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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun March 12th, 2023

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Emily's Analysis

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 DEORA STORE had some tough luck with the WEATHER conditions in the N3 claiming conditioned races here last December. His efforts were competitive (B- OptixGRADE) and included the BLANKET finish from back on December 2nd. #4 TAPIT SAM also has some buried form and coming back to Hawthorne for Reavis on the upswing portion of an “every other” pattern. 

As far as trip the pace should be Contentious (Fire) with honest (50 SpeedRate) pace given the complexion of this field - #3 PO BOY and #6 HINK’S PALADIN in Quad I around the ParLine and could be joined by #2 VALLEY VISTA depending on the rider tactics and his start, something that can be on the SLOG side at times. #5 SHACKLEFORD STRONG also has some tactical speed and coming in from Oaklawn Park will receive considerable class relief.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 MOM’S KINGDOM has had her share of setbacks getting to the racetrack and will return today for a belated second start. She debuted back on December 2nd a day that was WEATHER impacted by high winds and kickback. Mom’s Kingdom was part of the early pace (X_FLOW) upgraded with the race shape and winner from off the pace. #3 JEMEZ FALLS also debuted in that event (12/2) and impacted by the WEATHER in her effort taking KICKBACK came back on December 31st with an improved second start. 

#2 PRADA’S MIRACLE ran against open company all last year and will land her in her first start against statebred company. That class change is significant and should move her up in today’s race. The time off, 105-day layoff, is noted in this case not only with the drop but also the spotty published worktab. By contrast #5 PRETTY IN PRADO has a steady series of works throughout February for Boyce and will find a class change in her own right returning to statebred company, though a first start against IL-bred while also in for the claiming tag.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

DiVito will ship back to Hawthorne with #5 ELI’S PROMISE and with a big drop in class. While a drop like this can come with concerns, in this case it appears they are placing this one where he fits as he has not progressed and has been racing above his head and overmatched in the races this year. He does project to take pace pressure with #6 K C’S FIRST B M W in this field, a runner that has legit early speed and can be tough on the lead. #4 THE LAST FACT also has some early speed though can rate and drawn inside that pair could sit just off them looking for first run. 

#2 TOM’S LAST GENERAL could be looked at as “turf horse” as he comes back today off the layoff to the main track, though he has some buried form on the dirt that fits on par for this race and could get the trip with the Contention noted above. In addition, he could offer value with the surface switch and possibly in comparison to #3 KEEP ATTACKING with a similar RunStyle.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 LORRAINE’S LEGACY appears “obvious” in this spot though as one that has been favored in each of her three starts that does not appear as anything new. She might just catch the right group today though has lacked any strong excuse to this point including a PERFECT trip (despite the WEATHER) on December 16th. Number wise #7 SUFFICE could be the biggest threat and another looking for redemption as a beaten favorite. The surface switch is an unknown as she will shift to the main track for the first time, though it is worth noting that before she debuted back in November 2021 she was entered Main-Track-Only in October at Belmont.

In addition to Suffice, Reed will send out #3 HURRY UP CHIC CHIC one that does carry the benefit of recency in this second start off the layoff over the others coming off the bench. Statebred runners #2 JOYZILLA and #1 LIL CARRIE D land in this spot and while JOYZILLA had the edge of the two much of last year, LIL CARRIE D visually gave the impression of one that would appreciate added ground and once she had the route opportunity back in December she broke slow and unable to overcome the trip racing in the snow/WEATHER.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Looking at the OptixPLOT with the “Fire” Contention and more than half of the field positioned to the left of the y-axis there is a scenario for #3 IRISH MAJOR to close from off the pace. He is not the horse to look to as the “best horse in the race” though should be compensated in odds for the scenario he could get the trip. #5 KRAMDEN is more “logical” of the two with similar ability to get the trip and as an individual has run “faster” race and proven over this course/distance and with a win at this level back on December 2nd. Perez will also run #6 WILLING TO SPEED here, another runner that has a win at this condition from back on May 5th of last year and the barn scratch him from a similar conditioned race at 5f on March 5th (opening day) to run in this spot instead. #7 BEHAVIN MYSELF can be kept on the radar with a favorable Plot position and form over today's course and distance. A race could be required returning from the break and trip is still key for this individual as well as the start with some gate issues in his past. 

