Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 COUNTRY LADY figures to be a solid public wagering favorite in this race and could be compromised (weak/vulnerable) in that role. She lacked a finish at this level on 12/23 and projects to take pace pressure in today's dynamic. #1 BITSY PERFECTMATCH is also likely to be shorter than the morning line suggests in this race for Alexis Claire, a live barn that has been supported this meet and touted by the on-air handicappers. 

Both #6 MIS ANTONIA (upgraded from a closing over the off track on 12/2 and wide trip on 12/29) and #7 HIGHLY WICKED (improvement projected on 11/18 and a flow upgrade from the route race on 12/2 cutting back to a sprint) can step forward in this event and making the class drop from Special Weight for this race. 

#4 DOLLY'S GUITAR has yet to run as "fast" as rivals #1 GUITAR WOMAN or #6 HOPEITSMYLUCKYDAY, though is given a mention here as a lightly race type that returns from a troubled trip behind her stablemate winner, A Running Afleet on 12/22.

Quad I Square (OptixPLOT) #1 LORD CAPTAIN could hold a pace advantage in this race and the edge over #4 KING TUFF listed as the morning line favorite returning today off a 239-day layoff with a pattern of gate issues (SLOG) the slow starts. 

Overall this is an evenly matched group to present a strong edge in any one direction. Some value could stick on #2 JAZZ JAZZ JAZZ as she returns to the maiden claiming level, conditions where she was competitive here back on November 27th. #1 PSEUDOSCIENCE is another lightly raced type that will find subtle class relief for this second start and could benefit from the initial experience and added ground.

#2 WHY BEHAVE makes sense as the favorite for this race. She has been given some time to recover off the win at this level on 12/08 where she was claimed by Amoss. #6 MEDWAY QUEEN could be given another chance exiting that same 12/8 event though did not have a clean break, was rushed up for position and was not asked late after losing ground and comes back with a rider change. 

The public could gravitate toward #8 RAMMER JAMMER as he feels the "safer" option in this field. While he is returning from the minor finishes at this maiden claiming level, the overall efforts were short of "winning" ones without excuse to open the door to others in this field. 

Both #4 VALE and #5 ICE AXE have buried form and competitive numbers. In the past, they have been compromised with their "off the pace" run style, though that could change here given the class drop and exiting significantly higher race par events. #3 RECON has yet to run as "fast" and has a challenge taking on older runners making his sophomore debut. With that said, he could still fit with subtle/hidden class relief and his early speed could be upgraded given the flow upgrade from his races to date as well. 

The entry runners #1 SECRET VISTA and #1A HALF AGAIN both fit logically in this race and in their role as the morning line favorite with tactical speed and speed figures on par with the class drop. #9 COACH KENNY can move forward as he make his second start off the layoff. He had trouble out of the gate on 12/15 and closed a lot of ground, something that does not appear as obvious "on paper" with the 6th place finish. In addition, he has a win at today's claiming condition going back to January of last year.

Looking to make a case for some longer priced runners to get in the mix: #7 MISTER DON is capable of improvement wheeling right back in this second start off the layoff and showing some run in spots despite the running line and finishing position. #10 GOLDEN PALACE also returns from that 1/5 common race with his entrymate finishing third that afternoon. #3 CHEROKEE TAKEOVER is a deeper closing type that requires a trip and value though should have more pace than he did closing against the flow on 12/23.

As far as speed figures there is not much in terms of separation for the runners in this field. #8 PERFECTLY GOLDEN has the benefit of racing experience and making the transition from Special Weight to run today at the claiming level. That class change should assist her assessing her visuals from the December 9th race. #3 FIRST HILL also will drop in class, though will do so coming off a layoff following her October debut where she did not show much run or take much public support - something of note for these connections - and likely to be shorter today. 

Diodoro will be represented by a pair with first time starter #2 SHAKE RATTLE NROLL picking up a live rider in Torres. Stablemate #7 JANE BOND recorded an even effort at the level with her place finish on 12/16 with some adversity/trouble though overall visuals show an inefficient mover. Her overall effort is in line with #6 PEACEFUL MOMENT, one that has the route/two-turn experience on her side though overall has not shown much progression. #5 ABBREVIATION will also debut here looking for a first meet win for Riley Mott, a barn that has been sending out runners seemingly well-placed for their abilities though come up short on the win end without much in terms of excuse. 

