Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 ENDURING PEACE could present the class and pace edge (Quad I Square) of that front running group exiting a higher conditioned restricted claiming race on 12/29. #8 COMMERCIAL FLASH also returns from a place finish B OptixGRADE effort closing ground after a slow (slog) start. Trip is crucial again for a late running type over this course profile that has played against closers. #4 GILDED APPLE has been freshened since the 12/4 race, an event that was impossible to see the runners both due to fog and the camera not pointed to the track during the running of the race. #1 BET ON BOURBON could find wagering support here off the back to back wins though keeping value in mind for this spot with the class rise and pace contention including #2 CANDY'S PRIDE and #3 CHARLIE'S PEAK along with Enduring Peace. #7 KASEN'S SISTER was unable to make the lead due to a rough start (TROUBLE_S and WIDE) on 12/29 and has been more effective when on or near the lead in the past and would not be surprised to see her closer to the pace here as well.  

#1 HIGHER NOTE could present value and hold a subtle pace advantage as a Quad I Square compared to the Large Quad I Circles, #5 CORONA DEL MAR and #6 KEEP LEFT. That pace advantage is key to work first run on #2 LITTLE FAIRY, #4 MARIA GONE WILD and #7 SHE'S JERSEY TUFF.

#3 SWEETASBAILY is tough to "Plot" as far as trip in this case as she broke slow (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) in her layoff return last month. That 12/22 race against Special Weight finds her significant class relief here dropping for this second start back. 

#5 CHROME RACER fits at this level returning from the layoff with class relief (DROP? OptixNOTE Projection) and based on prior figures/run style. The long layoff and layoff patterns throughout her career come with reservations that must be factored with odds. #8 TERRANOVA could offer some value and upside off her return races this season setting a Very Fast early pace against the track bias as Churchill in November and finding class relief after the WIDE trip losing ground behind the open length Special Weight winner last month. 

#6 DUXONTHEPOND makes her return in this spot after a pair of scratches last March at Santa Anita and additional vet scratch here from a $30k maiden claiming event here last month. She overall carries upside from her wide trip debut and following her works out in California from last year. 

This race has the set up of a "match race" between the two debut maiden winners landing here for their second start as the others have come up short at this level or lower in the past. #3 ROYAL TAKE CHARGE earned the higher figure in her November win at Churchill Downs though benefit from a FLOW-aided front running score to factor in that assigned speed figure. #2 NON VIOLENCE had to overcome adversity with a rough (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) start making a WIDE MOVE before going clear in a dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) win over this course last month.  

A case for #6 SHE'S GONE D'WILD can be made as the "horse to beat" as she will find significant class relief off her races this season along with back numbers that stack up strongly for this level. In addition, She hold a win at this very condition, surface/distance from back on 12/31/2020.

#3 LAKE MARIE has legit early speed she was unable to show in the Happy Ticket stakes give the higher level and legit stumble (TROUBLE_S) at the start. #2 G'S SQUEEZE also had trouble at the start on 12/1 though appears more "obvious" of the two recording a place finish (blanket for minors) in that race and given today's connections. 

#5 OMAHA RED could be sitting in the "cat bird seat" right behind #2 HIGHER STANDARD and #3 UPHOLD THE LAW, the two projected (Quad I Squares) pacesetters (and morning line favorites) for the right trip to win.

#6 BROKEN RIB fits as an individual as a contender showing up here for Amoss. He will find some class relief and better timing with the 37-day break (a change from the quick turnaround on 12/10 at Oaklawn Park) to run here. With that said, trip/pace is key as as one that can break slow and does not naturally possess early speed. 

#11 CUSHEE requires some racing luck to draw in off the AE though given a mention and follow from her 12/9 debut making a move against the flow and overall IMPROVE visuals. Similar luck for AE #9 BEAUTIFULNAVIGATOR one that has the benefit of recency and should move up with the return to TURF.

Recency could present the edge for #7 BEST PERFORMER making her second start back off the layoff from the WIDE trip last month. She returns to the turf, the surface placement for her debut in October at Keeneland where she recorded a sneaky good B- OptixGRADE effort in TRAFFIC despite the run line and finishing position. The strength of that October race has held up and a solid group for the level. That is noted as #2 AUDACIOUSNESS also returns from that event where she showed early pace and compromised with outside posts in both of her two turf starts.

Morning line favorite, #2 RISKTAKER fits logically off his current form finding class relief in this third start of the form cycle. He is positioned on the Plot as a Quad I Square suiting today's race dynamic and course profile. 

#3 LANDRY AND LUCAS could be looking and waiting for a faster main track after the "muddy" events at Delta Downs coming into this race along with a scratch here under similar conditions on 1/8 with the "sloppy" track conditions that afternoon. he has some back numbers to fit not far off Risktaker with a top effort. 

As far as others in this field; #8 IRON FORTUNE is the "wild card" returning from the layoff with the class drop and noted they showed some run in spots last year. #4 OAK HILL MO will find subtle class relief in this spot shipping in for a second start off the layoff and quick turnaround to run against statebred maiden claiming company.

Some progression race-to-race has been present on #10 MINE YOUR BIZ one that still requires a big move forward to compete today. Jessie Peterson will also send out #9 WILD FIST one that has pattern of gate issues and those issues have also been a constant pattern for longtime maiden, #6 DIGNIFIED AND KRAFTY so much so the poor start created a full EX - Excuse for them on 12/16. 

Tough to know the intent for #5 MR. CROMWELL one that should find public support based on the connections though is taking on older as three-year-old today while also giving up recency. There is also a published scratch from a Special Weight race last May at Louisiana Downs and they land here in for a tag not willing to give a chance to race protected could lack some confidence. #7 PARTY LITTLE BOY also will debut though as a older horse with some gaps in the works.