| « 03/10/2023 | 03/12/2023 » |
Sat March 11th, 2023 |
Download as PDF |
Emily's Analysis
Oaklawn Park Race 1
#1 TWITTY CITY returns to claiming company and in terms of form cycle and intent to turn things around second off the claim. He was protected back on 2/19 and not asked (NO_PUSH) for run that day and noted as they return with a key rider change for this event. The pace scenario of this race should allow for a trip given his preferred RunStyle and Plot position.
In terms of the pace, #5 HIGHER AUTHORITY could have the edge of the pace setters though it is a tough read with the many in this field stretching out in distance and some of those runners carrying in early sprint speed. #7 LOOKIN HIGH is established around two turns with form this season. He will make his first start off the claim for Combs and more time between starts coming back from the off-track place finish last month.
Oaklawn Park Race 2
#2 IMPOVERISHED is logical in this race with the consistent figures and forwardly placed RunStyle as he returns to statebred company. With that said, he has come up short as the favorite already twice this season and does project to take some pace pressure from rival #4 HE'S RICH, these two from the 2/2 common race with HE'S RICH rested since; and #12 HARDSCRABBLE from that same common race going off as the second choice in the wagering behind IMPOVERISHED that day.
#10 CHALECO will make a belated return in this spot coming back from the 350-day layoff and the return will also be his first start in for the maiden claiming tag. As far as "firing fresh" he ran a solid race on debut last January, a B OptixGRADE and 71 OptixFIG - the type of repeat effort that has him right back in the mix with today's group.
Torres has the call on #1 PEPPERONIKID making his debut here for Prather, a barn that quietly has been sending out runners this season and can have horses "race ready" first out and comes into this event with a steady local worktab. There are some gaps in the published worktab for #7 BENJAMIN BUGSY, another first time starter and one that could find wagering support with the Moquett/Bejarano combination alone. #9 PROBATION ROYALTY could be overlooked for their connections, one that could have some run and intent here for Timothy Martin.
Oaklawn Park Race 3
This is a competitive race lacking any standout or edge among the runners in this group. Timing and intent could be the separator and for #2 SAMMIES SAMURAI in her second start back off the layoff with some subtle class relief returning in this spot. It must be noted she has yet to hit the wire first noting her maiden win by DQ last June at HS Indy.
Sammies Samurai shares a common run line with #5 PROUD FOOT going back to last May in a Special Weight race here at Oaklawn Park. Proud Foot follows a similar "second off" pattern with subtle class relief returning for Schultz and picking up Rosario.
#6 AMERICAN BAND could get attention alone off the connections though does show a vet scratch from 2/19 and number wise sits right on par with #7 CANDY CARAMEL just to her outside. #4 MS HAYLEY also has figures right in line with these two and returns for a tag in this spot as well as picking up Bejarano coming back from the 2/19 starter allowance WIDE trip.
Oaklawn Park Race 4
Many in this field will return from a common race back on February 11th, a race that has been productive with the winner, Punchbowl coming back to score against allowance company and the show finisher, Sacred Wish breaking her maiden on March 5th. #11 INTO LOVE was favored and going into that 2/11 race, noting her as a weaker favorite coming up short (NO_FINISH) in her prior starts and that same concern (similar for #10 FLYING BESSIE) returning here at perhaps another shorter number. From that common race, #3 SHESASMALLTOWNGIRL did not get a chance to run stumbling (TROUBLE_S) at the start and moving up early to try and recover before losing ground. Maker has had success this meet as he wheels her back for this race with a work since and making a change to Gaffalione.
#9 FEARLESS VIV will make her belated second start keying off the October 22nd debut, a race that has been very strong with runners coming out of that event improving their figures and including four next out Special Weight winners. Diodoro appeared to have her pointed to this Oaklawn meet though some slight setbacks in January delayed the return and she has been working forwardly since.
#6 SHE'S A ROCKET is in capable hands for Cox, though another with some slight gaps in the works (similar for #8 GOLD TICKET the other FTS) that should be considered.
Oaklawn Park Race 5
The pace scenario could be contentious enough for #12 TITLE SHOT to target and run at late. Price compensation is required on deeper closing runners and should be there today coming off the subtle trip (TACTIC- and picking up a rider change) and 5th place finish from 2/20.
#7 PEACEFUL STREET took a tough beat getting caught in a tight photo at the wire racing in the FOG and poor WEATHER conditions back on 2/26. With that said, he must hold form coming back in just 13-days and with today's projected race shape including the very quick #4 PHILO BEDDOE showing up here in his first start of the season.
#1 RED LABEL has some buried form and in terms of his RunStyle could look for first run while saving ground to sit the right trip under Bailey. #5 MEAN JAKEY has that similar RunStyle and had that ground SAVED tracking trip from the rail back on 1/7.
Oaklawn Park Race 6
This race follows a similar pattern to Race 4, with those in this field with the experience here this season leaving something to be desired and looking for a new face from that group.
#12 RUN POPPY is a new face though did start twice last summer while in the Asmussen barn and returns as a three-year-old now with Riley Mott. Going back to the races last summer there was some support by the public as they were favored in both races and given the time (layoff) and some subtle trips a case could be made we have not seen their best and there is more to show.