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This is a tricky event given the higher allowance class level with the runners in this field and combining pace and the layoffs. The nature of this race could see #5 YO PUEDO overlooked coming in off the layoff with numbers and class that fit on par and still holding upside as a lightly raced runner. 

Looking at the Plot, #1 FIRST KITTEN could present a pace advantage, though the “red” PlotFit must be respected as well as the “Fire” Contention she is a part of when assessing value come post time as she has come up short at this level in the past. #9 STORMY EMPIRE is also tough to overlook on the Plot though has the similar class challenges as a statebred runner and intent as she returns today off the 71-day layoff despite being capable at her best. #2 ICY RIVER is also going to be class tested though has some efforts and RunStyle that could also fit this shorter distance for top connections.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Vanden Berg returns with a pair in this race and Emigh picking up the call on #2 FIGHT ON as they come back off the layoff. Fight On will look to get back to top form and finds a similar spot to when they looked to come back in November from the 178-day layoff. The WEATHER conditions were less than ideal with snow and very cold temperatures and the trip as shown the Past 3 Runlines were of no assistance. As far as #5 FOLLOW THE SIGNS he will find a slight class rise from his recent races though does have some recency on his side and a scenario looking at the Plot where he could get the right trip stalking off a potential Contentious (Fire Quad I) pace. 

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Rivelli ships in with #1 GOLDEN HORNET and wheeling right back in two weeks from the show finish on the Rebel Stakes undercard at Oaklawn Park. He has the class, figures and holding his form to fit with this field as a contender. With that said, he must hold his form back on short rest and there is a scenario where he is made to work on the front end with the other EP RunStyle horses and “Fire” Contention.

On the opposite end, #3 KHOZAN’S VALENTINE will be looking to run on late and close late as a Quad IV Square with the P RunStyle to look for a slight upset. The RunStyle and position is noted here for #2 MALPAIS as he also has been able to run from off the pace (Standard Quad IV Square) though that closing run has been more effective for him on the turf than on the main track and accounted for with the shift in position on Surface/Distance. 

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 6:06 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 BE MY BESTIE is one of a group of four-year-old fillies in this field and could present the upside of that “older” group as she returns here in a belated second start. She made her debut last April and was favored that day for the connections. There was no real strong excuse in terms of trip though she did take some contact (TROUBLE_S) and perhaps that played a role and also must consider the layoff that followed. 

#3 DOMINIQUE was also favorite in her debut back in December and will return in this spot for a second start. Class wise is a lateral move despite running in against open company Special Weight that day as that race was restricted to juveniles and returns against older. The same test will be in play for the show finisher from that December 30th race #9 TU ROYAL also returning here. 

#1 AIR GERRI will also make her return here to take on older, though presents some upside overall. She made her debut against open company and then showed run while GREEN and taking KICKBACK in the Debutante Stakes. #6 CANTOO has established form though overall lacked any strong progression last season and has that to still prove here in order to win. 

#2 FROSTED ÉCLAIR is also worth a mention as one of the other four-year-old runners in this group and one that showed some early speed in her first two starts. She also showed the tendency to break slow and forced to RUSH into that early position losing ground in both events and must show a better break and finishing (Circle) ability.

Oaklawn Park Race 1

Post Time 12:35 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 LAMUTANAATTY projects to be a heavy favorite and running back to the 3/4 return they have form to compete in this race. With that said, they lack a strong edge over others coming with their top efforts and Lamutanaatty must hold their form on the quick turnaround coming off the long layoff, not an easy or given ask. 

#3 OTTOMAN EMPIRE was compromised by the ride (TACTIC-) on 2/17 as well as the class level. While on paper today's event is a lateral move, the change in race par makes today's event a softer overall race and can move up on that alone. #6 SALTA also can benefit from the class change and progressive form carrying some upside as a three-year-old in their third start off the layoff. 

Oaklawn Park Race 2

Post Time 1:07 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 STAND PROUD is logical off their current form, figures and subtle trips this season placed back in at the maiden claiming level. 

