique was upgraded as part of the Very Fast early pace and on that day was making his first start back off a 101-day break and is now in his third start of the form cycle. 

The early speed shown by #9 WICKED SURPRISE on December 16^th is noted where a potential pace advantage could be present. As noted with the WEATHER, he was able avoid some of that impact showing early speed (PRESSED) though lacked stick (NO_KEEP) when required and must move forward here.

#5 WILDWOOD POSSE returned from the layoff on December 9^th wearing front wraps for the first time that day. That was noted along with a vet scratch from a $25k N2L claiming race on November 18^th. The front wrap removal could suggest positive intent and upgrade with further intent in timing to wheel back in three weeks and keep her protected here. The December 9^th four horse field played against rival #3 BEG BORROW N STEAL especially with the sprint distance, off-track conditions, and her tendency to break slow/SLOG. 

Kirby will return with a pair leading with #9 QUILTING PARTY a logical type given her current speed figures and form this meet in against open company. #2 RAINY MOUNTAIN also comes into this race with current form and figures, though will be tested as she steps up to take on winners. Class will also be a test with #6 SWEET FRAULINE returning to this statebred allowance condition, something of a lateral move from the open company races with the similar OFR as today’s event.

#1 CINDY’S G MAN can be upgraded as he makes his second start off the layoff returning under similar conditions to the December 10^th race. Not only was the 69-day break in play, but he also made a RUSH into a fast pace (X_FLOW) staying on as the BOS (best of the speed) in that third place result. Watkins will have backup support with #2 TEE BURNS in his third start off the layoff with form under similar restricted claiming conditions going back to October 30^th and the ability to stalk if necessary.   

Quinonez also shows up in this race with a complimentary pair from off the pace and could find the race slowing late with the complexion of this full field – “Fire” Contention and 38 SpeedRate: #7 GLOBAL EMPIRE showing improving form in this third start of the form cycle. #9 FLASHY RICHIE has held his form this season and will look to move up shifting back to a sprint for this race.

#3 BOONE’S PATH leads off the group returning from the December 11^th common race. He has consistent form this season and prove form around two turns, something unknown for others in this field. His closing run for place is more obvious from the running line and finishing position that it is for rival #2 GUST OF WIND. His CLOSE from off the pace followed the slow start (SLOG) and WIDE run to the wire that continued on the GALLOP+ out. 

Nearing his 6^th birthday, #8 JEALOUS EYES will look to clear the maiden condition in his 14^th lifetime start. He comes into this race with form and slightly fresh, 39-days, from the November 22^nd race at HS Indy. 

The filly #6 PERFECTLY PROUD has that hurdle with the change here though has been able to hold her form this year and at the route distance moving up on the main track to record a new top 76 OptixFIG on November 27^th.

The higher 67 SpeedRate paired with the Sun Contention can upgrade stalking Squares on the Plot. #8 SEAWARD moves into that role with tactical speed and finishing ability that can be tougher to spot on standard past performances. She has buried form keying off the October 14^th race here on the main track, a race run under similar conditions to today. The timing could present the edge over her stablemate, #5 HOT DAME recording the December 4^th win, though had to work HARD to do so.

Surface/Distance could also see #3 ERIN’S ENTHUSIASM upgraded despite the noted Contention required for Felix tasked to work a trip. She has back numbers that make her a contender keying off the races over this course back in May. 

The Surface/Distance Plot could present the edge in stamina for #10 ON A TOUR over #9 RONAN given today’s two-turn distance. Hughes will also bring back #6 WEEKEND PASS with the class rise following the BTL race on December 11^th. As a deeper closer (Quad IV Square) she will be running on late with what could be too much to do based on that visual Plot position giving up separation to the others in this field.

The 35-day recovery could offset the potential REGRESS projected for #3 BIG SPORT after the November 26^th win. His stablemate, #1 DARK HEDGES will be tested as he steps up in class to wheel back in two weeks after recording a season top 86 OptixFIG. While capable, the barn projects to gather a bulk of the support in this race and there are alternatives in this field.

VALUE KEYS: The honest Contention could assist #2 KIERKEGAARD with a trip/pace he was unable to receive chasing lone winner, Big Sport on November 26^th. #7 D’YANK could also find the right trip today and with buried form this season, Martinez could have him race ready for a peak effort off the 43-day freshening and returning to the preferred ONE_TURN distance.

Longer prices runners in this field, #5 ANDREW THE GIANT and #6 YOU’RE IN COREY can be kept on the radar. Their form can get overlooked and does not standout on the Plot as they have been running in much tougher spots this season. With that in mind, both runners carry buried form with races that can win today showing up with a top effort.  

#4 HER GOLD MINE could sneak under the radar with buried form at today’s restricted claiming condition. She did not handle the race track and WIDE trip on December 16^th, though going back to even earlier this month she recorded a competitive B- OptixGRADE on December 3^rd. #7 SILVERA recorded a B- OptixGRADE in that December 16^th common race run in the snow/WEATHER. 

#8 SAMARITA finds subtle class relief dropping to run for the $5k tag for the first time this season. That change could be what she needs as she has held her form for Vanden Berg since the claim. Samarita is shown in a similar Plot position/Shape to #5 SUPERSTAR DIVA and #9 ALMAFUERTE one that recorded a new top 77 OptixFIG just two weeks ago and could have peaked off that effort. 

#3 FOGGY KITTEN recorded a win under today's similar conditions back on October 9^th and following that race stepped up in purse to run in the open claiming races. She could present that hidden class edge, one that would be required as she is likely to find pace pressure based on the Quad I contention and honest 47 SpeedRate. 

The Contention and SpeedRate could benefit #1 PRANCIPANTS something she requires to get over the hump in order to win. She comes into this race in form and fits at this level off her races this season.  

The connections of #5 MANHATTAN LEGACY considered running at today’s $6250k N3L claiming level noting she was cross entered on December 10^th as well as the higher December 11^th race coming back off the layoff. She has that return race under her belt and OptixFIG/Class from 2021 that stacks up strongly on par for this race. 

#12 FIELD DAISEY fits as a prime contender off her form here from back on September 23^rd and October 14^th with the 75 and 77 OptixFIG recorded in those races. She could be cycling back to that top effort resetting her form cycle on November 25^th and moving forward showing progressive OptixGRADES into this race. 

#2 RUNAWAY A. TRAIN is tougher to make a case for looking at the Plot, though she does show a B OptixGRADE, a winning Grade for the level here back on October 16^th. While a top effort is required today to return to that form, she is on an every other pattern and can present a move forward from the December 10^th race where she was not asked (NO_PUSH) to run and comes back today with a rider change. 

The case for a class edge could also be made for #9 SMILE AT THE STORM shipping in to make her Hawthorne debut. Current form is the bigger concern as she has not shown to be the same horse since returning in September (C OptixGRADE) and has shown a pattern of breaking slow (VSLOG/SLOG) in those races.