#1 LEADER OF MEN could hold a pace advantage in this race with his run style (Quad I Square) and inside draw. He would require that edge as he projects to remain the same as far as form and figures making his second start at this meet and still looking for a win/winning effort at this starter allowance condition. Rival #6 COLOSI was able to benefit from an inside, ground saving pocket trip to win the 12/17 common race. He recorded a new top in that race and would require holding his form or even improvement here. That also carries to #7 TIGER MOON coming back off the 12/16 win also recording a new top while making his second start off the layoff and well-intended for the live connections that day. 

#2 COACH ADAMS has raced at a shorter number (odds) going back more than a year and that could change today potentially getting "lost" on the board. He was scheduled to run in that 12/17 starter allowance though unable to run as a vet scratch and returns under similar conditions, racing protected and recording a work on 1/5 to keep fitness. Fitness along with trip is key as today's distance is beyond his ideal, though still capable. #5 PRIMER DIMER also given a mention on value alone. While not the "most likely" winner of this race he fits off his current form and figures to compete with a top effort. #8 TAKE CHARGE GENT also at double-digit odds could be kept on the radar as well showing up as a Large Square on OptixPLOT.

#4 BIG BAD DIVA comes into this race on a buried "every other" form cycle pattern for Simms. The timing off this race on the three week turnaround is a "second off" and returning to the claiming level where she was effective winning back in November at Churchill Downs. That timing and intent along with her form and running style could be the edge in this race for a group that is overall evenly matched. 

#3 DOOZY BATS was one of the worst bets as a short price on December 17th coming off the layoff, barn change and adding front wraps; and given a mention as she is listed again as the morning line favorite for this race. Despite some mild contact at the start there was no real excuse as she was not doing much to compete before getting eased up. That 12/17 race was a compact field won by a double digit perfect trip first time starter and aided by a weaker ride from Jordan on #2 KEEN CONTENDER allowing that runner to give up crucial early position. A more assertive ride could be projected today especially coming back this afternoon with the blinkers on. 

#6 QUALITY CHROME will smartly return to the maiden claiming level here for Mason where she has been more effective in the past, including two sprints here last season. #7 AMERICAN BAND also seems well-placed as she takes the class drop in her belated second start.  

#8 BARGAIN HUNTER is a "flow upgrade" from her debut (also raced "green" and poorly handled), however she finds a tougher test today as a recently turned sophomore in against older, more mature rivals - age is also noted for #1 STAR POSE. As far as early pace, #9 ROWDY DAISY also has shown tactical speed, however exits softer (VS O4S - very slow opening half mile) dynamics before losing ground. 

#3 MAJESTIC FLAG could offer value in this field and fits at the same time keying off a "winning" race (B OptixGRADE) for the level back on November 2nd at Churchill Downs. #6 CYCLONE also holds a B OptixGRADE under similar maiden claiming conditions form back on November 6th, however that race was contested at a sprint distance and CYCLONE has shown some distance limitation in his limited route starts to factor (no value) as the morning line favorite. 

Value also makes #7 LIL BRO COOP a less exciting play in this race, unproven on the main track. Should he transfer his current form, he is logical one off his current speed figures and barn change with Hartman showing success with the Ruis runners as of late. Value also makes #2 MOURVEDRE one to assess on that front as he has shown progression race-to-race though still lighter on figures than others. The barn change to Diodoro could project that forward movement he requires to win here, though that change also should see a big impact in his number on the board. Looking to get more creative; #10 TOAST TO TOAST will make his maiden claiming debut and just a second start around two turns, the right distance for this individual.

His former stablemate, #1 BLOW TORCH also lands here going first off the claim/layoff for Broberg. His figures fit today's race par (OptixFIGRANGE) though must carry those numbers off the bench and around two-turns, something he's yet to prove. #8 PIZZA CHARLIE returns from the long layoff once again; a similar layoff pattern and class placement to the March even last year where he fell into a near perfect trip and unable to hold the lead to the wire settling for show in a blanket finish. #4 BENISSIMO also returns from a blanket finish on November 12th at Remington Park and while this appears a class drop on paper, today's event is actually a class rise comparing par. 

