Handicapper Tips & Picks

#7 FAST LANE comes into this race on the "slower" side though could project some upside from his juvenile numbers as well as the class drop in this second start off the layoff with his hidden early speed as a potential pace advantage. #3 ASSET BASIS could come running on debut for Brisset, a barn that has started off live with a limited sample and picks up a live rider in Bejarano here.

The pace is the primary knock at the projected number for #6 EL GEMAR, with his off the pace run style though as an individual that fits as a contender in this race. Trip is also crucial for #5 BOURBON ON FIRE with a similar run style and habit of breaking slow. 

#4 GUIDED ARROW returning to the maiden claiming condition is the right move for his abilities - though overall does not hold much of an edge over some others to justify a shorter number today, while capable. 

#9 UNDECODED fits as a contender off her form, figures, course experience and upgraded coming back off the slight freshening with class relief for very live connections so far this meet. Those factors could land them favored at post time despite not being assigned that role. That role lands on #6 IPSUM GRATUS one that will return from a two month break and bias-aided win on November 11th. Double digit morning line odds upgrade #4 DUTCHESS BUBBLES returning from the 126-day layoff to Oaklawn Park and keying off her form/figures last season she shows up in the right spot for her abilities, a softer condition/race par than the events last spring. 

#8 HANKS scratched from a similar $20k N2 claiming event yesterday (1/13) to run here instead. The placement here suggests intent along with the return race off the 246-day layoff back on 12/17, a race that signaled prep. HANKS stacks right up number wise with #6 CARBONITE, the morning line favorite. Carbonite could also find himself back to his top form making his second start off the claim a return to the claiming level and upside from 12/16 allowance where he raced warm, wide and was not asked for run after losing ground early on.

#3 SISAWAY NOW could get "lost" on the board and has select races that stand out as a contender including his Special Weight win (with Gonzalez aboard) here back March. #5 HAPPY BOY ROCKET also has some buried form and figures that stand out and some upside could be projected for a runner that tends to break slow moving off the rail from a subtle traffic trip showing some run in spots on 12/17. Former Fletcher stablemate, #4 PAPA ROCKET also has a pattern of slow (slog) starts throughout his career and should be noted as that creates a required trip from off the pace back at 6f. 

#2 TWO EAGLES RIVER would be no surprise winning this race though as a projected heavy favorite some knocks must be factored. While on the track he has shown up in each start with a competitive race, his numbers have declined with each event. That is noted coming back in two weeks to make his route debut off a trip that was not an easy journey on 12/31 that began with a rough start forcing a wide move and making contact with the race winner in the stretch. 

Brad Cox will return with a pair for this race and likely to see the G1 placed, #5 VERIFYING shorter of the two. His debut was impressive at Saratoga and could benefit from the recovery time returning here. It is interesting (leading reservation) with Garcia named, a rider that has yet to pick up a call for Cox this meet and primary rider, Talamo sticking with #7 JUDO. 

#8 RECKER POINT has yet to step up and run the "fast" race required to win this event. With that said, he has the September speed figure from last year to build off of as well as current form in this third start of the form cycle. Some further upside (improve) could be projected off the 12/17 trip showing more run with adversity than the line and finishing position suggests. Improvement is also required for #1 GUN PILOT off his perfect trip debut in a race (11/26 CD) that has been just average going forward.

The race par is on the lower side for this Special Weight level and with many proven older runners combined with a pair of sophomores to make up the rest of the puzzle. #7 TALES OF HOME could be the lesser of evils in this race tough to knock either start given the complexion of this field. 

#5 FABULOUS FANNY has been unappealing at a shorter price in the past though price could compensate today with the barn change and layoff. To her credit, she does show a "winning" effort for the level keying off the 2021 September place run at Churchill Downs.

A value case was made for #8 CHARTRUSE on 12/30 keying off her debut figure and effort from last April. Perhaps the layoff and timing played a role as trip could not be used as an excuse in that 5th place result. #4 VOW projects to receive attention for the connections along with recording the field high speed figure on 11/24 at Churchill Downs - a race par lower than today's and noted as this is a step up in class. 

