« 01/26/2023 01/28/2023 »
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri January 27th, 2023

Download as PDF

Emily's Analysis

Oaklawn Park Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Diodoro could have a strong presence on today's card and in the opening races. The barn will send out a pair in this event leading with #5 RED KNOBS holding a slight class edge along with a favorable running style for today's race. #6 FROSTED GRACE might not hold those same advantages, though stacks up with the others and should offer some value with races on his best day that stack up on par. 

#4 ANTIGRAVITY returns from the January 8th common race with an honest effort given the slow (SLOG) start and WIDE trip to finish third a contrast to the ground saving run for #3 ZOOMER finishing second; while #1 EASTSIDE COOL fell into a PERFECT trip to win.

#2 WINDCRACKER will be tested stepping up in class and stretching back out in distance and could be shorter than the morning line suggests coming off the recent finishing positions. 

Oaklawn Park Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

As noted in the opener, Diodoro sending out #6 PENETRATOR as the morning line favorite and logical in that role. He will make his first start off the claim and dropping in class from the higher level claiming race on December 17th with adversity impacting his outcome with contact (TROUBLE_S) at the start and making a WIDE MOVE, showing more run than the run line and finishing position may suggest. 

As far as #4 SHAKEDOWN STREET listed as the 5-2 second choice, he is suspect on value stepping up in class to take on winners wheeling back from a near perfect trip made possible through rider TACTIC+ with the ground saving run. 

Looking for some value; #7 DRIFTER returns to make his third start off the layoff on a progressive pattern and competitive (B- OptixGRADE) run with the fourth place effort on 12/17. #3 IMMORAL is on the softer side number wise, though could still hold upside as a lightly raced, younger runner making his second start back off the 243-day layoff projecting improvement wheeling back in two weeks for this race. 

Oaklawn Park Race 3

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 MR. TIP wheels back as the favorite for this race with class relief and off a slight excuse stumbling at the start (TROUBLE_S) and with the WIDE trip that compromised his chances to run his race on 12/30. The connections of #5 FIRST LINE were likely using the 1/20 race as a prep coming back off the 243-day layoff at the sprint distance. He returns with class relief here as well as the preferred route distance. 

#4 SPACE ODESSEY has some solid back numbers here at Oaklawn Park to suggest some intent for this spot and meet. They recorded a dominant win over a softer group back in September at Belterra Park and given plenty of time to recover since that race and also from a scratch back in November unable to draw into a $20k claiming race on the turf at H.S. Indy. 

Oaklawn Park Race 4

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 HELLORHIGHWATER was dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) winning on 12/11 and returning with the 47-day recovery here looking for back-to-back wins. While he did win on the lead (BOS) last month, he does not "need the lead" to win or run a top effort. #8 ZOFFA on the other hand requires a top effort and right trip (similar for #4 JINGLE), though on his best day could find both to compete here.

The analysis for the group returning from the common starter allowance races this season with #3 COLOSI finding the ideal ground saving trip to win on 12/17 taking over from #2 LEADER OF MEN and then #6 FLATOUT WINNER rebounding from that event to finish second on 1/13. The race shape could suit LEADER OF MEN today with his early speed though is one that requires a top effort and price compensation. 

Oaklawn Park Race 5

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Morning line favorite, #11 TRULY A ROCKET has some challenges in that role working out a winning trip from the outside post and with today's distance, a change going two turns this afternoon. Similar value concerns for #2 CHAI TEA with the distance change unproven at a route distance despite coming into this event with form this season.

The distance change stretching out for the first time is in play for #8 BLOW SUM SMOKE though based on her visuals/physicality she could benefit from the added ground and handle today's two turn distance. 

#4 C.C. HARBOR is proven around two turns and over today's course. She will require that foundation and a top effort, while logical, giving up some recency making her first start back in 124-days. #5 RIVERCREST GIRL is not far off her rivals number wise to compete in this race. While she is also returning from the 97-day layoff, she should have plenty of value to compensate given her recent running line prior to the layoff and the "colder" connections this meet that should see her dismissed by many in the public.

#1 MOCHA KISS has some similar distance/stamina concerns though given a mention with the morning line and recency on her side. That value might not stick (and is required) as she has some back numbers from last year that still show on the paper past performances that stick out in today's group. 