#7 VIGANO has some upside and form that is buried as they return in this race. Figure wise they fit and should be sitting on a top effort in this second start off the layoff (PREP, STRETCH, DROP - OptixNOTES from 3/3) and with a similar second off pattern that saw them improve their number going back to March of last year. 

#8 LIL BRO COOP has come up short at this level with out excuse and even aided by race shapes at times with the TROUBLE- last out nothing of impact to final result. #1 MAGNIFICUS also holds back numbers to compete from last sprint including a BTL/B OptixGRADE effort on 4/30. They create their own issues as far as trip with the pattern of SLOG and must be considered. 

Oaklawn Park Race 3

Post Time 1:43 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 FAST LANE should have no excuse today. They stand out number wise dropping to the lowest level of their career with the connections likely making that change to get a win. 

#5 THE STEELMAN will make a belated return and first start of this meet, which has been the intention by trainer Kenny Smith. This will be their first start back since November 26th, a day with poor WEATHER conditions at Remington Park requiring the races to be cancelled after the fourth race that day. 

#3 PIKACHU is one that is tough to project improvement at this point, but the pace scenario does project to be honest/contentious (Fire), a scenario to assist his late run.

Oaklawn Park Race 4

Post Time 2:17 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The pace has a Contentious element (Fire) though does not appear to be necessarily overly fast. That is noted for #1 MARK THE MOOSE as they should have pace to close into and upgraded with that scenario, however value still must be assessed with this type of closer and given the morning line where some compensation is required though could drift up from the 5-2 ML assignment. Current form coming into this race is not as strong for #7 MORNING DRIVE though another closer in today race mentioned with the race shape. 

As far as the morning line favorite, #6 MY NOAH they are tough to knock in this spot as a fit all around and coming back off a less than ideal trip on 2/10 in the show finish. 

As far as the early pace, their former stablemate #3 GOLDEN LUNA should be joined by #8 MIRI A COINCIDENCE as well as the Deville pair of #4 THE FIVE B'S and #5 TALK TO TOKEY.

Oaklawn Park Race 5

Post Time 2:47 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Based on current form #10 KRUSIN ROCKET makes sense as the assigned morning line favorite, it is tough to make a similar case for #4 RIDGEPOINT ROAD, one that has not shown as much in his races this season and lacks an edge (value) over the others in this field. 

#7 COLONEL BARTON has shown run in spots this season and will cut back to a sprint on the quick turnaround exiting the route event where they set a Very Fast early pace for the class and distance before losing ground. A similar "flow upgrade" can be #2 LOUD BOY exiting a Very Fast early pace route race back on 2/24. #3 WORK ALL DAY scratched from a higher $40k maiden claiming event on Friday to run here and remain sprinting where they could move up and return to the 1/21 effort and from the 2/04 DELAY race where Work All Day was also very fractious in the GATE. 

Oaklawn Park Race 6

Post Time 3:18 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This is a competitive event and one that is tough to justify the morning line number on #8 SLIM MAN in this field. The same value concerns with #2 CONSPIRACY FACT coming back off the N2 win when upgraded that day as one of two (those two finishing in the exacta) class droppers in the field that stood out over the others in that 2/17 field. 

#1 RECKER POINT will race above condition here at the N3 level, though form wise fits with this group - value required. 

#5 NOTARY projects to show improvement coming back fresh from the 1/22 race where the SLOG and TRAFFIC TROUBLE compromised their run and still finished up with a strong CLOSE. 

#6 TEXAS RED HOT looked to require more ground when they made their return last month in a sprint and will have the added ground to work with today. Distance wise #9 JOLLY TOMMY could be put to his max here though has some form that fits on his best day though will require the right trip as well 

Oaklawn Park Race 6

Post Time 3:18 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This is a competitive event and one that is tough to justify the morning line number on #8 SLIM MAN in this field. The same value concerns with #2 CONSPIRACY FACT coming back off the N2 win when upgraded that day as one of two (those two finishing in the exacta) class droppers in the field that stood out over the others in that 2/17 field. 