After pairing tops #2 ASH FLAT will be looking for a third straight win while a case for regression could be made. Their current form fits for this race and the Hartman barn has been sending out live runners, factors all around to suggest a shorter price will again be in play here. 

Looking to get creative and rewarded, #6 GOZILLA will be required to run back to his main track figures to compete here. He has some subtle form exiting the Woodbine meet and McKnight will take this spot to run noting they were a vet scratch from a starter allowance on 12/30. #5 SHADOW MATTER was no match for Ash Flat back on 11/17, though has been given time since that race and first off the claim for Sharp with back numbers to compete here with a top effort. 

#7 SLAM DUNK SERMON flew under the radar off a hidden 9/25 trip out in California and rallied with the race flow to get up in a photo here on 12/30. He should hold his form to present that late kick, though the race dynamic projects to be softer, less contentious early than last out. #8 LAKE RADIO will also require a trip and transferring his form/figures from Prairie Meadows, something that can be tougher on those runners. #1 IMPRESSED tends to run the same race every time and one that requires racing luck to fall into that trip for the win.

This race could certainly see a first time starter pop up and likely to find the public gravitating towards the names they feel comfortable with as Brad Cox sends out #7 BRADLEY PINK and Moquett with #12 BETTY JO.

As far as the runners with experience they should not be overlooked holding some upside off their respective debut efforts: #3 ELMO'S SECRET looked to be given (prep) her first start back in November at Remington Park and they have been unlucky entered this meet and unable to draw into Special Weight events. #5 FINISHWHATUSTARTED has the local experience showing legit gate speed with a wide duel on 12/11 to suggest a move forward off that race. #9 SASSY LASS had a more obvious "trip" with trouble at the start, in running and showing a move. 

#2 PORTILLA will race here above condition, though a lateral move as far as race par. She turned in a BTL effort with the place finish in the Pan Zareta Stakes last month, a "winning" type effort for the level. Her numbers stack right up with morning line favorite, #1 LOVEMESOMEME, one that gives up recency coming off a three month break with some gaps in the returning worktab as she makes her first start for Cox.

Playing this race starts with the assessment of #8 GINOBILI. He has shown class at the graded stakes level, strong speed figures and early speed that make him a contender on his best day. He has struggled to find his best day in the two starts here at Oaklawn in the past and does require that top effort as he will be tested around two-turns here. 

#9 KING FURY has been class tested and proven at a route/two-turn distance. He has recency on his side as well as upside from the less-than-ideal ride and traffic trip in the Tinsel and some intent could be projected as they wheel back for this race with blinkers on. 

#1 SOY TAPATIO has improved with racing and a route of ground with consistency since moving into the Diodoro barn. They will look to pair up wins returning from the Zia Stakes back in November. The physical nature of that race and what was required to get the win was noted and positive that they have allowed him the time to recoup, recover for this race off the 53-day break. 

#10 SILVER PROSPECTOR will also add (re-add) the blinkers for this race. As a longshot as projected by the morning line the amount of "knocks" are clear though most crucial is the draw with his running style where both horse and rider must be on their "A" game. 

#6 RATED R SUPERSTAR is stepping up in class off the Remington stakes win where he was flow aided for his closing kick. This event is a tougher spot and trip is still a factor to weigh in terms of value according to the morning line. 

#6 ROCKET AND ROLL has shown improvement race-to-race along with early speed that could present an edge in today's race shape and in contrast to others in this field. Stablemate #11 EMPIRE'S BEST took some early money on 12/10. He also shown some improvement in his races to date though still requires a big move forward compared to others in this field including his stablemate. 

#3 SHOPPER'S REVENGE broke slow in his one-turn debut back in November and will look to build off that race, while a much shorter price looks to be expected this afternoon. Sun Thunder, the 11/26 show finisher returned to break his maiden here very impressively improving 11 OptixFIG points on 12/31. 

#10 ESCAPOLOGIST has the two turn route experience and with speed figures on par for this race, though his overall visuals still require him to show more to support strongly on the win end. #2 PAPPY WOLFE has documented gate issues and the pattern of slow starts that make him a liability. With that said, his BTL effort on 12/16 is still deserving of a mention.