Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 ALWAYS ANGEL returns from the three month break and the extra-wide trip in the stakes race at Delaware Park. Her tactical, early speed from the three prior sprint starts could hold an advantage in this race and over fellow projected pacesetter, #7 SALTWATER GYPSY. 

#2 BIZZY GAL will find much required class relief from the Jimmy Durante (G3) where she was outclassed above all else. She does not hold much of an edge over others though seems better placed for her abilities here. #1 MISS ADDIE LYNN is not without a chance as she has upside coming into this event. She has been her biggest enemy to date with the pattern of breaking slow (slog) that has been present in each of her races thus far. The pattern of breaking slow also has been present on #6 TATTERED HEART, a factor that played against her finishing second last month in a claiming race at the Fair Grounds and will be stepping up in class showing up in this spot and on this circuit. 

#4 WEST SIDE GIRL is projected to be favored in this race and should receive added attention coming back off the obvious troubled trip on December 16th. She fits in this spot looking to pick up the first win of the meet for Riley Mott going first off the claim.

The presence of West Side Girl in this race keeps the early pace contentious and could allow for a scenario where #3 MOHAYLADY and #8 XYLOPHONE are able to work a trip from off the pace. These two ran in a common race back on December 16th where the lack of early pace (X_FLOW) had them compromised from a pace dynamic standpoint. 

#3 COLD AS HELL was not ridden with the assertive hand (TACTIC-) he requires back on December 18th and should see Cabrera more aggressive today. It would be detrimental to try and rate in this scenario as they appear on OptixPLOT clear in Quad I above the ParLine with a significant pace advantage. 

As far as morning line favorite, #2 LOVE MY JIMMY he lacked a finish in the November Del Mar race with a "lone" lead and had enough to hold with another lone lead trip here in December despite drifting out late. The pace should be more contentious given the complexion of this race and the lack of a line (drifting) is not something shown in the running line, open length finishing position and speed figure - the reasons (along with connections) factors he will be supported again today. 

Class wise today's starter allowance is closer to a lateral move for #6 ANALYZER wheeling right back first off the claim and BTL effort in his 5th place run on January 6th. He has more tactical speed than he was able to show that day noting he was unprepared at the start and off very slow as a result. As noted the pace should be contentious and honest, a dynamic that can upgrade #8 HOT PASTRAMI with his closing run and closing 3rd place run against the flow at this level on December 10th. #5 HERD IMMUNITY fell into a trip winning on December 16th and could land in a similar time and place today. While he did win making his first start back after a 146-day layoff, he did not have to run his "top" figure to do so to suggests he can hold form coming back for this race. At the projected longer odds #4 ZOFFA remains in the mix. He is not as consistently "fast" though has select races that fit with today's group on his best day. 

This in a complicated statebred maiden claiming event with many in this field as sophomores running against older. That includes morning line favorite, #10 WESTOVER a first time starter for Brad Cox; and #5 MIRI A COINCIDENCE a second time starter that showed early speed (and potential physical issue) setting the pace against Special Weight company two weeks ago. 

As far as the older runners, #2 HARDSCRABBLE will step up in class technically, however, in terms of race par today's event is a lower OptixFIGRANGE than the two spring races last year. That includes his debut race staying on as the "best of the speed" in that place finish when taking a tough beat getting run down late. Class relief is also in play for #4 SALTY JONES dropping in for the maiden claiming tag. He has shown mild progression as he lands in here in the second start off the layoff. He has had gate issues in both races acting up, fractious in the stall that is necessary to mention. 

#6 MR WORKS is another three-year-old making his debut in this spot and could be overlooked and appears to have some run and positive intent for Barkley. #8 JUST BECAUSE could go off shorter than the morning line suggests given the trend of Moquett runners this season. Jockey Keith Asmussen picked up a first win this meet this week, though Bejarano has been the prime rider for this barn. 

This race is competitive and evenly matched as something to consider as value should be demanded in this case. That assessment begins with #7 SO IT WOULD SEEM as she is logical though no value in that role. 

#1 SHELL SHOCK is one of two for Hartman, a live barn and one that has shown a slight class and speed figure edge over the more lightly seasoned stablemate, #8 NO DRAMA MOMMA.

#6 HARTLEY recorded one of the highest speed figures in this field when she made her debut a winning one over this course last year. Going back to that February 8th race day, she was heavily backed early in the win pool as well as the multis and by that betting action and the performance on the track was well-intended that day. She will return fresh to this circuit and as far as race par finds a softer spot from the higher rated events last year. Coming back off the layoff today she does show some gaps in her works with just the one published move in December after a steady series in November. 

The trend has not been as "hot" for Maker so far this season though the barn is surely capable; and #9 ARGUMENTAL is capable here coming off a "winning" type place finish effort back in November at Churchill Downs. 

Number wise statebred, #5 ONE WAY OR ANOTHER has races that stack up on par, though will be class tested as this is a rise from the races here so far this season. 

As far as the morning line favorites, #2 RIGHT TONE and #7 GREATHEART drop to the claiming level for the first time in their career and likely the right move for this duo as they have struggled to consistently run their top effort (often a class deficiency) and compete enough to win at this higher allowance condition. 

#9 CONSIPIRACY FACT can be upgraded here from both ground loss and race flow wheeling back from the December 16th event. A similar upgrade is in play for #11 QUICK TO BLAME also suffering from the ride and trip in that common race last month, though has the outside post to overcome here today.

#1 FULL AUTHORITY has been able to win off a long layoff and at this condition for Compton last year. While capable the morning line does not offer much in terms of value all things considered. 

The public could gravitate towards #2 FORE LEFT and would not be surprised if he winds up post time favorite first off the claim for Hartman. The trip back on December 11th was not impacted by trouble as it may appear. 

"Longshot" #3 WHISKY DOUBLE could sneak under the radar. He will return to Oaklawn Park under conditions he has been able to compete and win along with Santana in the saddle. That is noted when entered here back on January 8th at a higher condition with Juarez named and did not participate that day as a trainer scratch landing here instead. 

As one that could take support in this race, it is important to note #1 MISSIN CURFEW was a vet scratch when entered at a mile $30k maiden claiming event here on December 18th. Diodoro will also send out #4 ONCE UPON A DREAM wheeling back from a slightly troubled trip when stepped up in class (MSW) and stretched out in distance on December 16th. 

Number wise #7 J J'S JOKER should move up naturally in this spot and exiting the higher level Special Weight events contested off off tracks and in the pouring rain on 12/10. Class relief should assist #5 CONSTITUTION DAY one that must still improve overall and has shown a pattern of breaking slow (slog) in both starts and similar should be expected today.  

#6 FUNNY UNCLE has shown run in spots and could be given a slight pass when asked to run back on short two week rest with a wide trip in November. The barn has had him freshened and pointed to this meet and arguably this spot noting two trainer scratches from 12/10 and 1/6.

The change in class is a lateral move for #9 PERMAFROST one that has shown some progression race-to-race; a contrast to #10 GOLDEN BANDIT one that appears to find class relief though according to race par is a step up in class from the par from both Keeneland events. 

The outside posts will require a trip along with race readiness for both first time starters #11 FRIDAYNIGHTSOLDIER (Garcia with a Cox win on Saturday) and #12 BOLD D'ORO.