#7 RED RUN requires some value and could be shorter than the morning line suggests returning from the layoff for these connections and back stakes form. The value is required both giving up recency and the class drop coming back off the layoff as well. 

#1 RECKER POINT will race above condition here at the N3 level, though form wise fits with this group - value required. 

#5 NOTARY projects to show improvement coming back fresh from the 1/22 race where the SLOG and TRAFFIC TROUBLE compromised their run and still finished up with a strong CLOSE. 

#6 TEXAS RED HOT looked to require more ground when they made their return last month in a sprint and will have the added ground to work with today. Distance wise #9 JOLLY TOMMY could be put to his max here though has some form that fits on his best day though will require the right trip as well 

Oaklawn Park Race 7

Post Time 3:50 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

With both #3 JACKMAN and #6 DARK TIMBER showing their "best" form sitting on the top of their pp's, that could create some value in this race for others with similar form that is sitting under the surface. 

#9 AMERICAN PURE returns to the starter allowance condition for the first time since their dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) win back in November. #7 STAGE LEFT will ship in for Jacobson, a barn that has struggled here this season though this runner fits with this group and could be a positive sign running here for the purses with this horse also remaining protected. #1 ULTIMATE also could cycle back to a top effort. They ran their "top" back on 1/6 and showed regression in the two following starts and come back with a slight refresh and class relief. 

Oaklawn Park Race 8

Post Time 4:22 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

DeVaux had #3 SHOTGUN HOTTIE entered as "MTO" in the Al Stall Memorial Stakes and in an Optional Claiming event at the Fair Grounds with this race also in mind for the return. Placement appears reasonable today to spot her where she can compete and gain some confidence starting off the four-year-old season. 

#1 ICE ORCHID has the benefit of local form and consistent figures to compete in this allowance race and with today's group. Form for #2 LISETTE is tougher to get a read as she has spent a lot of her career placed over her head, though on her best day stacks right up with many in this field. 

Oaklawn Park Race 9

Post Time 4:54 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The $60k maiden claiming condition is different and this suggests a middle ground for connections that do not necessarily want to run their horse for a tag for whatever reason though at the same time need to be realistic with the stock they have. That intention should upgrade the runners exiting the Special Weight races this season. 

#9 GOIN TO THE SHOW with the distance cutback and running as one of the few older horses in this group. #8 AMERICA TOUGH was not handled (TACTIC-) in the type of manner that they needed to compete first out and will ship in for live connections with improvement potential. #7 CROSSING is another that is tough to make a case when looking at the run lines and finishing positions alone, though can be upgraded from the 1/27 race against (X_FLOW) and with the positive distance change/SHORTER.

#10 SWAGGISH will also drop in for a tag though must improve overall and has lost ground late without excuse. #12 KUPP ran on of the stronger figures in this field back on 1/28 and a repeat of that race fits here. They have shown a pattern of gate issues (SLOG) that must be at the least noted and expected. 

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun March 12th, 2023

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Full Card

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

Can make a case for and against 5-SHACKELFORD STRONG. The case against includes no wins since 2021, the sharp drop in class, and the recent terrible form. The case for includes the sharp drop in class and the fact that his last race was contested on an off track and he was racing with blinkers for the first time. The blinkers come off for today’s race but it does look like we’ll have some rain. Still, I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt. 1-DEORA STORE is generally competitive when racing against this type of rival. He was in decent form when the last meet ended and should have stayed fit with a couple of strong five furlong drills the last couple weeks. 4-TAPIT SAM wasn’t competitive in his first start at this condition but speed figures suggest he ran his typical race. Speed figures also suggest that his typical race would make him one of the faster members of this field. He has had previous local success. Should be a major player.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

1-MOM’S KINGDOM gets a small nod. She ran competitively here at this level in her lone start in early December and has continued to train well during the break. Not sure she’s necessarily quicker than her rivals but the cut back to five furlongs certainly helps her chances. 2-PRADA’S MIRACLE drops from open maiden specials. She’s also turning back in distance. She showed little in her only previous sprint but this is an easier field. Should make an impact. 5-PRETTY IN PRADO turns back in distance for her first start of the year. She narrowly lost, going long, in her final start of 2022 and she’s been training well all along. She’ll never be far back despite the turn back in distance. Could out finish them all.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