#7 NAMESAKE should benefit from the class relief and start on 12/10 to move forward in this spot. The weather conditions should be noted with the off-track and race run in the pouring rain with NAMESAKE breaking slow (SLOG) and given a passive ride (TACTIC-) before showing more late interest than it appears on the running line and finishing position. 

Upside is also projected today for #9 HANKS in what appeared a "prep" on 12/17 coming back off the layoff. #5 ZAP MOTION is also worth a mention exiting that 12;/17 common race where he had a "SLOG" and trouble at the start taking him out of his run style and out of contention racing well off the pace and chasing a softer race shape that day. The layoff return today is in play for #8 IMMORAL one that could benefit from that time off to mature and could be sitting on a top effort for a barn that has been quietly sending out live runners.  

#9 ROYAL KING will make a belated return in this second start for Robertson and back to similar conditions and even timing from his debut here last year. As this will be just his second start, a move forward is not out of the question and he has some steady works to suggest they could be race ready today and intended for this sprint distance.

Moquett started off the meet strong and will show up with the pair of #2 MAGNIFICUS and #7 KINGMAKER. These two will be returning from layoffs and have shown gate issues in the past to note. As they will make that belated return, with a month into this meet these two not showing up in the first part of the meet hold more reservations today than they would have weeks earlier.

#3 PLAUSIBLE DENILE carries the benefit of recency making his second start of the meet and with a positive distance change returning to a sprint here. #1 TOWN BRANCH also with recency though has not shown much in terms of progression and class weakness has also been a concern in the past. 

#9 CHARLEE MAE looked to be given the race (PREP) with the stakes placement and ride (TACTIC-) not asked for her best (or much at all) in the Years End Stakes. The connections wheeling right back in just 13-days along with a rider and distance change suggest intent. 

Hartman has a pair in this race holding similar speed figures on their best day though #2 KLASSY BRIDGETTE has been more consistent in those figures to suggest a "class" edge over #8 CONDENSATION despite coming off a maiden win. 

#3 U GLOW GIRL could take a fair share of support for Brad Cox in this event. They showed intent to run at this level back on December 31st however unable to compete as a vet scratch from the race.  

Attention must be paid to the races this time in year with young sophomores stepping up to run against older. This race as a solid example with the older horses holding a significant edge. #3 STREET COMMANDER returns from a solid closing run finishing in a blanket at the wire (along with pacesetting #8 SKYPED) on 12/16. #7 EV'S SHERMAN was not as successful in the outcome here on 12/17 though was in against open company and projects to move up back in with statebred. Both #6 CLASSY SOCKS and #9 STORM STRATEGY return from that 12/16 common race with wide trips and could show a move forward here as lightly raced types. 

The opening event is a maiden Special Weight for four-year-old and up with plenty in this field that have had their chances with experience. Gaines returns with a pair including the lightly seasoned #5 ELEGANCE CODE - a runner that showed ability first out though a need for more ground. She found that in her second start with an improved effort (B- OptixGRADE/77 OptixFIG) and returns today under similar conditions off the layoff. 

#2 OAK MILK LATTE also improved with a similar race-to-race pattern and appears less obvious given her running lines and finishing positions. The ride and traffic trip was less than ideal on 11/27 at Del Mar and she showed run for the level and a solid gallop out after the wire. 

These two offer alternatives to #8 SHOCKING GREY - the likely favorite. She would be no surprise though has not shown much progression race-to-race and her effort would appear likely just have to be enough on the day. 

#5 BRUTTO is the type of runner that is worth taking on coming back off the layoff once again. He has shown to be a "ploddy" type throughout his career and the reasons for the placement given his connections along with the class drop today.