Oaklawn Park Race 6

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This maiden claiming event is for three-year-old and up fillies and mares with just one older runner #2 AMERICAN BAND in the field. The age could present an advantage here one she will require as she does not have an edge on class or speed over the others. With that said, her effort from 1/13 stacks up with the others here and did not have the most ideal (TACTIC-) ride on the day noting she returns with a rider and barn change here.

With American Band likely to go off as the favorite as the morning line suggests, value could land on #8 COLLECTED GLORY with a subtle class edge making her first start in for the maiden claiming tag. Number wise she fits right in line with American Band, keying off a pair of speed figures from last summer, numbers recorded as a juvenile that could still see her improve on today as she makes her sophomore debut. #5 THROUGH THE CRACK could hold an upgrade keying off her 77 OptixFIG from back in August as a juvenile, the highest recorded OptixFIG in the field. 

Improvement all around is required for #6 STEPONTHEFOOTFEET as she makes her second start today. The connections could have entered her against winners on 12/31 just looking to get her a race before the end of the juvenile season and the reason without much intent to win running against open, higher level Optional Claiming runners. As far as her effort, she was out run early though given credit as she did start to run on and show interest late. 

Oaklawn Park Race 7

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

There is a scenario for #3 ABSOLUTE COURAGE to hold a pace advantage forwardly placed given the complexion of the field and established run styles for many in this field. That edge would likely be required to win today as they have come up short at this level this season and will face some class droppers looking to move up on the class change. 

#6 STAND PROUD being one of those back at the $50k level from the Special Weight event here on 12/16. He has shown a tendency to break slow though to his credit ran a competitive race at the level back in September at Churchill Downs along with the solid CLOSE to finish third over this course and distance last month. He has that edge on recency over #1 DEPUTY CONNECT making his first start back off the 269-day layoff dropping in class with the pattern of slow (SLOG) starts as factors to weigh as he could be a shorter number in this race for Brad Cox. 

#8 JEDREK demands fair odds to play though has recency and form on his side showing up in this third start off the layoff. He ran a competitive race WIDE against the race dynamic (X_FLOW) on 12/18 and recorded a B- OptixGRADE racing in TRAFFIC to play a role in his 5th place finish on 1/7. 

Oaklawn Park Race 8

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The conditions of this race in terms of eligibility allow #1 MOZINGO as an Arkansas-bred filly to race in this event despite not running for a claiming tag in her races to date. That could suggest intent with the connections picking this spot to run her as she makes her seasonal/sophomore debut off the 203-day layoff. 

Recency could present an edge for #3 YOLANDA WHO, one that has been holding her form this year though requires a top effort and trip to win today. 

As far as the group of returning maiden win runners; #5 SUMMORYA projects to be the "shorter" of that group coming off the 12/31 Special Weight win. She recorded a solid 81 OptixFIG that fits on par/OFR, though did work HARD to win with the WIDE trip to get up late and wheels back in less than 30-days with a step up to take on open and winners here. Both #2 MS HAYLEY and #4 LUCKSME recorded open length wins breaking through the maiden conditions back in November at Churchill Downs. Ms Hayley recorded the higher figure though did not face a strong group and that could give an edge to Lucksme despite the lower figure and favorable front end (FLOW) win as the 11/11 race has been productive. 

Oaklawn Park Race 9

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This race could see a pair of shorter priced runners that would be no surprise winning this race dropping in class for capable connections. #3 SO IT WOULD SEEM wheels back in 12-days for Peter Miller and back in for the claiming tag. While those changes could move her up she has declined speed figures since the fall wins out West to factor in terms of value. #5 EMPIRE PASS will find considerable class relief back at the claiming level and lowest level she has faced in her career - a move that could come with reservations.

#6 CHASING SHADOWS has numbers that stack right up with that pair on her best day and could be sitting on a peak effort making her third start of the cycle. She recorded a solid effort with the late (CLOSE) run on 12/18 and claimed out of that race seemed to be "given" the 1/1 start wheeling back in two weeks with the class rise. She has been given a little more time, 26-days, for this race and intent with the drop to move forward and compete here. 

The change in class and timing could also benefit #1 STYLIN N PROFILIN. She will also make her third start off the layoff and moving forward in her cycle where a top effort is required from here. The visuals from the 12/17 race win at Remington Park suggested a REGRESS and that kept in mind along with the placement on 1/15. The connections ran her that day with the step up in class and race run around two turns just 12-days ago and capable of improvement as she returns to a sprint and lower level claiming event here.