Interesting drop by 5-ELI’S PROMISE. He hasn’t shown much since a good second-place finish here in September but he has been meeting far better. It’s only surprising they didn’t drop him to this level where he had been racing in Arkansas. He would have surely been claimed. But, the drop will surely make him competitive here and he might still get claimed. 4-THE LAST FACT moves up in class but he was in good form when the fall meet ended and his speed figures suggest he’s among the fastest of these. Love the great works during the break. Looks ready for these. Wish 3-KEEP ATTACKING had more workouts but he might be the best closer in this speed-filled field. Will be coming late.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

6-LORRAINE’S LEGACY has been training well toward her first start of the year. She was favored in all three of her races and did manage to finish second in her last two. Meet some interesting newcomers in this spot but still seems poised to get the job done. 7-SUFFICE might be meeting her easiest field ever. She sports some lofty speed figures but all of her previous starts were on the lawn. She really didn’t run well in any of them despite a strong turf pedigree but she must certainly be considered with her switch to dirt. 3-HURRY UP CHIC CHIC, stablemate of Suffice, has been racing competitively in Ohio. She owns good speed which most of her rivals seem to lack. She could gain control early and never look back.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

7-BEHAVIN MYSELF is only a slim pick. But he ran well here in the past, he had a tune up versus better in Ohio, and he had a pair of useful drills since his most recent race. 5-KRAMDEN didn’t show much in his two starts since getting claimed by this barn but he is another who has race well here in the past and he could return to form in his Hawthorne return, especially with the drop in class. 1-MY GUITAR makes his first start for this barn. He’s been in decent form while meeting Louisiana breds. His speed figures suggest he fits well with these.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

2-ICY RIVER, fresh off the claim, makes her local debut. She had little success in previous forays into allowance company but those fields seem like they were far tougher than this one. Her barn does well with their first-time claims. Expecting her to be in chase mode early but guessing she’ll run by in midstretch. 9-STORMY EMPIRE was in good form most of last meet but managed to win only one time despite facing easier most of the time. On the other hand, she was generally competitive. Pair of good drill should have her race ready for her first start of the meet. 1-FIRST KITTEN could hold the speed advantage. Should be dead fit since she’s been racing continuously during the break. Might not get caught.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

Wide-open race. However, with so many front runners in here I decided to find a runner capable of coming from off the pace. I landed on 1-MOVE ON OVER. He’s not a typical closer but he has shown that he can relax and save his best for the stretch run. 8-JACK VAN BERG might turn out to be the best of the speed. He was meeting tougher when the last meet ended. Had two bullet drills since getting ready for the start of this meet. Might put the rest of the front runners away. 5-FOLLOW THE SIGNS is another capable of coming on late. Stablemate of probable favorite Fight On, he could have dead aim on the front runners late.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

Great race. Going to give a slight edge to 1-GOLDEN HORNET. He’s been racing competitively versus tougher at Oaklawn. He has shown the tendency to run out of gas late but the cut back to five furlongs should be just what the doctor ordered. 8-BIG SPORT jumps in class but this gelding LOVES this track. He won 10 of his 18 starts here; mostly on the lead but he has shown the ability to come from off the pace. His speed figures compare favorably with those of any in here. Could be good enough. 2-MALPAIS, on any given day, is as good as any in here and he could be even better, especially if we have an “off” track. He thrives in slop. Don’t ignore.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 6:06 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman

3-DOMINIQUE finished behind some of these in her lone start and her recent drills seem a bit slow but she did manage to pass half the field in that one race. Runners from her barn usually improve with experience. She went off as the favorite in her debut. She could be more of a price in this one. 6-CANTOO ran well in four of her five starts. She finished second in last, beating some of these rivals. Would not surprise to see her in the winner’s circle. 8-WILDWOOD TRIPLE has been training well for her career debut. Runners from her barn come out ready to run. 