#2 NOLO CONTESTO is another type that "is who he is" though will make some changes wheeling back in two weeks first off the claim for O'Neill. He has the benefit of recency and fits on his current form for today's claiming level. #1 BIG SPLASH comes into this race lighter on numbers though keeping in mind he is lightly raced and those speed figures were recorded during his juvenile/early sophomore season where improvement is still possible. #4 FIREMAN DAN lands here for a live outfit with Amescua. He can compete at this level and with current form however trip with his off the pace running style is still something to consider as far as play for this sprint distance. 

#4 MAJESTIC STEPS has struggled with the recent layoffs to find some form and rhythm for Eurton. She comes back today from the 3 month break and returning to a sprint distance, a preferred change for her. Her form at this level stacks up on par and landing in this spot with Prat suggests intent. #1 ROSES AND CANDY also holds form at this level, surface and distance keying off a very solid show finish making a wide move on 10/7 - as well as a sneaky good run in August at Del Mar. #11 TOO BOSSY could get dismissed from the outside draw. She is another that has struggled in terms of layoffs though has figures that fit at this level, for the turf and one of a few in the group with confirmed early speed. 

#6 KATONAH has been off more than a year and has a long series of works coming back to the races. That could be taken as a negative sign to get "race ready" though at the same time fits with today's group. His second start and first at a sprint earned a solid speed figure and effort that was improved on returning to a sprint and with the change in class to run for a tag in the race right before the layoff. He could offer an alternative to #2 FAMOUS STAR and #3 DISTORTED MATH two that figure logical, though tough to have much confidence in -- especially at a shorter price. #4 TENTH STREET DON has a pattern of breaking slow that is likely to continue until proven otherwise. He has some run though creates that hurdle for himself in order to win. 

Miller could take a lot of attention in this event with the complementary pair of #1 GIVE ME THE LUTE with early speed and #8 HEMBREE coming back off the layoff with a late kick. Both horses have races that fit on their best day though challenges here as the Miller barn has been cold with GIVE likely to take pace pressure and with HEMBREE returning from a two year layoff today as now a 9yo.

The 12/3 race for #10 REBEL POSSE should benefit him (OptixNOTES - PREP) in this second start off the layoff along with the right amount of class relief. The distance change with the added furlong plays favorable to #5 MESUT returning to Santa Anita.

Class gives #2 KANDREL an edge in this race and as a horse that has buried one-turn form should be spotted where he can win for Mandella. The class drop and placement comes with timing following a vet scratch from back on 12/4 from a higher Optional Claiming turf sprint at Del Mar.

#6 FEELING GRAZEFUL has shown enough early speed to hold an advantage in this race. She is also returning from a layoff with the outside draw where fitness, conditioning and a top effort are also required to win and some price compensation should be expected from those factors.

#2 VEGAN has the edge on recency and upside as she returns from an EX - EXCUSE and a freshening from back on 11/12 at Del Mar. #1 BIG SHAMROCK wheels right back and to the main track to a condition she won with a perfect trip at LRC on 12/17 for O'Neill. 

#8 XMAS SURPRISE returns with a major rider upgrade. The presence of Prat is sure to be noticed even if the public has not been following her races, trips and poor rides in all three Del Mar races.

#2 STELLA NOIR also returns with a rider change off less than ideal handling along with the slow start on 10/29. Prior to that she turned in a competitive race over this course and condition on 9/30.

In this compact field there are few front running types and that could create the edge for #3 STARSHIP DEFIANT. While a little more finish was expected from her on 12/18 at Los Alamitos, the connections could not have been too disappointed in the overall outcome also sending out the race winner. #6 GIANNA'S WILD CAT is the other in the race that has shown early speed and if she holds a move forward, today could be the time as she makes her second start off the layoff. 

The contention in this race runs deep with the players in this race as well as the race shape. That scenario does not create much if any edge for either #9 DOLLY MAY or #11 CONSTERNATION from pace to value and there are alternatives.

#8 BEACHGRASS being one of those that could be overlooked off her recent running lines and finishing positions and holds form, speed figures, class and run style for this race shape. #4 WITCH MOON could be another that sneaks under the radar and falls into the right trip as she races back in for a tag for the first time since her maiden days. #2 A CROWN FOR KITTEN is a recent maiden winner and lighter on speed figures, though at the same time is lightly raced and on the younger side where still upside could be projected for another in this group that fits today's dynamic.