Handicapper Tips & Picks

Logically #4 COMMERCE COMET makes sense as the favorite off the two races in this field and over stablemate #5 INTO IT coming out of the same common race back on 1/28.

Value (and upside) could be in play for #1 STORMIN ARMY another returning from that same 1/28 common race and has since had the benefit of fitness exiting in 2/25 route race and back number from his juvenile debut. 

#2 SOYBEAN MAN is given a mention while the time off since his debut back on 12/31 is not encouraging that race as a whole has come up productive. 

#7 SWEETNESS TO has enough buried form to keep the number square coming back in this spot. She returns in her third start back off the layoff remaining in statebred claiming company and with a rider change to Borel with the potential for further intent. 

#4 K J'S PISTOL ANNIE fits as a logical type returning to the statebred claiming level. The timing and barn change could also find #5 SHE'S HAMAZING back to her top form for Gonzalez.

Cline will send out the pair where #2 COURAGEOUS CAPPEN has been her most competitive when in for a tag. She remains at the claiming level today for her first start in against winners and while the effort from 3/9 fits with this group she will be tested to hold that form against winners and on the quick turnaround. Her stablemate #3 MISS DUTTON has the pattern of slow/SLOG starts to often run from off the pace though on her best day, those efforts stack up with many in this field. 

#4 GO ON projects to get a lot of attention in here with the significant class drop showing up on this circuit for Diodoro. That drop can often come with concerns and current form from GO ON does not present a strong edge, though form that is in line with this claiming level. 

#1 PRIMER DIMER has some buried form to move and compete here coming back from the WIDE trip on 2/4 and ride/TACTIC- on 3/2. #5 MULBERRY STREET comes into this race with progressive form in the third start off the layoff and off a TACTIC- trip last month. 

Deep closer #9 GEORGIA DEPUTY needs a lot of racing luck and pace to compete though does have some form this season that could be overlooked off what appears on paper including a BTL run back on 1/8. 

Broberg shows up here with the pair of #6 ESPIONAGE and #9 OCELOT where a case can be made for either in this race and price at post time could serve as the separator. 

#5 PRINCIPE GUILHERME was reclaimed by Asmussen, a barn familiar with this runner that had him to start off his race horse career and an interesting claim and timing coming back today that could see him return to top form - form that makes him a contender. 

#2 CARL G is another with buried form that makes him competitive. That buried form includes some early speed keying off a BOS place finish at this level, surface/distance here last season. 

#4 DISTORTED SECRETS has struggled this season, though could be showing signs of improvement and coming into this race at the right time to improve and step up while under the radar.

#2 LEGENDARY GIFT just makes the cutoff (September 19th) to run in this race with her eligibility starting with the win on August 8th. This will be her second start with Schultz, a live barn also bringing her back to a sprint. 

#1 KEWPIE DOLL could also be in the right timing for a top effort in this second start off the layoff (WIDE trip 2/24) and with back numbers on par over this course/distance. 

#6 JUMPIN JUDY has shown legit early speed in her races that makes her a threat on the front end with the complexion of this field. At the same time, she has shown a lack of finish (granted setting fast paces) as something to still consider overall and could open the race to one of the lesser exposed runners. 

#4 PLUS POWER returns to make a second start where she broke slow/SLOG in her 2/10 debut. #5 PINK ACE was scheduled to debut last week (3/10) for the $20k maiden claiming tag with McPeek (trainer scr) picking this spot instead. 

The expected Contentious/Honest (Sun/43 SpeedRate) pace upgrades #3 MYSTIC NIGHT in this dynamic. As an individual he has back numbers that make him competitive in his own right at this level and progress form coming into this race for the third start of the form cycle. 

#5 BACKGROUND has been ridden closer to the pace in his races this season. He is capable of winning with that trip though is not a need the lead and could benefit from his foundation, fitness in this event under regular rider, Bowen.

The pace is noted as #4 FROSTED GRACE is expected to be up close the lead early (along with #2 THOMAS SHELBY) and expected to be favored as well. Form cycle also comes into play wheeling back for this spot after two top efforts that could see regression. Regression was a slight concern for #1 KAPUNA after the pair of efforts earlier this season, though the 49-days rest since those two return races could provide the necessary rest/recovery to hold his form here. 

#2 TEJANO TWIST is capable in this spot though carries the combination of an expected short number on a deep closer, a risky combination. 

Asmussen shows up with a pair and would not be surprised if #9 COGBURN ends up shorter than the ML and even favored as he form, figures has been consistent throughout and coming back from the win last month. The number should stay in the double-digit for stablemate #10 MORELLO one that has some buried form, especially form at one turn and could present a move forward in his second start off the layoff and from a subtle trip and run on 2/17. 

#6 BAYTOWN BEAR is a legitimate longshot in this race though given a mention on that alone as a horse that on his best day stacks up with most of this field and has held his own against tough company and graded stakes runners. 

Video analysis for the Essex Stakes can be found on the Hawthorne YouTube channel link and time stamp here --- https://www.youtube.com/live/gKZhaQxNzD8?feature=share&t=2628

Morning line favorite, #4 HAYTHERE JOGEEGIRL is respected coming off a solid BTL effort (B- OptixGRADE/72 OptixFIG) though has shown a pattern of gate (SLOG, VSLOG, TROUBLES+) issues that must be factored into value. Also returning from that 2/18 common race, #11 MAGNOLIA MAE one of the pacesetters that did record a top for that race and number in lone with others from that race that could sit high and create value on others in this group such as but not limited to...

#3 KOKOMO STARLET showed legit early speed in her first two starts with the rider trying a different TACTIC- trying to rate on 2/19 and likely to return to that assertive nature here off that effort along with the addition of blinkers. 

#2 RUNNINTHESTREETS will make her first start back off the long layoff though did show progression and Special Weight form last year that fits the condition. 

#8 GOLD STRATEGY is deserving of a mention with progressive form, figures and returning from back-to-back WIDE/X_WIDE trips.