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun March 12th, 2023

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Shackleford Strong 4 Tapit Sam 1 Deora Store

Trying to determine a pace scenario for the opener as there isn't a ton in her in regards to early speed. With the class edge and the ability to show speed, have to think that 5-SHACKLEFORD STRONG will be sent for the top and look to wire this field.  He made just two starts in 2022 before returning to Oaklawn this winter. He did flash early foot in each race before giving way but both came against much better company. With the class relief, along with fitness and distance, I expect he can clear in here and never look back. 4-TAPIT SAM ran well during the fall meet before grabbing the N2L condition at Turfway on February 3. He has found the board in all three starts at the distance but is likely to need some early pace to chase in here. 1-DEORA STORE ran well in a pair of starts at this level last fall before holding his own while stepping up against allowance company in his final start of the meet. He's another though that needs pace to chase and may not find a ton of it in here. Two good works toward the return are a plus but he may be looking as a slightly better play underneath in the gimmicks.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Jemez Falls 1 Mom's Kingdom 2 Prada's Miracle

Despite the shorter field this is a good, competitive race with all six in with a shot. Looks back at the replays, I really liked the effort in the final start of the fall meet from 3-JEMEZ FALLS. That race was only her second career start as she faced open-company. She steadied early in the race and dropped briefly to the back. I like how she split horses first into the turn and again at the top of the lane. She raced a bit greenly in the stretch before running on late. Three works coming into here along with the potential for a decent amount of early pace in the race could benefit her chances. 1-MOM'S KINGDOM looks to show speed from the rail as she picks up Mojica for this start. She has worked consistently through the winter following that start and should benefit from the two horses just to her outside unlikely to show much early speed. 2-PRADA'S MIRACLE shortens back up following three routes during the fall meet. Her two races on the grass were decent but her final race of the meet was a bit disappointing. Turf may turn out to be her likely destination but she's fit coming into her as it is worth giving her a look on the class drop.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 K C's First B M W 5 Eli's Promise 4 The Last Fact

All of the pace is to the outside in here as the combination of Tracy and Centeno looks to team up once again after winning last weekend. 6-K C'S FIRST B M W has had mixed results in his last five, due to some gate issues. He stumbled and lost the rider in a start last June then followed that effort with a maiden score. He was declared a non-starter in his August 11 start as he was completely unprepared as the gates sprung, with the rider climbing off as the gates opened up. Clear sailing for him in a pair of Hawthorne races in the fall have been followed by three good works. He doesn't need the lead to win but won't be too far back either. 5-ELI'S PROMISE has a massive class edge over this field but that could be a deterrent as well as he takes this big class drop into today's spot. Have to expect he will be winging early from the gate but after a second place effort here last September for AOC $62,500 to be in for $12,500 just three races later leaves some concern. 4-THE LAST FACT is another Kirby that appears fit and ready heading into this spot. He ran well in his final two starts of the fall meet, posting a maiden score before running well against winners. I don't think he's fast enough to make the lead in here but the potential for a good stalking trip is very possible.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Suffice 2 Joyzella 3 Hurry Up Chic Chic

There's only a couple with pace potential in here and the key for 7-SUFFICE to have any chance of winning is that Hurry Up Chic Chic and Lorraine's Legacy both run. If only one of those two remain in this race they can easily steal it. If both do run, Suffice should be sitting on a big race as she makes her first start off a bit of a layoff. She has made all three starts on the grass but is working well toward the return. Look for her to settle back early and come running in the lane. 2-JOYZELLA could be a bit of a sleeper as she goes two turns for the first time. She is bred to run all day and put forth a pair of respectable races against stakes company last fall. Two works toward the return as she's another that is going to need that pace upfront to close into. 3-HURRY UP CHIC CHIC can be a major player in a couple of ways in here. She has the potential to shake loose early and try to possibly wire this field if she clears Lorraine's Legacy. If those two hook up early, it may set things up for the other Reed trainee Suffice to get the job done.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Kramden 1 My Guitar 7 Behavin Myself