Asmussen does show up with a pair in this race including first time starter, #11 TEJAS. They could pop up as a new face and with Rosario aboard. As far as #1 KINGDOM they have the local experience from the debut back in January with a SLOG/TROUBLE_S and WIDE trip though overall must improve.
McPeek has a pair with both #2 QUALITY CHIC and #5 SOUTHERN SUNSET making a late run from off the pace in their first start, slight aided by the race flow for both.
#9 CLASSIC CUT appears live on debut for Cox given a steady series of local works for this race and with Geroux aboard.
Oaklawn Park Race 7
Ortiz scratched #1 BARBER ROAD from a similar N1X allowance event last week (3/3) to run here with some subtle changes from that race. While the condition and timing remain similar, the distance of this race might have been part of the decision with today's 9f compared to the mile last week. IN addition they will reunite with Gutierrez, a rider that was not available to ride here last week though in town today.
Rosario can often be a live rider for Asmussen and change the RunStyle of horses. That is noted with #3 CHILENO coming back today for his second start off the layoff and with Rosario taking back over keying off the times these two were paired and effective showing early speed and likely to be out forwardly placed here. His presence could make things tougher on fellow front runner #6 PAT'S PROPERTY, another runner scratched from the 3/3 allowance to run here instead. There are challenges outside of pace with the distance of this race combined with the lack of recency making a first start back in 254-days.
#9 BEN DIESEL has the benefit of recency and form coming into this race. While he has that form and consistency on his side he has come up short of a winning winner this season and would require a top effort and racing luck to win here. His class edge is noted and compared to others in this field that have been more effective as of late in starter allowance company and find today's event a step up in class.
Class wise is also a slight step up for #8 THE SKIPPER TOO though could be coming out of a productive race last month at Gulfstream Park and perhaps intent as he did run here at Oaklawn last season.
Oaklawn Park Race 8
#2 GAME KEEPER is cross entered in an allowance earlier in the race week and as he is given a look in that spot that carries should he run here as a horse that appears to have more to show.
In terms of improving types, #12 INTERLOCK EMPIRE has that going for him with progression race to race and compared to others with experience in this field, though still must show another move up today. McPeek will also wheel right back with #7 SEEKING UNITY one that has recorded higher figures of the two though still needed to show more overall with favorable trips in the pair of place finishes last month.
#1 NYQUICK will make his belated debut here for Brad Cox. He worked 10.1 last March at the sale as a juvenile and was in training though unable to get "race ready" for a start. From a physicality standpoint the mile distance should not be the main hurdle, giving up some fitness (gap in works from 2/19-3/5) and experience to others here requires overall quality to overcome.
Tougher to know what to expect from #4 GO CATS, homebred debuting here at Oaklawn and at a mile without local works. With that said, he has a steady string of drills and a live rider in Santana looking at the positives. His stablemate #9 DREAMBOAT has the benefit from experience and will ship in and stretch out for this second start and looking to improve after falling short as the wagering favorite. Overall the start could have been required and Dreamboat did break slow and race WIDE lacking (NO_LEAD) in that 2/5 sprint, a race that has produced two next out winners from the four that have run back.
Oaklawn Park Race 9
The combination of stretch out sprinter #7 HOT AND SULTRY and #2 LOVELY RIDE drawn inside benefit #5 INTERSTATEDAYDREAM with her potential "dream" trip. She prefers to track just off the pace and make first run, something she did not have going for her setting the pace in the Parx stakes to close out a shorter 2022 season. While trip is on her side, she does not have any softballs thrown her way with the depth and quality of this field.
Coming back off the layoff #1 SECRET OATH has been training consistently and appears pointed to this race for her return and here over a course and distance of success. #3 CLAIRERE also returns from the Distaff (G1) and strong effort in the BLANKET show finish and has been success since the switch to Rosario given an excuse to the Personal Ensign when smashing her head on the GATE.
#7 MOON SWAG is lighter number wise and in terms of class will be tested in today's company lines. With that said, she has developed as an older horse and and coming back off the layoff and from a sneaky good effort in the Lady's Classic (G3) last out. Number wise she does not look much different from #4 LE DA VIDA, one that has races here this season and come up short behind Lovely Ride and class today is a further step up.
Oaklawn Park Race 10
#3 BETTY'S CASH has some legit early speed and is drawn inside of the other potential pacesetters #5 MIDNIGHT TAXES and #12 MIRI A COINCIDENCE and could see that workload up front even lighter if #14 GOODNIGHT ARCHIE is unable to draw into this race. Just to his inside, #2 ALLO ENRY has some early speed though with the cutback and return to sprinting does prefer to track/stalk-and-pounce.
If you're wondering #4 WHERE'S RANDY been he has been working as of late and has some changes for this return coming back as a first time gelding. On his best day he has competitive races that fit with this group though does require a top effort and trip and gives up recency from the 336-day layoff with some gaps in the published works.
Recent maiden winners #9 WILLOW CREEK ROAD and #10 CHUPAPI MUNYAYO showed quality in their maiden win efforts and recorded solid speed figures with a class edge over other recent maiden winners in this field that broke their maiden at the claiming level. As far as their Special Weight wins, they both did break slow, the SLOG something of a pattern for Chupapi Munyayo doing so in both starts this season.