I like seeing 5-KRAMDEN make a return to Hawthorne after being claimed here last fall. He didn't seem to take to the surface at Mahoning Valley but that can be a deeper, more tiring strip. He won at this level over the track last December with a good stalking trip. The pace shouldn't be overly quick early but I also don't expect Kramden to be more than a couple of lengths off the early leaders. 1-MY GUITAR will be sitting a bit further back early as he comes in off a pair of decent races in New Orleans. He should save ground the entire way and may have enough late kick to contend nearing the wire. Curious as to what kind of trip we see out of 7-BEHAVIN MYSELF as it would appear his best races come when he is on the front end. He rated in his two most recent races and just wasn't able to contend late. If he can get away well in here and outkick Troy Ounce to the front, he has the potential to steal this race.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 First Kitten 2 Icy River 9 Stormy Empire

This is a really tough race to figure as there is no standout by any means. Have to hope 1-FIRST KITTEN can get away well from the inside as she possesses the potential to clear early and possibly wire this field. She has been solid in all of her main track starts at Hawthorne and comes in fit off three Mahoning Valley starts. Centeno is a fit for her as the distance today may suit her nicely. 2-ICY RIVER has some tactical speed as she has run well at this distance throughout her career. She was claimed for $15k out of her last race as she rallied late for the score. Expect her to settle a bit further back her early but she should come running late. Fitness is no issue either as she has worked consistently throughout the winter. 9-STORMY EMPIRE has had a lot of Hawthorne success, finding the board in 16 of 27 races over the track. She has tactical speed and crushed a state-bred allowance field in the mud last December. She has two works toward the return but I worry that the five furlongs won't give her enough time to get up.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Golden Hornet - 9-5 3 Khozan's Valentine - 5-1 8 Big Sport - 7-2

I watched the race out of 1-GOLDEN HORNET a couple of weeks ago and felt that he made a good showing in that spot in Arkansas. That field was a strong bunch and while this is a talented group it isn't quite what he faced in that spot. He is very fast early and figures to beat Big Sport to the top but if those two duke it out early we may not see either of them in the lane. 3-KHOZAN'S VALENTINE has to hope for that pace battle upfront as he figures to sit back early and look to rally in the lane. He often races into trouble which is some concern as gate issues seem to be his biggest issue. The lack of a string of workouts coming into this spot leave some concern as well. 8-BIG SPORT was the king of the starter race all last year, hitting the board in every Hawthorne start last season. He has 10 wins over the track and is fast early but doesn't have nearly the speed of Golden Hornet. What is interesting is that he was supposedly headed to retirement following his victory on December 31 but an apparent change of heart finds him back at the races once again.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 6:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Dominique 8 Wildwood Triple 6 Cantoo

Well regarded on debut, 3-DOMINIQUE was sent away as the 2-1 choice despite drawing the 12 hole and facing open company. She took some time to load in that spot and got away a step slowly. After getting into the race, she made a steady advance through the lane to get up for fourth. She has three works toward her return, draws better in here and has every right to improve in her second start out. 8-WILDWOOD TRIPLE debuts with Lasix as she has worked well coming into this spot. Becker often does well at first asking with his young horses but make sure to keep an eye on this one in the paddock to make sure she behaves leading into the race. 6-CANTOO has posted solid efforts in four of her five career races, two of those coming against stakes company. She has some tactical speed as she figures to settle in the second flight early and come running in the lane.

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun March 12th, 2023

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Shackleford Strong - 5/2 1 Deora Store - 4/1 4 Tapit Sam - 7/2

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Mom's Kingdom - 7/2 2 Prada's Miracle - 5/2 5 Pretty in Prado - 5/1

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Eli's Promise - 8/5 4 The Last Fact - 5/2 3 Keep Attacking - 10/1

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Lorraine's Legacy - 5/2 7 Suffice - 8/5 3 Hurry Up Chic Chic - 4/1

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
7 Behavin Myself - 3/1 5 Kramden - 5/2 1 My Guitar - 7/2

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Icy River - 7/2 9 Stormy Empire - 3/1 1 First Kitten - 6/1

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Move On Over - 6/1 8 Jack Van Berg - 8/1 5 Follow the Signs - 7/2

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Golden Hornet - 9/5 8 Big Sport - 7/2 2 Malpais - 6/1

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 6:06 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 Dominique - 7/2 6 Cantoo - 6/1 8 Wildwood Triple - 9/2